Today’s queen stage fully lived up to expectations but more is in store as there is still one hard battle in the mountains left for the tired Tour de France riders. The final stage in the Pyrenees includes the mighty Col du Tourmalet and the legendary Hautacam climbs and provides climbers like Thibaut Pinot with a last chance to gain time on the stronger time triallists ahead of the TT on the penultimate day.

 

The course

The honour of being the queen stage of a grand tour is always a topic for discussion and this year’s edition of the Tour de France doesn’t have an obvious candidate for the title. If one has to point to a single stage, however, stage 18 is a very good candidate as it offers a legendary finishing climb, the hardest mountain of the entire race and comes at the end of all the climbing hostilities.

 

At just 145.5km, it is another very short affair which should prompt the riders to ride aggressively and make brave moves in the hard terrain. Usually, the Tour de France offers at least one stage that starts with a very tough climb but this year all mountain stages kick off with a long flat stretch. As stage 18 starts in the famous city of Pau that rarely is missing from the Tour de France route, it again offers a flat start before the riders hit the mountains.

 

The first 78km are pretty easy, with the small category 3 climbs Cote de Benejacq (2.6km, 6.7%) and Cote de Loucrup (2km, 7%) at the 28km and 56km marks offering the only minor challenges. Again the intermediate sprint comes in this easy part of the race but this time it is slightly uphill as the final kilometre average around 1.5%.

 

From there, the road starts to ramp upwards ever so slightly until the riders reach the city of Sainte-Marie-de-Campan which is famously known as the starting point of one of the most legendary climbs in the Tour de France history, Col du Tourmalet. The HC mountain is 17.1km long and has an average gradient of 7.3% and features on the route most years. The first 5km are pretty easy but from there it is an extremely regular affair with a pretty constant gradient between 8% and 10%, leaving very little room for recovery.

 

The top comes exactly 50km from the finish and the first 18.5km of those consist of the descent from the highest point of this year’s Pyrenean stages. At the bottom, the riders have to negotiate 17km of slightly descending valley roads that lead to the bottom of another mythical ascent. Having last been included in the race in 2008, Hautacam is back on the Tour de France course and will offer the climbers the final chance to take time ahead of the decisive time trial on the penultimate climb. The HC climb is 13.6km long and has an average gradient of 7.8% but is made harder by the fact that the second part is the toughest. The first 6km are pretty easy but are followed by 5 very hard kilometres of which two average more than 10%. The final 2.6km are again easier, with gradient between 6.5% and 8%. There are a few hairpin bends inside the final kilometre, with the final one leading onto the short 50m finishing straight.

 

This is almost an identical copy of the first big mountain stage of the 2008 Tour de France and back then CSC made a big coup by putting Fabian Cancellara into the early break. Having made the race explode on the Tourmalet, dropping Alejandro Valverde along the way, they made use of their TT specialist in the valley to extend their advantage before the final climb. Leonardo Piepoli and Juan Jose Cobo delivered a dominant Saunier Duval showing on that ascent, taking a 1-2 for the Spanish team. Piepoli took the stage win but as he later tested positive for EPO, Cobo is now registered as the stage winner. That same day Cadel Evans took the yellow jersey for the first time in his career in the year when he had gone into the race as the major favourite. In 2000, Javier Otxoa took an impressive solo win from a breakaway, holding off Lance Armstrong by 42 seconds on a day when the American distanced Jan Ullrich by no less than 3.19. In 1996 Bjarne Riis sealed his overall win by winning the stage on the famous climb.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders have had pleasant conditions for the first two Pyrenean stages but unfortunately things are set to change for the final day in the mountains. At the start in Pau, it should be a pleasant 25 degrees on a partly cloudy day but as the riders get closer to the mountains, the conditions will become worse. Rain and fog is expected from the bottom of the Tourmalet and from there the riders can expect to do the rest of the race in wet conditions. The temperature at the top of the climbs will be 12-12 degrees and 18 degrees in the valley in between.

