For the second year in a row, Rafal Majka saved the race for Tinkoff-Saxo with a big solo win in the mountains while the GC riders settled for a ceasefire as Astana’s attack didn’t produce the expected outcome. That won’t be the case tomorrow when the riders will tackle the hardest stage in the Pyrenees with three tough climbs leading to a big battle on the famous ascent to Plateau de Beille which has often been a place for the later winner to shine.

 

The course

As it is often the case, the organizers have saved the hardest stage to the end of the Pyrenean adventure. While stages 10 and 11 both had the major climbing located at the end of courses, stage 12 is the only really big mountain stage in this part of the country as it has big climbs all day and ends with a tough summit finish on one of the most feared climbs in the Pyrenees. Furthermore, the distance of 195km makes it the longest mountain stage of the race and if it hadn’t come at this relatively early point of the race, it would probably have deserved the status of being the queen stage of the race.

 

The stage starts in Lannemezan on the outskirts of the Pyrenees and brings the riders over 195km to a summit finish at the top of the Plateau de Beille climb. Throughout the entire stage, the riders will be travelling in a southeasterly direction as they head straight into the Pyrenean heartland. Like in the previous stages, it takes a little while for them to get to the first mountain but in this stage they only have to do 47km of flat racing before the climbing starts. Along the way they will contest the intermediate sprint already at the 20km mark. It is a mainly flat sprint on a long straight road with just a very small climb summiting 1.5km from the line.

 

The hostilities start when the riders hit the category 2 Col de Portet-d’Aspet (4.3km, 9.7%) which is infamously known as the scene of Fabio Casartelli’s fatal crash in 1995. This year the riders will tackle it from the opposite direction, meaning that they will pass the Stele Fabio Casartelli on the way up. After the descent, there’s a short valley section before the riders get to the category 1 Col de la Core (14.1km, 5.7%) whose summit is located 102km from the finish. After a relatively easy start, it is a very regular ascent with a constant gradient of 6-7%.

 

After the descent, there’s 25km section in the valley before the riders get to the category 1 Port de Lers (12.9km, 6%) which is a bit more irregular with 3 easy kilometres at the bottom and then four tough kilometres averaging 7-9%. The final part is again easier with just two hard kilometres, including the final one that averages 7.9%.

 

Again the descent is followed by a pretty long valley section of 23.5km that leads to the bottom of the famous category HC Plateau de Beille (15.8km, 7.9%) which is one of the hardest climbs of the entire race. The first 5km average almost 9% and from there the gradient stays between 7.2% and 9.5% on a climb that leaves little room for recovery. The final 1.8km are easier as the average gradient is 6.3% before the riders get to the final 800m of 2.5%. The road is winding in the finale, with the final bend coming just 60m from the line on a 6m wide road.

 

Plateau de Beille is famously known as the climb of the Tour champions as the winner of the ascent has mostly gone on to stand on the top step of the podium in Paris. Marco Pantani was the fastest in 1998 while Lance Armstrong took the win in 2002. Two years later the American was again the strongest while it was a young Alberto Contador who won a thrilling battle against Michael Rasmussen in 2007. Those riders all won the Tour that same year but the streak was broken when the climb last featured in 2011. Here Jelle Vanendert made a surprise attack on its slopes to take the biggest win of his career. A decade ago, it often featured in the Route du Sud where Levi Leipheimer, Francesco Casagrande and Lance Armstrong won stages in 2002, 2001 and 1999 respectively.

 

The weather

The heat has had a big impact on the racing in the Pyrenees and there will be no respite for the riders on the final day in the mountain range. It will be another day of bright sunshine with only a very small chance of a shower towards the end of the stage. Importantly, the temperature in the valley will reach a maximum of a massive 36 degrees.

 

There will only be a very light breeze from a westerly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a headwind all day, including on the first three climbs. At the bottom of the final climb, they will turn into a crosswind which will be blowing from the right for the final part of the stage.

