The GC battle will be put on hold for a single day as the Tour de France begins its long journey from the Pyrenees towards Paris but it doesn’t mean that the GC riders will get an easy day. For most teams, this is the final chance to win a stage and while the sprinters will love to have their chance, they can expect that most of the peloton will put a fight that could turn it into one of the fastest stages of the race.

 

The course

As the distance from the major mountains to Paris is pretty big and the penultimate stage is usually reserved for a time trial, the final Friday of the race often offers a transitional stage that brings the riders some of the way back up towards the French capital. In 2014 this is again the case and so the sprinters can look forwards to two genuine opportunities in the final three days of the race.

 

Stage 19 brings the riders over 208.5km from Maubourguet du Val d’Adour on the outskirts of the Pyrenees to Bergerac and consists of a long northerly journey in the direction of Paris. It is almost completely flat and the only highlight in the first 190km of the race is the intermediate sprint at the 130.5km mark. It is held on a long straight road but there is a short 400m climb just 1km from the line.

 

All day there has been nothing to challenge the sprinters but the organizers have decided to spice things up in the finale. Instead of continuing straight to the finish in Bergerac, the riders will do a small loop to go up the category 4 climb Cote de Montbazillac (1.3km 7.6%). The top comes 13km from the line and after a short descent, it is flat all the way to the finish. To make things even more complicated, the stage has the most technical finale of all the sprint stages. After the riders have gone through two roundabouts just after the 3km to go banner, the road is mostly straight until shortly after the flamme rouge. Here the riders do two sharp left-hand turns in quick succession which lead them onto the flat 490m finishing straight.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders were spared the forecasted rain in today’s stage but they may not be so lucky tomorrow. The riders are expected to take the start in wet conditions and it may even turn into rainstorms in the first part of the stage. As the day goes on, things are set to improve and even though there is always a risk of a shower, the riders can expect to finish the stage under a partly sunny sky. The temperature is expected to be 22-23 degrees throughout the entire stage.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction but it will freshen as the day goes on and in the finale it will come from a sourthwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a crosswind all day and in the final few kilometres, they will even have the feared cross-tailwind. After the final climb, there will first be a crosswind and then a cross-tailwind to the finish in Bergerac. The two turns inside the final kilometre mean that there will be a cross-headwind on the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

The GC riders now have the mountains behind them and all is set to be decided in Saturday’s time trial. Hence, they all hope to get as easily through tomorrow’s stage as possible to save their energy for one final big effort on the penultimate day.

 

While the GC riders hope to have an easy day, most of the teams go into this stage with a completely different mindset. 14 teams still haven’t won a stage and none of them have a rider a top sprinter that can win on the Champs-Elysees or an elite time triallist that can realistically go for glory in the time trial. This means that tomorrow’s stage is their final opportunity to win a stage and this means that most of the teams go into the stage with just a simple plan: to attack.

 

At the same time, several sprint teams have made it clear that they regard this stage as a big opportunity as this means that this stage is likely to be a big fight between the peloton and the breakaway. The first part of the stage is likely to be one of the fastest of the entire race as nobody wants to miss the early break. Whenever a break gets clear, a few key teams are likely to have missed out and they will do their utmost to bring it back together.

 

This means that it will probably take a very long time before the break finally takes off and it requires a massive effort by the sprint teams to control this early part of the stage. When the elastic finally snaps, it is time to evaluate the situation, talk to the rival sports directors and find out whether their riders are still fast enough to bring back what could potentially be a very big, strong breakaway.

 

They may get some help from teams that don’t have a real sprinter. In stage 16, Garmin-Sharp had missed the early move and even though they didn’t have a clear favourite, they decided to bring things back together to get back into the mix. Tomorrow the sports directors will be desperate to get the stage win and they don’t have to save energy for later. Even if their efforts are unlikely to pay off, we may see one or more teams lend the sprint teams a hand in an attempt to reopen the battle for victory.

 

If this stage had come in the first part of the race, it would have been a definite bunch sprint but at this point in a grand tour, things are different. The sprint teams are no longer fresh and it is much harder to keep things under control. Already in stage 15, they nearly lost the chance to sprint for the win and tomorrow things will become even harder as they are more fatigued and more riders will be keen to attack. Furthermore, there is that tricky little climb in the finale which is both a launch pad for attacks and may make the sprinters a bit uncertain about their ability to pass it with the best.

 

The outcome depends on how the sprint teams will approach the stage. Giant-Shimano have done nothing to hide that they will target this as a traditional sprint stage and will go all in for Marcel Kittel. The late climb could suit John Degenkolb better and the team may change its strategy along the way but in any case, they will work completely for a sprint finish.

 

For Peter Sagan, this is probably the final chance to win a stage and so Cannondale simply needs to work for their Slovakian captain. Alexander Kristoff is on a high at the moment and Katusha is also likely to lend a hand as they did on stage 15. Finally, Lotto Belisol will probably go all in for André Greipel after Jurgen Van Den Broeck has dropped out of GC contention.

 

If those four teams combine forces, there is a big chance that the stage will be decided in a bunch sprint, especially if they get some help from a few teams that have missed the break. Furthermore, they may be assisted by the crosswind. If the roads are exposed, the peloton will get nervous and this will automatically cause the pace to go up. We may even see a few GC teams or Omega Pharma-Quick Step try to make an attack if conditions are right.

