Marcel Kittel won the opening battle among the sprinters but there will be no double glory for the fast German. Tomorrow’s second stage is like a mini Liege-Bastogne-Liege and should see the classics riders come to the fore in what will be a very dynamic and nervous race.

 

The course

Last year the pure sprinters only got one chance to go for yellow as the second stage already offered some significant climbing. This year the race follows a similar formula and even though the second stage doesn’t have the long climbs of last year’s second day in Corsica, the many short, steep climbs in the finale will make sure that this is certainly not a day for the fast finishers. Instead, the classics specialists with lick their lips in anticipation and as most riders are equal on time, the yellow jersey will still be up for grabs for many.

 

The stage brings the riders over 201km from a start in York to a finish in Sheffield. The first part is pretty easy as the riders travel along flat roads in a westerly direction, passing Harrogate along the way. The only obstacle is the Cote de Blubberhouses (category 4, 1.8km, 6.1%) but when the riders turn south  and contest the flat, non-technical intermediate sprint at the 68.5km mark, the nature of the race changes.

 

In the hilly terrain on the western outskirts of Sheffield, the riders face no less than 8 categorized climbs and in between there a lot of non-categorized ascents, meaning that there are virtually no flat roads in the final 130km of the stage. The Cote d’Oxenhope Moor (category 3, 3.1km, 6.4%), Cote de Ripponden (category 3, 1.3km, 8.6%), Cote de Greetland (category 3, 1.6km 6.7%) and the Cote de Holme Moss (category 2, 4.7km, 7%) serve as a wam-up for the hectic finale that sees the riders tackle four categorized climbs in quick succession inside the final 40km of the stage.

 

The Cote de Middlehouses (category 3, 2.5km, 6.1%), Cote de Bradfield (category 4, 1km, 7.4%), Cote de Oughtibridge (category 3, 1.5km, 9.1%) and Cote de Jenkin Road (category 4, 800m, 10.8%) are not very long but they are all pretty steep and there is little room for recovery in between. The penultimate climb comes 19km from the finish and from there the terrain is predominantly flat but the steep final climb will spice things up just 5km from the line. Furthermore, the finale is pretty technical as the roads are twisting inside the final 5km and see the riders pass under a tunnel and over a bridge around the 3km to go mark. The final 3km offer two sweeping 180-degree turns before the riders get onto the completely flat finishing straight that is a little more than 1km long.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Going into the British stages, the riders feared that wind and rain would make things even more difficult but they could not have wished better conditions for today’s opening stage. Luckily it seems that they will again be spared rain in tomorrow’s tricky stage even though the risk of a shower is there.

 

It will be a cloudy day but as the riders approach the finish, the sun may break through. The temperature will reach a maximum of 18 degrees.

 

Today was pretty windy but tomorrow there will only be a light breeze, mainly from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind in the first part before turning into a cross-tailwind that gradually becomes a tailwind. It will be a tailwind in the run-in to the finish but as the riders do their small loop in the final to tackle the final climb, they will turn into a crosswind. That will mainly be the conditions for the final part but it will be headwind on the climb while there will be a few tailwind sections after the top. It will be a crosswind for the final kilometer.

 

The favourites

In the days leading up to this year’s Tour de France, the stage that attracted most attention was probably the second one. Already back in April, Giant-Shimano did a recon and they described it as a kind of mini Liege-Bastogne-Liege. As more and more teams have checked out the course, the impression has been confirmed and while a lot of riders have marked it out as one of their best opportunities to take a stage win, the GC riders are all wary about what to expect on what should be a very nervous day.

 

It may not be as long as the Belgian classics and the climbs may not be quite as tough but the many successive ascents make this stage look like an Ardennes classic. What has attracted most attention, however, are the extremely narrow roads and Marcel Kittel has even used the route to ask the race organizers to take rider safety more into account when designing their courses.

 

It won’t be too windy but if it starts to rain, it will only become even more nervous. From the start of the hilly zone, all riders want to stay near the front and this stage could easily end up as a crash fest. Many have predicted that at least one GC rider will lose time in the opening days in Yorkshire and this is the day most likely to create the differences. The climbs will not be enough to put the main contenders into difficulty but crashes could spell an end to the podium aspirations for a hopeful team captain.

