After an opening team time trial and stages for the sprinters and puncheurs, it is finally time to turn on the climbing legs in Tirreno-Adriatico. The team time trial have opened the first gaps and now it is time for climbers to start to take back any time they may have lost when the Tirreno peloton tackles a mammoth 244km route that ends with a mountaintop finish in what must be described as the queen stage of the race.

The course

After three days of racing, it is finally time for the climbers to come to the fore on the fourth stage which is the race's queen stage. The stage continues the journey towards the Adriatic Sea as the riders travel in a predominantly southeasterly direction for the entire stage. However, the riders have now left behind the flat plains of the western part of the country and have reached the hills.

The stage brings the riders over a mammoth 244km from yesterday's finish in Indicatore (Arezzo) to a finish at the top of the Cittareale Selvarotonda climb. However, the first half of the stage is very easy as it consists of a long completely flat run along the plains that ends when the riders reach the feed zone in Bevagna after 115.3km of racing.

From there, the riders get a small appetizer of the hostilities to come when they do a small uncategorized climb to the city of Montefalco before they head down the descent and travel along flat roads to Spoleto. Having contested the first intermediate sprint, the riders take on the first climb of the day, the Forca di Cerro (9.6km, 4.6%, max. 9%.). It's a rather easy and regular affair as the gradient is rather constant between 4% and 5% all the way to the top.

At the top, 92km remain and the first part of those consist of a short descent and then the Forca Capistrello climb (16.35km, 6.7%, max. 12%) which is the hardest ascent of the day. The climb is less regular than the first one and has its steepest section just after the first kilometre. It comes at the beginning of a long section with an average gradient of 8.9% and then the roads flattens before kicking up with an average gradient of 7.6%. Then there's a short descent, leading to the final 1.35km that kick up at 6.1%.

From the top, 62.2km remain. A short descent leads to a long stretch of rolling roads along which the riders contest the final intermediate sprint 41.4km from the finish. They form a nice warm-up for the final climb to the finish, the Cittareale Selvarotonda (14km, 5.3%, max 10%). The climb is not overly difficult but the gradient increases gently little by little as kilometres go by and features 7 hairpin bends. The first 5.4km have a gradient of 4.2% while the next 4km are a bit steeper at 5.6%. The final section has an average of 6.4% but stays above 7% for the final 1.5km. The steepest part comes just at the flamme rouge where it reaches 10% before staying at 7-8% until the finish. The final hairpin bend comes 2km from the finish and from there, there is only some sweeping turns.

The weather

In the past, big mountain stages in the Tirreno-Adriatico have often been altered as it is risky business to send riders into the heights at this time of the year. However, there is no risk of that kind of things tomorrow as the beautiful weather will continue for another day.

It will be a day of bright sunshine and the temperatures will reach a very pleasant maximum of 15 degrees in the valley. There will only be a light wind from a western direction, meaning that the riders will generally have a cross-tailwind for most of the day. For the final climb, they turn into a crosswind and there will be a headwind for the final 6km of the stage.

The favourites

Several riders were a bit concerned that Michal Kwiatkowski had taken too much time in the team time trial and after today's tricky stage they have seen their deficit been further increased as the Pole both took bonus seconds and finished ahead of the splits in the peloton. This means that they will be even more eager to put the young race leader under pressure and tomorrow they get their first big opportunity.

There is no chance that the early breakaway will stay away to the finish in this very long stage. For riders like Alberto Contador and Richie Porte to win this race, they will probably need the bonus seconds and so they will make sure to reel in the early escapees. At the same time, Kwiatkowski will be the one to benefit from an easy race and so there is no doubt that either Sky or Tinkoff-Saxo will set a fast pace as soon as they hit the mountains in the second part of the race. Both teams are very strong and should easily make the race a tough one by upping the speed as soon as the racing gets tough.

Hence, there is no doubt that things will be decided by the GC favourites who will all wait for the final climb to start the battle. This is certainly the queen stage of the race but the final climb is not very difficult and we should not see massive time gaps. As it comes at the end of a very long day, however, the climb may prove a little more selective than it would be at a first glance.

In the past, Kwiatkowski has proved that he is able to challenge the very best on shorter climbs and by performing well in the major classics, he has also proved that the 244km should be of little concern. However, he still hasn't shown that he is able to fight with the very best climbers in a big mountain stage and so tomorrow's stage is a bit of a test of manhood for the young Pole.

