Usually, it requires years for a one-day race to be regarded as a classic but one race has made the jump into the elite of one-day races almost from its very beginning. The Strade Bianche with its iconic white gravel roads has all the ingredients of a unique race and is already regarded as one of the most prestigious one-day races despite this year's only being the 8th edition. With its gravel roads, many hills, and very steep finish, it is one of the rare races to attract cobbled specialists, Ardennes riders, and grand tour stars and all are in with a chance on one of the most exciting courses of the entire cycling calendar.

 

The idea is so obvious that the real surprise is that it took so long time for anyone to turn it into reality. The many historic gravel roads in the Siena area and the rolling nature of the terrain with its many short, steep climbs invite themselves as the scene of a great bike race but it wasn't until 2008 that Giro organizers RCS Sport decided to put on a major race in the area. Inspired by a big event for recreational cyclists, they hosted the inaugural event of the Strade Bianche in the autumn of 2007 when Alexandr Kolobnev beat Marcus Ljungqvist to become the first winner of what would soon become a new classic, then known as Monte Piaschi Eroica.

 

RCS did nothing to hide that their real ambition was to turn the race into somewhat of an Italian edition of Paris-Roubaix and this made it tempting to move the race from its original autumn date to the spring. The move was made for the second edition and the organizers could not have wished a better outcome. Major classics stars Alessandro Ballan and Fabian Cancellara battled it out in an exciting battle, with the latter coming away with the win, and a few weeks later the duo were again at the forefront when they fought against Tom Boonen on the Roubaix velodrome.

 

That race may have given the impression that the race was one for the riders that excel on the cobbles but the race is a much more diverse affair and truly unique. Part of the race may take place of gravel roads but the other significant features are the many short, very steep climbs. Many are on gravel roads which makes it harder for the tiny climbers to raise from the saddle but it doesn't change the fact that steepness of the climbs and the combined level of climbing make the race suitable for Ardennes specialists and grand tour contenders too. And the race finishes on the very steep climb to the Piazza del Campo in Siena which just turns the race even more into the hands of the riders that excel whenever the road points upwards.

 

To realize how diverse the race is, one only has to take a look at the winners list. After Cancellara's and Ballan's battle in 2008, it was a stage race rider like Thomas Löfkvist who powered clear of Ardennes specialist Fabian Wegmann, Martin Elmiger and Edvald Boasson who both thrive on the cobbles, to win the 2010 edition, with the top 10 even containing stage race riders like Andy Schleck and Ryder Hesjedal. One year later it was Ardennes rider Maxim Iglinskiy who held off Löfkvist, Michael Rogers, Filippo Pozzato, and Ryder Hesjedal to form a top 5 that is hard to imagine in any other race. In 2011 - Philippe Gilbert's magical year - the race was of course just one of many to be won by the then Lotto captain as he held off Ballan, Damiano Cunego, Jure Kocjan and Cancellara on the uphill finishing straight while  Cancellara took a dominant solo win in 2012.

 

It is this kind of versatility that makes the race exciting and open to many possible scenarios. It may end in a sprint from a small group on the uphill finishing straight, suiting the punchy climbers, or a rider like Cancellara may use his raw power on the gravel roads to power clear for a solo win. In the Strade Bianche, almost any kind of rider - with sprinters and pure climbers being notable exceptions - can come to the fore and riders go up against rivals that they rarely face in their key objectives.

 

The race may be a unique one that has attracted an interest from most of the biggest riders and teams and it may already have taken an important position on the calendar. Compared to the biggest classics, however, it remains a preparation event. No one goes into the season targeting Strade Bianche as a key objective and it is mainly a key testing event for the Tirreno-Adriatico and Milan-Sanremo that everybody would love to win but nobody would be devastated to lose. For a race to enter the real elite of cycling's one-day races, it needs a long history that the Strade Bianche doesn't have.

 

That doesn't take anything away from the excitement of the race and with the addition of the Roma Maxima which takes place in an equally stunning scenery with a finish in the centre of Rome, RCS Sport now offers a high-level, prestigious doubleheader that has attracted the interest from almost the entire field of ProTeams. This weekend will offer some stunning scenes and some very unique racing when the riders test their conditions for the later classics in Italy.

