Omega Pharma-Quick Step got their race off to the perfect start when they won today's team time trial and tomorrow they should again be in the mix when the race continues with a flat affair for the sprinters. With Marcel Kittel, André Greipel, and Mark Cavendish all in attendance, we should be in for the first big showdown between the sprinting giants in 2014.
The course
The first road stage of Tirreno-Adriatico is usually one for the sprinters and it won't be any different in 2014. The riders will head from yesterday's finishing city of San Vincenzo over 166km to Cascina on the southern outskirts of Pisa and the stage consists of a predominantly northern run between the two cities.
From the start in San Vincenzo, the riders follow the flat coastal road back up to Donoratico where the race started today, but instead of following the straight road to Pisa, the peloton will make a small digression as they turn right to head into the hilly hinterlands to tackle a few climbs in the early part of the stage.
The first of those, Guardistallo (5.0km, 3.7%, max. 9%), comes after 31.1km of racing and is followed by a short descent and a flat stretch that lead to the bottom of the Montecatini Val di Cecina climb (9.5km, 3.8%, max. 10%). That ascent is followed by a long gradual downhill that brings the riders to the bottom of the final categorized climb, Lajatico (4.9km, 2.4%, max. 10%).
After the descent, the riders continue their predominantly northern journey that include two uncategorized climbs in the early part. After 108.2km, the riders have finished the descent of the final one and from there the final 57.8km are completely flat.
With 51.9km to go, the riders contest the first intermediate sprint and 10.6km further down the road, they cross the finish line for the first time. From there, they do two laps on a 20.6km rectangular finishing circuit around Cascina on the outskirts of Pisa that sends the riders in predominantly easterly and westerly directions. It is rather non-technical and completely flat. It is mainly a city circuit, composed of straight stretches and roundabouts, and which crosses the bridges over the Arno river twice. The second intermediate sprint of this stage is set upon the first passage in Uliveto Terme, 31.2km from the finish.
The final kilometres are rather non-technical. The riders go through a few turns just before the 4km to go mark and then there is only a sweeping bend and three roundabouts with the final one coming 1.75km from the finish. From there the road is straight and flat, setting the scene for a high-speed sprint.
The weather
The riders enjoyed perfect conditions for today's opening team time trial and it won't be any worse for tomorrow's first road stage. The day will be dominated by bright sunshine and the temperatures will reach and impressive maximum of 20 degrees by the time they reach the finish in Cascina.
The wind rarely plays a role in Italian races and that trend will certainly continue in tomorrow's race. There will only be a very light wind from an easterly director and it will even decrease a bit as the day goes on, ending up being barely noticeable.
This means that the riders will have a very light crosswind for most of the day until they reach the finishing circuit. Here there will be a tailwind in the first part and a headwind in the second until the rides turn back into a tailwind for the final 3km of the stage.
The favourites
Flat roads, bright sunshine, no wind, and the presence of André Greipel, Marcel Kittel, and Mark Cavendish. This stage only has one possible outcome as it has big sprint battle written all over its name. Everybody knows that there will be plenty of firepower in the chase and so there will be no battle to join the early action. A small break is likely to escape from the gun and while the escapees battle it out for the first mountains jersey, Giant-Shimano, Omega Pharma-Quick Step, and Lotto Belisol will make sure that they are reeled in in time for the first big sprint battle between the three sprinting giants.
That battle is maybe even more exciting than ever before. Kittel is the fastest of the trio and has got his season off to a great start by taking three stage victories in the Dubai Tour. However, most of his usually excellent lead-out train is currently in France to support John Degenkolb and he will have less support than usual.
Cavendish has had a bad start to his season as he has only won once - in the final stage of the Volta ao Algarve - and the new lead-out train with Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Renshaw has still not worked perfectly. Finally, André Greipel has got a fantastic start to his season as he has already taken 6 wins and as usual, he is supported by what is the best lead-out train in the world.
With the finishing straight being a long, wide road, the finish will be a real power sprint for the fastest riders. It will be rather easy to move up, meaning that positioning will be less important and as the final corners are far from the finish, it will be more about top speed and power than acceleration and kick.
