After two dramatic days in the mountains, the sprinters will again come to the fore as the Tirreno-Adriatico has included an extra stage for the fast finishers in this year's edition of the race. With a crash ruining our chance to see the first big battle between the sprinting giants in the first flat stage, all is now set for the first big sprint between André Greipel, Marcel Kittel, and Mark Cavendish.

 

The course

Last year the organizers faced plenty of criticism for their brutal penultimate stage that featured several short, steep climbs and came at the end of two big stages that were very similar to this year's weekend stages. They have listened to their critics and instead of giving the climbers a third option to take some time, they have given the sprinters something to strive for at the end of the race.

 

This year's penultimate stage is 189km long and even though it again finishes in Porto Sant'Elpidio on the Adriatic coas, it could hardly have been more different from last year's. Instead of tackling the many climbs in the hilly hinterland, the riders head from the start in Bucchianico straight to the coast and the only real climbing comes in this early part. The stage has a hard start as the Chieti climb (6.8km, 3.4%, max. 13%) comes right from the beginning and it is followed by a descent and another small ascent whose descent leads to the coast.

 

The riders now turn left and then follow the long, straight, flat coastal road for most of the day. After 122.6km, they contest the first intermediate sprint and then they make a small digression from the straight line as they turn inland to tackle a small ascent. Then they heads back to the coast where they reach the finishing city.

 

They now do a small loop that sends them up the final climb of the race, Sant'Elpidio a Mare (2.7km, 5.6%, max. 9%). From the top, 41.1km remain and they lead the riders back to the city and the first passage of the finish line where the final intermediate sprint is located. The stage ends with two laps of an 13.75km finishing circuit that is almost completely flat as it is more or less up and down along the coast. At the midpoint, there is a small 2% climb as the riders briefly leave the coast but it will have no major impact.

 

The first part of the circuit is rather technical but the second part consists of long, straight roads. With 1,600 m to the finish, the last two bends (both right-hand bends), separated by an underpass, lead to the home stretch: 1,500 m on 7.5-m wide, asphalted roadway.

 

This is the perfect scene for a real power sprint between the world's fastest sprinters and there is no chance that the likes of Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, and André Greipel will miss the chance to sprint against each other along the Adriatic coast. It will be a completely different scenario than last year when Peter Sagan, Vincenzo Nibali, and Joaquim Rodriguez arrived at the finish in Porto Sant'Elpidio together, with Sagan easily winning the sprint.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Until now, the weather has been great in both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico and the riders have had the best preparation for the classics that they have had for years. However, it will only get even better tomorrow which will be almost like a summer day on the Italian coast.

 

The riders can expect bright sunshine for the entire stage and after a few days with temperatures below the 20-degree marks, it will be a very hot day. The temperatures are expected to reach a massive 24 degrees by the time the expected sprint will unfold tomorrow afternoon.

 

It will be slightly more windy than it has been in previous days but it will still only be a light breeze coming from a northwesterly direction. This means that there will be a cross-headwind for the long run up along the coast, with a crosswind section coming on the small loop into the hills near the end.

 

On the finishing circuit, there will be a tailwind in the first section, turning to a headwind for the second part. When the riders turn onto the finishing straight just before the flamme rouge, however, the will have a tailwind all the way to the finish line.

 

The favourites

The sprinters have battled through the two very tough mountain stages with two goals on their mind. First of all they wanted to use the two long days in the saddle to prepare for Milan-Sanremo. Secondly, tomorrow's stage was there as a nice incentive to overcome the climbs. Riders like Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish have not yet had a chance to do a proper sprint in this race and so there is no chance that tomorrow's stage won't end in a bunch sprint.

 

We should be in for a straightforward sprint stage with an early break going up the road while Alberto Contador's Tinkoff-Saxo team set a steady tempo. They will be replaced by Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Lotto Belisol, and Giant-Shimano and we can expect Wout Poels, Frederik Willems, and Tom Stamsnijder spent most of the day on the front, reeling in the break in time for the expected bunch sprint.

 

Barring any crashes, we should finally get the chance to see the first big sprint battle between the three big sprinting giants Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel. The sprint is a real power sprint as the finishing straight is very long and completely flat and as there will even be a tailwind, it will be extremely fast. The wide road makes positioning less important and the length of the finishing straight means that top speed is more important than acceleration. Finally, the tailwind means that aerodynamics will play a less important role.

 

Those three characteristics mean that Marcel Kittel must be the favourite. On a number of occasions, the German has proved that he is the fastest sprinter in the world and has the highest top speed. He is a real power sprinter who loves the very fast sprints like the one tomorrow and he will benefit from the tailwind which makes aerodynamics less important.

 

Giant-Shimano generally have an excellent lead-out train but in this race they don't have their strongest line-up. Key riders like Koen De Kort and Albert Timmer have both been doing Paris-Nice but Kittel is still supported by his usual final man Tom Veelers and the very experienced Roy Curvers. If one adds a powerhouse like Tom Dumoulin and a fast rider like Nikias Arndt, he will have solid support.