 

The favourites

As expected, none of the main favourites decided to attack in today’s stage as the relatively easy finale made it almost impossible to finish things off in a successful way. It was a dangerous stage where you could potentially lose the race but there wasn’t much to gain. Astana tried to see whether anyone was on a bad day but as none of the main contenders showed signs of weakness, it ended as a ceasefire.

 

One of the reasons for the defensive riding was the prospect of tackling an even harder stage tomorrow. There is no doubt that this stage is the hardest of the entire race and as it comes at the end of a tough triptych in the Pyrenees, massive time gaps can be made. The stage both includes the hardest summit finish of the race and more big climbs than any other stage and that makes it a day for the pure climbers and stage race specialists who recover well at this late point of a grand tour.

 

There is no doubt that the GC riders will battle it out on the climb to Plateau de Beille whose steep gradients have the potential to do a lot of battle but there is no guarantee that they will be fighting for the stage win too. This is the kind of big days in the mountains where a strong break is likely to get clear and it requires a very strong team to bring it back together. On the other hand, Plateau de Beille is one of the legendary climbs in the Tour and the big names all want to win here and that means that it could both be a day for an attacker and for a GC rider to claim the win.

 

In any case, we should see a repeat of today’s scenario where it took a long time for the break to be formed. Everybody knows that it can be a good day for group to make it to the finish and so all teams want to have a rider in the break. That also goes for the GC teams as it is tactical advantage to have riders up the road in this kind of stage with several big climbs.

 

Like today, the first part of the stage is flat and this makes it a bit of a lottery who’s going to make it if the break gets clear before we get to the first mountain. However, the climbing starts a bit earlier than it did it did today and this means that there’s a solid chance that no one has managed to get clear by the time we get to the Col du Portet d’Aspet. If that’s the case, we are guaranteed to have a very strong group breakaway on the climbs. Even if another group has already escaped, it will be possible for strong climbers to bridge the gap, just like Daniel Martin did today.

 

The intermediate sprint comes early in the race and could come into play. Today André Greipel lost the green jersey and he will be keen to strike back. With a fast start, it will require some tough work but it won’t be impossible for Lotto Soudal to keep it together for the sprint and if they manage to do so, there’s a big chance that the German will be back in green tomorrow evening.

 

Today it was pretty clear that none of the big teams wanted to go for the stage win and Astana mainly rode hard to test their rivals. Tomorrow things may be different but it will still be hard to bring a strong break back. Sky have indicated that they plan to ride defensively so we expect them to take is as easy as possible. They will be keen to have Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe riding on the front for most of the day.

 

In this kind of stage, there’s always a chance that top 10 contenders join the break and if that’s the case, some of the teams that feel their position is under threat, may start to chase. However, the key teams are certainly Tinkoff-Saxo and Movistar and it will be their approach that determined whether the break will make it.

 

Today Alberto Contador looked a lot stronger and Tinkoff-Saxo have gained a lot of confidence from Rafal Majka’s win. Contador is known as a fighter and we won’t be surprised if they try to make the race hard. He knows that he is so far back that he needs to grab every opportunity to take back time and if he feels good, he will try tomorrow. Roman Kreuziger is not at his best but Michael Rogers and Majka can clearly do a lot of damage.

 

It will be very interesting to see how Movistar approach the stage. On one hand, it will be very hard for them to beat Chris Froome in a direct battle so their best chance to win the stage will probably be to send one of their strong climbers on the attack. On the other hand, they have the chance to put two riders on the final podium and would like to put Tejay van Garderen under pressure. That indicates that they are likely to try to make things hard on some of the earlier climbs.

 

On paper, this could be a day for a long-distance attack from one of the favourites. However, that is unlikely to happen. There are long sections of valley roads between the final climbs and here the riders will have a headwind. It will be a suicide mission to try to make a big attack early in the stage so we will have to wait for the final climb to see a big battle.

