The waiting time is over! Tomorrow is the day of the highly anticipated fifth stage that takes the riders over nine sectors of the Paris-Roubaix cobbles. With bad weather forecasted, it is going to be carnage as GC riders mix it up with classics specialists in what could be one of the most dramatic Tour de France stages in recent years.

 

The course

When the Tour de France course was announced in October, the attention was not taken by the mountains or the time trial. Instead, almost all focus was on an almost completely flat stage in Northern France that can potentially have a bigger impact on the outcome of the race than any of the big mountain stages in the Pyrenees in the final week of the race.

 

With the race set to commemorate the centenary of the First World War and so had to spend a few days in Northern France, it was always tempting for the organizers to return to the Paris-Roubaix cobbles for the first time since 2010. No other race has a history so heavily connected to the World Wars as the Queen of the Classics and so the rumours of a cobbled stage soon started to surface.

 

The organizers confirmed them when they announced the route and a lot of GC riders immediately expressed their concern. With so much at stake, the nervousness and battle for position will be fierce and as most of the riders have very little experience in this kind of racing, crashes are bound to happen. Due to this stage, a lot of riders go into the race without making too many long-term plans as they first need to see how they get through the battle on the cobbles. The GC contenders have all spent time doing recon rides in a part of France they rarely visit and Alejandro Valverde even did a few cobbled classics to get ready for this particular stage.

 

The roads may be known from Paris-Roubaix but the distance will be a completely different affair as it is a pretty short stage over just 155.5km from Ypres to Arenberg Porte du Hainaut. The race starts in Belgium and starts with a small, completely flat loop in the cycling-mad country before taking on the southerly journey back to the home country of the race.

 

The riders cross the border just before reaching Roubaix after 64.5km of racing and then continue along flat roads for another 25km before the hostilities begin. The final half of the stage consists of a southeasterly run with no less than 9 pavé sectors along the way, with some of the most feared among them.

 

The first one is the dreaded Carrefour de l’Arbre (1100m) that is usually the decision maker in Paris-Roubaix and it comes 68.5km from the finish. A flat non-technical intermediate sprint disrupts the battle for a little while but from there, there is little room for recovery. Pont-Thibault (1400m, 52km from the finish), the famous Mons-en-Pevele (1000m, 45.5km from the finish), Bersee (1400m, 41km from the finish), Beuvry-la-Foret (1400m, 30km from the finish), Tilloy-les-Marchiennes (2400m, 24.5km from the finish), Warlaing (1400m, 20.5km from the finish, Hornaing (3700m, 15.5km from the finish) and Wallers (1600m, 6.5km from the finish) are mostly  well-known challenges from Paris-Roubaix and even though some of them have been shortened a bit compared to Paris-Roubaix, they are likely to split the race to pieces.

 

Having exited the final sector, the riders follow almost completely flat roads for the final 6.5km. Between the 3km and 2km to go marks, there are a few turns but then it’s onto a straight road that leads to the final sharp turn with 900m to go. A sweeping turn brings the riders onto the flat 640m finishing straight that is well-known by the classics specialists as the race ends just at the entrance of the Arenberg pave, just as the stage did back in 2010.

 

The cobbles were last used in 2010 when the exact same finish was used. Back then, however, there were fewer kilometres of pave and the final section was farther from the finish. Nonetheless, the selection was pretty big but it was mostly caused by a big crash that took Frank Schleck out of the race on one of the first sectors. Thor Hushovd won the sprint from a 6-rider group that contained GC contenders Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck while a small group with Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Bradley Wiggins arrived 53 seconds later. Alberto Contador was also in that group but a late mechanical saw him lose another 20 seconds while Lance Armstrong had a lot of bad luck and finished with the first big group. In 2004, the cobbles were also on the course and back then it spelled the end for Iban Mayo’s podium aspirations on a day when Jean-Patrick Nazon won a bunch sprint.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The fifth stage was always expected to be carnage but things will get significantly more complicated as the riders can expect very bad weather conditions for their battle on the rough surface. Rain is forecasted for the entire stage on what should be a very cold day. The temperature will only reach a maximum of 13 degrees which is quite unusual for a Tour de France stage.

 

Things will be made even more dangerous by the fact that there will be blowing a strong wind from a northwesterly direction which turns into a westerly direction towards the end of the stage. This means that the riders will have a crosswind in the first few kilometres before turning into a cross-tailwind for most of the stage. On sectors 6 and 5, the riders will have a direct tailwind while there will be a crosswind for sectors 4, 3 and 2. There will be a tailwind on the final sector before the riders turn into a crosswind for the 640m finishing straight.

 

The favourites

There may have been cobbles in the Tour de France in the past but never before have the organizers designed a stage with the same level of difficulty as the one the peloton will tackle tomorrow. First of all, the number of pave sectors is much bigger than it has been in the past and secondly, the inclusion of Carrefour de l’Arbre and Mons-en-Pevele means that they are a lot harder than they have been in the past. Finally, the last sector comes very close to the finish, meaning that it will be possible to make a difference right until the end.