 

The stage will probably be off to a very fast start. While most teams are unwilling to spend energy by going on the attack in the flat stages, a lot of them will have picked this one. The terrain is very hard to control and this gives the early break a real chance. Furthermore, there is a mountains jersey up for grabs and there is a big chance that the rider who wears polka-dots at the end of the day will hold it until the peloton hits the Vosges next weekend.

 

Hence, it will be a big battle for the early break to be established. When it takes off, there should be a small chance to recover a bit, with the intermediate sprint offering some action. The pure sprinters know that they have no chance in this stage and so the likes of André Greipel and maybe Marcel Kittel will probably go full gas in a quest to score as many points as possible.

 

We doubt that the early break will make it to the finish. Cannondale and Orica-GreenEDGE have both red-circled this stage and they will do their utmost to keep things under control. Furthermore, the very nervous peloton will make for a pretty fast race and it would be no surprise to see teams like Tinkoff-Saxo and Sky take control in an attempt to keep their captains safe. Hence, the break will probably not get too much leeway and they should be reeled in before the finish.

 

The real danger for the riders who hope for a sprint finish from a reduced group, are the late attacks that could cause an upset. Cannondale are probably not strong enough to control the race on their own but they may get some help from the GC teams that try to keep their captains safe. As the final 19km are relatively easy, it will be hard for a break to stay away and the most likely scenario is that things will be back together by the time, they hit the final climb.

 

We are guaranteed to see attacks on Jenkins road and we could even see the GC riders try to make a move – just recall how Froome attacked on a similar climb in the finale of last year’s second stage. However, no one will be able to drop Peter Sagan on such a climb and the Slovakian will make sure to mark everything closely. As no one wants to ride with him, the real dangers for the Cannondale leader are not the attacks on the climb.

 

What could prevent a sprint finish are the flat roads. If Sagan has no teammates at his side, he will have to cover everything himself and that will be an impossible task. In last year’s second stage, the finale was very similar. No one escaped on the final climb but after the top, a group went away. Jan Bakelants managed to stay away and Sagan’s sprint win was only good enough for second. There is a big chance that a similar scenario could be created in tomorrow’s stage and the likes of Alessandro De Marchi and Kristijan Koren really have to be on the top of their game to ensure a sprint finish for Sagan.

 

Nonetheless, we will put our money on Sagan. The Slovakian really excels in this terrain and there is no chance that he will get dropped. With the GC teams likely to help Cannondale along the way, he can probably save a few teammates for the finale. Both De March and Koren are pretty strong climbers and as more teams will have missed the break, they can expect a bit of help in the finale.

 

Sagan is definitely not the fastest rider in the peloton but among the riders that are likely to survive in this stage, he is in a class of his own. If it comes down to a sprint finish, he will be the overwhelming favourite. He needs to avoid playing with the muscles likes he did in stage 6 of the Tour de Suisse but he probably has learnt the lesson. With the yellow jersey being decided on a countback, Sagan could find himself with a stage win and in both yellow and green tomorrow afternoon.

 

His biggest rival is Simon Gerrans. Last year the Australian champion made the third stage his big objective and he delivered on his promises when he took a surprise victory over Sagan in a sprint from a reduced group. The Liege-Bastogne-Liege champion is no sprinter but he has a very fast finish and has won bunch sprints in the past. Last year he proved that he has the speed to beat Sagan and he will hope to do so again tomorrow.

 

Gerrans went down in a crash in today’s stage but he seems to have escaped the incident without many injuries. His team remains confident in his chances and says that he will still be their main man for the stage that is probably their biggest objective for the entire race.

 

It will be interesting to see how Orica-GreenEDGE manages the stage. Last year they made stage 3 hard by sending Simon Clarke on the attack and this year they probably have a similar plan. We can expect the likes of Michael Albasini, Clarke and Simon Yates to animate the finale or get involved in the early break and they will be allowed to play their cards if their moves stay away. The team has a lot of options for this kind of terrain and doesn’t need to focus solely on a sprint finish. Gerrans is likely to save himself for a sprint and if it comes down to a battle between the fast guys he has a definite chance to come away with the win.