 

Last year's race was a truly exciting battle between Fabian Cancellara and Peter Sagan where the defending champion launched repeated attacks but was unable to get away from the faster Slovakian. When a small group of favourites gathered and everybody looked at Sagan whom nobody wanted to sprint against, Sagan's Cannondale teammate Moreno Moser exploited the situation to ride away and catch the remnants of the early breakaway in time for the final climb to the finish to start. With nobody wanting to draw Sagan all the way to the line, Moser held off to take the biggest one-day win of his career while Sagan dutifully beat Rinaldo Nocentini and Cancellara in the final sprint to make it a Cannondale 1-2. Ag2r and Nocentini haven't received an invitation for this year's event but Moser, Sagan, and Cancellara will all be back to fight it on the gravel roads near Siena.

 

The course

Despite its short history, organizers RCS Sport have already found a rather fixed format for their race and even though there are a few changes compared to last year's race, the race should not be too different from what we have become used to.

 

The start of the race has been moved from the traditional site in Gaiole di Chianti to San Gimignano, meaning that the race has been made slightly longer, from 188km to 200km. The number of gravel sectors has gone up from 8 to 10 but the number of kilometres of uneven surface has been reduced from 57.2 to 45.4. Despite this, the fact that four of the sections come in quick succession has convinced race director Mauro Vegni that this year's edition will be harder than the previous one.

 

There is not much flat terrain in the Siena area which is characterized by rolling hills and steep climbs. Right from the beginning in San Gimigniano, the riders hit a small 5km ascent and from there they pass through rolling terrain as they head in a southeasterly direction to get into the area with the gravel roads. The racing is likely to be very aggressive at this point as team tactics play a key role in a race like this, making it important that the early break has the right composition.

 

The riders hit the first gravel section at the 32.1km mark but this is one of the easiest and comes at a point that can be described as the flattest of the entire race. At 2.2km, it is not overly long either and there is a long way to go until the riders hit the next section, meaning that it is unlikely to play too much of a role.

 

The early break is likely to have been established by the time things kick off in earnest. That happens after 48.5km of racing when the riders start a stretch with four gravel sections that come in quick succession and make little room for recovery

 

The first one is only 2.1km and rather flat but it gets serious on the third one which is 5.9km and takes the riders up a steep climb and halfway down its descent. Only 6.2km of paved roads follow before its time for another undulating, 4.4km section. After another 6.2km of paved roads, it is time for a long, flat 5.5km gravel section.

 

The riders have covered 84km by the time they finish the 5th section and the first selection is likely to have been made. The early white roads are all located too early to  be the scene of any major attacks but they can be used to set a hard pace that will make the race hard and send riders out the back door.

 

The riders now do 36.5km of paved roads but they are by no means easy as they include the biggest climb of the day that takes the riders up to 456m of altitude. Another three short, steep climbs follow and from now on, it is almost up or down all the way to the finish in Siena.

 

At the 120.5km mark, the riders reach a very long 9.2km section of gravel roads. It is predominantly downhill and followed by 17.3km of paved roads, meaning that it is unlikely to make much of a difference.

 

At this point, however, the battle is about to kick off in earnest and the battle for position will be intense when the riders approach the key section of the day which comes with 53km to go. At 11.5km, the Monte Sante Marie section is the longest of the race and it is the only with a five star difficulty racing. The section includes several short steep climbs and this is likely to be the scene of the first major attacks.

 

At the end of the section, a small group of favourites is likely to have formed and now it is time for the different groups to organize themselves and initiate a chase. It depends on the composition and the level of cooperation how much regrouping will take place but from now on the race will be a true elimination race.

 

The 13.9km of paved roads that follow are rather easy but precede the final three gravel sectors that are all short but contain steep climbs that are the perfect launch pads for the final attacks. The first one is just 800m long, starts 27.7km from the finish and is almost all uphill.

 

19.35km from the finish, the riders hit the 2.4km penultimate sector. It is uphill all the way but after a short 10% stretch with a 15% maximum in the beginning, the gradients are rather easy at 3-4%. At the end, 3.9km of slightly descending and ascending paved roads follow before it is time for the Le Tolfe section which is where the final selection can be made.

