Until now, the road stages have all been about staying safe for the GC riders but tomorrow they will finally be able to test themselves on the climbs. Stage 3 is both very long and very hilly and even though it ends with a 6.25km descend, the difficult finishing circuit could allow the climbers to make the first differences.

 

The course

For the GC riders, the first two road stages have been all about staying safe and avoid any unexpected time loss but now it is finally time for them to test their climbing legs. The Tirreno-Adriatico has often had a very long stage in hilly terrain that is similar to a classic and makes it perfect preparation for Milan-Sanremo. This year that stage comes on day 4 when the riders travel from Indicatore to Castelraimondo over a 226km distance which is slightly shorter than usual.

 

At the start, the riders are still in the flat part of Italy that has played host to the first few stages and this means that the first part of the race is almost completely flat as the riders continue their easterly journey towards the Adriatic coast. Already after 13.7km of racing, they will tackle the Foce delle Scopetone climb and this will serve as the perfect launch pad for an early attack.

 

After the climb, the riders will continue along flat, straight roads while contesting the two intermediate sprints at the 94.6km and 124.1km marks respectively. Gradually, the terrain gets slightly hillier and as they approach the second sprint point, they will tackle a number of rolling hills.

 

After 138.6km of racing, the riders have finally reached the hilly eastern part of the country and they kick off the climbing action by tackling the tough Poggio San Romualdo (10.85km, 6.4%, max. 11%). After an easy start, it is a very regular ascent with a pretty constant gradient of around 7% before it flattens slightly out in the final kilometre.

 

The climb is followed by a long descent and then a very undulating section on turning, twisting roads that are characteristic for this region. The riders are now travelling in a southerly direction and briefly head onto flat roads before they start the difficult finale.

 

It starts with 23km to go when the riders go up the Crispiero climb (3.2km, 9.3%, max. 15%). After an easy start, the riders hit a tough kilometre where the gradient stay above 11% and the final kilometre isn’t much easier with a gradient of 8-11% .From now on, there is almost no flat road as the descent leads straight to the finish line in Castelraimondo from where the riders do one lap of a 13.35km finishing circuit. It first consists of 4 flat kilometres before the riders again do the Crispiero climb. The summit comes with 6.25km to go and they are all downhill – albeit not on a very steep road – before the final 250m ascend slightly with a 4% gradient. The finale is pretty technical with several sweeping turns on the descent and even two hairpin bends with 1500m to go. The riders will take a sharp left-hand turn with 750m to go before they enter the final left-hand turn that leads onto the 250m finishing straight.

 

The stage was originally set to include the big climb of Monte San Vicino before the riders tackled the Crispiero but that ascent will be skipped. Instead, the riders will now do a lap of the finishing circuit. Castelraimondo last hosted a stage in 2011 when the unbeatable Philippe Gilbert won a sprint from a 13-rider group in a very similar stage.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Until now, the riders have had excellent weather for the Italian race but as it is often the case, things get a bit more tricky when they head into the Apennines for the hilliest stages. Rain is forecasted for the queen stage but luckily the rides can expect to reach Castelraimondo without having to tackle wet roads.

 

Tomorrow will mainly be a cloudy day and the temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of just 10 degrees. As usual, there won’t be much wind as there will only be blowing a light wind from an easterly direction. This means that the riders will have a headwind almost all day before they turn into a crosswind for the undulating section after the Poggio San Romualdo. During the run-in to the finishing circuit, there will be a tailwind. On the finishing circuit, there will first be a headwind and then a crosswind on the climb. On the descent, there will first be a tailwind before the riders turn into a crosswind.

 

The favourites

After three days in flat terrain, the nature of the race will completely change tomorrow. The riders head into the hills for the first of two days that offer the climbers the first chance to make a difference. As everybody seems to be a bit uncertain about what to expect from the final climb of Monte Terminillo in the queen stage, the climbers are likely to already test themselves in this stage which could turn out to be harder than it may look like on paper.

 

After two days that have been controlled by the sprint teams, the dynamics of the race will change. This kind of stage has no obvious favourite and so it is not immediately clear who is going to control the first part of the stage. This means that a break could actually make it to the finish and so many riders will be keen to go on the attack. As there is also a mountains jersey up for grabs, we should see the stage get off to a fast start and it will probably take some time for the early break to be formed.

 

The flat start to the stage means that the early break may not contain riders that are able to finish it off in this kind of terrain but the main question for the escapees will be which team is going to take control of the situation. Greg Van Avermaet leads the race and this could be a good stage for him and so BMC will probably do quite a bit of work.

 

However, there is a chance that the American team decides not to defend the jersey and then it will be up to the GC teams to take over. However, Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana both want this stage to be as hard as possible and they don’t want a breakaway to run away with the GC. Hence, those two teams will probably hit the front no later than from the bottom of the Poggio San Romualdo from where they will ride hard to make the race tough and keep their captains safe on the rolling, twisting roads in the Apennines.

 

This means that we don’t give the early break much of a chance and this opens the door for a big battle for the stage win among the GC and classics riders on the two passages of the Crispiero. With no obvious favourite, the stage lends itself to a number of different outcomes.

 

The main question is how hard the climb is going to be. 3km with an average gradient of 9.3% is pretty tough and with two passages inside the final 20km, it is likely to be a bit too hard for most of the classics riders. As Tinkoff-Saxo are likely to try to make the race hard and as they will also have passed the Poggio San Romualdo, only the strongest will be able to follow the attacks the final time up the climb.