 

There will only be a light wind, mainly from a northerly direction, which means that the riders will first have a cross-tailwind and then a tailwind. Halfway up the Tourmalet, they will turn into a crosswind and then it will be a headwind in the valley in between the two climbs. The riders will both have cross- and tailwind section as they go through the many switchbacks on the final climb.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage provided us with another big battle between the favourites on a day when it was full gas on the entire stage. Tomorrow’s route is again a short and intense one and we can expect more of the same as the short distance means that the riders are usually a lot more aggressive and willing to take more risks.

 

Until now, the GC riders have always had to keep the next day in mind as there has always been another big mountain stage coming up. Tomorrow that’s no longer the case and as stage 19 is set to be one for the sprinters or a breakaway, there will be no reason to hold anything back for the GC riders. For the climbers, this will be the final chance to gain time on the time triallists and they need to make the most of it.

 

Like today’s stage, tomorrow’s course is a very short affair but otherwise they are not too similar. After the flat start to today’s stage, it was up or down all day which meant that it was the ideal stage for climbers and riders that wanted to move up in the GC to go on the attack. It was no surprise to see riders like Bauke Mollema, Frank Schleck and Jurgen Van Den Broeck make use of the opportunity to gain a bit of time.

 

Tomorrow’s stage may include two very big climbs but it also includes lots of flat roads. This means that it is less suitable for long-distance attacks and we will probably see all the GC riders save their energy for the final climb. The headwind in the valley after the Tourmalet doesn’t make it any easier and the long, flat stretch in the beginning will only make it harder for the climbers to make a difference.

 

As it is usually the case in the big mountain stages, it will probably take some time for the early break to be established. The break definitely has a chance to make it and lots of riders will be keen to give it a go. As the roads are flat, however, luck will play a big role in determining its composition and it will be hard for the climbers to be part of the action when the move finally takes off.

 

However, it may all be in vain as it will probably be hard for the break to make it all the way to the finish. Thibaut Pinot desperately wants to win a stage in this race and he has done nothing to show his intentions to do so. As his team is mostly made up of riders for the sprints, however, he has been unable to control the race. Tomorrow, however, the first part of the stage is flat and this means that he will be able to keep the break in a much tighter leash by using his many “heavy guys”.

 

We expect FDJ to make sure that the gap doesn’t get too big in the flat part but they still need to keep things under control on the Tourmalet as well. Here they may get some assistance from Astana. Vincenzo Nibali has proved that he doesn’t give everything away and he is keen to show that his win is fully deserved even though Alberto Contador and Chris Froome are not here. He has won a stage in the Vosges and the Alps and he would probably love to add one in the Pyrenees to the list as well.

 

Until now, his team has been riding conservatively in the Pyrenees but tomorrow they can allow themselves to go all in for the stage win. They will probably not have to do too much work in stage 19 and then there’s only a time trial and a mostly processional stage left. Hence, they can allow themselves to use a bit more energy to set their captain up for a stage win.

 

In today’s stage, Ag2r made the race explode on the penultimate climb and they may be keen to do so again on the Tourmalet. Alejandro Valverde showed signs of weakness in today’s stage and both Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud may be keen to use it to their advantage. It would be no surprise if they try to make the race hard on the Tourmalet as well.

 

With three teams that could potentially chase behind the break, we expect the GC riders to be battling it out for the stage win and this makes Vincenzo Nibali the obvious favourite. Until now, he has seemed to be the strongest rider and he has never appeared to be on his limit. Pinot managed to slightly drop him on the Port de Bales but as they were heading into a descent, the race leader probably deliberately decided not to go into the red. Today he was again clearly the strongest rider in the race.

 

The main question is whether he will go all in for the stage win but as said, he seems to be eager to prove that he really deserves this win. Until now, he has given no gifts and there is no reason to change that approach in tomorrow’s stage. If he keeps this advantage until the time trial, only bad luck can prevent him from winning the race and so there is no reason for him to hold anything back. We put our money on Nibali to take his fourth stage win in commanding fashion.

