After two big days in the Alps, the GC riders will be pleased to allow the sprinters to come to the fore in tomorrow’s mostly flat transitional stage to Nimes. However, the Mistral wind can be very strong in this area and the favourites will have to be on their toes to avoid an unexpected and unfortunate time loss.

 

The course

After two tough days in the mountains, the sprinters will get their first guaranteed opportunity for some time in what is a very typical transitional stage. This year only this stage and a rest day separate the Alps from the Pyrenees, meaning that this route has to bring them quite a fair bit of the way between the two mountain ranges.

 

Hence, it is no surprise that it covers 222km from Tallard on the outskirts of the Alps to Nimes close to the Mediterranean coast and it consists of a journey that first takes the riders in a southerly direction before turning to the west. After a completely flat start, the terrain gets a bit more rolling near the midpoint before the riders take on a gradual descent down towards the sea.

 

The final 70km are completely flat and there is not a single categorized climb all day. The intermediate sprint comes 46.5km from the finish and takes place on a flat, straight road. The finale is loaded with roundabouts as the riders go through no less than five between the 5km and 2km to go banners. From there, they are only challenged by a sweeping right-hand bend 1100m from the line, with the road turning very slightly onto the finishing straight 600m later. It is almost completely flat.

 

Nimes last hosted a stage in 2008 when Mark Cavendish won a bunch sprint in the city. In 2004, Aitor Gonzalez was the strongest from a breakaway and took his only Tour stage win by arriving solo at the finish.

 

 

 

The weather

The heat has left Southern France for now and the riders are expected to take the start under a rainy sky. Things should improve in the middle part of the stage but there will be a risk of showers all day. Towards the end of the stage, the riders may be hit by thunderstorms. The temperature is expected to reach a maximum of 25 degrees.

 

At the start, there will be a moderate wind from an easterly direction but it will get stronger as the day goes on. At the midpoint, the direction is set to chance and in the final part it will be blowing from southerly direction. This means that the riders will have a crosswind almost all day and in the finale, very strong gusts of wind are forecasted.

 

In the finale, the riders will have a cross-headwind until they turn tight in a roundabout around 2km from the line. As the road bends slightly to the right, the riders will turn into a tailwind for the sprint

 

The favourites

On paper, stage 15 should offer the GC riders a small chance to recover after two big days in the Alps and they will be pleased to let the sprinters take their place in the spotlight. However, the 222km from Tallard to Nimes should definitely not be underestimated.

 

Stages in this part of France are not feared because of the terrain but they can create bigger time differences than a big mountain stage. The Mistral wind plays a huge role in this area and all sport directors will take a very close look at the weather forecasts before heading out for their long journey to Nimes.

 

As said, the wind won’t be too strong in the beginning of the stage but as the day goes on, things will get a lot more complicated. The wind will freshen a lot and the riders will have a crosswind almost all day. With very strong gusts of wind forecasted in the finale, this will be one of the most nervous stages of the entire race.

 

This stage is a very big objective for Lotto Belisol and Giant-Shimano as it is the only really big sprint opportunity in the second week of racing. The latter team is dedicated to the sprints and with Jurgen Van Den Broeck fading in the Alps, the former team will now be riding in full support of André Greipel. There is simply no way that they will let this opportunity slip away and even though history shows that escapees may deny the sprinters in the second half of a grand tour, everybody knows that tomorrow is not the day to create a surprise.

 

Hence, there will probably not be a very big battle in the opening part of the race and we can expect a small break of 3-4 riders to get clear almost right from the gun. The only real incentive to go on the attack is to avoid the stressful atmosphere in the peloton and this may inspire a few more riders than usual. However, no one should expect a big battle right from the start of the stage.

 

We can expect Giant-Shimano and Lotto Belisol to take control and they will definitely not allow the break too much leeway. Even though it is a very long stage, the break will probably not get more than a 6-minute advantage and it will be left to Lars Bak and Cheng Ji to control affairs for most of the day.

 

As the day goes on and the wind freshens, however, things will get a lot more nervous and in fact Lotto and Giant may not have to do too much work. The fight for position will make the pace increase significantly and this acceleration may be enough to bring the early break back. This will be an extremely stressful stage and if the roads are wet, things will only become even trickier.

 

The main question is whether the wind will be strong enough to split things. On paper, the conditions for a dramatic stage are there but history shows that attacks in the crosswinds only work when they are least expected. Last year everybody feared the stage to Montpellier and the ones in Bretagne but nothing happened on those days. Instead, it was the stage to Saint-Armand-Montrond that created havoc on the peloton on a day when nobody really expected things to split.

 

Tomorrow everybody will be on their guards but it is very unlikely that nobody will try a move. Last year most GC riders had pretty strong teams for this kind of racing and so only bad luck for Valverde caused one of the main riders to lose time. This year, however, there may really be something to gain as Thibaut Pinot is very poor in these conditions and Ag2r is not the strongest team for this kind of racing either.

 

BMC and Belkin both excel in this kind of racing and if the conditions are there, they will definitely give it a try. The best team for this weather, however, is usually Omega Pharma-Quick Step and they are almost guaranteed to make a move at some point. For them, the goal won’t be to gain time on GC but they know that Mark Renshaw is unlikely to beat the fastest sprinters. As they did in stage 6, they will probably try to get rid of the really fast guys before the finish in Nimes.

 

André Greipel and Marcel Kittel are both really strong in these conditions though and so they are unlikely to miss out. If Pinot, Romain Bardet or Jean-Christophe Peraud miss the split, however, we could be in for a pretty dramatic day of racing.

 

In any case, the stage should end in some kind of bunch sprint but there is no guarantee that all sprinters will be there at the end. Nonetheless, Marcel Kittel will be the man to beat. The German has proved several times that he is by far the fastest rider in the peloton and this sprint suits him perfectly.

 

The sprint hierarchy may change towards the end of a grand tour as fatigue starts to play a bigger role but it seems that Kittel is still pretty fresh. Today he climbed pretty strongly and was one of the last sprinters to get dropped. Last year he proved that he recovers well enough to maintain his strength in the final week of a grand tour and nothing suggests that it is any different this time around.

 

Kittel still has the strongest lead-out train at his disposal. Today he lost Dries Devenyns who crashed out of the race but the Belgian is not part of the train. The team did everything right in London but failed a bit in stages 4 and 6. This proves that the team can be beaten but on paper they have the firepower to dominate the finale. The long tailwind sprint suits a power sprinter like Kittel perfectly and if Giant hit the front like they did in London, the German will be almost impossible to beat. Even if the team doesn’t do everything right, Kittel has a decent chance as he proved when he won stage 4. Finally, the team is strong in the crosswinds and there is little chance that the rivals will get rid of Kittel before the line.

 

His biggest rival is André Greipel who is definitely the second fastest rider in this race. In the early part of the race, things didn’t go too well for the fast German who was unable to hold onto the wheels of his teammates and got lost in the finales. In Reims, however, he proved his speed when he won the sprint despite not being given a good lead-out.

 

Greipel is usually very reliant on his strong train but with Greg Henderson out of the race, Lotto are unlikely to dominate the finales. Instead, Greipel probably has to come from behind like he did in Reims and this kind of sprinting doesn’t suit him too well. This sprint is perfect for a power sprinter like Greipel but his main challenge will be to get into a good position. Marcel Sieberg and Jurgen Roelandts should still be able to do a good job though and if Giant-Shimano screw things up a bit, Greipel definitely has the speed to take a second win.

 

The only other rider with the top speed needed to beat Kittel in this kind of finish is Arnaud Demare. The Frenchman proved his speed when he finished third in Reims and that day he was clearly faster than anybody else. Since then he has been suffering from his crashes but last Thursday he proved that he is getting back to his best.

 

Today he suffered from nausea and there is a risk that he is not at 100% for tomorrow’s sprint. Furthermore, his team is not the strongest in the windy conditions and if any of the top sprinters is to miss a split, Demare would be an obvious victim. Even though William Bonnet and Mickael Delage are both capable lead-out men, they don’t have the strength to go up against Giant-Shimano and Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Until now Demare has been poorly positioned in all sprints and so there is a big risk that he will finish far down the rankings. However, he is one of the select few with the top speed to win this kind of sprint.

 

The only team that can potentially challenge Giant-Shimano in the sprint finishes is Omega Pharma-Quick Step. The team is most likely to ride in support of Mark Renshaw but Alessandro Petacchi may be given the chance in a sprint that suits him perfectly. Tony Martin-Michal Kwiatkowski-Niki Terpstra-Alessandro Petacchi-Matteo Trentin should provide Renshaw with some considerable firepower and they have proved that they have the strength to beat Giant-Shimano. Renshaw is not the fastest rider in the bunch but if Omega Pharma-Quick Step dominate the finale, the Australian could take the win.

 

This stage doesn’t really suit Alexander Kristoff as it is way too easy. Due to the windy conditions, however, it may become a lot harder than expected and this will play into the hands of the Norwegian. If it turns out to be a race of attrition, Kristoff is one of the strongest riders and he knows how to position himself in the finale. He will miss Alexander Porsev a lot but if he latches onto the wheel of the strongest train and the race has been very hard, no one can rule out another win for the Norwegian.

 

Bryan Coquard has had a fantastic first grand tour and he doesn’t seem to be fatigued at all. He still suffers in the fight for position but in this race he has done better than usual. He is definitely one of the fastest riders in the peloton but there is a big risk that he will miss a split in the crosswinds. If he is there at the end, however, he has the speed to win the stage but first of all he needs to position himself near the front.

 

This stage should be too easy for Peter Sagan but like Kristoff he may benefit from a really hard day in the saddle. If the peloton splits in the crosswinds, there is virtually no chance that the Slovakian will miss the split and this may give him a chance. Until now he has been riding conservatively in the sprints but as he has virtually locked up the win in the points classification, he can allow himself to take more risks. If the peloton splits and the faster guys miss out, tomorrow may be Sagan’s day to shine.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. As said, Omega Pharma-Quick Step may be giving Alessandro Petacchi a chance to shine as he is no longer suffering from an allergic reaction due to a bee sting. He is no longer as fast as he once was but he is still a very capable sprinter. If he is given the chance, he has the strongest team at his side and if they manage to position him perfectly, the long tailwind sprint should suit him really well.

 

Daniel Oss is no pure sprinter but he has a decent kick at the end of a hard race. His BMC team is one of the strongest for racing in the crosswinds and if things split up, he may be one of the few fast guys in the front group. He will probably have to work hard for van Garderen but may be given his chance in the sprint. He is unlikely to take the win but if a small group arrives at the finish, a podium finish is within his reach.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Arnaud Demare

Outsiders: Mark Renshaw, Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard, Peter Sagan

Jokers: Alessandro Petacchi, Daniel Oss