Today is Milan-Sanremo, the first Monument of the year. We will look at how the key teams for today’s race will look to animate it in order to set up their leaders for the win and what tactics they will use. There are a few teams who arrive in Milan with a designated leader, such as Trek and MTN-Qhubeka. Other teams such as BMC and Sky arrive with a few cards to play depending on the hand La Primavera deals them.
Cannondale have the favourite for today’s race in the Slovakian superstar Peter Sagan. However, the team suffered a blow when Moreno Moser was ruled out of today’s race as he would have played a key role in aiding Sagan but more importantly he could of followed potentially dangerous attacks in order to let Sagan save himself for the finish. Moser would also have been Cannondale’s back up leader should Sagan uncharacteristically falter. Cannondale will be expected to do a lot of the work today and will want to set a furious tempo on the climbs in order to shed Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel. Should they fail to do so, Sagan will find it more difficult to win but the Slovakian may prefer to not wait for a sprint and attack over the Cipressa or Poggio and try to win from a breakaway.
Omega Pharma-Quick Step have Mark Cavendish, who won the 2009 edition and he was ninth last year on a much more difficult course. They will be riding for a bunch finish, as Cavendish it the fastest man in tomorrow’s peloton, and the OPQS roster is packed with men who could do a good leadout after 294km. they have Renshaw, Trentin, Petacchi and Keisse in the team. Bakelants will follow the early moves and Kwiatkowski will go with the big moves over the penultimate climbs as he is quick enough to challenge Sagan in a sprint but he may be fresh enough to win himself due to the fact that he will do no work in the attack as he will prefer to see the race come back together for team leader Cavendish. Stybar looks in good shape but will probaly ride to save himself for the Cobbles, but will help Cavendish when possible and he is ver quick and could win from a group sprint, much like Kwiatkowski. He showed his pace when he outsprinted Philippe Gilbert to take a Vuelta stage last year. OPQS still have the strongest team in the race even without Tom Boonen but the Belgian star will be missed tomorrow.
Trek Factory Racing will be one of the teams riding with an obvious leader today: Fabian Cancellara. The Swiss star cannot afford to wait for a sprint and will need to attack, most likely on the final climb of the Poggio. In the last few years, he has been the man who has driven attacks clear on the Poggio but he has developed a bad habit of being bitten in the sprint for victory, when he was third last year and second the year before. But Cancellara won the race in 2008, making him the last man to do so on tomorrow’s course and anything is possible with the Swiss on the attack. The tem will certainly miss fast finishing Giaccomo Nizzolo, who would have been very handy on this finish due to his ability to climb.
Team Sky has a few options for tommorrow’s race. Geraint Thomas is clearly in form after Paris-Nice but he may not have recovered enough after his crash and the race may just be a bit too flat for his liking and he may work for others and save himself for the Cobbles. But Edavald Boasson Hagen and Ben Swift are both fast finishers who could win from reduced groups. Sky will not be forced to do an awful lot of work but they may have to help, as they have no chance of winning if they take Greipel and Cavendish to the line tomorrow. Ian Stannard will be missed as he could have covered moves in the final, but the decision to rest him may prove crucial in the Cobbled Classics later this year.
Orica Greenedge were dealt a huge blow when Simon Gerrans was ruled out of today’s race due to a fever. He is one of the peloton’s smartest riders and is very fast, as he proved when he won the race in 2012 and again when he beat Sagan to take a stage in last year’s Tour de France. Michael Matthews will lead the team and he is even faster than Gerrans and climbed superbly in Paris-Nice and will be a favourite, but he lacks experience and guile at this level which could prevent him from taking the win. But his victories in last year’s Vuelta show he can win big races and even Cavendish and Greipel would be wary of dragging the 22 year old to the line. Simon Clarke will have a much freer role and he will follow all late attacks.
Giant-Shimano opted to take John Degenkolb to the race over Marcel Kittel and this may prove a good decision as Kittel climbed dreadfully in Tirreno-Adriatico whereas Degenkolb went like a dream in Paris-Nice. He has many good lead out men and is very fast but whether Geschke, De Kort and co. can hang in over the hilly final and have enough left to deliver the 6 times Grand Tour stage winner to the line in unkown. Should they do it, Degenkolb is fast enough to take the race ina sprint but there is no dount that Giant will have to help Cannondale in order to shed the big names and make Degenkolb’s chances of winning even higher.
