The Port de Bales lived up to its tradition of producing great dramas but today’s battle was only a warm-up for the much harder stages to come. Tomorrow the riders head into what us probably the toughest stage of the entire race and no less than four big climbs in just 124.5km will make for some aggressive, intensive racing that can produce another shake-up of the overall standings.

 

The course

In 2011, ASO designed a very short, intense stage in the Alps that included both Col du Galibier and Alpe d’Huez and offered some of the most spectacular racing in recent years, with the GC riders attacking each other right from the beginning of the first climb. Since then, the organizers have usually designed a short, hard mountain stage with numerous climbs and the 2014 edition is no exception.

 

This year the stage comes on day 17 when the riders travel just 124.5km from Saint-Gaudens on the outskirts of the Pyrenees to a summit finish in Saint-Lary Pla d’Adet. Despite the short distance and a flat first third of the race, the riders will be challenged by no less than three category 1 climbs and the final HC ascent, making this a real mountain stage with repeated climbs and little room for recovery.

 

The first part of the stage is pretty easy as the riders travel along flat roads in a southerly direction, with the main highlight being the flat, straightforward intermediate sprint at the 31km mark. A few kilometres further up the road, they cross the border into Spain where they turn west and start to climb the Col du Portillon (category 1, 8.3km, 7.1%) after 49km of racing. It’s a pretty regular climb whose second half is a bit tougher than the first kilometres.

 

At the top, the riders get back onto French soil and they now descend back to the previous day’s finishing city of Bagnères-de-Luchon. With no flat valley road at all, it is straight onto one of the really famous Tour de France climbs, the Col de Peyresourde (category 1, 13.2km, 7%) that has a few flatter sections in the first half but whose final 7km are very  regular at 7-8%.

 

The descent leads the city of Loudenvielle where a very short flat section brings the riders to the bottom of the Col de Val Louron-Azet (category 1, 7.4km, 8.3%). It has a pretty steep first part with three consecutive kilometres that average more than 9% but the second half is a bit easier.

 

Another descent leads to the city of Saint-Lary-Soulan where there is a very short flat section before the riders hit the bottom of the HC climb to the finish. With a length of 10.2km, it has an average gradient of 8.3%, making it the steepest summit finish in the Alps and Pyrenees. The first 7km are very tough as the gradient doesn’t drop below 8.5% but the final 3km are significantly easier with gradients ranging from 5% to 7%. The finale is not very technical, with the final kilometre only containing one major turn before a slight bend leads onto the 110m finishing straight.

 

The finish in Pla d’Adet has not been used since 2005 when George Hincapie emerged as a climber by winning one of the hardest stages in the Pyrenees by beating breakaway companion Oscar Pereiro in a sprint at the top. Further down the climb, the GC battle was on and Lance Armstrong and Ivan Basso managed to distance Jan Ullrich by 1.24 on the steep slopes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders had almost perfect conditions for bike racing and it will be more or less similar in tomorrow’ stage. At the start in Saint-Gaudens, there will be bright sunshine and a pleasant temperature of 25 degrees.

 

As the day goes on, however, clouds will develop and could make conditions on the climbs pretty foggy. The temperature at the tops will be 17-19 degrees and 24-25 degrees in the valleys.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind in the flat first part of the race and up the Pol du Portillon. From there, they will mainly have a crosswind for the rest of the day. There will be a headwind on the lower slopes of the final climb, then a section with crosswind and finally a short tailwind section at the end.

 

The favourites

If the riders were asked to select the most fearsome stage of this year’s Tour de France, most of them would probably point to stage 17.  Several factors make it likely that this will be one of the most memorable days of the entire race and could produce a huge drama.

 

First of all, the stage is very short and such stages are usually very intense and extremely aggressive. The riders can afford to take more risks as they have a better chance of holding on all the way to the finish and they don’t fear to blow up far from the finish. Secondly, the terrain is extremely hilly and as there is virtually no flat road in the second half, this is a day when attacks can be made from afar. Finally, the stage comes in the third week of the race and on the back of a very long, fast stage that did a lot of damage on a fatigued peloton.