Kwiatkowski is evidently in great condition at the moment and there is no doubt that he will be up there among the best. Had the final climb been a tough one, we would have expected him to come up short against Alberto Contador but that isn't the case. The gradients are not too hard and as there will be a headwind in the steep section, it will be easier to follow wheels.

Kwiatkowski was beaten by Contador on the Alto do Malhao in the Volta ao Algarve but that climb was a much steeper affair. On this climb, it will be much harder for Contador to get rid of the young Pole and if he can keep up with the Spaniard, he will be the favourite to win. Kwiatkowski is a very fast sprinter, both when it is flat and uphill, and if he is still there in the final 500m, he will be hard to beat. Due to his excellent condition, the fast sprint, and the rather easy climb, we put our money on Kwiatkowski to win the stage.

However, it would be a bad idea to rule out the possibility of Contador taking his second win of the season. The early season clearly indicates that he may get back to his best level after his bad 2013 season. In Algarve, he did an excellent time trial on a course that didn't suit him and the individual discipline seems to be the area where he has suffered the most since coming back from suspension. He went on to beat Kwiatkowski on the Alto do Malhao and with Kwiatkowski's recent showings, that feat has not become any less impressive in hindsight.

Contador would clearly have preferred a harder final climb but the gradients get a bit tougher near the end. With the final 1.5km being rather tough, the terrain is there for Contador to take off and tomorrow may be the day when he finally proves that he is back to full speed.

If one looks at the 2013 level, Richie Porte would have been the favourite to win this stage. In the Tour de France, he proved that his top level puts him right at the top end of the hierarchy of climbers. However, he hasn't been too impressive in the early part of the season. He was riding well in Australia in January but he didn't set the world on fire in the Vuelta a Andalucia where his teammate Geraint Thomas seemed to be stronger.

Since then, his condition will have improved and he will be very eager to capitalize on the chance he has got to lead the team in Tirreno in the absence of Chris Froome. He has a strong Sky team at his disposal to make the race hard and then it will be up to him to finish it off in the end. We have out doubt that his condition will allow him to win the stage but he won't be far off the mark.

If Porte's form is a bit uncertain, the same can't be said for Domenico Pozzovivo. The tiny climber excelled in the Roma Maxima where he dropped Alejandro Valverde on the steepest slopes and anyone who has witnessed the Movistar captain's recent exploits will know that this is no mean feat. Pozzovivo would certainly have preferred a much steeper final climb and his best chance may come on Sunday but he is already a bit down on GC, meaning that the major favourites are not forced to respond to his attacks. Don't be surprised if Ag2r take another win tomorrow with their second tiny climber after Betancur's recent showings in France.

Kwiatkowski is not the only Omega Pharma-Quick Step rider who could shine in this stage. Rigoberto Uran has proved that he is riding really well at the moment. He was clearly one of the strongest in the Tour of Oman where he was the only one who tried to respond to Chris Froome's searing attack on the Green Mountain. He went on to perform well in the Strade Bianche where he worked as a domestique. Furthermore, he is a very fast finisher that is hard to beat in a sprint at the top of a climb that is not too hard.

Chris Horner has already performed well in his first races for Lampre-Merida but until now he has been working as a domestique. Tomorrow he gets his first chance to shine and things indicate that he is close to the top of his game. In the Vuelta, the American proved how strong he is and as he is already a bit down on GC, he could get a bit of freedom in the finale. In the Vuelta, he showed that he is very hard to get back if he has taken off and we wouldn't be surprised if he gets his Lampre career off to the best possible start.

Finally, we will select out joker. Julian Arredondo got his season excellently off the ground when he won two stages of the Tour de San Luis where he beat Nairo Quintana who was flying at that moment. The Colombian is a very punchy climber who is strongest on shorter ascents and he still needs to prove that he can handle very long races. However, he is in excellent condition at the moment as he proved in the GP Camaiore and as the final climb is not too difficult, it may more be about punch that skills on long climbs. This should suit Arredondo well and if he is still in contention when they pass the flamme rouge, he will be a danger man.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Michal Kwiatkowski

Other winner candidates: Alberto Contador, Richie Porte

Outsiders: Domenico Pozzovivo, Rigoberto Uran, Chris Horner

Joker: Julian Arredondo