As it has become custom in grand tours, the organizers have made the final week of the Tour de France brutally hard and even though it seems hard to deny Vincenzo Nibali the overall win, the battle for the minor podium places is more unpredictable than it has been in recent years. Lots can change during three very hard days in the Pyrenees and the first shakeup can already be provided in tomorrow’s longest stage of the race that sends the riders up the famous Port de Bales and down its tricky descent.

 

The course

Last year the Alps played the decisive role in the Tour de France. Following their alternating principle, the organizers have changed things around for the 2014 edition. The riders may have tested each other in two consecutive summit finishes in the Alps but the days with the hardest climbing are definitely the three mountain stages that come right after the second rest day.

 

While the final two of those are short, intensive affairs, the first one is the longest stage of the entire race. It brings the riders over a massive 237.5km from Carcassonne to Bagnères-de-Luchon that has often played host to the Tour de France. Like many other stages that bring the riders into the high mountains, the stage can be split into two, with an opening part that is almost completely flat and a second part that contains almost all the hard climbing.

 

Most of the stage consists of a westerly journey whose flat roads are only interrupted by the two small category 4 climbs Cote de Fanieux (2.4km, 4.9%) and Cote de Pamiers (2.5km, 5.4%) that are located at the 25km and 71.5km marks respectively. The intermediate sprint comes in this flat part of the race, in Saint-Gaudens after 123.5km of racing, and is a pretty technical affair. There’s a small hill 2km from the finish and a subsequent descent but the final kilometre is flat. The main challenge is the sharp right-hand turn that comes just 500m from the sprint.

 

The climbing starts after 150km of racing when the riders reach the bottom of the category 2 Col de Portet d’Aspet (5.4km, 6.9%), one of the famous Pyrenean ascents that is known for Fabio Casartelli’s fatal accident on the descent. After the descent, the riders do the Col des Ares (category 3, 6km, 5.2%).

 

Those two smaller climbs, however, are just a warm-up for the main challenge of the stage which comes after a short flat section in the valley. With 202km already in their legs, the riders hit the bottom of the famous Port de Bales (category HC, 11.7km, 7.7%) which is a new climb in the Tour de France history but has already grown to fame due to the fact that Andy Schleck dropped his chain on its slopes when it was included four years ago. The first three kilometres are regular at 7-8% and are followed by a flatter section. The final 6km, however, leave little room for recovery with a gradient mostly above 7%, and the 8th and 9th kilometres are especially tough, averaging more than 9%. It gets a bit easier near the top as the final 700m only have a 6.4% gradient.

 

Having crested the summit, the riders still need to cover 21.5km but they are almost all made up of a technical and difficult descent to the finish in Bagnères-de-Luchon. Only the final 2.8km are flat and offer a pretty technical finale, with a very sharp turn 1700m from the line and four corners inside the final kilometre. The final one brings the riders onto the short, flat 180m finishing straight.

 

The Port de Bales finish was first included in the famous 2010 edition of the race when Andy Schleck’s dropped chain took most of the attention. The stage win, however, was taken by Thomas Voeckler who emerged as the strongest from a breakaway while Alberto Contador, Samuel Sanchez and Denis Menchov were the first of the GC riders to arrive. In 2012, it again featured on the course but a bit earlier in a stage that was won by Alejandro Valverde from a breakaway on a day when Chris Froome again had to slow down to wait for Bradley Wiggins.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The Pyrenean stages are often raced in brutally hot conditions but this year it seems that it will be the Alps that have provided the riders with the heat. After rain has fallen in the mountains during today’s rest day, bright sunshine is forecasted for tomorrow’s stage but it won’t be a hot day in the saddle. The temperature at the finish in Bagneres-de-Luchon will reach a maximum of only degrees.

 

There will only be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind almost all day. As they turn onto the lower slopes of the Port de Bales, however, they will get a tailwind that will provide assistance almost all the way to the finish in Bagneres-de-Luchon. With 4km to go, the riders will turn into a crosswind but in the final 2km there will mostly be a tailwind until the riders turn onto the short finishing straight.

 

The favourites

Going into this year’s Tour de France, many riders didn’t expect the Alps to make too much of a difference and they insisted that the very hard final week in the Pyrenees would be decisive. However, both Alpine stages created some massive time differences in an elimination race that saw different riders have bad days on different days.

 

Things were definitely made a lot harder by the brutally hot conditions as the climbs in the Alps were not very tough. The riders may not have to deal with the heat in the Pyrenees but they will have to tackle ascents that are much harder than those they faced last week in the other major mountain range in France.

