In the last few years, Tirreno-Adriatico have won the battle against Paris-Nice in attracting a stellar line-up of sprinters but this year, the French race has come out on top. With Marcel Kittel having been forced to withdraw, Mark Cavendish is the big favourite for the first sprint battle of the race but a recent bout of illness could potentially set the scene for a surprise.

 

The course

The first road stage of the race has traditionally been for the sprinters and that is not set to change in 2015. In fact, it is a very easy affair as the riders stay close to the Tyrrhenian coast where the terrain is generally a lot flatter than it is in the hills close to the Adriatic coast.

 

The stage brings the riders over a relatively short distance of just 153km from Camaiore to Cascina and for once, the riders won’t start their easterly journey right from the beginning. In fact, they will stay close to the coast as they mainly travel in a southeasterly direction to pass closely by Pisa before reaching the finish in Cascina.

 

From the start, the riders first tackle a 22.2km circuit around Camaiore and this is the only hilly part of the course. After 12.7km of racing, they will go up the Pitoro climb before they descend back to Camaiore. They will start a second lap of the circuit that sees them tackle the climb for second time but before going back to the start area, they will leave the circuit to start their southeasterly journey.

 

From there, the stage is completely flat as the riders pass closely by the cities of Lucca, Pisa and Pontedera. Just south of the latter city, they will turn around to head back to Cascina on the outskirts of Pisa. After 111.7km of racing, they will cross the finish line for the first time to contest the intermediate sprint and start the first of two laps of a 20.7km finishing circuit. It is another flat, non-technical affair and should offer no challenges for the sprinters.

 

The finale is also pretty easy as the final major turns come just before the 4km to go mark. There are two sweeping turns with 2.8km and 1.9km to go and from there the road only bends very slightly to the left before the riders reach the finish on a completely flat road. The riders will go straight through three roundabout in quick succession but the final one comes with 2km to go.

 

Cascina also hosted the finish of last year’s opening road stage where Matteo Pelucchi beat Arnaud Demare and André Greipel in a bunch sprint after the same finale. Marcel Kittel was taken out by a crash that saw him memorably throw his bike to the ground.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Many riders prefer to do Tirreno-Adriatico instead of Paris-Nice because the weather is usually better in the Italian race. This year the French event has enjoyed great weather but the riders in Italy won’t be disappointed either.

 

Tomorrow should be a very sunny day in Tuscany and the temperature will reach a maximum of a pleasant 14 degrees. Usually, this part of Italy is not very windy but tomorrow there will be a bit more wind. There will be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind for most of the day after a short cross-headwind section after the opening circuit. On the finishing circuit, there will be a cross-headwind for a long time before the riders turn into a cross-tailwind for the final 4km.

 

The favourites

In the past, Tirreno-Adriatico often had lots of sprint stages but in recent years, the organizers have made the race a lot more selective. That culminated in 2013 when the riders criticized the organizers for designing a brutally hard course and in 2014 and 2015 the course has had two flat stages.

 

The first of those comes tomorrow which will be a very important day for the fast finishers in the Italian race. For many, Milano-Sanremo is a very big goal and this will be one of only two chances to do a sprint before they can expect to battle it out on Via Roma later this month.

 

In recent years, most of the sprinters have preferred Tirreno-Adriatico instead of Paris-Nice but this year the trend has changed. While it seems that the pure sprinters have all headed to Italy, the more versatile classics guys like Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb have preferred the French race. Last year the Tirreno-Adriatico sprints were almost an all-inclusive battle between the greatest but this year the field is a lot less stellar and the absence of Marcel Kittel has only made the line-up less impressive.

 

Nonetheless, there are still lots of fast finishers in this race and they definitely want to make the most of this opportunity. This means that this stage should be straightforward and very controlled affair and the early break should have no chance of making it to the finish. Everybody knows that and so a small group with riders from the pro continental teams will probably take off straight from the fun. With a mountains jersey up for grabs, they will be keen to get a reward for their efforts and the two KOM sprints should be their main goal of the day.

 

In the peloton, Movistar will set the early pace but very quickly we can expect Etixx-QuickStep to come to the fore. Mark Cavendish is the overwhelming favourite after his great start to the year and the Belgian team usually take the responsibility whenever the Brit is present. This also means that the break is unlikely to get much of an advantage as the Belgians never take too many risks in these stages.

 

Things could be made a bit more complicated by the fact that Cavendish has been ill and if he is not up for the challenge, it could create some kind of vacuum. However, IAM and Giant-Alpecin both have made the sprints their biggest targets in this race and if Etixx-QuickStep decide not to go for the win, they will be strong enough to bring the early break back.

 

Usually, there is no real danger of crosswinds in this race but tomorrow will be windier than usual. As the riders will have a crosswind, this could make things a bit more nervous but we doubt that it will be strong enough to split the field. With a finishing circuit mainly in urban areas, it will also be difficult to maintain any kind of splits all the way to the line and so we don’t expect any crosswinds drama.