 

The section is just 1.2km long but after a short descent, its second half consists of a brutal climb with a gradient of 11.4% and a maximum of 18%. This is where Fabian Cancellara has often put in his best attacks and the front group has splintered to pieces.

 

At the end of the section, 12.05km remain and even though they are almost all up or down, there are no steep climbs or difficult descents. Depending on the race situation, this makes it possible for some regrouping to take place but will also open the door for late attacks. At this point, no team is likely to have strength in numbers and this could open the door for a sneaky move in a hectic finale like Moser did it last year.

 

The finale is rather technical as the riders go through two hairpin bends on the slight downhill section between the 4km and 2km to go marks. They turn left 1.7km from the finish and then head along slightly ascending, straight roads until they pass the gate and the pave section that lead them onto the steep climb that will bring them to the finish on the beautiful Piazza del Campo.

 

At the end of a 200km race, the 800m climb is a real leg breaker and even though the average gradient is only around 6.5%, it has a very steep 16% section at the bottom. The riders will do a sharp right-hand turn just after the steepest part as they head up the iconic and beautiful road in the historic city.

 

300m from the line they do a sharp left-hand turn and from there it is downhill to the finish. The road is very narrow and bends slightly to the right before the final sharp right-hand turn. This downhill section is extremely technical and the real sprint will take place before the final corner as there is no way to pass each other on the final short stretch to the finish.

 

Several different scenarios are possible but most often a small group of favourites arrive at the bottom of the final climb and then it is all decided in a final brutal sprint up the slopes and a fierce battle for position for the final corner. The final climb is so hard that one rider usually arrives at the finish on his own but as Cancellara has proved, it is also possible to escape on your own much earlier in the race. One thing is certain: Only a select group of the strongest riders will remain in contention by the time the riders reach the Piazza del Campo in Siena.

 

 

 

The weather

Last year's winter was truly brutal, with several cancellations of races taking place at this time of the season. This year things have been completely reversed as most races have had splendid conditions and this will again be the case for tomorrow's race in Italy.

 

The weather plays a huge role when it comes to riding on gravel roads. Everyone will remember the iconic images of a muddy Cadel Evans winning the sprint to win that famous stage on the Strade Bianche in the 2010 Giro d'Italia. In rainy conditions, it becomes much hard to raise from the saddle on the gravel, and this turns the race more into the hands of the heavy riders than the light ones.

 

The Strade Bianche has mostly been taking place in dry conditions and this will again be the case in 2014. It will be a beautiful day with bright sunshine and the temperature will be rather constant at around 14 degrees for most of the race.

 

Usually, the wind doesn't play too much of a role in Italy but things could be different for tomorrow's race. It will be a rather windy day, with the breeze coming from a northeasterly direction. This means that the riders will have a crosswind for almost the entire race, turning into more of a cross-tailwind near the end. After the final gravel sector, the riders will do a small loop around the city of Siena where they will mostly have a tailwind but they will turn into a headwind for the final 1.8km of the race.

 

The favourites

To pick favourites for the Strade Bianche is a rather unique experience as it involves considering names that usually don't feature at the top of the list in the same race. On one hand, the many steep climbs and the very tough finish appeal to the climbers. On the other hand, the gravel roads make it difficult for the lighter riders to benefit maximally from their climbing prowess while the heavier riders can benefit from their ability to power up a steep slope while sitting in the saddle.

 

Of course the gravel roads mean that luck play a certain role in the race. Just recall how Peter Sagan lost all chances due to an untimely puncture when he debuted in the race in 2012. Barring accident, however, the strongest riders will always come to the fore in this kind of race and it will be a gradual elimination until only the best are left.

 

This year the wind may play an important role as the crosswinds will make it possible for a strong team to make the race even more selective. This is certainly an advantage for the classics riders. On the other hand, the climbers will relish the fact that the roads are dry, making it easier for them to tackle the gravel roads. As the race is hard but not extremely selective, team tactics will also come into play as Moser's 2013 win illustrated in the most obvious way.