 

Greg Van Avermaet is mostly here to support Tejay van Garderen but he has been allowed to give it a go on select days and stage 2 is definitely one his big priorities. He tried to mix it up in today’s sprint and made it clear that tomorrow’s stage is one of his targets.The finale suits the classics specialist perfectly but he knows that he won’t be able to beat Sagan in a sprint finish. The Belgian will probably try to attack in the finale and as he is likely to be one of the first riders at the top of the final climb, he could find himself in a move that stays away. In that case, his fast sprint will make him a danger man.

 

Fabian Cancellara has a much freer role than usual and he will be free to chase stage wins whenever he sees his chance. His big goal is stage 5 but he definitely also has his sights on tomorrow’s stage. He is pretty strong in this kind of terrain and will be hard to drop. He may not have shown the best condition in the build-up but today he launched a very strong acceleration in the finale. He won’t be the one to attack on the final climb but expect him to take off on the descent or on the flat stretch to the finish. If he gets clear, he will be hard to get back and he has a fast sprint to finish it off.

 

Tony Gallopin showed in the Dauphiné that he is great condition and this stage suits the Clasica San Sebastian winner perfectly. He should be one of the fastest on the final climb and may go on the attack in the finale. His main objective will be to support Jurgen van den Broeck but with Bart De Clercq, Adam Hansen and Lars Bak also on hand he may get carte blanche. With his fast sprint, he can finish off a late attack in the best possible way.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE are likely to play a number of cards and one of them involves sending Michael Albasini off in an attack. In the Tour de Suisse and the Swiss championships he proved that he is in great condition and no one is stronger than winning WorldTour stages than the fabulous Swiss. The Tour victory is still missing on his palmarés but he is bound to win one at some point. If he escapes in the finale, tomorrow could be his day as he has a very fast sprint.

 

Last year Jan Bakelants won a very similar second stage by attacking in the finale and he would love to repeat that feat. Tomorrow Cavendish won’t play a role and he is likely to get carte blanche to attack in the finale. He is not very fast in a sprint and will probably have to arrive alone at the finish. However, the wily Belgian knows how to time his attacks and he has the speed to finish it off.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is very versatile and this stage suits him perfectly. As a GC contender, he won’t be given any leeway but he has a fast sprint and there is no doubt that he will give it a shot. He is unlikely to beat Sagan but last year he was not far off the Slovakian in stage 2 and 3. Look out for the Pole to use his fast sprint to take his first Tour victory.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Jose Joaquin Rojas and Armindo Fonseca are both strong enough to survive the climbing and they both have lots of sprinting experience. On paper they are not as fast as Sagan and they need everything to go their way to take a stage win. However, they will both give it a try and they definitely have an outside chance to win.

 

With Mark Cavendish licking his wounds, there may be a bit more room for the Omega Pharma-Quick Step riders to chase some success. This year Tony Martin has been climbing excellently and he should be there in the finale. If the riders are looking at each other after the final climb, the world time trial champion may take off and if he gets a gap, he will be virtually impossible to get back.

 

Samuel Dumoulin excels on short, steep climbs and he has a very fast sprint at the end. He knows that he won’t beat Sagan in a sprint and so he is likely to go on the attack in the finale. If he makes it into the right group, he is likely to be one of the fastest and this could see him take a second Tour stage win.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo is all about Alberto Contador but if the captain is safe, Daniele Bennati may get his chance to sprint. The Italian is a very solid climber and there is a big chance that he will be there if it comes down to a sprint. Last year he got close to beating Sagan and he definitely has a chance to do so. He is no longer the prolific winner he once was but this stage is definitely a good chance for him.

 

On paper this stage should be too tough for the likes of Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff, Sacha Moldolo and John Degenkolb but they are all decent climbers and have a chance to create a surprise. They are all very fast in a sprint and some of the select few who can beat Sagan in a sprint finish. Modolo was set back by a crash in today's stage but didn't hit the ground himself. They are unlikely to make it to the finish with the best but you can never completely rule out those fast finishers.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: Simon Gerrans, Greg Van Avermaet

Outsiders: Fabian Cancellara, Tony Gallopin, Michael Albasini, Michal Kwiatkowski

Jokers: Jose Joaquin Rojas, Armindo Fonseca, Tony Martin, Daniele Bennati, Samuel Dumoulin, Sacha Modolo, John Degenkolb, Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff