The overall win may already be Alberto Contador's but that doesn't mean that there is no excitement left for tomorrow's final time trial. The start list looks like an all-inclusive list of time trial specialists as Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins, Michal Kwiatkowski, Adriano Malori and several other fabulous time trialists prepare themselves for a real showdown on the flat, non-technical 9km out-and-back course in San Benedetto del Tronto. At the same time, there is still much to play for in the top of the standings where the positions in the top 10 are still very much up for grabs.

 

The course

In the first part of the century, the Tirreno-Adriatico always ended with a flat circuit race along the coast in San Benedetto del Tronto while any time trialing often took place on hillier courses earlier in the race. That script was ended after the 2010 edition when Edvald Boasson Hagen was the last sprinter to win in the coastal city.

 

The three most recent editions have all ended with a virtually identical time trial on an out-and-back course along the Adriatic Sea in San Benedetto del Tronto and this will again be the case for the 2014 edition. This year's 9.2km stage is an exact copy of last year's stage and is completely flat and very non-technical.

 

From the start, the riders do three quick turns and from there it is very simple all the way to the finish. The first part is a straight run down the coastal road until the turning point which comes at the 4.75km mark and where the only time check is located. The riders do a U-turn and then it is straight all the way back to the finish.

 

With long, flat roads, this is a course for the true specialists who can use their big power to get up to maximum speed and keep it there for their entire ride and it is no wonder that Fabian Cancellara won the two first editions before being beaten into 4th by Tony Martin, Adriano Malori, and Andrey Amador one year ago. Due to the short distance, the time gaps are usually rather small but in a race that is rarely won by minutes, it usually plays a very decisive role.

 

Last year Vincenzo Nibali managed to defend his overall lead despite losing some time to Chris Froome who took 6th on the stage while one year earlier, Nibali, Roman Kreuziger, and Chris Horner were involved in an exciting three-rider battle for the win.

 

The weather

The riders will make a clean sweep of sunny days in central Italy as the weather forecasts again predict bright sunshine for the entire stage. It will be slightly colder than today's very unusual temperatures but the riders can still expect a very pleasant 21 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from an easterly directions, meaning that the riders will have a crosswind for most of the stage, with it being a bit more of a cross-headwind on the way out and a cross-tailwind on the way back. The wind should pick up a bit after the early starters before fading a bit again towards the end of the time trial, meaning that the riders in the middle may have the most difficult conditions. However, the differences should be almost unnoticeable and we should be in for a rather fair battle between the best time trialists in the world.

 

The favourites

The Dubai Tour offered the first small battle between the time trialing giants as that race offered a flat, non-technical race against the clock for a field that included the likes of Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, Adriano Malori, and Taylor Phinney. At that point, however, the riders were not yet in peak condition and the result may be more a reflection of their fitness level than their actual time trialing prowess. For tomorrow's test, the winner of that stage, Phinney, won't be in attendance but instead riders like Michal Kwiatkowski and Bradley Wiggins will make sure that the field is no less competitive.

 

At this time of the season, the riders are much closer to their best form and so the result of tomorrow's time trial should be much more "honest". The flat course doesn't require any technical or climbing skills as it is flat and has very few corners. It will be all about power and pushing the big gears down the coastal road on a parcous that suits the true specialists. This has been reflected in the results of the first three editions of this time trial and this means that we will have to look to the really powerful riders to find the favourites for the stage win.

 

After being beaten in both Dubai and Algarve,Tony Martin has had a bad start to his season after a year where he was only defeated in three time trials: in the Tour de Romandie mountains prologue and the hilly Tour and Vuelta TTs. The early season has indicated that he may be about to embark on a season like the one he had in 2012 when he never found his best levels and won very few time trials. For him to be beaten by several riders in both Algarve and Dubai on flat power courses is very unusual and must be a bit concerning for the Omega Pharma-Quick Step camp.

 

In this race, however, things seem to have turned around. Omega Pharma-Quick Step not only won the team time trial, they crushed the opposition. On paper, their team was not as strong as they had one year ago and for them to deliver such a splendid performance means that their main powerhouses must have been firing on all cylinders. Mark Cavendish said that Martin almost did half the work himself and this indicates that he is back to his best.

 

The trend has continued in the road stages. On Sunday, his fast tempo on the Passo Lanciano whittled the front group down to only around 30 riders. Today he took an impressive turn on the front for the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team and it was his fast pace that played a big role in keeping Cavendish out of trouble in the crash-marred finale

 

At last year's world championships, Martin proved that he is currently in a class of his own. The course may be a bit short to his liking but he has proved that he is also hard to beat even on the shorter distances. It is no coincidence that he won the exact same time trial one year ago and as things indicate that he may have returned to his best level, he is our favourite to win.

 

However, a host of riders are ready to capitalize from any signs of weakness from Martin. One of his biggest rivals comes from within his own team as Michal Kwiatkowski has been riding excellently all year. His showings in Mallorca, Algarve, and Strade Bianche were simply amazing and even though the climbing got a bit too tough for him over the weekend, his condition won't have disappeared.

 

Kwiatkowski has only done one time trial this year. In Algarve, he surprised most pundits by beating the likes of Adriano Malori and Martin on a flat power course where they even had a strong tailwind. That course didn't suit the tiny Kwiatkowski at all but at the moment he is so strong that he still managed to hold off the bigger riders.

 

Tomorrow's course doesn't suit him too well either as it is both a bit too short and too flat to be a perfect fit. At the same time, his hard riding in recent days may have set him back a bit compared to the specialists who have been able to save a bit more energy and this may be costly for him. Nonetheless, it would be unwise to rule out one of this season's in-form riders.