This makes Kittel our favourite to win the stage. As said, he may miss a big part of his usual lead-out train but he still has his usual final man Tom Veelers at his disposal. Nikias Arndt, Roy Curvers, and Tom Dumoulin have all been part of the lead-outs in the past and especially Curvers has a vast experience in the area. They should be able to position their sprinter well for the finale and if Kittel is not too far back when the sprint starts, he will be very hard to beat.
Kittel has barely raced since the Dubai Tour as he abandoned the Vuelta a Andalucia after doing an excellent prologue but he claims to have been training well and to be in condition. He was really outstanding in Dubai and if he has maintained that kind of form, there is no reason to suggest that he won't win tomorrow's stage.
It will be interesting to see if the Omega Pharma-Quick Step train manages to get things right in tomorrow's stage. Until now the combination Petacchi-Renshaw-Cavendish hasn't worked properly and apparently they have still not decided the right order of the links in the train. Matteo Trentin will be on hand to provide extra firepower and everybody knows how valuable Tony Martin is when it comes to position a train inside the final kilometres. The train should have improved since Algarve and Cavendish has proved that he is not too far behind Kittel when it comes to speed. If the train can position the Brit right, he may be the one to come away with the win.
Greipel has had a great start to the season but there is no doubt that he is third in the hierarchy when it comes to top speed. On the other hand, he has the best train at his disposal and his team very rarely fails to deliver him on the front. They may be missing Greg Henderson who is out with knee problems but so far the combination Hansen-Sieberg-Debusschere-Roelandts-Greipel has worked excellently. When Sieberg takes off at the flamme rouge, the team has the rest of stage firmly under control.
Greipel is well-suited to this kind of power sprint but due to the non-technical finale, he may benefit less from his train. In the Tour Down Under, Kittel proved that he is clearly faster than his compatriot and if the Giant sprinter is not too far back when the sprint starts, it will be hard for Greipel to hold him off. It will be difficult for Greipel to win the stage but if his train gets things rights, he surely has a chance.
It is hard to imagine that the winner won't be one of the three giants but there are other fast riders in the race. With three wins, Sacha Modolo has got his season off to a great start and he has clearly taken a step up. More importantly, the cooperation with new lead-out man Maximiliano Richeze has been working excellently and in this race they will have the added firepower of Davide Cimolai and Filippo Pozzato. In Algarve, Modolo claimed to have been faster than Cavendish and even though this is unlikely to be true, the Italian is clearly riding really well at the moment. If his team manages to position him well - at the back of the Lotto train - he may come away with a surprise.
In the final stage of the Tour of Oman, Arnaud Demare proved his excellent speed and he will hope to carry that momentum into the Tirreno. He was not too far behind Cavendish when he finished 2nd in the final Algarve stage and when it comes to pure speed, he is not too far behind the three giants. His main disadvantage is his positioning ability but the train with William Bonnet and final lead-out man Mickael Delage is constantly improving. If they can move Demare up in the finale, he will not be far off the amrk.
Of course Peter Sagan also deserves to be mentioned but it will be hard for him to win in a power sprint like today's. The Slovakian has never been fast enough to battle with the three fastest sprinters in the world and his two green jerseys have been won more by consistency and versatility than pure sprinter. At the same time, he has been sprinting poorly so far in 2014 and he was far behind in the Oman sprints. This was often due to bad positioning which is rather surprising as he is usually a master in that field. He doesn't have a strong train at his disposal and his cooperation with Oscar Gatto has not worked yet. Nonetheless, no one can ever rule out Sagan in any kind of sprint finish.
Finally, we will select our joker. Matteo Pelucchi may not have won an awful lot of races but he is a very fast sprinter. He is often badly positioned which means that he can't capitalize on his speed but if he gets a clear run to the line, he is difficult to hold back. With Martin Elmiger, Heinrich Haussler, and Roger Kluge, he will have good support and on the wide road, it will be easier to move into position. A stage win will be hard to take but don't be surprised to see Pelucchi finish up with the best.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel
Other winner candidates: Mark Cavendish, André Greipel
Outsiders: Sacha Modolo, Arnaud Demare, Peter Sagan
Joker: Matteo Pelucchi
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