 

His biggest rival will probably be Thibaut Pinot. The FDJ leader has not been consistent in this race and he has had a few bad days along the way. When at 100%, however, he seems to be the second best climber in this race and if he has the legs he had on the Port de Bales, he may be able to keep up with Nibali. If it comes down to a sprint between the pair, he should be the fastest.

 

In any case, he will definitely ride a very aggressive race. If he wants to finish on the podium, he needs to gain time on either Peraud or Valverde and he will do his utmost to do. This may slightly hamper his chances to win the stage as he may be more focused on time gains than taking the victory.

 

In stages 14 and 17, Jean-Christophe Peraud has been able to keep up with Nibali and he doesn’t seem to be too far off the mark of the race leader. The Frenchman’s main goal is to finish on the podium but if he has the chance to win the stage, he will definitely grab it with both hands. It seems that Nibali has an extra gear compared to the Ag2r leader and we doubt that he will be able to get rid of the race leader. On the other hand, Nibali just has to show the slightest sign of weakness and Peraud will be ready to grab a win.

 

We are curious to see how Rafal Majka approaches the stage. His win in the mountains classification is definitely not guaranteed. If neither he nor Nibali scores any points on the Tourmalet and Nibali wins the stage, he needs to finish in the top 6 to win the polka-dot jersey.

 

He may try to go on the attack as Nibali will no longer be able to pass him if he is first or second on the Tourmalet. However, it will be difficult for him to get into the move in the flat first section but he may give it a try. If he joins the break, he has proved that he is hard to catch but he will definitely pay a price for his hard work in today’s stage. Furthermore, more teams will be chasing behind and with more flat roads, he probably needs a strong teammate in the break to help him drive it forward.

 

If he misses the break, he will definitely try to stay with the favourites as long as possible. There is no doubt that he is one of the best climbers in this race but we doubt that he is strong enough to keep up with Nibali, Pinot and Peraud. Furthermore, he will probably be riding a bit more conservatively as his main goal will be to win the mountains jersey. His biggest chance to win the stage will probably be from a breakaway but the last few days have proved that no one can rule out the strong Pole.

 

Another great breakaway candidate is Mikel Nieve. The Sky rider looked pretty strong in the early part of the race but like teammate Richie Porte he was set back by illness in the second week. Today he seemed to be back at full strength and he was able to mix it up with the race favourites. He will definitely try to join the early break which will be hard as the first part is flat but if he makes it, he has the strength to finish it off.

 

Lampre-Merida have had an unfortunate race so far and are down to just 5 riders but two of them are great stage winner candidates. Chris Horner and Jose Serpa are getting better and better and especially the Colombian seems to have been riding himself into peak condition. In stage 16, he was clearly the best climber in the breakaway and he will definitely try to make use of his form in tomorrow’s stage. If he has the legs he had yesterday, he could save Lampre’s Tour in the final mountain stage.

 

Horner went into the race short of form and he is still not even close to his best. However, he has been climbing at a decent level and everybody knows that the veteran American can never be underestimated. It will be hard for him to make the break but if he is there, he definitely has a shot.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Today Michael Rogers took it easy but tomorrow he will be ready to go again. The Australian is clearly riding really well at the moment and one way of protecting Majka’s mountains jersey could be to send their veteran on the attack. The flat first part suits him well and if he makes it into the break, he is definitely strong enough to finish it off.

 

Alessandro De Marchi has been on the attack in almost all mountain stages and even though he used a lot of energy in today’s stage he will definitely try again tomorrow. Being a strong rouleur, the flat first part suits him well and history shows that he is hard to catch when he is in the right breakaway. Having a fabulous ability to gauge his effort and time trial his way up the climb, he may finally be rewarded for his aggressive riding.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Vincenzo Nibali

Other winner candidates: Thibaut Pinot, Jean-Christophe Peraud

Outsiders: Rafal Majka, Mikel Nieve, Jose Serpa, Chris Horner

Jokers: Michael Rogers, Alessandro De Marchi