 

Bradley Wiggins has had a very anonymous start to his season and he hasn't shown much in Tirreno-Adriatico either. He is quietly building his form for his first objective which comes at the Paris-Roubaix and he is clearly still not in his best condition. On the other hand, he is such an amazing time trialist that he should be in the mix tomorrow.

 

With the Paris-Roubaix coming up within a few weeks, his condition cannot be too far away and with the cobbles being his first goal, he will be heavier than he was in his skinny days. That will suit him well on tomorrow's powerful course. In 2014, he has only done a single time trial, in Andalusia where he failed to win the opening prologue. That stage, however, was very technical and didn't do him many favours.

 

Two factors weigh against a Wiggins win. First of all, there is the concern over his condition which is further emphasized by Sky's poor team time trial performance. Secondly, Wiggins has performed better in longer time trials in recent years and in fact he hasn't won a time trial of less than 10km since his win in the 2010 Giro prologue. Tomorrow's stage may be a bit too short to suit him perfectly but there is no doubt that he will be motivated to give it a go and compared to his major rivals he will have had it easier the last few days.

 

12 months ago Adriano Malori finished just 6 seconds behind Martin and this year he will be eager to take his revenge. The Italian has had a very good start to the season as he won the flat San Luis time trial and was 2nd behind Kwiatkowski in Algarve. Malori specializes in short, flat time trials of 10-20km and so tomorrow's stage couldn't suit him much better. Movistar's excellent team time trial is a clear indication of his form and he has also been climbing solidly in recent days. There is no doubt that he will be fired up for tomorrow's stage and he could very well continue his excellent start with Movistar by taking another win.

 

Fabian Cancellara has won this stage twice and he will again be one of the contenders. In recent years, however, he has been doing less specific time trial work to focus more on the classics and the results have been evident. He has been clearly pushed into third in the time trialing hierarchy by Martin and Wiggins and this was evident in last year's world championships where he was in excellent conditions.

 

Cancellara's fine showing in Sunday's hard stage indicates that he is about to hit his best condition for the classics but this won't necessarily be an advantage in tomorrow's short stage which is a completely different kind of effort. Last year he was only 4th just weeks before dominating on the cobbles and we doubt that he will perform much better this year. There is no doubt that he will give it his best shot and it is certainly not impossible that he will take the win but this year he is more of an outsider than an actual favourite.

 

Jonathan Castroviejo has been climbing excellently in this race so far. On Saturday, he almost single-handedly caught back the early breakaway on the long stretch between the final two climbs and yesterday he finished an amazing 25th in the big stage to Guardiagrele. This proves that he is in excellent condition and he should be up there in tomorrow's stage. 12 months ago he was 5th and as a past winner of the Tour de Romandie prologue he likes these short, flat courses. It will be difficult for him to take the win but don't be surprised if he ends up on the podium.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Giant-Shimano youngster Tobias Ludvigsson has been riding excellent time trials in the past few months. He crushed the opposition in Etoile de Besseges earlier this year and last year he was an impressie 3rd in the Ster ZLM Toer prologue despite riding under torrential rain while the other riders in the top 10 had all had dry conditions on the technical course. In the Tour Mediteraneen, he ended the stage on his road bike but still managed to take 6th. Tomorrow he faces his first big test against the biggest names and we wouldn't be surprised to see him being close to the podium,

 

His teammate Tom Dumoulin has also stepped up his time trialing during the last year. In 2013 he did some excellent time trials in both the Tour of Belgium and the Eneco Tour and this year he was second in the Andalucia prologue. Like Ludvigsson he will have spent a fair bit of energy today when he tried to get Marcel Kittel back in contention but he should be up there again tomorrow.

 

After a difficult start to his road career, Michael Hepburn is now totally focused on the road and this has paid dividends. He beat his teammate Luke Durbridge at the Australian championships and he beat the likes of Cancellara in the Tour of Qatar time trial. He had a crash earlier in this race and this could hamper him a bit but if he can confirm recent trends, he will deliver an excellent performance.

 

Daniele Bennati may be mostly known as a sprinter but in short flat time trials he is excellent as well. He was second behind Cancellara in this stage a few years ago and he has won a similar stage in Circuit Cycliste Sarthe. In Qatar, he was third in the time trial and things indicate that he is back to his best after a difficult 2013 season. He is unlikely to win the stage but don't be surprised to find Bennati in the top 10.

 

Finally, we will shortly mention the GC battle. Alberto Contador won't lose his overall lead on this short course and we expect a very good performance from the Spaniard who is clearly back to a level that is not too far from his best. He won't win on this kind of course but in Algarve he was 4th on a similar route and he should confirm that trend tomorrow.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo is likely to make it a 1-2 as Roman Kreuziger will have no trouble beating Nairo Quintana by 7 seconds and the Colombian needs to stay aware as the final podium spot may also be in danger. Jean-Christophe Peraud is not far behind but should be able to take back 32 seconds on this course. The Frenchman should, however, take a comfortable 4th in this race.

 

In general, the top 10 is littered with riders who are generally not good time trialists. Julian Arredondo, Mikel Nieve, and Robert Kiserlovski will all find it hard to keep their positions and there should be a chance for Daniel Moreno, Domenico Pozzovivo, and Michele Scarponi to move up even though none of them are time trial specialsits or suited to this kind of course.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Tony Martin

Other winner candidates: Michal Kwiatkowski, Bradley Wiggins

Outsiders: Adriano Malori, Fabian Cancellara, Jonathan Castroviejo

Jokers: Tobias Ludvigsson, Tom Dumoulin, Michael Hepburn, Daniele Bennati