Vincenzo Nibali has imposed his dominance on the Tour de France but people tend to forget that we have not yet had a single stage in the high mountains. Tomorrow the race finally hits the real climbs when the riders tackle the first stage in the Alps and even though the final climb is not very tough, the combination of long ascents and immense heat will make it a brutal affair.

 

The course

On day 13 it is finally time for the first big mountaintop finish in the race as the riders take on the first of two successive stages in the Alps. It brings them over 197.5km in an almost straight easterly direction from Saint-Étienne to the Alpine heartland and a mountaintop finish at the ski resort of Chamrousse.

 

The route is designed like most of the stages that bring the riders into the high mountains as the first 135km are almost entirely flat and leads the peloton to the bottom of the major climbs. After a short, light descent, the riders tackle the category 3 Col de la Croix de Montvieux (8km, 4.1%) but after its descent, they hit the long flat roads that dominate most of the stage.

 

The hostilities start when the riders hit the bottom of the Col de Palaquit (category 1, 14.1km, 6.1%) after 138km of racing. The average gradient is deceptive as it has a lot of steeper sections. The second and third kilometres both average more than 10% but then a 2km descent leads to an easier section. The next four kilometres are pretty hard, with two of them averaging more than 10%, before things get easier for the final 2.1km.

 

The descent leads to a short section in the valley where the riders will contest a completely flat and non-technical intermediate sprint and then it’s time for the first HC climb of the race that brings the riders to the finish in Chamrousse. It is 18.2km long and has an average gradient of 7.3% and is a pretty regular affair. The hardest parts come at the bottom but the final 11km have a gradient mostly between 5 and 8%. The final 1.2km average only 3.1%, meaning that the difference will have to be made further down the climb. Inside the final kilometre, there are two hairpin bends to negotiate and the final of those leads onto the short 340m finishing straight.

 

Chamrousse last hosted a stage in 2001 when Lance Armstrong firmly beat Jan Ullrich and Joseba Beloki in 32km mountain time trial that started in Grenoble.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

After the rainy start, the topic of discussion over the last few days has been the heat that has finally hit the Tour de France peloton. Tomorrow it will be even worse as it will be another day with bright sunshine throughout the entire stage. The temperature will reach maximum of 36 degrees in the valleys while it will be 25 degrees at the finish 1730m above sea level.

 

There will only be a very light wind which will come from several directions but it will mainly be southerly and westerly breeze. This means that the riders will mainly have a tailwind, most notably on both climbs in the finale. On the descent from the penultimate climb and in the valley between the two ascents, there will be sections of both tail- and headwind.

 

The favourites

The Vosges gave a pretty good idea about the climbing hierarchy in this year’s Tour de France but tomorrow the riders face a completely different test. For the first time in this year’s race, the peloton will hit the high mountains and long, exhausting ascents.

 

Furthermore, it is the first time in this year’s race that the riders will do major climbs in the heat. The stages in the Vosges were dominated by rain and cold but tomorrow it will be a completely different affair. Riders handle the heat differently and this could produce a bit of a shake-up of the climbing hierarchy.

 

Finally, we are now deep into the second week of the race and this means that fatigue starts to play a role. While some riders are still fresh, others will start to fade and it is unlikely that tomorrow’s stage won’t give the first glimpses of riders whose condition is declining.

 

The different nature of the climbs, the heat and the fatigue may cause a few surprises and we can’t expect things to follow the same pattern that was established quite clearly during the three stages in the Vosges. Tomorrow’s stage is pretty brutal and is followed by an even harder one and when we exit the Alps, the GC will likely have undergone a small shake-up.

 

The climb to Chamrousse will definitely be the scene of a big battle between the GC riders but there is a solid chance that the GC riders won’t be playing for the stage win. A breakaway has decent opportunities as it is very often the case in the big mountain stage towards the end of a grand tour.

 

Astana have already done a lot of riding on the front in the early part of this race and they know that they go into several more days of controlling the race. Nibali has already won two stages and they will be pleased to see a breakaway ride away with the win. It will be up to other teams to chase down the break that will take off in the early part of the race.

 

This is the first of two consecutive stages in the Alps and this means that a lot of teams will be keen to save some energy for stage 14 which is the hardest of the pair. This could open the door for the breakaway. Furthermore, Nibali seems to be the strongest rider at the moment and if the Italian is currently unbeatable, there is not too much of a point in chasing down a break, only to see the Astana leader take another stage victory.

 

On the other hand, the different nature of the climbs means that more riders may be optimistic about their chances. Most of the stage is pretty easy which means that it doesn’t cost too much to use the “heavy” guys to control the long, flat first part of the stage. Finally, a few teams may be keen to make the finale pretty hard and use their strong teams to ride hard on the penultimate climb.

 

There are probably three teams with a potential interest in chasing down the break. Team Sky have lots of confidence in Richie Porte who is now entering the terrain that really suits him. The Australian is much better on the long, regular ascents and on La Planche Des Belles Filles, he proved that he definitely hasn’t given up the hope of winning the race overall. Even though he is an excellent time triallist, a deficit of 2.23 is probably a bit too much to take back in the final TT and so he needs to attack Nibali in the mountains. He has a very strong team at his side and the British squad is the most likely to control the stage.

 

Alejandro Valverde is convinced that he will get stronger as the race goes on and he is pleased that the heat has finally returned to France. In stage 10, he asked his Movistar team to contribute to the pace-setting and if he is feeling good, he may do so again tomorrow. Interestingly, most of the team sat up in the finale of today’s stage. On the other hand, Valverde has made it clear that stage wins have no priority for him as it is all about finishing on the podium and he may be keen to let a break ride away with the win.