 

The brutal weather conditions will complicate things even further as not even the biggest classics specialists have ever done a muddy Paris-Roubaix. The last rainy edition of the classic was back in 2002 and so only the oldest riders in the peloton have any experience of racing over wet cobbles. Not even Fabian Cancellara – one of the biggest Paris-Roubaix specialists – has been racing in such conditions and the Swiss has already questioned the inclusion of cobbles in a race where most of the peloton is made up of riders that have no experience with cobbles at all.

 

The mixed field also means that the race will be a lot different compared to Paris-Roubaix. In that race, everybody is riding for the win – or at least a top result on the day – while tomorrow most of the teams go into the race with the plan to limit their GC losses. Only a select few riders and teams have the stage victory as their main goal and this should make for a completely different dynamic.

 

Furthermore, the race is a lot shorter than Paris-Roubaix. At just 155.5km, the riders will have 100km less in their legs than they have in the classic and so it will not be the same kind of race of attrition as the one that unfolds in April. It will be much harder for the specialists to make a difference as fatigue will play less of a role and there is a much bigger chance that a small group will sprint it out for the win.

 

The stage is likely to be extremely fast already from the gun. With a strong cross-tailwind for most of the day, everybody wants to stay in the front as soon as Christian Prudhomme has waved the flag to signal the official start and the peloton may split even before the riders have reached the cobbles.

 

Furthermore, we can expect a lot of attacks in the early part. Everybody knows that a break has virtually no chance of making it to the finish but a lot of riders will be keen to avoid the fierce battle for positioning by gaining an advantage before they reach the cobbles. In the cobbled classics, an early escapee may take a top result by being ahead at the time when the main selection is made and then stay with the main favourites by the time they come from behind. In 2010, Ryder Hesjedal set himself up for his overall top 10 finish by finishing with the best group after having been on the attack all day and a lot of riders will have similar plans tomorrow.

 

This means that it will probably take a long time for the break to be established and it is unlikely to get much of advantage. The nervous atmosphere means that the pace will be very past throughout the entire stage and this will make it impossible to get much leeway. It may not even be necessary for a single team to do any chasing as the fight for position may be enough to keep the pace high but if any chase work is needed, a lot of teams will have a keen interest in leading the charge as this stage is one of their big targets. Expect to see Cannondale, Giant-Shimano, Katusha, Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Trek do their share of the work to keep the break under control.

 

Undoubtedly, there will be made a selection on the cobbles as gaps will open up when the many non-experienced riders will be unable to hold wheels. However, the splits could also be caused by crashes as it happened in 2010 when Frank Schleck went down while riding in one of the front positions, allowing a select group to ride clear. Which riders will make it into the best group won’t necessarily be determined by the skills on the cobbles but more by the positioning going into the paves. The riders that will excel will be the ones with the strongest teams to keep them near the front by the time they reach the cobbles.

 

In the finale, we can expect the peloton be split into several smaller groups and it will probably be one big pursuit over the final sectors. The fact that many teams are mostly focused on the GC means that it will be hard for the specialists to attack and arrive alone at the finish. As the GC riders are likely to have been split in several groups, there will always be riders with an interest in keeping the pace high to maximize their gains and so the finales will be less tactical than usual. Hence, the winner is likely to be a fast rider with good skills on the cobbles, a strong team and great positioning abilities.

 

Peter Sagan fits the bill perfectly. The Slovakian may not have done an awful lot of Paris-Roubaix editions and he is definitely not the biggest specialist in this kind of racing. This year, however, he proved that he knows how to ride the cobbles when he returned after a two-year absence and finished sixth after having launched a solo attack in the finale.

 

Sagan’s main disadvantage in the classics is that he usually struggles in the very long races but tomorrow he won’t have to deal with that kind of difficulty. In such a short race, we doubt that anyone will be able to drop Sagan on the cobbles but his main assets are his positioning skills. He may not have the best team at his side but there is no doubt that he will be among the very first to enter the pave and this time he may not be setback by tactics in the finale. With the GC teams keen to keep the pace high all the way to the finish, he doesn’t have to shut down all moves by himself and he just have to react to his main rivals. Evidently, he is one of the fastest in a sprint and this makes the Slovakian our favourite to win the stage.

 

However, he will be up against some fierce competitors. Until now, John Degenkolb has been riding at the service of Marcel Kittel but tomorrow he will be the captain. Stage 5 is one of his big targets in this race and the German is one of the very best riders for the cobbled classics. This year he rode excellently in the Flemish races before taking second in Paris-Roubaix and this makes him an obvious candidate.

 

Degenkolb is great at positioning himself but he is not as skilled as Sagan. There is a bigger chance that he will be missing from the front group and this explains our decision to make Sagan our favourite. In a sprint at the end of a hard race, however, Degenkolb is usually faster than Sagan and if he is still there at the end, we will put our money on another win for Giant-Shimano.

 

Alexander Kristoff seems to be in the condition of his life. In stage 2, he climbed better than some of the GC riders in the Yorkshire Hills and today he did a fantastic long-distance sprint that nearly gave him the stage win. Kristoff was maybe the strongest rider in this year’s Tour of Flanders and he is even better suited to Paris-Roubaix where he was set back by bad luck.

 

Kristoff is virtually unbeatable in a sprint at the end of a hard race but this stage may be a bit too short to suit him perfectly. On the other hand, the bad weather will make it really tough and this will suit the big Norwegian. He doesn’t have a very strong team to support him but usually handles the positioning decently. Look out for the Katusha captain who has a big chance to take his first ever Tour stage victory.

 

Many riders have pointed to Fabian Cancellara as the big favourite but it will be hard for him to take the win. As said, the shorter distance and many GC interests mean that it will be difficult to arrive alone at the finish and Cancellara will be heavily marked. He will do his utmost to get clear on his own but he doesn’t seem to be in his classics condition at the moment. We doubt that he will be able to drop the likes of Sagan, Kristoff and Degenkolb and it will be hard for him to beat them in a sprint. On the other hand, Cancellara is pretty fast at the end of a hard race as he proved earlier this year in Sanremo, Roubaix and the Tour of Flanders. Hence, nobody can rule out a sprint victory for the Trek rider.

 

Greg Van Avermaet seems to be riding extremely well at the moment and even though he is more suited to the Flemish classics, he is an excellent Paris-Roubaix rider as well. Last year he finished on the podium and tomorrow he hopes to take the yellow jersey. His team will be focused on Tejay van Garderen but Van Avermaet will be given carte blanche to take his own chance. He is not as fast as Sagan, Degenkolb and Kristoff but at the end of a hard race, things may be different than usual. In stage 2, he beat Sagan in the sprint for second and he definitely has a shot at victory.

 

Sep Vanmarcke is one of the very best riders for the cobbled classics but tomorrow his main goal is to help Bauke Mollema gain time on his rivals. However, Belkin is one of the strongest teams and there is a solid chance that they will have numerous riders in the front group. If Mollema is safe, Vanmarcke will be allowed to play his cards and in that case, he will be a danger man. He is fast and very skilled on the cobbles and he could take the big victory that he failed to achieve in the spring.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Arnaud Demare showed his incredible sprinting skills in today’s stage but he is much more than a pure sprinter. In fact he is a great classics rider as well and he has taken some decent results in the cobbled classics. He may not be at the level of the best and he doesn’t have the strongest team to support him but over the shorter distance he has a chance. We doubt that he will make it into the front group but if he is there he will probably be the fastest.

 

Luca Paolini loves the spring classics and he will be riding for the win in tomorrow’s stage. He may have to put himself in the service of Alexander Kristoff but if the Norwegian is not there in the finale, he will play his own cards. Paolini knows how to time a late move and save energy and he is pretty fast in the sprint. This stage is his big goal in this race and he will definitely be a danger man.

 

Omega Pharma-Quick Step have a very strong team for this kind of racing and are led by Niki Terpstra. However, the Dutchman is unlikely to win in a sprint and it will be hard for him to come out on top. Due to the team’s strength, however, Matteo Trentin may make it into the front group as he is a very skilled rider on the cobbles. He knows how to win a sprint after a hard race as he proved in the Tour de Suisse and he could be the rider to shine for his Belgian team.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is a GC rider but he has one of the strongest teams at his disposal. In last year’s Tour of Flanders, he proved that he is a great rider for the cobbles and there is a solid chance that he will be part of the front group. Furthermore, the Pole is a fast sprinter which makes him an obvious winner candidate.

 

Daniel Oss missed the spring classics due to a knee injury and now he wants to make amends. He seems to be riding extremely well at the moment and he is an excellent rider on the cobbles. His main goal is to protect van Garderen and Van Avermaet but if he is there in the finale, he is an outside bet.

 

No one really knows what Marcel Kittel can do on the cobbles as the big German has never done Paris-Roubaix. However, he has become a lot stronger over the last few years and he definitely has the physical attributes to shine in this kind of race. We doubt that he will be strong enough to be there at the end but if he creates a surprise, he is definitely the fastest rider.

 

The same can be said for André Greipel who is pretty strong on the cobbles. The German has done lots of classics and he is part of one of the strongest teams. He may not have had a lot of success yet but actually his condition seems to be pretty good. If he is there at the end, he will be hard to beat.

 

The GC riders also deserve a mention. As said, this will be more about the teams than the favourites themselves as it will all be about positioning. We have already pointed to Kwiatkowski as a potential winner and Bauke Mollema and Jurgen Van Den Broeck could gain time as well. With Geraint Thomas and Bernhard Eisel at his side, Chris Froome couldn’t have wished for better assistance while Alberto Contador can count on Daniele Bennati and Matteo Tosatto who both know how to handle these races.

 

Vincenzo Nibali and Alejandro Valverde both have the technical skills to do well but none of them have strong teams for this kind of racing. To avoid time losses, they will have to rely on themselves and this could end up being costly. For riders like Thibaut Pinot, Pierre Rolland and Chris Horner, the day could end up being a very costly affair.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff

Outsiders: Fabian Cancellara, Greg Van Avermaet, Sep Vanmarcke

Jokers: Arnaud Demare, Matteo Trentin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Daniel Oss, André Greipel, Marcel Kittel, Jürgen Roelandts