Vincenzo Nibali again proved that he is in a class of his own in this year’s Tour de France but there is still plenty of terrain to challenge the race leader. Tomorrow the race continues with an even harder stage in the Alps and even though the final climb is not overly tough, the accumulated fatigue may produce another shake-up of the overall classification.

 

The course

For the second day in a row, the riders face a big stage in the Alps and unlike the previous one, this is a real mountain stage with climbing all day. However, most of the really hard Alpine climbs are missing from this year’s course and this has led many people to suggest that the mountain range will have less of an impact on this year’s race.

 

Nonetheless, stage 14 is a very hard one that brings the riders over 177km from Grenoble to another summit finish at the ski resort of Risoul. There’s a small climb to negotiate right from the beginning but after its descent, the first part is pretty easy as it consists of a long gradual uphill section that is not too hard. The riders reach a small plateau where they contest the intermediate sprint which is almost completely flat and takes place on a long straight road.

 

At the end of the plateau, it is time for the longest climb of the race, the Col du Lautaret (category 1, 34km, 3.9%) which is more of a long gradual uphill than a real climb. Then it’s time for a long easy descent to the feed zone in Besancon where the riders hit the lower slopes of one of the really mythical Alpine passes, Col d’Izoard (category HC, 19km, 6%) whose summit 2360m above sea level is the highest point of the entire race. The first 12km are pretty easy and even have a small descent but the final 7km are pretty tough with a gradient that constantly hovers around 7-8%.

 

At the top 44.5km remain. The first part is a long, gradual descent that brings the riders to the bottom of the final climb to Risoul. It is of the first category, has a length of 12.6km and averages 6.9%. It’s a pretty regular climb with no very steep sections but only little room for recovery. The 11th and 12th kilometres are the toughest as they average 8.5% before the climb levels out for the final 900m whose gradient is just 6.1%. At just 120m, the finishing straight is pretty short.

 

The finish in Risoul was first used in the 2010 Criterium du Dauphiné where Nicolas Vogondy took a surprise victory after escaping in the finale but no less than 23 riders finished within a minute of the stage winner. Last year it was back in the French race and here Alessandro De Marchi held on to take a solo win from a long-distance break while Chris Froome was trying to drag his teammate Richie Porte to a stage victory but had to accelerate on his own when Andrew Talansky caught the Sky pair just before the line. That day the time gaps were bigger but 10 riders were still within one minute of Froome who was the best of the favourites.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders have had four consecutive days in brutally hot conditions but tomorrow things are set to change. At the start, it will be beautiful sunny day with a 27-degree temperature but as the riders get into the mountains, the temperature will drop and thunderstorms are expected. After the Lautaret, things are aet to improve again and the riders can expect a partly cloudy sky and temperatures of 26 degrees in the valleys and 16 degrees at the top of the Izoard.

 

There will be a moderate wind from different directions but it will main be blowing from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a tailwind before turning into a crosswind on the descent from the Izoard. On the final climb, there will be a tailwind but there will also be headwind sections as the riders go through the many switchbacks.

 

The favourites

Going into this year’s Tour de France, it was a common perception that the Alps would only have a minor impact on the final overall standings. Many of the big climbs have been omitted from this year’s course and the two finishing climbs are not overly tough.

 

However, the combination of a very hard race and brutal heat made today’s stage a very hard affair which produced enormous gaps in the general classification. Hard work by Katusha in the valley set the tone and then the race exploded to pieces on the final two climbs. Many riders were surprised to see that the stage had created such a big difference.

 

This indicates that tomorrow’s stage to Izoard cannot be underestimated as a second consecutive day of very hard climbing has the potential to create more havoc on the peloton. The final climb, however, is a bit easier and even though the stage as a whole is harder than today’s, the time gaps should be smaller.

 

Unlike today’s stage, tomorrow’s course contains hard climbing almost all day and there are virtually not flat sections at all. This makes the stage much harder to control. Today Katusha could use up their heavy classics guys on the flats but tomorrow it requires a very strong team of climbers to bring it back together for the GC riders to decide the stage win.

 

Hence, there is a very big chance that tomorrow’s stage will be one for a breakaway. The only teams that are strong enough to control this kind of stage are probably Astana, Sky, BMC, Ag2r and Tinkoff-Saxo but none of them have any interest in doing so. Astana have already won three stages and today they seemed vulnerable, especially after Jakob Fuglsang had crashed. For them, the main objective will be to get as easily through the stage as possible and they will be content just to set a steady tempo in the peloton.

 

BMC have no genuine interest in bringing back the break as Tejay van Garderen has no chance of winning in a battle against the best riders. Tinkoff-Saxo and Sky are both out of the battle for the overall victory and their main goal now is to win a stage. Their best chance is to mix it up in the breakaways and unless they miss the early move, they will do nothing to bring it back. Ag2r are still in the running for the GC but they will be pleased to put a rider in the break and so keep control of their lead in the teams classification.

 

Unless Sky, Tinkoff-Saxo or Ag2r miss the move, it is very hard to imagine that any team will chase down the early break. Furthermore, the start of the stage is pretty hard as it is a long, steady uphill which means that the early break is likely to contain some pretty strong climbers. It will probably take a long time for the break to get clear and if we get to the bottom of the Lautaret before the elastic snaps, the break will only be stronger.