 

We wouldn’t be surprised to see Vincenzo Nibali give it a try though. However, Sky have a lot of respect for the defending champion who is still a possible podium contender if he gains back some time by going on the attack. We doubt that anyone will allow him to get clear so he probably has to settle for another time loss on the final mountain. However, that might be a blessing in disguise as it could open the door for attacks later in the race.

 

It’s fifty-fifty whether the break will make it and it all depends on Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo. However, it won’t be easy to bring a strong group back so we will again go for a breakaway win.

 

Today we pointed to Pierre Rolland as our favourite. The Europcar missed the move and instead it was his teammate Thomas Voeckler who joined the attack. However, there is no doubt that he still has big goals and tomorrow’s stage suits him even better. The longer distance is perfect for him and he likes to go on the long-distance attacks on days with several climbs.

 

The flat first part doesn’t suit Rolland but as the climbing comes closer to the start, he will have a better chance to join the right move. Today he confirmed what he already showed yesterday: that he is one of the best climbers in the race. It will require a mammoth effort for anyone to bring him back, especially if he is joined by the likes of Cyril Gautier, Perrig Quemeneur, Romain Sicard and Voeckler who can help him in the valley sections. He is no danger to the podium contenders who won’t be worried if he goes on the attack. If he makes it, it is hard to imagine that anyone will be able to beat him on the final climb and so he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

If Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo go full gas and bring it back together for a battle between the favourites, it is very hard to imagine that it won’t be a second win for Chris Froome. The Brit has proved that he is in a class of his own and the way he distanced his rivals was truly impressive. History shows that there is a chance that he will fade in the final week but at this point of the race he is usually hugely consistent. It is impossible that the climbing hierarchy has changed dramatically since Tuesday.

 

On paper, Froome can allow himself to ride defensively but that is unlikely to happen. In 2013, he proved that he is prepared to attack whenever he has the slightest possibility. He clearly feels that he is the strongest rider at the moment and he wants to extend his advantage as much as possible. There is no guarantee that he will use his Sky train to make things hard but when the real war starts, it will be a surprise if he doesn’t drop everybody else on the road to Plateau de Beille.

 

Today Astana desperately tried to get a rider in the break but their mission failed. Instead, they tried to make things hard and it was a brutally strong Tanel Kangert who blew the peloton to pieces. With Nibali again showing signs of weakness, they will definitely try to attack in tomorrow’s stage and Kangert seems to be their best card. He is clearly not showing signs of fatigue after the Giro and he is strong both on the flats and on the climbs. He has proved that he can win big mountain stages in the Tour de Suisse and he might be the rider who saves the day for Astana.

 

Already yesterday we pointed to Adam Yates as a good breakaway pick. Today the Brit stayed with the best for a long time but in the end he finished far back in 57th. That clearly indicates that he saved energy for tomorrow where he plans to go on the attack. In the first two mountain stages, he has proved that he is among the best climbers in the world and he is still fresh after injury spoiled his spring season. Most importantly he has shown great maturity in the way he handles the climbs and this makes him a very dangerous rider for tomorrow.

 

Lampre-Merida got a serious blow as Rui Costa abandoned the race today. Now they have a complete focus on stage wins and their man for the mountains is Rafael Valls. All year he has proved that he is strong enough to be with the best and he confirmed that assessment with a great ride in stage 10. Today he saved energy and there is no doubt that he plans to go on a big attack in tomorrow’s stage.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo’s main goal is to ride for GC with Robert Gesink but they also plan to go on the attack. Laurens Ten Dam has had a remarkable comeback from an injury that nearly forced him out of the race. In the first two mountain stages he has been with the best and he has done nothing to hide that he aims to win a stage in this race. He is not very strong on the flats but with the climbing starting relatively early, he has a better chance to join the right break.

 

Ryder Hesjedal has had a quiet race so far but nothing suggests that he is riding badly. In fact he is very confident that he will be able to grab the opportunities in the mountains and he is very good at getting into the right breakaways. He put his aggressive nature on show in last year’s Vuelta and with no GC hopes for Cannondale-Garmin, he will be ready to strike.