 

The team may not be able to go up against the strong formations of Lotto Belisol and Omega Pharma-Quick Step but on a wide finishing straight that is of less importance. Kittel has such an impressive turn of speed that it will be enough to drop him off near the front and then he should be able to do the rest himself. He doesn't seem to suffer any major effects from his stage two crash and he seems to have come through the mountain stages rather fresh. He will eager to get his revenge after his tumble and take his first win since Dubai, making him the favourite to win the stage.

 

Until now, nothing has worked for the new powerful Omega Pharma-Quick Step train that has only delivered Mark Cavendish to a single win, back in February in Algarve. We missed the chance to see whethe the train has improved when Cavendish was hampered by Kittel's crash in stage two, meaning that Mark Renshaw disappeared from the train and Cavendish had to brake hard. On paper, Tony Martin, Matteo Trentin, Alessandro Petacchi, and Renshaw should be able to do an excellent job but it still hasn't been put into practice. With Michal Kwiatkowski out of GC contention, however, we can expect the team to be fully committed to tomorrow's task and this will serve Cavendish well.

 

In addition to the uncertainty over the train, two other factors speak against a Cavendish win. First of all, the sprint doesn't favour the Manxman who prefers sprints with more of an emphasis on acceleration and aerodynamics. Secondly, he doesn't seem to be in peak shape at the moment and suffered much more than his fellow sprinters in the recent mountain stages. Yesterday he was one of the first to get dropped and finished behind the gruppetto and today he finished dead last. He may still be fatigued from those efforts. Nonetheless, Cavendish is so fast and his team so strong that he is still one of the favourites to win.

 

As usual, André Greipel's main advantage is the fact that he has the best lead-out train in the world. Nothing beats Lotto Belisol when it comes to delivering a sprinter and even though they miss Greg Henderson, the combination of Adam Hansen-Marcel Sieberg-Jens Debusschere-Jurgen Roelandts-Greipel has proved to be a very successful one. When Marcel Sieberg takes off at the flamme rouge, the team usually remains in control for the rest of the stage.

 

However, the team was clearly not firing on all cylinders in stage two where they failed to take over from FDJ in the finale. On Friday, however, they proved their superiority but that sprint didn't suit Greipel too well. We will expect the team to again deliver Greipel flawlessly on the front and then it takes a fast sprinter to beat the German who likes the kind of power sprint that is on offer.

 

Greipel is in excellent condition and is probably fresher than both Kittel and Cavendish. It also evident though that he is not as fast as his rivals and if Kittel is not too far behind when the sprint is launched, it will be hard for Greipel to hold him off. However, it will be a bad idea to rule out another win for Greipel and the excellent Lotto Belisol train.

 

In stage two, FDJ proved how far they have come when it comes to organizing a lead-out as the train Murilo Fischer-Yoann Offredo-William Bonnet-Mickael Delage delivered Arnaud Demare perfectly on the front. In the end, the headwind sprint got a bit too long the Frenchman who had to settle for second but it proved that the days when Demare loses out due to poor positioning may finally be over. Demare is one of the fastest sprinters in the business and if he had handled positioning better, his palmares would be much longer. If FDJ manage to position him near the front, he should be up there.

 

In our preview of stage two, we had selected Matteo Pelucchi as our joker and he lived up to our expectations by beating the fastest sprinters in the world. As we already said back then, he has an incredible top speed that allows him to mix it up with the best and he proved so by winning the stage. An element of luck played a role as the headwind killed most of his rivals and he was perfectly positioned on Greipel's wheel but no one can deny that he is fast. Compared to the bigger teams, he doesn't have the strongest lead-out but Heinrich Haussler and Roger Kluge should be able to position him near the front. If that happens, he has a chance of making it two in a row.

 

Sacha Modolo has had a very successful start to the season and on stage two, his Lampre team proved their strength when the train of Filippo Pozzato-Davide Cimolai-Maximilano Richeze went head-to-head with FDJ. Modolo was delivered perfectly on the front but he underestimated the headwind and faded back. Modolo is no pure power sprinter and it will be hard for him to win in this kind of finish. On the other hand, he has a very strong team and will be fresher than most of his rivals. Things have to come together for him to succeed but it is certainly not impossible.

 

Finally, we will select our joker. Sam Bennett has a fantastic start to his career as lead sprinter on NetApp-Endura with several top results in the Tour of Oman and a win in Clasica de Almerica. He proved his speed on stage two where he was fourth and the cooperation with Zakkari Dempster seems to work flawlessly. He is probably not fast enough to win the stage but don't be surprised if he finishes on the podium.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Mark Cavendish, André Greipel

Outsiders: Arnaud Demare, Matteo Pelucchi, Sacha Modolo

Joker: Sam Bennett