 

History shows that short stages are usually very aggressive and intense. In the 2011 Tour, Alberto Contador, Andy Schleck, Thomas Voeckler and Cadel Evans attacked already on the lower slopes on the first climb of a similar stage. The best example of the damage that such a stage can produce, however, is definitely the final stage of the Dauphiné which turned the GC on its head when Andrew Talansky, Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Romain Bardet attacked Alberto Contador from afar.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is open for a lot of different scenarios which make it one of the most unpredictable stages of the entire race. One thing is guaranteed though: The start of the stage will be extremely fast and aggressive. As said, this is a stage for big long-distance attacks and a day suited to the pure climbers. A lot of riders that are well-placed in the overall standings see this as a great chance to get back into the GC battle by taking some time back on their rivals and maybe even grab a stage win.

 

There is no doubt that this is the stage that Astana fear the most as the terrain is very hard to control and suits the GC riders. The team has seemed to be a little fatigued over the last few days and they face a difficult task of controlling tomorrow’s stage.

 

The first flat section makes things a bit difficult to handle. The best climbers will prefer to save their attacks for the first climb but there will be lots of aggression right from the beginning of the stage. In this part of the stage, the climbers are not favoured and there is no guarantee that the early break will contain many riders that excel in the high mountains.

 

It may very well happen that the riders get to the bottom of the first climb before the break takes off. If the elastic snaps a bit earlier, there is a chance that a few teams will try to keep it on a tight leash to allow their climbers to bridge the gap as soon as the road ramps upwards.

 

The battle for the polka-dot jersey will make this even more complicated. Rafal Majka and Joaquim Rodriguez both know that they have to hit the break in tomorrow’s stage as there are lots of points on offer. They will both mark each other closely and it is virtually impossible that one rider will make the break without the other. If they both miss the early break, we will expect their teams to make it possible for them to bridge the gap on the first climb.

 

As soon as we hit the hillier terrain, we can expect riders in the top 20 of the GC start to launch attacks and this is when Astana will really be tested. They have no interest in the stage wins but with attacks from dangerous riders, they will probably have to ride pretty fast all day. We would be surprised if the break gets a very big advantage and this opens the door for several different outcomes.

 

Thibaut Pinot was pleased with his performance in today’s stage and he knows that he needs to gain more time on Jean-Christophe Peraud and may even try to win the stage. He doesn’t have the strongest team for this terrain but he could use Arnold Jeannesson to make the race hard. Today Alejandro Valverde made the race explode to pieces and if they have a similar plan in tomorrow’s stage, this will make it even harder for the breakaway to stay away.

 

We expect the stage to be carnage with lots of riders up the road but as we expect the peloton to ride fast all day, only the strongest will have a chance to stay away. In this chaotic stage, there is a 50% chance that a strong climber will prevail from the break and a 50% chance that one of the GC riders will take the win. There is even a small chance that the podium candidates will start to attack each other on one of the earlier climbs but as the final ascent is very tough, they will probably prefer to save their energy for the final 10km where a lot of damage can be done.

 

Our favourite to win the stage is Rafal Majka who could both double his own tally and make it two in a row for Tinkoff-Saxo. The Pole has done nothing to hide his plans for tomorrow’s stage and the strong Tinkoff-Saxo team will go in with the plan to win the stage and consolidate their lead in the mountains classification. If Majka misses the move, we are convinced that they will shut the early move down as they have so much confidence in their young climber.

 

Majka has proved that he is one of the best climbers in this race. He may not be at the level of the podium candidates but he is not far off the mark. If he makes it into the break, the peloton has to ride fast all day to catch him. This time there are no flat roads either which means that he is not reliant on being part of a homogenous and dedicated group as he can allow himself to take off on his own already on one of the earlier climbs.

 

He will be up against Joaquim Rodriguez but at the moment, Majka seems to be a lot stronger than his Spanish rival. Rodriguez will be faster in the sprints at the top of the climbs but in the finale, there is a great chance that Majka will leave his Spanish rival behind. If Majka has the legs he had in the Alps, he will be hard to win in this stage.

 

As said, there is a big chance that the GC riders will decide this stage and in that case we can expect a fierce battle between Thibaut Pinot and Vincenzo Nibali. Until now, Nibali has been in a class of his own but today Pinot actually managed to slightly drop the race leader on the Port de Bales. Nibali claims that he was just looking for a bottle and it is probably true that he was not prepared to go too much into the red zone as he knew that he would catch Pinot on the descent. However, his face clearly indicated that he was put under pressure by the strong Frenchman.

 

In last year’s Vuelta, Nibali learned not to underestimate anyone and if Pinot manages to put him in the hurt zone, he is probably not going to make any unnecessary attacks. For him, it is mainly about controlling the race and this makes it more likely that the pair will arrive at the finish together. If Pinot has been doing all the pace-setting, Nibali may even allow the Frenchman to win the stage. In a sprint finish, however, Pinot is usually the fastest too and so there is a big chance that the FDJ leader will take his second Tour stage win tomorrow.

 

However, Nibali could also take his fourth stage win. Today Pinot was obviously on a great day but so far Nibali has been in a class of his own. Furthermore, he has shown that he is not prepared to give anything away and if he sees a chance to take another stage win, he will probably go for it. He probably needs to drop Pinot before the finish but as he has demonstrated time after time, he has the skills to do so.

 

Pierre Rolland came into this race on the back of an excellent performance in the Giro but in the early part of the race, he has clearly been suffering. However, he is riding himself into form and is now a lot stronger than he was earlier in the race. Rolland is still in contention for a top 10 result but he would prefer to win a stage and he is probably willing to risk it all by doing one of his trademark attacks in the mountains. Tomorrow’s stage is tailor-made for him and at the moment he seems to be strong enough to finish it off.

 

Chris Horner came into this race a bit short of form as a bad crash had seen him do very little racing in the spring season. However, he is constantly getting better and as he is now out of the GC battle, he has the freedom to attack. For Lampre-Merida, it is now all about stage wins and there is little doubt that they have marked this one out as a perfect opportunity. He lost it all on a bad day in the Alps but he has actually been climbing pretty well. As he will only improve, he could be strong enough to finish off a big breakaway in the most beautiful way.

 

Brice Feillu has been trying hard to win a stage from a breakaway but so far he has had no luck. However, the Frenchman has been riding really well and in this kind of stage it will be more about climbing legs than luck. Unfortunately, he seems to have lost a bit of the splendid condition he had in the Vosges and if that’s the case, it will be hard to take this one. If he is back at 100%, however, this could be the day for him to take another big stage win in the Pyrenees.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Frank Schleck went into this race a bit short of form after he had crashed out of the Tour de Suisse but his condition is definitely on the rise. Today he suffered from stomach problems but otherwise he has not been too far off the mark of the best climbers. If he has recovered from his illness, he could be a danger man in tomorrow’s stage. He is not an immediate GC threat and so may have a bit more freedom. To move into the top 10, he will probably have to make a big coup and this could put him on the offensive.

 

Movistar will probably try to send a rider on the attack as part of their tactical game plan and this could allow them to contest the stage win from a breakaway. The team is loaded with strong climbers but especially John Gadret and Benat Intxausti seem to be riding strongly at the moment. While the Frenchman is likely to stay near Valverde, the Basque may be the rider to go up the road. In the early part of the race, he was suffering but today he was back to the best and made the race explode to pieces. If he has the same kind of legs tomorrow, he may be the rider that keeps the Movistar streak of Tour stage wins alive.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Rafal Majka

Other winner candidates: Thibaut Pinot, Vincenzo Nibali

Outsiders: Pierre Rolland, Chris Horner, Brice Feillu

Jokers: Frank Schleck, Benat Intxausti, John Gadret