After a well-deserved rest day, the Tour de France continues with the first of two lumpy stages that lots of riders have marked out as their biggest objectives for the rest of the race. With the second half mostly made up of mountains, sprint stages or time trials, tomorrow is a key day for the attackers but at the same time Peter Sagan has set his sights on a sprint finish from a reduced group in what is one of his few remaining chances to grab that elusive stage victory.

 

The course

After a well-deserved rest day, the riders start their journey from the Vosges to the Alps with a 187.5km stage from Besancon to Oyonnax. The hard days in the mountains are behind the riders for now and we are back into flatter terrain. A tricky finale, however, means that this is definitely not a stage for the pure sprinters.

 

The stage consists of a long southerly run along mostly flat roads but the roads gradually get a bit more undulating. After the easy start, there are a couple of gradual, non-categorized ascents at the midpoint but they will have little impact on the racing. The intermediate sprint comes at the 89km mark, has a tricky corner less than 1km from the line and is slightly uphill.

 

Oyonnax is located on the outskirts of the Alps and so the terrain is pretty hilly near the finish. Instead of following the direct road to the line, the riders will take on a small circuit that includes 4 smaller categorized climbs inside the final 56km of the race. First up is the Cote de Rogna (category 3, 7.6km, 4.9%) which is followed by Cote de Choux (category 4, 1.7km, 6.5%) and Cote de Desertin (category 3, 3.1km, 5.2%) in quick succession. The next part is mostly downhill before the riders hit the bottom of the Cote d’Echallon (category 3, 3km, 6.6%), summiting 19.5km from the finish. There’s only a very small climb in the final part that are mostly downhill with only the final 4 kilometres being relatively flat. The finale is not very technical as the riders go straight through two roundabouts around the 2km to go mark and then it’s a straight 1700m almost completely flat road to the finish.

 

Oyonnax has often hosted stage finishes in the Tour de l’Ain, with Antonio Cruz, Jose Joaquin Rojas and Grega Bole winning stages within the last decade. Last year Elia Viviani won a sprint finish after a hilly day in the saddle at the end of stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The first half of the Tour de France has been one of the coldest and rainiest in recent years but luckily it seems that things will improve in the second week. The riders enjoyed a nice rest day and tomorrow they can expect bright sunshine for the lumpy run to Oyonnax. Furthermore, it will be a lot warmer than it has been so far as the temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of 24 degrees.

 

There will only be a very light northwesterly wind that will pick up a bit as the day goes on. This means thet the riders will first have a crosswind but will enjoy a cross-tailwind for most of the day. On the final hilly loop, the riders will first have a cross-tailwind and then a crosswind before they turn into a headwind for the final climb and the descent down to Oyonnax. On the finishing straight, they will have a cross-tailwind.

 

The favourites

The GC battle will be put on hold for a few days before it resumes on Friday with the first of two big stages in the Alps and this will give room for the stage hunters to excel in stages 11 and 12. The final 9 stages are almost all suited to sprinters, climbers or time triallists, meaning that the next two days are crucial for most of the peloton.

 

Stages 11 and 12 both have hilly finales but the former is definitely the hardest of the pair. While the first part is pretty easy to control, the amount of climbing in the finale should definitely not be underestimated and should be the scene for some aggressive and exciting racing.

 

The dynamics of the stage will be determined by two teams that have made this stage their highlight for the rest of the race. Peter Sagan is running out of opportunities to take that elusive stage victory and tomorrow is his best chance in the rest of the race. There is no doubt that his Cannondale team will do their utmost to keep things together for a sprint from a reduced peloton but it will be a tough ask to control things in this terrain.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have no sprinter or GC rider in this race and their goal is to win a stage on the hilly days. This means that their Tour de France is likely to come down to the next two stages and stage 11 is definitely their biggest goal for the rest of the race. Simon Gerrans is getting better after his crash and will be their main rider but unlike Cannondale they have lots of cards to play and don’t have to focus solely on a sprint finish.

 

Most of the other teams will go into this stage with the plan to attack as they know that a breakaway has a big chance to make it in this hilly terrain. We can expect the race to get off to an extremely fast start and it is likely to be one of those days when it is full gas for more than an hour before the break finally takes off. In this part of the race, Cannondale and Orica-GreenEDGE will have to be on their toes to make sure that the break is neither too big nor too strong and they will be aided by the flat start which makes it easier to control. On the other, the number of riders that want to attack means that it could end up being a pretty big group that finally gets clear.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE are likely to have a two-pronged attack as they will probably try to join the break while also keeping something in reserve for a sprint finish. Hence, it would be no bad idea for Cannondale to focus on the Australian team and make sure that none of their riders get any room at all. Orica-GreenEDGE cannot afford to let this opportunity slip away and if they miss the break, Cannondale will have an ally in their quest to keep set up a sprint finish.