 

Of course Nairo Quintana also deserves to be mentioned as a possible stage winner. The Colombian was far behind Froome yesterday and it is hard to imagine that things have turned around. However, he won’t completely write the Colombian off and if anyone is going to beat the Brit, it has to be the Movistar leader.

 

Richie Porte surprised himself in stage 10. He had been too confident about his form but he turned out to be the second best rider in the race. Today he did a lot of work and the fatigue means that it will be hard for him to back it up with another similar performance. However, if Froome has just the smallest chance to let his teammate win the stage, he will definitely do so.

 

Julian Arredondo finished in the gruppetto in today’s stage. It is very hard to gauge how he is going. On one hand he may have been saving energy for tomorrow’s stage which is important for the mountains classification which is one of his big goals. On the others hand, things haven’t been good for the Colombian since he finished last year’s Giro. If he has a chance, he will go for it in a stage that suits him well.

 

Simon Yates also finished in the gruppetto. The Brit has been complaining about a sore throat which explains why he has not been at the level he showed at the start of the race. However, there is a solid chance that he has been saving energy for a big attack in the mountains. All year he can be up there with the best. If he has recovered from his illness, he will be a danger man.

 

Rigoberto Uran is clearly not in his best condition but he is not riding badly. The Colombian lost a lot of time in today’s stage and has clearly shelved his GC plans. This opens the door for attacks and he will be eager to strike back with a great ride tomorrow.

 

Today Andrew Talansky showed growing and this has clearly boosted his confidence. He is no longer in GC contention and will now take aim at a stage win. His condition seems to be growing and he is very good at gauging his effort. He is the rider who is strong enough to finish off a great solo ride in the mountains.

 

Ten Dam is not the only LottoNL card. Steven Kruijswijk is clearly not at his Giro level but he is not riding badly. He has set his sights on the mountains jersey and this makes tomorrow’s stage a very important goal. In the Giro, he proved that he knows how to hit the right breakaway and he obviously has the climbing legs to finish it off.

 

Today Rafal Majka stole show for Tinkoff-Saxo. Tomorrow Michael Rogers could get his chance. The Australian looked strong in today’s stage and his team will be keen to have a rider in the early break. The veteran is probably their best card and if the circumstances are right, he will be given the green light to go for the win.

 

As said, Movistar’s best chance to win the stage is by joining a breakaway. Jose Herrada and Gorka Izagirre are probably their best cards as Jonathan Castroviejo usually has to stay with Quintana. Both are riding reasonably well but the latter is often very inconsistent. Today he had a bad day but if he can rediscover the legs he had yesterday, he will be a danger man.

 

Today Serge Pauwels put MTN-Qhubeka in the spotlight. Tomorrow it will be the time for their two South Africans to shine. Louis Meintjes and Jacques van Rensburg have been strong enough to match the best but they have a hard time joining the break on the flats. With the climbing starting a bit earlier, they have a better chance tomorrow.

 

Finally, Robert Gesink deserves a mention. In the unlikely case that Froome is unable to drop Quintana, the tactical battle could open the door for a surprise win. Gesink is clearly riding extremely well at the moment and he is not an immediate podium threat. This will make his less marked and so he has a chance to make a late attack.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Pierre Rolland (breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Tanel Kangert (breakaway)

Outsiders: Adam Yates (breakaway), Rafael Valls (breakaway), Laurens Ten Dam (breakaway), Ryder Hesjedal (breakaway), Nairo Quintana, Richie Porte

Jokers: Julian Arredondo (breakaway), Simon Yates (breakaway), Rigoberto Uran (breakaway), Andrew Talansky (breakaway), Steven Kruijswijk (breakaway), Michael Rogers (breakaway), Jose Herrada (breakaway), Gorka Izagirre (breakaway), Jacques van Rensburg (breakaway), Louis Meintjes (breakaway), Robert Gesink