The riders got their first taste of the hills in today’s stage but the Crispiero climb turned out not to be hard enough to make a real difference. Now the climbers only have one shot left if they want to win this race. Tomorrow’s queen stage to the top of the Monte Terminillo is set the be the scene of a great battle between the big grand tour stars and offers Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana a chance to distance Rigoberto Uran before the final time trial.

 

The course

Stage 4 offered the GC riders a chance to test their legs but the time gaps were not very big. Instead, the climbers will have to make the big difference in the stage 5 queen stage which offers the only big summit finish of the race. The top of Monte Terminillo sits at 1675m above sea level, meaning that organizers RCS Sport continue their recent tradition of taking the riders into the mountains already at this early point of the year.

 

The 194km stage brings the riders from Esanatoglia to the top of Monte Terminillo and mainly consists of a long southerly run. The first part of the stage takes place in the hilly easterly part of the country and this means that the riders get the stage off to a tough start. Right from the beginning, they tackle the uncategorized La Mocra climb before they descend to the bottom of Passo Sallegri which is a climb of almost 10km. The descent leads to Pieve Torina where they will contest the first intermediate sprint and then they gradually ascend to the bottom of the short, steep La Arette.

 

The summit comes after 72.4km of racing and signals the end of the tough first part. The riders head slightly west to get out of the hilly area as they descent from the climb and get back to the flat part of the country where they spent the first few stages. The middle section is almost completely flat before the route again turns to the east and goes back into the hills.

 

The terrain gradually gets slightly hillier, with two small uncategorized climbs but the real battle starts when the riders hit the small uncategorized ascent to the intermediate sprint in Castelfranco. It is followed by a very short descent and then the riders head straight onto the lower slopes of the final climb. It is 16.1km long and has an average gradient of 7.3% and a maximum of 12%. It has an easy section at the beginning and at the midpoint but the rest of it is very regular with a gradient of 8-9%. Only the final 600m are easier as they average just 3.6%. The final part is held on a typical bending mountain road but there are no sharp hairpin bends. Instead, it has a number of sweeping turns, with the final one coming just 250m from the line.

 

At 16.1km, the Monte Terminillo is a very long climb for this time of the year and the pretty constant gradient of 8-9% means that it has the potential to create a big difference. It may lack the very steep sections that characterize most Italian mountains but it leaves very little room for recovery and on paper it should be a lot tougher than the summit finish in Paris-Nice.

 

Monte Terminillo last featured in a major bike race in 2010 when Chris Anker Sørensen won a Giro d’Italia stage from a breakaway. In 2003, it also hosted a Giro stage and back then it was Stefano Garzelli who beat Gilberto Simoni and Andrea Noe in a 3-rider sprint.

 

 

 

 

The weather

As forecasted, the riders were spared any rain in today’s stage where the weather had turned sour after the pleasant start to the race. However, their luck has now come to an end as tomorrow is set to be a brutal day.

 

Rain will be falling all day which means that it will be showing at the top of the Monte Terminillo. The temperature in Rieti close to the climb will reach a maximum of just 10 degrees on hat should be a very cold day in the saddle.

 

Furthermore, it will be unusually windy as there will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction. This means that the riders will mostly have a cross-headwind all day. That will also be the case when they go up the final climb.

 

The favourites

With snow set to fall on the Monte Terminillo, there is a risk that the organizers will be forced to modify this hugely anticipated stage.  There is a chance that they may be forced to skip the two early climbs to avoid the dangerous descents but luckily there are no high mountains in the second part apart from the final ascent. At the moment, the organizers have not announced any chances and so we will base this preview on the assumption that the riders will be able to do the climb of the Monte Terminillo.

 

Going into today’s stage, there was a bit of uncertainty about whether the stage would be able to produce time differences between the overall contenders but apart from Poels, the main riders were not able to get rid of each other and there were no major attacks. Everybody seemed to be content at waiting for tomorrow which is the big test for the climbers.

 

Before the race, Alberto Contador was a bit uncertain about the Monte Terminillo as he didn’t know whether it would be hard enough to make any big differences. Looking at the numbers, however, it is a tough affair and it should definitely be able to create a separation. Unfortunately, there will be a cross-headwind which will make it less selective but on these slopes, the strongest climbers should be able to make a difference.

 

In most mountain stages, it takes some time for the early break to be formed and that is likely to be the case in tomorrow’s stage too. Tactical considerations mean that more teams want to have a rider in the early break and so the race should get off to a fast start. Furthermore, the first part of the stage is pretty difficult and this will make it hard to control. When the dust has settled, there is a chance that a pretty big and strong group will have gone clear.

 

This is the only chance for the climbers to make a difference though and this means that the break is unlikely to have any chance. Alberto Contador did a poor prologue and he needs to have a great day tomorrow if he wants to win this race. As he can expect to lose time to Rigoberto Uran in the final time trial, he can’t allow the bonus seconds to slip away. Furthermore, he wants to make the race as hard as possible as he doesn’t know what to expect from the final climb. Hence, Tinkoff-Saxo will make sure that the early break is caught no later than on the lower slopes on the final climb. The Russian team doesn’t have the strongest team of climbers for this race but they have lots of horsepower for the flats and so they should be able to organize a good chase. Movistar may even lend them a hand and Sky will also do their job to honour the leader’s jersey.