 

Furthermore, this is one of the best chances to win a stage for most of the teams and so Cannondale may get a bit of help from the squads that eventually miss the break. If more teams work together, they should be able to keep things under control in the first part which is not too tough.

 

Sagan doesn’t have the strongest team at his disposal and after the loss of Ted King, they are even down to 8 riders. The hilly finale is very hard to control and so the team needs to keep riders like Alessandro De Marchi and Marco Marcato in reserve for the second part. Like so often before, Sagan was defeated in stage 7 because he was isolated and so felt that he needed to attack not to come under attack in the flat run-in as it had happened in stage 2. This took the sting out of his legs for the sprint and this time he needs to have teammates at his side.

 

For us, the key is whether Orica-GreenEDGE make it into the break or not. If they do, we doubt that Cannondale can keep things together to set up a sprint finish. If they don’t, the combination of two teams – plus some added firepower from other teams that may have missed the move – should be enough to brings things back together in the finale.

 

If Cannondale have to surrender, the finale will be pretty calm for the peloton as Astana will probably just set a steady pace to the finish while the GC riders stay attentive near the front. If the early break is caught, the finale will be extremely hectic as we can expect lots of attacks in the finale. Orica-GreenEDGE will definitely try to make it hard on the climbs and Cannondale may lend a hand too. If Sagan is on his own, he may even be forced to respond to some of them himself and as it was the case in stage 2, he will be vulnerable for late attacks after the top of the final climb. This time, however, it is mostly downhill and nobody will be able to drop Sagan on the descent. Furthermore, the longer distance to the finish means that there is more time for his teammates to rejoin the peloton in time for the flat section near the end. Hence, a sprint finish is a more likely outcome than it was in stages 2 and 7.

 

If Cannondale play it smartly and keep Orica-GreenEDGE under control, we will put our money on a sprint finish. If that scenario, the main question is which fast riders will be able to make it over the climbs. The climbing is a lot harder than it was in stage 3 and the group that reaches the finish should be a pretty small one.

 

The selective nature of the stage is definitely in favour of Sagan. On such climbs, no one is able to drop the talented Slovakian who put his climbing skills on show yesterday when he went on the attack on a very tough day in the Vosges. Among the riders that are likely to survive the climbing, he is definitely the fastest and even though we haven’t been too impressed with his sprinting in 2014 he will probably be the man to beat if it comes down to a sprint finish.

 

Sagan’s main challenge will be to remain calm in the finale and not waste his energy as he did in stage 7 and stage 6 of the Tour de Suisse. Those stages were almost identical as the Slovakian attacked in the finale and then lacked the necessary strength to keep up with Matteo Trentin in the sprints which were both won by the Italian after he had been given formidable lead-outs.

 

As said, the final part should be a bit easier to control for Sagan as it is mostly downhill but this time he needs to play his cards a bit wiser. If Orica-GreenEDGE have more than one rider in the group, they will not throw away all their opportunities and so he just needs to keep the Australian team under control. There is no reason for him to respond to all attacks himself – even if he has no teammates at his side.

 

If he has learnt the lesson from his past mistakes, Sagan has a formidable chance to win this one. The main challenge for him will be to keep things under control in the beginning of the stage and for Alessandro De Marchi and Marco Marcato to make it over the climbs with their leader. If he has a few teammates at his side in the finale, he will be hard to beat.

 

His main rival is definitely Simon Gerrans. The Australian is a master in picking select stages and achieving his goals but in this race he has been set back by his crash in stage 1. In stage 7, he proved that he is getting better and his Orica-GreenEDGE team seem to be pretty optimistic. Last Friday he finished fifth but did a big mistake as he was purely positioned in the sprint.

 

The finale of this stage is a lot tougher which should definitely be in Gerrans’ favour. In the past, he has won bunch sprint and last year he beat Sagan in a sprint to win stage 3. Gerrans’ sprinting skills definitely shouldn’t be underestimated and he is one of the select few who has the speed to beat Sagan after a hard day of racing.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have several cards to play as Jens Keukeleire, Simon Clarke and Michael Albasini are all suited to this kind of racing and they will try to make things as hard as possible in the finale. In the ideal scenario, Gerrans will have Albasini at his side to lead him out like Daryl Impey did it in Calvi 12 months ago. If Gerrans is set up perfectly for the sprint, he will be hard to beat.

 

In stage 7, we made Matteo Trentin an outsider for the win and he paid back our confidence by sprinting to a stage win for the second year in a row. Tomorrow’s stage is another great opportunity for the Italian who is perfectly suited to this kind of finale.

 

His Omega Pharma-Quick Step team is unlikely to put all their eggs into one basket and they will probably try to send riders like Tony Martin and Jan Bakelants on the attack and Trentin may even give it a try himself. If it comes down to a sprint finish, however, he will be one of the favourites.