 

In the finale, Cannondale will definitely go full gas up the final climb but if the sprinters hit the bottom near the front, the ascent is so short that they should be able to maintain contact. Furthermore, there is a long way to the finish and they will have plenty of time to get back into position.

 

At this point of a grand tour, freshness plays a key role and this means that Alexander Kristoff is our favourite to win the stage. The Norwegian is extremely strong and is likely to have recovered a lot better than the pure sprinters. In stage 15, he proved how fast he is at the end of a tough day and with the expected crosswinds and many attacks, tomorrow’s stage could turn out to be really hard. Furthermore, the late climb is a clear advantage for Kristoff as he will be able to survive it much better than most of his rivals.

 

In stage 15, Kristoff easily held off André Greipel and this shows that he is probably among the fastest at this point of the race. Furthermore, he is excellent at positioning himself and this will be important in the technical finale. With Luca Paolini to put him into position, the Norwegian will be hard to beat in a sprint finish.

 

Marcel Kittel is the joker of tomorrow’s stage. As said, Giant-Shimano go into the stage with the plan to ride for their fast German but things could change along the way. The German has been able to hang onto the peloton for some time on the climbs and this indicates that he is not too fatigued. He claims to have survived the mountains pretty well and last year he showed that he knows how to sprint at the end of a grand tour.

 

Kittel is of course the fastest sprinter but he is definitely not the strongest and if he is not up for the challenge on the finale climb, he may pass the baton on to John Degenkolb. Furthermore, the Giant-Shimano team has messed up their lead-out a bit in the last few stages and it will require an effort for them to bring Kittel back into position after the climb. Finally, the technical finale doesn’t suit him too well and so there is definitely no guarantee that he will win this one. However, he is still the fastest rider in this race and if he is in a good position in the final turn, he will be hard to beat.

 

André Greipel seems to have survived the mountains really well and he will be keen to win another stage. He should easily pass the final climb and be up there in the finale. Usually, he has been able to rely on his excellent lead-out but with Greg Henderson out of the race and Marcel Sieberg likely to be hampered by the late climb, he may have to free-lance a bit more in the finale. This is usually not his strong point but in the last few sprint finishes he has done well. On paper, he is the second fastest rider in this race and as he still seems to be pretty fresh, tomorrow could be his chance to shine.

 

If Kittel is not up for the challenge, John Degenkolb will be given his chance. The German is one of the strongest sprinters in this race and he will definitely benefit from the late climb. He is now almost fully recovered from his muscle injury and he is clearly still riding well. All year, he has been sprinting really well but he usually doesn’t handle positioning too well. The technical finale doesn’t suit him perfectly but if Giant-Shimano manages to bring him into position he has the speed to beat a rider like Kristoff.

 

For Peter Sagan, this is the final real opportunity to win a stage and he will definitely try to make the stage as hard as possible. However, there are many riders that are a lot faster than the Slovakian. His great positioning skills make him extremely consistent but it is hard to imagine that he will have the speed to beat a rider like Kristoff. On the other hand, the technical finale should suit him well and as he has had a couple of easier stages, he may have the freshness that could finally give him the win.

 

Arnaud Demare is another dark horse. The Frenchman is one of the fastest riders in the bunch and this technical finale suits him well. Usually, a late climb should be of his advantage but in this race he has been hugely inconsistent. In some stages he has been riding really well while he has been suffering a lot in others. Furthermore, he usually struggles a lot when it comes to positioning. On the other hand, he has the speed to win this kind of speed and if he is there in the finale he is one of the select few who can actually win this one.

 

Bryan Coquard has survived the mountains in his first grand tour exceptionally well and he hasn’t finished in the gruppetto in any stage at all. Furthermore, he is a much better climber than most of the sprinters and he will be able to survive the final climb better than most. Finally, he is one of the select few who have the speed to win this stage. He usually struggles when it comes to positioning but in a more chaotic finale late in a grand tour, he could be the one to benefit from the chaos.

 

As said, a breakaway may make it to the finish but due to the flat start, it is hard to guess which riders will eventually make it. However, Greg Van Avermaet has done nothing to hide his ambitions for this stage and today he decided not to attack as he wanted to save himself for tomorrow. He is in excellent condition at the moment and the finale suits him perfectly.

 

A few days ago, Martin Elmiger was close to winning a stage and the Swiss champion is clearly riding really well at the moment. He has been in several breaks so far and tomorrow he will definitely try again. He is climbing really well at the moment and is riding strongly on the flats. Finally, he has a fast sprint to finish it off.

 

Another rider that is riding really well is Jens Keukeleire. Orica-GreenEDGE will go all in in an attempt to put a rider in the break and the Belgian is one of their best options. He doesn’t seem to be too fatigued and has been climbing better than ever before. His fast sprint makes him a danger mane if he makes the right break.

 

Another rider that has been riding really well is Kevin Reza. The Europcar rider was in the break today and this may be a disadvantage tomorrow. On the other hand, he is clearly still fresh and he excels on these short climbs. Most importantly, he has as fast sprint that makes him a solid winner candidate if he makes the right break.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alexander Kristoff

Other winner candidates: John Degenkolb, André Greipel

Outsiders: John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan, Arnaud Demare, Bryan Coquard

Jokers: Greg Van Avermaet, Martin Elmiger, Jens Keukeleire, Kevin Reza