 

What will make things a lot tougher is the fact that the riders head into three consecutive days with very hard climbing and none of the stages can be underestimated. The first day in the triptych may be the only one without a summit finish and the riders may be a little cautious as they need to save some energy for the upcoming stages but tomorrow’s stage can definitely not be underestimated.

 

Of course stage 16 has the least amount of climbing but it will definitely be a tough affair. First of all it is the longest stage of the entire race and the riders will have more than 200km in their legs by the time they hit the bottom of the Port de Bales. Furthermore, history shows that the main climb is hard enough to create a big difference and as the final part is almost only made up of a descent, there is a good chance to maintain any time gains – or possibly extend them – during the run-in to the finish.

 

On paper, this stage is a very good one for a breakaway. First of all the fact that there is no summit finish means that the favourite status is a bit less obvious and most of the GC riders will be uncertain about their ability to actually win this stage. Secondly, it is a very long stage and it requires a massive amount of energy to keep a breakaway in check in such a long stage. Finally, most teams will be keen to save some of their resources for the next two days where team tactics can become a lot more important.

 

Of course a lot of teams know this and so we can expect the stage to be raced at a very high speed right from the beginning. It will probably take a long time before the break gets clear and it would be no surprise if the peloton is still together after the first hour of racing.

 

At some point, the peloton will finally slow down and then Astana will set a steady pace while the gap starts to grow. The flat start to the stage means that luck plays a big role in determining which riders make it into the break and it will be hard for the pure climbers to get in the mix on a day like this one. In fact, the break could easily contain a few riders that has no chance in such a tough finale as it was evidenced in stage 8 when Niki Terpstra and Adrien Petit made it into a break on a hard day in the Vosges.

 

As said, it requires a lot of energy to control the break on a day like this and so it will probably be left to Astana to ride on the front for most of the day. The Kazakh team will be keen to save their energy for later and they will definitely not do anything to reel in the escapees.

 

There is a big chance that the break will get a huge advantage but we have been pretty surprised how fast Astana have been riding. Two days ago they kept the break on a much tighter less than one would have expected and if the break is still within shouting distance in the finale, we may see a few teams try to chase it down.

 

On paper, Movistar is the only team with a clear interest in bringing the break back as this may be Valverde’s best chance to win a stage. However, the team is almost only focused on the podium and so they will probably not use a lot of energy in this stage. Instead, they are likely to try to put a rider in the breakaway.

 

Much will depend on which teams have missed the move. Some of them may start to chase but as there are still two big mountain stages to go, we expect the early work to be left to Astana. Hence, we put our money on the breakaway to make it to the finish.

 

Behind the escapees, we will definitely see a big fight between the overall contenders. Thibaut Pinot and Romain Bardet both know that they need to gain time on Tejay van Garderen ahead of the time trial and it would be no surprise if Ag2r try to make the race hard already on the Portet d’Aspet and the Ares. We expect both young Frenchmen and Jean-Christophe Peraud to attack their American rival on the Port de Bales and especially Pinot will be keen to get an advantage ahead of the descent. Bardet and Peraud are both better descenders than van Garderen and if they can gain some seconds over the top, they may extend it on the descent and so this stage could offer them their best chance to make bigger time gains on the BMC leader.

 

As said, we expect the break to make it and so the favourites for the stage are riders that are strong enough on the flats to get into the break and great climbers that can finish it off in this kind of finish. Good descending skills are no disadvantage and a decent sprint may come in handy if nobody is able to take a solo victory.

 

Two days ago Rafal Majka took Tinkoff-Saxo’s first stage win in the race but there may be more in store for the Russian team. The squad is clearly one of the strongest in the race and has lots of firepower to chase more victories in the mountains.

 

Majka is now in a great position to win the mountains jersey and like Joaquim Rodriguez, he may be keen to save some energy for stage 17 which offers a lot more points and suits him a lot more. Instead, Tinkoff-Saxo will probably try to send Michael Rogers on the attack and the Australian is a great winner candidate.

 

By finishing close to the favourites in both Chamrousse and Risoul, Rogers has proved that he is in great condition and among the best climbers in this race. Furthermore, he is a great rouleur who will have a solid chance of joining the break in the flat first part. He has loads of experience which will be important when it comes to gauging the effort throughout such a long stage. Finally, he is a great descender and even has a decent sprint.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo may decide to go all in on stage 17 which is tailor-made for Majka and so may decide to save Rogers for that stage as well. On the other hand, the team cannot allow themselves to miss too many opportunities and this is definitely one of their best. Hence, Rogers is our stage winner pick.

 

Sky is the other team who went into the race with overall ambitions but which is now left to chase stage victories. They tried to bounce back two days ago when Geraint Thomas and Mikel Nieve both made it into the break and tomorrow they will definitely try again.

