All was set for a battle between the teams in the opening team time trial but a late the weather has forced the organizers to make a late change to the course. Instead, the 7-day race will kick off with a short, technical 5.4km prologue in Lido di Camaiore that should see a mix of specialists and sprinters come to the fore.

 

The course

For the fourth year in a row, organizers RCS Sport had planned that the Tirreno-Adriatico should open with a spectacular team time trial along the Tyrrhenian coast. Yesterday, however, the impact of the bad weather in Tuscany forced them to make a late change and instead the race will kick off with a 5.4km prologue, meaning that the riders will now do two individual time trials in just 7 days of racing.

 

The stage will start and finish at the same place in the coastal city of Lido di Camaiore but apart from that, not much of the original layout of the stage is unchanged. After the start, the first part is pretty technical as the riders won’t head straight down to the turning point on the coastal road. Instead, they will make a small loop in the city which means that they will do no less than 4 90-degree turns before they get to the turning point.

 

Here the intermediate time check will be taken and then the riders will start the second part half of the stage which is much more straightforward. It consists of a long flat run along the coastal run, with only a small turn at the midpoint. This section is all about power and suits the specialists. The roads are completely flat throughout the entire stage.

 

Lido di Camaiore hasn’t hosted a stage finish in recent years but it has been the scene of the Italian one-day race GP Camaiore which was last year won by Diego Ulissi but has now disappeared from the calendar. In 2007, Danilo Napolitano won a Giro d’Italia stage here in a bunch sprint and in 2002, Rik Verbrugghe was the strongest from a breakaway in the Italian grand tour.

 

 

 

The weather

Tuscany has had some bad weather recently and this is the reason for the change to the course. Tomorrow, however, there won’t be much to fear for the riders who will get the race off to a beautiful and sunny start.

 

There will be a few clouds on the sky on what will be a partly sunny day and with a temperature of 13 degrees, it should be a very pleasant day in the saddle. There will be a light wind from a southwesterly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a cross-tailwind in the first part before they turn into a cross-headwind for the power section along the coast. The wind should be pretty constant throughout the day, meaning that the riders will have pretty similar conditions.

 

The favourites

The change to the course has been a bit of shock for the teams. Many had arrived early to do some team time trial training today and many selections had been based on the fact that it was important to have some power for the flat, non-technical team event. The change will significantly alter the outcome and will also have a big impact on the GC.

 

Lieuwe Westra will be frustrated as he was asked to skip his personal goal of Paris-Nice to support Vincenzo Nibali in the team time trial, Orica-GreenEDGE will lament that they lost a big chance to take the early leader’s jersey and Nairo Quintana will regret the loss of a stage where he could possibly have been the big winner among the GC riders. On the other hand, specialists like Fabian Cancellara and Adriano Malori will be pleased that they now have a big chance to take the blue jersey on the first day while many sprinters who are usually strong in prologues, may eye a stint in the lead after the opening sprint stage.

 

Prologues usually suit a mix of sprinters and specialists. If they are short and technical, the sprinters can make use of their good technical skills and good acceleration to do well while a longer course with less turns suits the powerful specialists. This course is a bit of a mix as it first has a very technical section and finally a flat power section. However, the final part is still relatively short and this should be the kind of prologue where the sprinters can do well. In general, it is very different from the Paris-Nice prologue which was much more about power.

 

Fabian Cancellara is no longer the time triallist he once was and in general he seems to lack the strength he had a few years ago. However, he remains an outstanding prologue rider. In the short time trials, the Swiss can make use of his combination of great technical skills and enormous power and so this mixed course suits him down the ground.

 

Furthermore, Cancellara is currently in pretty good condition. In Strade Bianche, he was not as strong as he has usually been and this may be a sign that he may no longer be able to reach his former level. Furthermore, he was set back by a bout of illness after the Tour of Oman which may partly explain his below-par performance. In Oman, however, he looked strong when he won the hilly stage 2 and he is usually at a high level at this time of the year, with his first big goal of Milan-Sanremo coming in less than two weeks. This has been underlined by his performances in the final Tirreno time trial where he has usually been among the best. Last year he managed to beat both Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins in that test and he has won the TT several times. This course could probably not have suited him better and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

Adriano Malori has stepped up his level massively and he is now one of the very best time triallists in the world. Last year he beat all the biggest names in the Tirreno-Adriatico time trial and he recently confirmed his status when he finished less than half a second behind Tony Martin in the Volta ao Algarve time trial. In the Portuguese race, he left a very strong impressive and he is clearly riding very well at the moment.

 

However, this technical course is not tailor-made for him and he is probably better suited to the power course on the final day. It takes a bit of time for him to get the diesel engine going and he doesn’t have the acceleration that is needed to really excel on this course. On the other hand, he will definitely be one of the fastest in the second half and that could ultimately be enough to give him the win.

 

With his track background, Jesse Sergent is a great prologue rider. He is a former winner of the Eneco Tour time trial and the Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen prologue and last year he seemed to take another step up. While he seems to get stronger in the longer time trials, however, he doesn’t seem to have his former power in the shorter TTs.

 

Nonetheless, he is still among the best time triallists in this field and he still knows how to handle short and technical courses. Last year he was second behind Malori in the final Vuelta time trial which was slightly longer than this one but equally technical. With his second place in the West Flanders prologue, he proved that he is in good condition and this should make him a contender in this stage.

 

Peter Sagan is no time trial specialist but he is usually an excellent prologue rider. From a technical point of view, he is probably the best rider in the peloton and he has an impressive acceleration. Furthermore, he has an incredible top speed over a short distance and this means that he has all the skills to tackle this kind of mixed prologue. It is no coincidence that he finished fifth in the Paris-Nice prologue when he was a young neo-pro, or that he won the Tour de Suisse prologue a few years ago.

 

The main concern is the fact that Sagan has been below his top level for the past two seasons. That was evident in the recent Strade Bianche where he delivered his poorest performance since he suffered a puncture in his debut in 2012. That performance came on top of a year of disappointments for the Slovakian who no longer seems to be the rider he once was. However, he remains a very classy bike rider and on this course he should be able to do well.

 

Rigoberto Uran has improved his time trialling massive since he joined Etixx-QuickStep and he will be eager to get his GC campaign off to the best possible start. In last year’s Tour de Romandie, Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a Espana, he proved his skills over the long distances but he is actually also a pretty good prologue rider. Despite a technical issue, he finished fourth in the Tour de l’Ain prologue and if he had had an incident-free run, he would probably have won that stage. In Strade Bianche, he proved that he is getting into form and with his good technical skills, he should be a contender for this stage.

 

Matthias Brändle may be mostly known for his Hour Record but he is also a great time triallist on the road. In fact he has mainly excelled over the short distances. Last year he was fifth in the Tour of Belgium and Tour of Britain time trials and seventh in the Tour de Romandie prologue which was pretty technical. Earlier this year he was 6th in the Tour of Qatar TT where he regretted that he had held too much back in the first part and felt capable of doing much better. He has the right combination of technical skills and power to do well on this course.

 

For some reason, Jonathan Castroviejo was time trialling poorly in 2014 and it seemed that his improved climbing had cost him the edge in the time trials. However, he returned to his best level at the World Championships and in his first time trial of 2015 he was 6th in Algarve. Castroviejo first grew to fame when he won the Tour de Romandie prologue in 2011 and he knows how to handle this kind of short, technical time trial. His condition doesn’t seem to be at its very best but he could be a contender in this stage.

 

Niki Terpstra has never been a time trial specialist but has always been able to do well in this discipline. However, he suddenly delivered an outstanding performance when he crushed the opposition in the Tour of Qatar time trial and this could indicate that he has upped his level. This stage may be a bit too technical to suit him well but an in-form Terpstra can never be underestimated.

 

Lieuwe Westra was once one of the best time triallists in the world but that is no longer the case. In the last few years he has lost the edge in his preferred discipline but now he wants to get back to his former level. He didn’t shine in Qatar but since then his condition has definitely improved. He has done well in prologues in the past and this could be the day for him to finally return to his best.

 

The stage suits Daniele Bennati perfectly. The Italian is a great time triallist on short, flat courses and he has often done very well in the final Tirreno-Adriatico time trial. This stage is even shorter and more technical and so it should suit him even better. He missed the Tour of Qatar due to illness and doesn’t seem to be quite at his top level yet but he should be a contender in this stage.

 

Alberto Contador seems to be getting back to his best in the time trials. This course is probably too short and flat to suit him well but the technical nature should be to his liking. He was among the very best in the short Ruta del Sol TT which had a bit more climbing than this one but was another technical affair. The Spaniard is unlikely to win the stage but he could easily finish in the top 10.

 

His teammate Maciej Bodnar seems to have improved a lot since he joined Tinkoff-Saxo. The Pole has always been a good time triallist and he rode better than ever in both Qatar and Strade Bianche. Last year he won the Driedaagse van de Panne time trial which is all short and technical. This should be a bit too explosive to suit him perfectly but he could be up there.

 

The same goes for Manuel Quinziato who suddenly found his former TT legs last year. He seems to be in a good condition at the moment as he builds for the classic and he should find the nature of this course to his liking.

 

Alexander Porsev may be known as a sprinter but he is actually a good time triallist on short courses too. This prologue should suit a sprinter like him really well and he seems to be in outstanding condition at the moment. Last year he was in the top 10 in the Dubai Tour time trial and with a more technical course here, he could maybe do even better.

 

Javier Moreno surprised everyone when he won the Ruta del Sol time trial and this naturally makes him one to watch for this stage. It is again short and technical but this time there are no climbs. Furthermore, he is mainly here to help Nairo Quintana and so may not have the biggest personal ambitions. On the other hand, he will have been inspired by his performance in Spain and even though he won’t win again, he could create another surprise.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Fabian Cancellara

Other winner candidates: Adriano Malori, Jesse Sergent

Outsiders: Peter Sagan, Rigoberto Uran, Matthias Brändle, Jonathan Castroviejo, Niki Terpstra, Lieuwe Westra

Jokers: Daniele Bennati, Alberto Contador, Maciej Bodnar, Manuel Quinziato, Alexander Porsev, Javier Moreno, Stephen Cummings, Nikias Arndt