Lotto Belisol have a very strong team including men like Hansen, Sieberg, Vanendert and Roelandts but there is no doubt that they are riding for a bunch sprint for Andre Greipel. The big German has been hot from the start of the season and is quick enough to beat both Sagan and Cavendish in the sprint. Should the sprint not be an option, Tony Gallopin of France will have his first chance in a Monument to show his class and he will do a role similar to that of Kwiatkowski and follow the attacks late on and then do no work and if the opportunity comes, he is quick enough to sprint and win for himself.
Lampre-Merida brings with it one of the best squads and has former winner Filippo Pozzato to call on. But he will not lead the team. That honour falls to Sacha Modolo, a man who has won a few races already this year and was fast enough to outsprint Cavendish to take a stage of the 2012 Giro. He is an excellent climber and will have a good chance of victory tomorrow. Diego Ulissi, the King of Italian one day races will do his best to light up the race but it is probably too flat for him and his form has not looked so good in Strade Bianche and Tirreno-Adriatico but he is an outside bet if the race is super fast up the climbs. World Champion Rui Costa is the team's biggest star and he will be a miss.
IAM cycling has three very good options for the race. Matteo Pelucchi won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico in a bunch kick where he beat Sagan. But if the climbs are raced aggressively, there is a good chance he will be dropped. Should he make it to the finish, he can get a top 5 if not the win. Heinrich Haussler is quick as he showed when he was second to Cavendish in 2009. He has won bunch sprints in his career and can last the distance. He will certainly be a man to watch as a dark horse and will want to get revenge at the race that was so close to changing his reputation from "Neraly Man" to "Monument Winner". He hasn't been going particularly well this year but always seems to pull out the stops on the big day and has podiumed Flanders in 2009 as well as top tens in both Flanders and Roubaix last year. Sylvain Chavanel always performs well in Milan-Sanremo and was unlucky to come away empty handed from Paris-Nice after a really aggressive showing. He is not a very fast sprinter and will need to win from a reduced breakaway going over the Poggio. The only question is, can IAM protect him as well as OPQS did last year?
FDJ have Arnaud Demare and Arthur Vichot in good shape for today’s race. Demare is very fast and can last over the long days, as shown in Flanders when he was eleventh. He is a man to watch in a sprint. Arthur Vichot headlines a list of men who are very good in the Classics and he was fast enough to outsprint JJ Rojas in the final stage of Paris-Nice to finish third. He will cover all moves on the climbs. FDJ can call on other men such as Le Bon, Ladagnous and Offredo who, when on their day, could do at least a top ten ride here. Expect FDJ to hide their strength and only show themselves in the last 50km, where we will find out which option they are going for.
BMC have a wealth of riders to choose from for tomorrow’s race. Taylor Phinney is out due to illness, but Philippe Gilbert has openly stated he wants to win the race despite admitting the change to the 2008 route is less favourable to his punchy style. Greg van Avermaet was second in Het Nieuwsblad and will hope to carry on his early season Classics form into the race here. He was quiet in Paris-Nice but when he was seen, he was climbing well and it would not be surprise to see one of the peloton’s most consistent riders come up with another good result for his team here. Thor Hushovd has podiumed on this course before but he is now 36 and is not even close to his old sprinting level. He showed signs of a return last year at Beijing and Poland but his from in 2014 is virtually unknown. He is still fast but will probably play a captain role and find himself working for van Avermaet and Gilbert. BMC will want to make the climbs as hard as possible and they will certainly lend the teams of the outright favourites a hand in making the pace as high as possible. Should they succeed, they have a superb chance of winning.
Finally, we come to the team of defending champ Gerald Ciolek. MTN-Qhubeka will want to remain anonymous and Ciolek will probably be left to his own devices in the finale to follow wheels. But he did the same and look where that got him. He is very fast and a strong climber. He doesn’t lack confidence and he has won in Andalucía already this year. His biggest disadvantage is that he no longer has the element of surprise. But his teammate Kristian Sbaragli does. He has quietly been getting top tens at Tirreno-Adriatico this year and could be a good shout for a result as he is more of a pure sprinter than Ciolek. MTN expect big things from themselves and it is quite possible they can do a very good ride to defend their title.
Should the race come to a bunch kick, it should be Cavendish versus Greipel with the rest fighting for the final podium place. If a bunch kick is not the result, or the two big sprinters don’t make it into the bunch for the sprint, anyone could win Milan-Sanremo. That makes it very interesting. And lets be honest, who would want La Primavera any other way?
Nico CLAESSENS 39 years | today |
Anthony SAUX 33 years | today |
Brian LIGNEEL 33 years | today |
Heinrich BERGER 39 years | today |
Sara CASASOLA 25 years | today |
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