 

Last year the strongest rider in the race was Peter Sagan and this year the Slovakian will again be the man to beat. He may only have won one race so far this season and his sprinting certainly hasn't been at the expected the level but this doesn't change the fact that his climbing has been excellent right from the start of the year.

 

Sagan was a protagonist on the queen stage of the Dubai Tour but the real test of his skills came when he stayed with the strongest climbers on the tough fourth stage of the Tour of Oman before escaping on the descent to take the win. He may have benefited from a headwind but it was a clear improvement compared to last year. He skipped yesterday's GP Camaiore which he won 12 months ago, and has made the Strade Bianche his first real target of the year.

 

Sagan is tailor-made for the Strade Bianche course. As he proved in last year's Tirreno-Adriatico and in last year's edition of this race, he is virtually impossible to drop on this kind of short, steep climbs and he is benefited by the gravel roads that suit him much better than they do for the pure climbers. No one can beat him in the kind of uphill sprint that ends the race and due to his excellent technical skills, he even benefits from the many turns on the slight descent to the line. Last year he only lost the race due to team tactics and it seems that only this aspect and bad luck may deny him the win. With Moser and the addition of previous podium finisher Oscar Gatto, he can expect to have excellent support in the finale and the team can both ride aggressively as they did last year or keep things together for a sprint for their Slovakian captain. That kind of strength makes Sagan and Cannondale the ones to beat.

 

Only one rider has the power to drop Sagan in this terrain. Last year Fabian Cancellara tried repeatedly to get rid of the Slovakian and he managed to drop everybody but the Cannondale captain. This year Cancellara will again try to use his raw power on the final difficult gravel sectors and he will be hopeful that he can come away with his third win in the race.

 

Cancellara has not shown overly good condition so far but this is not unusual. He is never at his best in the Middle East races and always shows the first signs of condition in Strade Bianche. For the Swiss, this is a very important test and he will be eager to measure himself against Sagan. When he is at his best, he has the power to get rid of the Slovakian as he proved on the Paterberg in the Tour of Flanders and even though the cobbles suit him better than the gravel roads, he can do so again tomorrow.

 

However, Sagan will know to mark Cancellara closely and the Swiss will not be allowed to go clear in the finale unless he is the strongest rider in the race. He may be fast but against Sagan he has no chance in the sprint and so his only chance to win the race is to ride away from everybody else on the final gravel sectors.

 

Last year Alejandro Valverde got his first taste of the gravel roads but his first participation in the Strade Bianche was not a huge success. This year he will be back and there is no doubt that he will go all out for a good result as the next few weeks will be all about preparing for the Tour de France by doing a few races on the cobbles in Belgium.

 

No one can deny that Valverde has been in excellent condition right from the start and there is probably no rider who has shown better form in the early season. As an Ardennes specialist, Valverde loves the hilly nature of the course but due to his weight it may be difficult for him to keep up with the likes of Sagan and Cancellara on the gravel climbs. If he remains in contention after the final sector, however, he is perfectly suited to the finish and he is the rider that can potentially beat Sagan on the final climb to the Piazza del Campo.

 

The Strade Bianche requires great versatility and this makes it a perfect fit for the rider who is probably more versatile than any other. Michal Kwiatkowski masters it all. He can time trial, he can climb in the highest mountains, he has finished in the top 5 in the Ardennes, and last year he was a key protagonist on the cobbles in the Tour of Flanders.

 

This year he has been in excellent condition and has clearly taken a step up compared to last year. He was the strongest rider in the hardest race of the Challenge Mallorca and he dominated the Volta ao Algarve by winning two stages. He may be a tiny guy but as he has excelled on the cobbles in the past, he should have no trouble handling the gravel roads.

 

Kwiatkowski has the further advantage that he is very fast in a sprint and a technically very astute rider, making him perfectly suited to the finish in Siena. It may be difficult to beat Sagan, however, and so his strongest weapon may be his aggressive nature. The Pole could easily use any war between Sagan and Cancellara to his advantage if he takes off on his own in the end. With his excellent time trialing skills, he will be very hard to get back.