 

The finale is a bit harder than it was in stage 7 and there is a risk that it will be too tough for Trentin. If he is there in the finale, however, he can expect fantastic support as Michal Kwiatkowski and Tony Martin should be able to give him the perfect lead-out. No riders can expect that kind of support in the finale and this will make Trentin a danger man.

 

Another rider who suddenly comes into play, is Daniele Bennati. Until now he has only been focused on keeping Alberto Contador safe but now he will actively be seeking stage wins. Bennati is an excellent climber and there is a solid chance that he will be able to make it over the climbs with the best. He may no longer be as fast as he once was but in a reduced group, he will be one of the quickest. If he manages to position himself right in the finale, he could save Tinkoff-Saxo’s Tour two days after Contador’s withdrawal.

 

The peloton is loaded with riders who excels in this kind of terrain and that will be great stage winner picks from a breakaway. Giovanni Visconti has had a slow start to his season after he fractured his leg in the Down Under Classic but now he seems to be getting into his best form. He did a fantastic performance in yesterday’s stage and Movistar have traditionally allowed their riders to go on the attack in the intermediate stages. Visconti has had a rest day to recover from yesterday’s exploits and this stage is perfectly suited to his characteristics. He is hard to drop on such climbs and in case of a sprint from a small group, he will be hard to beat.

 

We have already pointed to Michael Albasini as a potential stage winner several times and this stage is another great opportunity for the Swiss who is a master in winning stages in WorldTour races. He still hasn’t added a Tour victory to his palmares and he will be the Orica-GreenEDGE back-up plan if Gerrans isn’t up for the challenge. However, his biggest chance to win the stage is by going on the attack and his team is likely to try to join the break while keeping Gerrans safe for the sprint. Albasini excels in this terrain and he has a very fast sprint to finish it off.

 

Greg Van Avermaet is riding excellently well at the moment and proved so when he played a key role in stage 8 which should usually have been a bit too tough for him. This stage is perfectly suited to the classics specialists who can both wait for a sprint finish and go on the attack. Van Avermaet has already finished on the podium twice and tomorrow could be the day when he finally takes that elusive stage victory.

 

Tony Gallopin may have lost his yellow jersey but there is a chance that he will take it back. It would be stupid not to give it a try as Astana would be pleased to allow the Frenchman another stint in yellow until Friday’s stage. Gallopin has had two hard days and may be starting to feel the fatigue but he is definitely riding really well at the moment. This stage suits him perfectly and with his fast sprint he has the skills to finish it off.

 

We have already pointed to Cyril Gautier several times and this stage is another good one for the Europcar rider. The Frenchman is very aggressive and one of the best climbers in the race and he also has a very good sprint from a small group. He has already been very active in the breaks and if he makes it again tomorrow, he will be one of the favourites.

 

Julien Simon crashed in stage 1 and since then he has been licking his wounds. However, he is now getting better and this stage is perfectly suited to his characteristics. Being a solid climber with a fast sprint, he can both go on the attack and wait for a sprint finish.

 

Sylvain Chavanel seems to be riding well at the moment and has finally found his best legs after a disappointing start to the season. This stage suits him well as he has the skills to get clear in the flat first section and finish it off on the climbs. He climbs solidly in this terrain and has a fast sprint to finish it off.

 

Jan Bakelants is one of the escape artists of the peloton but so far he hasn’t made it into the right breakaway. Tomorrow he will definitely give it a short and the hilly finale suits him well. He is not very fast in a sprint and will probably have to get clear on his own. However, he is a very wily rider who knows how to time a late attack as he did 12 months ago in Ajaccio.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Alexander Kristoff was riding excellently well in the first part of the race but has now been suffering from stomach problems for a few days. He is getting better but may not yet be able to mix it up with the best in this tough finale. This time, however, there is some time to get back if he is dropped on the final climb and in stage 7 he was not far off the mark. If Kristoff is there in the sprint, he will be the favourite.

 

John Degenkolb had made this stage one of his big goals but after suffering a muscle injury on the cobbles, he has been in a lot of pain. He is getting a lot better and is now a lot more optimistic but this stage may still come too early for him. We doubt that he will be there in the finale but with his improving signs, he can definitely not be ruled out.

 

Bryan Coquard is another sprinter who has the skills to handle this terrain. It may be a bit too tough for the tiny Frenchman but if he is on a great day, he has proved that he can overcome this kind of climbs. He has been sprinting excellent well and at the end of such a hard race he won’t be bother by his poor positioning skills. Keep an eye on the Europcar jersey to see if Coquard can keep up with the best in the finale.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: Simon Gerrans, Matteo Trentin

Outsiders: Daniele Bennati, Giovanni Visconti, Michael Albasini, Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Julien Simon, Cyril Gautier, Sylvain Chavanel, Jan Bakelants

Jokers: Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Bryan Coquard