 

Richie Porte and Nieve are both suffering from illness and so it will again be left to Thomas to go for glory. The Welshman is climbing better than ever before and in stage 14 he was instrumental in keeping the big break alive. Furthermore, he is strong in the flats, a great descender and has a fast sprint. This stage suits him perfectly and if he makes it into the break, he will be hard to beat.

 

If the GC riders end up deciding the stage, Vincenzo Nibali is the obvious favourite. The race leader has proved that he is the best climber in this race but we are a bit curious to see how he handles tomorrow’s stage.

 

On paper, there would be no reason to go on the attack but so far he has taken every opportunity to distance his rivals. He seems to be preparing himself for a potential bad day by maximizing his time gains and he is likely to do so again tomorrow. Due to his great descending skills, he may even gain more time than he has done so far as he can extend his advantage dramatically in the final 20km. Nothing suggests that anyone will be able to keep up with Nibali if he decides to attack and no one will catch him on the descent.

 

If Nibali decides to take it easy or has one of those bad days that he has so often had in the past, the cards may play into Alejandro Valverde’s hands. Together with Jean-Christophe Peraud and Thibaut Pinot, he seems to be among the best climbers behind Nibali and the irregular Pyrenean climbs should suit him better than the ones in the Alps. If he can keep up with the best on the Port de Bales, he will be the obvious favourite as he is both a great descender and has the fastest sprint of all the favourites.

 

Thomas and Rogers are not the only riders capable of winning from a breakaway. Tony Gallopin has had an excellent Tour but there may be more to come for the Lotto-Belisol rider. After his stage win in Oyonnax he suffered from illness but in stages 14 and 15 he proved that he is back at 100%.

 

Last Saturday Gallopin climbed excellently in support of Jurgen van den Broeck and he has proved that he is one of the best climbers in the race. He is strong on the flats, a great descender and he is very fast in a sprint. As van den Broeck has dropped out of the podium battle, he will be given the freedom to go for glory and this stage suits him down to the ground.

 

Movistar may mostly be focused on Alejandro Valverde but they have shown that they are also keen on sending riders into breakaways. Yesterday Giovanni Visconti told Tuttobiciweb that he hopes to go on the attack in the Pyrenees and tomorrow’s stage may be his best chance. The Italian has ridden himself into a solid condition after his injury setback in the Down Under Classic and he has all the skills to win tomorrow’s stage. He is a great climber, a fabulous descender and has a very fast sprint. Look out for Visconti to deliver the first stage win for Movistar in Bagneres-de-Luchon.

 

Jan Bakelants has proved that he is riding excellently well and even though he is no pure climber, he knows how to handle the big mountains. This stage is not too tough for him and most importantly he has the skills to make it into the break in the first, flat part. With Michal Kwiatkowski out of the GC battle, Bakelants will have carte blanche to go for his second Tour stage win in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Finally, we will select a couple of jokers. Alessandro De Marchi was on the attack in both Alpine stages and he will definitely try again in the Pyrenees. By winning a big mountain stage in the 2013 Dauphiné, he has proved that he knows how to finish it off. He is a solid descender and a great rouleur who has showed his flair for getting into the right breakaway.

 

The same can be said for Blel Kadri who is in the form of his life in this year’s race. For Ag2r, it will be very important to have a rider in the break as they need to defend their lead in the teams classification. Kadri is their best option as he has all the skills for this kind of stage. He is not a pure climber and the Port de Bales will maybe be a bit too tough for him. In Gerardmer, he proved that he can never be ruled out though.

 

Team Giant-Shimano may mostly be focused on the sprints but in the mountains, Tom Dumoulin has a free card to play. The Dutchman is one of the strongest riders on the flats and has a solid chance of making it into the break. There are definitely better climbers than him but he knows how to gauge his efforts. If he is not too far behind at the top, he may rejoin the leaders on the descent and then he has a very fast sprint to finish it off.

 

Brice Feillu has desperately tried to make the right break in this race but whenever he has been there, the peloton has shut it down. He still hopes to win a stage in the Pyrenees and even though stages 17 and 18 suit him better, he will definitely try again tomorrow. Being in the form of his life, he will probably be one of the best climbers if he makes the right group and then he definitely has a chance to take another stage win 5 years after his victory in Andorra.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michael Rogers

Other winner candidates: Geraint Thomas, Vincenzo Nibali

Outsiders: Alejandro Valverde, Tony Gallopin, Giovanni Visconti, Jan Bakelants

Jokers: Alessandro De Marchi, Blel Kadri, Tom Dumoulin, Brice Feillu