Paris-Roubaix is the third Monument of the cycling season and is notoriously difficult to control. This article will look at how several teams will aim to do so and set up their leaders to win the Hell of the North.
Trek have defending champion and hot favourite Fabian Cancellara. He is a man on a mission in order to win a record-equalling fourth Roubaix title and become the first person to do the Triple Double- win Flanders and Roubaix in the same season three times. He was supposed to have his strongest squad ever this year but Stijn Devolder is out of the race and has been replaced by Boy van Poppel. Hayden Roulston is off form, Gregory Rast is recovering from illness and Yaroslav Popovych had a bad crash at Flanders last weekend so may not be as effective as he usually is. This leaves van Poppel, who has finished the race once, Jasper Stuyven, who is a neo-pro, Jesse Sergent, who does not usually finish the races and does a lot of work early in the race and Markel Irizar. This may leave Cancellara with no support in the finale and make it very difficult for him to win in 2014 but if anyone can win solo its Cancellara.
Omega Pharma-Quick Step are desperate for a win today to salvage their Classics campaign and as usual, they have the strongest squad in the race. Niki Terpstra was third last year and is in great form despite fading in Flanders and finishing 6th. Stijn Vandenbergh is strong just now and was 4th in Flanders but he will need to attack and win solo as he has a virtually invisible sprint. Tom Boonen is very fast and always does well in Roubaix but has not been on form recently and he is probably not going to be able to follow all of the moves under pressure. Zdenek Stybar was so strong last year and would probably have won the race had he not been forced to unclip to avoid a spectator. He will probably be OPQS best option as he is strong and on form but is quick in a sprint. On the day, it will be either Terpstra or Stybar who are given the main role as leader but as always, OPQS have various cards to play depending on the race situation.
BMC have less of an outright leader than last week as Greg van Avermaet is less suited to the cobbles of roubaix then those of Fanders. He was fourth last year and has a decent sprint but was beaten by Cancellara last week and by Terpstra last year. He will have to once again attack to try and get a win as he is not strong enough to go with the big men on the Cobbles. Taylor Phinney is comfortbale on these cobbles and will be given a free reign. He was 15th last year despite working for van Avermaet and is twice a winner of the U23 race. His time trialling abilities have led many to declare him a future winner of the race and it will be interesting to see how he goes. Thor Hushovd will not lead the team this year and will be a domestique but should a big group go to the line, he is one of the fastest men in the race.
Garmin bring a team of experienced riders to the race that they won in 2011. They have the 2011 winner Johan von Summeren but he had a crash in Flanders that effected him both mentally and physically and he has not been anywhere near his best form since 2011 so is a real long shot for voctory. He will need to do what he did in 2011 and attack early but his status as a previous winner may prevent him from doing so. Sebastian Langeveld is in the same boat as he was really good last year but was not good enough to go with Canellara and Stybar. He has to attack early but may find it difficult but if he waits for too long, any chance of victory he has will quickly disappear. But they are known as one of the best teams for tactics and if anyone can mastermind a victory, it is DS Andreas Klier and the rest of his staff at Garmin-Sharp.
Belkin arrive with a strong team that includes Maarten Wynants and Maarten Tjallingi, third in 2011. Lars Boom co-leads but his form is not where it has been in past years and it is hard to see him in the top 10 let alone winning. This may turn Boom into a very useful asset for Sep Vanmarcke. He was second last year and will look to go one better this time round as he is in the form of his life. He may need to attack Cancellara once the final selection is made as fater his last two monument sprint defeats to the Swiss, he may lack confidence. But Vanmarcke is very strong and is probably going to be the second strongest man in the race and with boom and co. there to help him Vanmarcke has a real chance to right his wrongs of 2013 and take a big win at last.
Sky have a team full of Classics hard men but none are reall out and out favourites to take the race. Ian Stannard is injured and as usual, Bernie Eisel and Gabriel Rasch and Christian Knees are the helpers. Edvald Boasson Hagen is the teams leader but has never been particuarly good at this race, with his best finish to date being 42nd in 2012. But he is powerful and fast and on form so a win may not be beyond him. Geraint Thomas is on form but claims to be working as a domestique but if things dont go to plan, he may be rirding for himself. Bradley Wiggins is the real unknown. He is very strong but is not great at positioning himself. The peloton has been split on whether or not they think he can do well at Paris-Roubaix but his Flanders shows that on the Cobbles he can do a good ride.
Katusha have Aleksander Kristoff, one of the most inform men in cycling. He won Milan-Sanremo and was a superb fifth in Flanders as well as winning the bunch sprint in Sanremo, Flanders and Roubaix last year. He may not be able to follow the moves over the cobbles but almost 99% of the peloton have no chance of beating him in a sprint as he is so fast so no one will want to take him to the line and they will want to drop him and then ensure he will not get back on. Luca Paolini is a veteran classics specialist who is also quick. He has not got a good record of making the final selection in Roubaox though and will probably find himself working for Kristoff but he, like his teammate would be a very dangerous rider to take to the finishing line as he showed in the 2012 Omloop. Both men probably need an early attack or a really slow race in order to win the race tomorrow.
FDJ and AG2R will be desperate to end the 17 year wait for a home winner of Paris-Roubaix. FDJ are the oddball Classics team. They have four good riders but Johan Lebon, Mathieu Ladagnous and Yoann Offredo have been nowhere to be seen this Spring so far but on their day they are capable of a really strong ride. Arnaud Demare is very young but he will lead the team in Roubaix. He was second in Gent-Wevelgem and has a fast finish but in the big Monuments in 2014, so far he has not showed himself well. He will not be able to follow the movesover the hard sections but his speed means that he too is a very fast finisher and can get a good placing in a small group sprint. FDJ will need to be at their best to win and they will have to hope that all of their riders finally come good to help Demare or ride for themsleves.
AG2R made two very good signings when they picked up Damien Gaudin and Sebastian Turgot from Europcar. Turgot was second in 2012 and 10th last yeat while Gaudin was fifth last year. Both are very powerful and aggressive and will go on the attack in order to anticiapte the big favourites and they are just small enough names to be allowed to do it but just good enough on the Cobbles to stay away and win, much like Johan van Summeren did for Garmin in 2011. They are both good friends and will willingly sacrifice themsleves for each other during the race and this means that they could be exceptionally dangerous in the race if they are given any space and time by the peloton but if they arrive ina group of more than 3, they are not great sprinters so would most likely lose out there.
Paris-Roubaix is harsh in both conditons and pace and there are many factors that can prevent even the strongest riders from winning the race. Should all go to plan, the question many people are asking is this: Can anyone stop Trek and Fabian Cancellara from making history in the Roubaix Velodrome?
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