Marcel Kittel proved to be in a class of his own in today’s royal sprint in London but his rivals will get an immediate opportunity to take revenge when the Tour de France returns to its home country for tomorrow’s fourth stage. A mostly flat run through Belgium and France should set the scene for another big battle between the fastest riders on the eve of the highly anticipated stage over the Paris-Roubaix cobbles.

 

The course

The race is now back in France after having crossed the English Channel overnight and will spend a few days in the flat terrain in Northern France, partly as part of the commemorations for the centenary of the First World War. This gives the sprinters a few more options to go add to their account in the first week of the race and the first one comes on the first day in the home country of the race.

 

The riders will travel 163.5km from the coastal city of Le Toucquet-Paris-Plage to Villeneuve-D’Ascq Lille Metropole just south of the French-Belgian border and a big part of the stage will take place on Belgian soil. The first part follows mainly flat roads in a northeasterly direction, with the Cote de Campagnette (category 4, 1km, 6.5%) being the only obstacle at the 34km mark. Having crossed the border just before the feed zone, the riders will contest a very interesting intermediate sprint up the famous Mount Cassel that is known from Gent-Wevelgem. With the final 3km being all uphill and pretty technical, it is certainly not one for the pure sprinters.

 

Then it’s back into flat terrain as the riders head in a southwesterly direction towards Lille, with the Mont Noir (category 4, 1.3km, 5.7%) being the only slight challenge. The final 46km are almost completely flat and the riders will get back onto French soil near the end. The finale in Lille is a bit technical as there are a number of turns inside the final 5km. From a little more than 3km out, however, the road is mostly straight, with a sharp left-hand turn coming 1.3km from the finish. The road bends slightly to the left just before the line, leading the riders onto the 300m finishing straight. The final kilometre is slightly uphill with an average gradient of 1-2% until the 300m to go mark from where it is slightly descending to the finish.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders got their only taste of the feared British rain in the finale of today’s stage which made the roads in London very slick. Most of them will be frustrated to learn that things are a lot worse in France and there is a big risk that they will again have to sprint on wet roads.

 

All night it will be raining in Northern France but the weather forecasts currently it to stop in the early afternoon. With a late start to the stage, there is a chance that the riders will have dry conditions for the entire race but the roads will probably be wet for most of the day. The temperature at the finish in Lille will reach a maximum of 18 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northwesterly direction which means that the riders will mostly have a crosswind in the first part before they turn into a tailwind after the intermediate sprint. In the finale, they will have a cross-tailwind for most of the final 5km.

 

The favourites

Marcel Kittel again proved that he is the fastest sprinter in the world when he took a hugely dominant victory in today’s royal sprint in London. As we had already predicted in yesterday’s preview, the slightly descending tailwind sprint suited his powerful sprinting style down to the ground and when it comes down to top speed, the German is simply unbeatable. Furthermore, his team proved that they currently form the strongest lead-out train in the world and when Kittel is delivered on the front, there is not much his rivals can do.

 

Tomorrow’s stage should be another definite opportunity for the sprinters and there is no doubt that Giant-Shimano will do their utmost to make it three from four for their German sprinter. However, it will be interesting to see how much help they will get throughout the day as Kittel’s rivals now have to find alternative ways to beat the German and that could include tiring out his team before the finale.

 

In any case, there should be no big fight to get into the early break. As we already claimed yesterday, the days when a lot of teams are interested in suicide attacks, are over, and most of the squads now use their energy a lot more wisely. Today the break was established straight from the gun and there is a big chance that the first attack will again be successful in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Unlike today, there are mountain points up for grabs and Cyril Lemoine (Cofidis) cannot be sure to keep his lead. There may only be two points on offer but both Jens Voigt (Trek) and Blel Kadri (Ag2r) can take the jersey while Nicolas Edet (Cofidis) can get equal on points with the current leader. It would be no surprise to see some of these riders in the break in addition to the usual Bretagne rider.

 

Today Astana did surprisingly much work as Alessandro Vanotti, Maxim Iglinskiy and Dmitriy Gruzdev all contributed to the pace-setting right up till the feed zone. The Kazakh team clearly intends to honour the jersey and is keen to protect Nibali’s lead – and the good car position – until after the cobbles stage. Hence, we can again expect Astana to take control when the break has been established.

 

They will be joined by Giant-Shimano who will again use Cheng Ji for the early work and one would also expect Lotto Belisol to join the action. However, André Greipel has not had an awful lot of success yet and they may be frustrated by Giant-Shimano’s tactics over the last few day. In the finale of today’s stage, Giant-Shimano didn’t do any work at all before they launched their train with 4km to go, meaning that they had lots of resources left to dominate the sprint. On the other hand, Lars Bak did an awful lot of work for Lotto Belisol and he was clearly frustrated not to get much help from his Dutch rivals.

 

Lotto Belisol are unlikely to again do the lion’s share of the work and so Giant-Shimano will probably have to be a bit more active. On the other hand, Lotto Belisol haven’t lost confidence in Greipel yet – after all a sprint win is one of their two objectives – and there is no doubt that they will be active in the chase. However, they may back off a bit compared to what they have done over the last few days.

 

Europcar may now have more confidence in Bryan Coquard and they could join the action if things get dangerous and FDJ could also be up for the challenge. A lot of teams are interested in a sprint finish and unless a tactical battle between Lotto Belisol and Giant-Shimano confuses things, it should all come down to a bunch sprint.

 

Before the riders get to the sprint, they have to contest a very interesting intermediate sprint on the Casselberg. Today only Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, Arnaud Demare and Greg Van Avermaet showed any interest in the points and in this kind of sprint there is no chance that Kittel and Greipel will use any energy. Sagan, Van Avermaet and Coquard may all try to pick up some points but in this sprint, Sagan should be pretty unrivalled. However, the Slovakian will be keen not to go full gas and his main ambition is to score as many points as possible without using too much energy.

 

For the expected bunch sprint, it is hard to look beyond Kittel as the big favourite. The German is clearly the fastest sprinter in the race and his team has now also demonstrated that it is the strongest. In the past few years, Lotto Belisol have usually dominated the sprints but this year Giant-Shimano have taken the lead position. With the strongest sprinter being supported by the strongest team, Kittel will be hard to beat.

 

Today things got dangerous for the team when Marcel Kittel and final lead-out man Tom Veelers lost the wheels of their teammates. However, Veelers managed to bring Kittel back into position and they latched onto the wheel of Koen De Kort in time for the sprint. The combination Timmer-Dumoulin-Curvers-Degenkolb-De Kort-Veelers-Kittel currently seems to be unbeatable and they definitely have the firepower to dominate the finale. It seems that the rivals only have a chance to beat Kittel if he loses contact with his teammates in the finale.

 

Today’s sprint suited Kittel perfectly and tomorrow’s is another good one for the German. A cross-tailwind will make it very fast and there are no major technical challenges inside the final kilometres which suit a real power sprinter like Kittel. There may be a slight rise inside the final kilometre but it should do nothing to challenge the German who won a much harder sprint on stage 1. The odds are definitely on Kittel to make it 3 from 4.

 

Despite the failures, his biggest rival remains André Greipel. The German is the second fastest sprinter in the bunch and he is supported by the only team that is strong enough to challenge Giant-Shimano. However, nothing has worked for the Belgian team so far.

 

Today the main problems for the team were the slick roads. Greipel has never been very strong at positioning himself and has usually relied heavily on his strong team. He is often pretty afraid when things get dangerous as they did today on the slick roads. This caused him to constantly lose the wheel of his teammates and while most of the riders stayed together, their captain was often off the back. In the end he was completely out of position and when Jürgen Roelandts tried to launch the train in the penultimate turn, he found himself completely on his own on the front.

 

Things may not have been working well for Lotto yet but the team definitely has the firepower to dominate the finales. If they can find back the level they had last year, they have a chance to put Giant-Shimano on the defensive. Greipel has to do a lot better job to stay with his teammates but if he is delivered on the front, he has the speed to finish it off.

 

We have very often claimed that Bryan Coquard is one of the fastest sprinters in the world. However, we have also pointed out his poor positioning skills that have often caused him to finish outside the top 10 in the sprint stages. In his debut Tour de France, however, Yohann Gene and Kevin Reza have done an excellent job for their sprinter and Coquard has finally got his big breakthrough on the biggest scene.

 

Europcar is not strong enough to dominate the finales but they have now proved that they can position their sprinter well. Tomorrow’s finish should suit Coquard slightly better than today’s very fast one. Of course it will be hard for him to beat Kittel but if things don’t work perfect for Giant-Shimano, Coquard is one the sprinters who has the speed to finish it off.

 

Mark Renshaw has taken over sprinting duties from Mark Cavendish and he did well by taking third in today’s stage. Renshaw is definitely not the fastest sprinter in the business but he has a pretty strong team at his side. Today Omega Pharma-Quick Step tried to take control but they went a bit too early. If they can time it a bit better, they may have the strength to deliver Renshaw on the front and this could give the Australian a surprise victory.

 

Arnaud Demare has had a disastrous Tour so far and today he again lost out due to his main disadvantage which is his poor positioning. However, Demare remains one of the fastest riders in the bunch and he is one of the select few with the speed to actually win one of these sprints. For it to happen, Mickael Delage and William Bonnet need to drop him off in the perfect position and he needs not to get boxed in as he got in today’s sprint. Tomorrow’s sprint doesn’t suit him perfectly but if gets a clear run to the line he can take the win.

 

Peter Sagan is very likely to finish in the top 3 but very unlikely to win the stage. The Slovakian knows that he can’t beat Kittel in these finishes and he is more concerned about scoring points for the green jersey than trying to win the stage. He is probably the best at positioning which he proved today when he won the battle for Kittel’s wheel where he stayed all the way to the line. In this way, he maximized his points tally but didn’t try to win the stage. He is likely to have a similar tactic in tomorrow’s stage but no one can completely rule out the talented Slovakian.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. In 2011 Romain Feillu was one of the fastest sprinters in the Tour de France but he has had a disastrous last few seasons. Having recently won a stage in the Ronde de l’Oise, however, he seems to be getting more confidence and he is clearly riding well. Today he finished 9th in the stage and earlier in his career he was great at positioning himself. If he can find back those skills, a top 5 finish is within his reach.

 

Sacha Modolo is out of the race and this means that Lampre-Merida are now focused on Maximilano Richeze and Davide Cimolai in the sprints. On paper, the latter is the fastest of the pair but as he has already crashed twice, he is fighting hard just to stay in the race. Instead, Cimolai is likely to be the protected sprinter. He is unlikely to finish in the top 5 but look out for the Italian to mix it up in the sprint.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Bryan Coquard

Outsiders: Mark Renshaw, Arnaud Demare, Alexander Kristoff

Jokers: Romain Feillu, Davide Cimolai