 

Hence, it will be a big surprise if the race doesn’t come down to a bunch sprint. The long finishing straight and the cross-tailwind should make it a very fast affair that suits the real power sprinters.

 

On paper, Mark Cavendish is the fastest rider in this race and it is hard not to see him as the big favourite. After a poor start in Argentina, he has been sprinting really well this year and topped it all when he beat the in-form Alexander Kristoff in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. Furthermore, he can rely on an excellent lead-out in this race where Fabio Sabatini and Mark Renshaw should be able to put him into the perfect position and that combination has worked really well so far.

 

The main question is how well Cavendish is feeling. He fell in ill while he was in South Africa and yesterday he claimed that it was the first day when he did not feel really bad and he feared that the first stage would be all about suffering. Today, however, he did a pretty good prologue and this indicates that he is feeling better. There is a risk that he won’t do the sprint but if he is up for the challenge, he will be the big favourite.

 

The only team that can really compete with Etixx-QuickStep in the lead-outs is Giant-Alpecin. The Germans had big plans with Marcel Kittel in this race but as he had to withdraw, they will now back Luka Mezgec. The Slovenian proved great condition when he survived a very tough climb to win the final stage of the Tour du Haut Var.

 

Unfortunately, Mezgec has also been ill and the team may decide to do the sprint for Nikias Arndt. However, Mezgec is their best card and if he is ready, he will be the leader. This kind of power sprint doesn’t really suit him but with the likes of Arndt, Bert De Backer and lead-out man Tom Veelers at his side, he could see his team dominate the finale. If they can deliver him on the front, he has the speed to win.

 

Last year Matteo Pelucchi took a breakthrough win in this stage and he will be keen to repeat that performance. The Italian has always been one of the fastest riders in the bunch but in the past he has lacked the resistance in the harder stages. This year he has taken a massive step up and he dominated the two sprint stages in Mallorca which he both won.

 

Unfortunately, Pelucchi is not backed by the strongest team which was evident in Oman where he twice finished on the podium but had to start his sprint from far back. In this race, he can again relay on his lead-out man Roger Kluge and in general IAM seems to have some firepower for this race. If Pelucchi is in a reasonable position at the start of the sprint, he has the speed to beat Cavendish.

 

Elia Viviani has been sprinting really well this year as he has finally been able to capitalize on his great speed after having been given a good lead-out train at Sky. In this race, however, he doesn’t have his support riders at his side and he will have to rely on Ian Stannard in the finale. Viviani is not very good at positioning himself and there is a big risk that he will be caught out. If he can overcome that weakness, however, he has the speed to win.

 

Sam Bennett sprinted excellently in his first year and one month ago he beat an excellent field of sprinters in the final stage of the Tour of Qatar. In Kuurne, he proved that he is in very good condition when he made the selection on the Kwaremont and he will be eager to take his first WorldTour win. Bora-Argon 18 have built a dedicated lead-out train for him and even though it has been hard for them to make things right, they have the sprinter to finish it off.

 

Alexander Porsev may be in the shadow of Alexander Kristoff but the Russian champion is getting better and better. In the Dubai Tour he did some outstanding sprints and if it hadn’t been for poor positioning, he could easily have won a stage. In this race , he has Alexey Tsatevich and Luca Paolini at his side and if they can get him into a reasonable position he will be among the favourites.

 

Sacha Modolo has not been sprinting very well this year. Last year he proved that he can beat the best though and in this field he is among the fastest. Maximilano Richeze is a great lead-out man and they have been a very successful duo. This power sprint doesn’t suit him too well but if he can finally find his legs, he may open his account.

 

Another rider who has had a bad start to the year, is Peter Sagan. The Slovakian is usually not a rider for the pure bunch sprints and this stage is probably a bit too easy for him. However, he is excellent at positioning himself and he is a master in timing his sprints. If he can position himself on the right wheel in the finale, a Sagan win cannot be ruled out.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Nicola Ruffoni is an excellent sprint talent and in last year’s Tour of Britan he nearly beat both Cavendish and Kittel twice. This year he has had a hard start to the season and he was off the pace in the Middle East. However, he loves this kind of easy stage with a really fast sprint at the end. His main weakness is the fact that he is usually on his own in the finale but if he finds the right wheel, he has the speed to win.

 

Jens Debusschere is mostly working in support of André Greipel but occasionally he gets his own chance. In this race he will be the leader and he will have both Jurgen Roelandts and Pim Ligthart at his side. He is probably not fast enough to win the stage but with Roelandts’ big experience in the lead-outs, he could finish on the podium.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Other winner candidates: Luka Mezgec, Matteo Pelucchi

Outsiders: Elia Viviani, Sam Bennett, Alexander Porsev, Sacha Modolo, Peter Sagan

Jokers: Nicola Ruffoni, Jens Debusschere, Daniel Oss