 

This means that the stage is likely to be decided in a big battle between the favourites on the Monte Terminillo. Alberto Contador didn’t have a great prologue and he even went down in today’s stage. When Wout Poels attacked in the finale, he seemed to try to follow the strong Dutchman but he failed to do so.

 

This may indicate that Contador is not at 100% but it is hard not to regard the Spaniard as the big favourite. In the Ruta del Sol, he was already at a very good level and since then he has only improved.  He is definitely not at his best level but he is not too far off.

 

On paper, only Nairo Quintana and Vincenzo Nibali should be able to match him on the climbs in this race but they are not at their best yet. At the moment, it is very hard to imagine that they will be able to follow Contador when he makes his attack. Due to his time loss, he has to make his move a bit further out and the headwind will make things a bit more complicated. However, he should be the strongest rider in this race and he will be the man to beat.

 

Nobody really knows how good Nairo Quintana is. He was not very good in the Tour de San Luis and later he had to skip the Ruta del Sol due to a crash at the Colombian Championships. He didn’t miss much training though and even though he has played down the expectations, he is clearly aiming for the GC in today’s race.

 

It is hard to gauge too much from today’s stage but he looked strong on the final climb. Tomorrow’s longer climb should suit him a lot better and he is usually very good in bad weather conditions. On paper, he is one of the three best climbers in this race and he is the one who is most likely to be able to challenge Contador.

 

Thibaut Pinot has proved that he is one of the very best climbers in the world and he was the only rider who managed to put Nibali on his limit in last year’s Tour de France. This year he has been riding strongly from the beginning of the season and after he had adapted to the heat, he was fifth in the queen stage of the Tour of Oman. Unlike many others, he excels in the cold conditions and he confirmed his great form by doing an excellent prologue. Contador has to look out for Pinot on the final climb and as the Frenchman is faster in a sprint, he just has to stay with the Spaniard to win the stage.

 

Sky went into this race with the plan to ride for Chris Froome but after he had to withdraw, the door has opened for other riders to make their mark. Poels did so today and tomorrow it could be a day for Mikel Nieve. The Basque climber was very strong in the Ruta del Sol where he came back from a puncture in the queen stage and was the best of the rest behind Contador and Froome in the second mountain stage.

 

That performance confirmed his improved climbing level and tomorrow’s long climb should suit him well. He may have to ride in support of Poels but if he is giving the chance to ride for himself, he should be one of the very strongest.

 

Rigoberto Uran didn’t really shine in his first races of the season but he seemed to be one of the best on the climb in today’s race. With his excellent TT skills, he is the big rival for Contador in this race and he will do his utmost to follow the Spaniard in this race. He knows how to handle the bad weather conditions too. However, he still needs to show that he is in a great condition and usually he is very inconsistent. On the other hand, he is a very fast sprinter which gives him the upper hand if the climb is less selective.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo has improved his level a lot over the last few years and he is now a perennial top 5 contender in the WorldTour stage races. He was already very strong in the Tour Down Under but as he had to undergo surgery in February, he had to take a short break. This made his condition a bit uncertain for this race but he looked strong in today’s stage. Tomorrow’s climb should suit him a bit better and he should be among the best on the final climb.

 

Wout Poels confirmed his potential in today’s stage and if he can stay with the best tomorrow, he has a very big chance of winning the race. In last year’s Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he won the queen stage and he was at the level of Quintana and Uran on Monte Zoncolan in the Giro. Today he proved that he is in excellent condition and we still haven’t seen how far he can get. He has the potential to be one of the best climbers and tomorrow will be a very big test. Unfortunately, the skinny rider often suffers in cold conditions and this could be a setback.

 

Giampaolo Caruso looked strong when he attacked in the finale of today’s stage and he will be keen to get a rare chance to ride for himself. Daniel Moreno is out of GC contention due to a crash and Joaquim Rodriguez is not at his best yet. Caruso has the right aggressive mindset to surprise the favourites and with his fast sprint he is an obvious contender.

 

Bauke Mollema has been very strong all year and he is clearly still riding very well. He looked strong on the climb in today’s stage and he did a solid time trial too. The Dutchman has often suffered in this race but this year he is clearly riding better. He has been one of the best riders so far in 2015. Tomorrow he faces his first big test in the mountains and he should be one of the best.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Przemyslaw Niemiec had a bad 2014 season which was salvaged by a stage win in the Vuelta but now he seems to be back to his best. He has been strong in the many one-day races that he has done so far and is clearly in good condition. He is unlikely to win this stage but in the past he has shown that he can be up there with the best.

 

Adam Yates had a storming start to his professional career. He finished in the top 10 at the Dauphiné and managed to stay with Valverde and Rodriguez on the final climb in San Sebastian. This proves that he has a very big potential and after a poor start, he seems to have found his legs. He claims to have good numbers in training and he could create another surprise tomorrow.

 

Alberto Losada is mostly known as a domestique and that is his role in this race too. However, he seemed to be one of the strongest on the final climb today and he was riding really well in Algarve too. He will probably have to sacrifice his own chances but as part of an aggressive Katusha strategy, he could suddenly end up with a chance to ride for himself.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alberto Contador

Other winner candidates: Nairo Quintana, Wout Poels

Outsiders: Domenico Pozzovivo, Rigoberto Uran, Joaquim Rodriguez, Giampaolo Caruso, Bauke Mollema, Thibaut Pinot, Mikel Nieve

Jokers: Przemyslaw Niemiec, Adam Yates, Alberto Losada, Jurgen van den Broeck, Alexis Vuillermoz