 

We could see some attacks on the penultimate climb but with Tinkoff-Saxo probably setting a hard pace, it is probably impossible to escape. Instead, the key moves will be made on the final climb. Contador did a surprisingly poor prologue and he usually attacks whenever he has a chance to do so. We expect him to give it a go on the final climb and then the main issue will be to see which riders are going to stay with him.

 

We don’t think that any of the classics riders can stay with the in-form Spaniard on this kind of climb but it may also be too short for him to drop the climbers. This opens the door for the fastest among the GC riders.

 

Daniel Moreno aimed at the GC when he started this race but he lost ground due to a mechanical yesterday. Now his main goal is to win a stage and this stage is his best chance. The Katusha rider should be allowed to play his own card as Joaquim Rodriguez is not at his best and he seems to be in good condition. He rode better than usual in the Tour de San Luis and he seemed to be strong in the Tour of Oman before he had a bad day in the queen stage.

 

This kind of short explosive climb is perfect for Moreno and the steep gradients suit him well. Among the best climbers in this race, he is probably the fastest in a flat sprint and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

Another fast GC rider is Daniel Martin. The Irishman is rarely at his best at this time of the year but in 2015 he actually seems to be at a good level. He has been attentive in the flat stages and this indicates that he will be going for the GC in this race.

 

As a classics rider, Martin excels in this terrain and he has all the skills to come out on top. He is both a great descender and very fast in a sprint. There is a chance that he is not yet good enough to be with the best but if he is there, he will be a contender.

 

Greg Van Avermaet constantly gets better and better and it will be interesting to see how he handles this stage. The amount of climbing could be too hard for hard for him but in last year’s Tour de France, he probed that he has stepped up his climbing massively. Furthermore, he is probably in better condition than most of the GC riders.

 

It will be tough for Van Avermaet to stay with Contador on this kind of climb and he has always come up short in the Clasica San Sebastian whose new finale is similar to this one. However, the in-form Belgian can definitely not be ruled out and if he is there at the end, he will be hard to beat in a sprint.

 

Bauke Mollema is another GC rider who is fast in a sprint. While Moreno and Martin have not really excelled in their first races, there is no doubt that Mollema is very strong at the moment. He has been among the best in all his races and as an Ardennes specialist, he is good in this kind of terrain. He is probably not as fast as Martin and Moreno in a sprint but if they have both been left behind, he could win the stage.

 

As said, we expect Contador to try an attack on the final climb and as we expect him to be in a class of his own when it comes to climbing in this race, he may drop everybody else on the ascent. The technical nature of the descent means that it will be difficult to chase and Contador is a great descender. This means that he could take a solo win in this stage and if he gets to the finish with the likes of Quintana, Nibali and Pozzovivo, he could even take a sprint win.

 

Rigoberto Uran seems to be at a decent level. Strade Bianche and the French one-day races two weeks ago proved that he is not at his best yet but he is getting better. He did a good time trial and now has to try to stay with Contador in the mountains. He is an explosive climber and should find this terrain to his liking. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint if he makes the selection.

 

Usually this stage should be too hard for Zdenek Stybar but we won’t rule out another win for the in-form Czech. He rode very strongly on the climbs in Strade Bianche and even though the amount is tougher here, he could possibly stay with the best. He is a great descender and so may get back if he loses a bit of ground and with his fast sprint and technical skills, he is perfectly suited to the tricky finale.

 

Wout Poels has got a rare chance to lead Team Sky and he is clearly in very good condition. He did an excellent prologue and today he finished 10th in the uphill sprint. Poels is very strong on steep gradients and should find this terrain to his liking. Furthermore, he is very fast in a sprint and this should make him a contender.

 

In the past, Peter Sagan would have been the man to beat in this stage but the Slovakian is not at his previous level. In Strade Bianche, he couldn’t follow the best on the climbs and here the amount of climbing is a lot tougher. At the moment, he simply doesn’t seem to have the condition to be a contender. On the other hand, he has won much harder races in the past and so he cannot be ruled out.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Giampaolo Caruso is clearly in very good condition and if Moreno is not up for the challenge, he will be allowed to play his card in the sprint. He has a decent turn of speed and could create a surprise. Rinaldo Nocentini seems to back to his best level after an injury-marred 2014 season and he has the sprint skills to win this kind of race. However, he still needs to prove that he can still reach his previous heights.

 

This stage should be a very good one for Damiano Caruso as he is very fast in a sprint but the Italian doesn’t seem to be at his best at the moment. Simon Geschke is another joker as he is fast in a sprint but we expect it to get a bit too tough for him.

 

Finally, Thibaut Pinot could create a surprise. We expect him to be among the very best on the climbs in this race and if he arrives at the finish with the likes of Contador, Quintana and Pozzovivo, he should be the fastest.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Daniel Moreno

Other winner candidates: Daniel Martin, Greg Van Avermaet

Outsiders: Bauke Mollema, Alberto Contador, Rigoberto Uran, Zdenek Stybar, Wout Poels, Peter Sagan

Jokers: Giampaolo Caruso, Thibaut Pinot, Simon Geschke, Damiano Caruso, Rinaldo Nocentini, Gianluca Brambilla