 

For a rider like Joaquim Rodriguez, the start may not be hard enough to get into the early move. To win the mountains jersey, however, it is very important for him to be part of the action and if he misses out, we may see Katusha try to keep the break under control until they hit the bottom of the Lautaret. Here Rodriguez and a number of other great climbers can use the ascent to bridge across.

 

We expect the breakaway to stay away and it will probably be left to Astana to set a steady pace on the front of the peloton for most of the day. Most riders have already admitted defeat in the battle for the overall win but there is still a hard fight for the podium. Hence, we may see a few teams try to make it hard on the Izoard and on the final climb and then the GC riders will battle it out on the slopes leading to the finish in Risoul.

 

The final climb is not very tough and the time gaps are unlikely to be very big. History shows that it is hard to make a very big difference on this ascent and today Thiabut Pinot regretted not to have gained more time on the climb to Chamrousse as he doesn’t expect tomorrow’s stage to make too much of a difference. As Nibali already has a solid lead over his main rivals, there is a big chance that he will ride pretty conservatively and unless a key rider is in difficulty, he will probably be content with the current situation.

 

As we expect the breakaway to stay away, our stage winner pick is a potential attacker. Mikel Nieve went into this race as a key domestique for Chris Froome and later took over the role of lieutenant for Richie Porte. With the Australian now out of the podium battle, Sky’s main goal is to win a stage and there is no doubt that the British team will go on the attack in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Nieve has been climbing exceptionally well all year and in this race he seems to be at a very high level. He coped really well with the short, steep climbs in the Vosges and now we are in the terrain that really suits. The long, gradual climbs in the Alps are tailor-made for him and he is a master in long-distance attacks. In fact he has won the queen stages in both the Vuelta and the Giro in this way and we expect him to try again tomorrow.

 

The first part may not be hard enough for him to get clear but he may use the Lautaret to ride across to the breakaway. He is no fast sprinter and needs to get rid of his rivals before the finish but at his current level, there is a big chance that he will do so. Nieve has a great opportunity to make amends for today’s big disappointment for Sky.

 

Another great candidate is of course Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spaniard made a big tactical mistake in today’s stage as he chased down the early break which allowed Vincenzo Nibali – who is probably his biggest rival in the mountains classification – to score 50 points. Tomorrow he needs to join the early break as there are lots of points on offer and he will use his team to make sure that he is part of the action.

 

Rodriguez is clearly not at 100% yet and we have not been too impressed by his climbing. He is constantly getting better though and if he makes it into the break, he will be one of the strongest. The final climb is not too hard and if he can keep up with the best, he will be hard to beat in an uphill sprint.

 

Today Tinkoff-Saxo proved that they are not of the race and with Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers they have three strong cards to play. Today Bjarne Riis said that Rogers and Roche will try to join the early break while Majka will save himself for the battle with the favourites.

 

Today Roche got dropped early on, probably saving energy for today, and he will do his utmost to be part of the break. The Irishman has proved that he is riding really well, most notably when he attacked in the finale of stage 11, and the final climb suits him well as he has a fast sprint. We wouldn’t be surprised if Roche saves Tinkoff-Saxo’s race by winning tomorrow’s stage.

 

Rogers is definitely also riding well and in the Giro he proved that he knows how to win out of a breakaway. The Australian finished 16th in today’s stage and there is a good chance that both he and Roche will make it into the break. Rogers is both a great climber and has a decent sprint but most importantly he has a vast experience that will allow him to use his energy perfectly in the finale.

 

Riis may have said that Majka has to save himself for the battle with the favourites but it would be no bad idea to send the Pole on the attack. Today he proved that he is riding extremely well and there is a big chance that he will be the best climber if he makes it into the right breakaway. Of course he is fatigued after the Giro and it may be hard for him to ride well two days in a row but we wouldn’t be surprised to see Majka go on the attack tomorrow.

 

If it comes down to a battle between the favourites, Vincenzo Nibali will be the favourite. The Italian is clearly the best climber in this race and even though he may be riding conservatively, it will be hard for him not to follow his aggressive mentality. If the stage win is still up for grabs, he may again ride away from all his rivals and take his fourth win in this race.

 

If Nibali decides to ride conservatively, the door is open for Alejandro Valverde to win the stage. The Movistar leader clearly one of the best climbers in this race and as the final climb is not overly selective, it may come down to a sprint from a handful of riders. If he is still there at the end, Valverde will be virtually impossible to beat.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Richie Porte took a beating in today’s stage and not even his Sky team knows what went wrong. Probably he suffered in the heat but the medical communique shows that he was treated for stomach problems. Hence, he will probably try to get as easily through tomorrow’s stage as possible but you can never rule out the strong Australian. If he is feeling well, he may go on the attack and if he is back at 100%, he will be hard to beat on the final climb.

 

Belkin are now second in the teams classification and they have made it clear that they won’t just throw away that position. This means that they will probably have to put a rider in the break and there best card is Steven Kruijswijk. The Dutchman is getting back into form after he crashed out of the Giro and if he makes it into the group, he could be strong enough to finish it off.

 

Today Leopold König proved that he is one of the strongest riders in this race as he dragged Rafal Majka all the way up the final climb. He is now in 10th overall but he is still a few minutes behind the main podium candidates. This means that he has a bit more freedom in the finale and if he makes a late attack like he did today, he could take that elusive stage victory in one of the biggest stages of the entire race.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mikel Nieve

Other winner candidates: Joaquim Rodriguez, Rafal Majka

Outsiders: Michael Rogers, Nicolas Roche, Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Richie Porte, Steven Kruijswijk, Leopold König