 

Finally, Thibaut Pinot has been riding excellently well in this race and he may be confident that he can win a stage that finishes with a perfect climb for him. He doesn’t have the strongest team for the mountains but he has lots of guys who can chase down the break on the long, flat stretch preceding the penultimate climb.

 

In any case, we should be in for a pretty fast start of the stage as many riders know that this could be a good opportunity for a breakaway. The first part of the stage is flat but there is a solid chance that the break has not yet taken off by the time they reach the bottom of the first climb. This means that the break is likely to contain some pretty strong climbers who have a decent chance of finishing it off in this kind of terrain.

 

We expect Sky to have a plan for this stage and so we put our money on the favourites to decide the stage but there is close to 50% chance that the break will make it. If the GC riders will decide the stage, it is hard to look beyond Vincenzo Nibali as the man to beat. So far he has been in a class of his own and most likely he will be so again tomorrow.

 

Nibali will probably ride a bit more defensively than he has done so far and probably won’t use his strong team to blow the race apart. If he sees an opportunity and feels strong in the finale, however, he will definitely try to attack as he would like to extend his lead over Porte ahead of the time trial.

 

Even though Nibali is out stage winner pick, a number of factors suggest that things could be different. First of all, the hot conditions may be more of an advantage for his rivals. Even though Nibali has no trouble dealing with the heat, he handles the cold much better than most. Riding in the heat may level out the playing field.

 

Secondly, the long, gradual ascent suits his main rival Porte a lot better and the Australian should have a better chance of matching the race leader on this kind of ascent. Finally, Nibali has is usually pretty inconsistent in the grand tours and he has only done one three-week race (the 2013 Giro) without having a bad day. If he has one of those tomorrow, his rivals may put him under pressure.

 

Despite those factors all speaking against a Nibali win, it is hard not to put the Italian at the top of our list of favourites. Things may be a bit closer than they have been so far but Nibali could easily ride away with his third stage win.

 

Again we expect his closest rival to be Richie Porte. On paper, the Australian is the only rider who can match Nibali in this terrain and if he has the legs he had last year, he should not be too far off the mark. He handled the short, steep climbs in the Vosges pretty well and now we have entered the terrain that really suits him.

 

In stage 10, Porte was definitely the second best rider in the race but was passed by several riders in the finale after having done all the hard work on the final climb. Tomorrow he will do his utmost to avoid a similar scenario. He is not very explosive but he can set a brutal pace that can blow everything apart as he did on the climb to Les Deux Alpes 12 months ago. If he is back at that level, he may take a solo win tomorrow. Neither Porte nor Nibali are fast in a sprint and it should be close fight if they arrive together at the finish line.

 

Thibaut Pinot handled the Vosges pretty well and like Porte he is now getting into his preferred terrain. Pinot is much better on the long, gradual ascents than on short, explosive ones and tomorrow’s final climb should suit him really well. He is usually riding better in cold conditions than in the heat but he is able to handle warm weather as well.

 

Going into this race, Pinot was always one of the favourites but he flew a bit under the radar due to the many health issues that set him back in the spring. Now he is back at 100% and he has a growing confidence. He has lost a bit of time in the crosswind which means that the likes of Nibali and Porte may not be too concerned by him and this could open the door for him to win the stage.

 

Alejandro Valverde has been one of the disappointments so far. The stages in the Vosges suited him perfectly but he was not as strong as expected. On the other hand, he has done very little racing in the build-up to the Tour and he should be getting better as the race goes on. He excels in the heat but tomorrow’s final climb is a bit too long to suit him perfectly. However, the final kilometre is pretty easy and if Valverde is still there in the end, he will be impossible to beat in a sprint.

 

If a break makes it, Joaquim Rodriguez is the obvious favourite. The Spaniard wants to score KOM points in tomorrow’s stage but has not yet decided whether he will do so by going on the attack or challenging the GC riders in the finale. With a climb early in the stage, however, it may be a bit easier for him to join the break and it won’t be that much of a lottery. In stage 10, he proved that he is finding his best form and if he makes it into a successful break, he will be the man to beat.

 

Daniel Navarro went into this race with GC ambitions but the Spaniard suffered from crashes in the early part and lost times on the cobbles. Hence, he is now focusing on stage wins but he has proved that he is able to mix it up with the best on the climbs. He will definitely try to go on the attack and with an early climb, he has a solid chance of making it. If the break makes it to the finish, he will be an obvious favourite.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Tinkoff-Saxo may have lost Alberto Contador but yesterday they proved that they are not out of the race. They will definitely ride aggressively in the Alps and they have three great cards to play. Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers are both in great condition and the Irishman in particular seems to be riding really well. Both are really strong in this kind of terrain and if they make it into the break, they could take the elusive stage victory that would save the race for the team.

 

Going into this race, Rafal Majka’s condition was a bit uncertain but he seems to be getting better and better. Yesterday he looked very comfortable on the climbs and now he has the freedom to chase a stage win. If Roche and Rogers fail to make the break, Majka could be a third Tinkoff-Saxo option and even though he is not yet in peak condition, the Pole is such a classy climber that he could go on to win the stage.

 

Brice Feillu seems to be riding better than ever before. In stage 8 he was held up by a crash but blasted up the final climb to finish 15th. In stage 10 he punctured at the bottom of the penultimate climb which took him out of contention but he is definitely one of the best climbers in the race. His main goal is to win a stage and even though he has not completely shelved his GC ambitions, he will definitely try to attack in tomorrow’s stage.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Vincenzo Nibali

Other winner candidates: Richie Porte, Thibaut Pinot

Outsiders: Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Navarro

Outsiders: Nicolas Roche, Michael Rogers, Rafal Majka, Brice Feillu