 

After his excellent showing in yesterday's GP Camaiore, Diego Ulissi is naturally one of the favourites for this race. As an Ardennes specialist with a fast sprint, especially in uphill finishes, he is a natural fit for this race. His main disadvantage has been the very long races as he still needs to prove that he can perform when the distances are more than 200km but that won't be a problem tomorrow.

 

Ulissi is a tiny guy who still needs to show that he can handle the gravel roads and this will be his greatest challenge. At the same time, he is probably not strong enough to drop Sagan and he is not fast enough to beat him in a sprint either. Hence, he has to come up with a plan in the finale but as part of a strong team that also includes Filippo Pozzato and Damiano Cunego, he could easily have options in a tactical finale.

 

Kwiatkowski is not the only rider that Omega Pharma-Quick Step can count on on the strade bianche. Rigoberto Uran has shown excellent condition from the start of his time with his new team when he finished 3rd in the Tour of Oman. His punchy nature makes him suited to this kind of course and he will love to play his cards in the uphill finish.

 

We are a bit uncertain about his ability to handle the gravel roads as he has no previous experience but his level of form will take him far. If Omega Pharma-Quick Step have both Uran and Kwiatkowski in a select group of favourites in the end, they certainly have cards to play in the tactical battle

 

One rider who has already proved that he can win on the strade bianche, is Cadel Evans. Most cycling fans will remember his excellent showing in the 2010 Giro and he is naturally one of the favourites for this kind of punchy races.

 

Evans got his season off to a great start in Australia where he indicated that he may be about to return to his best form but since returning to Europe, he has sent mixed signals. He was great in the Tour du Haut-Var where he finished in the top 5 but he appeared to be struggling in last weekend's two hilly one-day races.

 

That makes his performance in tomorrow's race a bit uncertain but no one can rule out the wily Australian. He is gearing up for the Tirreno and will use the race as an important test. He may have a decent sprint in this kind of finish but will have no chance against Sagan. However, he will know when to launch the right attack in a hectic finale.

 

Last year's winner Moreno Moser has almost shown no signs of the brilliance that allowed him to take the win 12 months ago and he had to put a premature end to his season due to fatigue. He hasn't been great in 2014 either but he claims to be very satisfied with his condition for his title defence.

 

Moser has all the characteristics on this kind of course but he will always be second in the hierarchy behind Sagan. That is no major disadvantage, however, as he proved when he won last year's race. Moser is unlikely to be the strongest rider in the race but if he has the form to be there in the finale, Cannondale may again send him up the road and this could give him another win in the race.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo line up an in-form Roman Kreuziger who by Tejay van Garderen was reported as being one of the strongest guys in the Tour of Oman. He has done well in this race in the past as he was 6th in the 2012 edition while working for teammate Maxim Iglinskiy.

 

Compared to the pure climbers, he should be stronger on the gravel roads. On the other hand, he lacks the sprint that will allow him to excel in the uphill finish. There is little doubt that he has the form to be there at the end but he will need to ride aggressively to come away with the win.

 

Finally, we will point to Filippo Pozzato. Due to illness, the Italian had a disastrous spring campaign in 2013 but in the autumn he showed signs that he may return to his best. He won the GP Plouay and did an excellent Worlds road race on a course that should have been too hard for him.

 

This year he rode solidly in the Dubai Tour but since then he has been training at altitude. This makes his level of form a bit uncertain but if he comes out of the camp in good condition, he is a real dark horse. As a former podium finisher in Flanders, he has the power to excel on this kind of gravel climbs and even though the final climb may be a bit too step to his liking, he is a fast finisher. His main asset, however, is his strong team. If Lampre-Merida have strength in numbers in the finale, they may send riders up the road and then Pozzato will be a good bet to come away with the win.

 

***** Peter Sagan

**** Fabian Cancellara, Alejandro Valverde

*** Michal Kwiatkowski, Diego Ulissi, Rigoberto Uran

** Cadel Evans, Moreno Moser, Roman Kreuziger, Filippo Pozzato

* Mauro Finetto, Riccardo Zoidl, Oscar Gatto, Luca Paolini, Samuel Sanchez