After today’s big carnage, the peloton will be pleased to have an easier stage as they continue the race by heading to Reims that is known for its many sprint finishes. Even though another bunch kick is on the cards, they need to stay attentive as strong winds will make a for a nervous day in the saddle.

 

The course

After the unusual battle for the GC riders in the previous stage, there are two more days of survival for the GC riders before the climbing actions kicks off in earnest. The riders face a long journey from the Northern part of France to the Vosges that will host the next chapter in the battle for the overall win and it is divided into two stages that are expected to suit the sprinters.

 

The first of them brings the riders over 194km in a southeasterly direction from Arras to Reims in one of the flattest parts of France and there is very little elevation gain in what should be a pretty straightforward day in the saddle. The riders will be challenged by two categorized climbs, Cote de Couchy-le-Chateau-Auffrique (category 4, 900m, 6.2%) and Cote de Roucy (category 4, 1.5km, 6.2%), and the fact that they count for the mountains classification says a lot about the flat terrain on offer. The latter comes 37km from the finish and from there the roads are almost completely flat. The intermediate sprint comes at the 119km mark and is located on a long straight road, with the final kilometre being slightly uphill.

 

In the finale, the riders will go straight through no less than 6 roundabouts between the 6km and 2km to go marks. A right-hand turn leads to a left-hand turn in a roundabout 1100m from the line and from there, it’s a long, straight, completely flat, 8m wide road to the finish.

 

Reims last hosted a stage in 2010 and back then it was power sprinter Alessandro Petacchi who beat Julian Dean and Edvald Boasson Hagen to take his second stage win on his way to the overall win in the points competition. In 2002, Robbie McEwen beat Erik Zabel in another bunch sprint to show that the fast finishers usually rule in Reims.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the rain created carnage as the slippery roads made riders crash all over the place and so the riders will be pleased to learn that things are set to improve. It is likely to be raining when the riders leave Arras but shortly after the start, the weather gods are forecasted to show some mercy. Towards the end of the stage, the sun may even make a short appearance. The temperature at the start is expected to be 17 degrees while it should grow a bit throughout the day, reaching 19 degrees by the time the riders roll into Reims.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind in the first part before turning into a direct tailwind after the feed zone. In the finale, it will again be a cross-tailwind and that will also be the case on the long, flat finishing straight.

 

The favourites

For many riders, today’s stage was all about survival and for the GC riders tomorrow’s stage will be another one to get through unscathed. All is set for a big bunch sprint in Reims which is usually the scene for battles between the fast finishers and so the stage is a lot less dangerous than today’s carnage.

 

Nonetheless, the GC riders will be a bit nervous at the start. In the first part, there will be a cross-tailwind which is the most dangerous wind direction. This means that they will all be attentive and stay near the front and there won’t be much time to relax. However, the wind is not expected to be very strong and with a tailwind in the second half of the stage, it would be a surprise if the peloton splits up.

 

As said, Reims is usually the scene of bunch sprint and the sprinters can’t afford to let this opportunity slip away. With stage 7 having some small climbs in the finale, this could be the final chance for the pure sprinters for a long time and several teams will go into the stage with their eyes set on a big battle between the fast finishers.

 

Everybody knows this and so we should be in for a pretty straightforward scenario. There won’t be a big battle to join the early breakaway as everybody knows that it is already doomed. Expect Bretagne, Cofidis and NetApp-Endura to put a rider in the break but we could also see some of the KOM contenders go on the attack. If his rivals are not there, Cyril Lemoine will probably save energy for later but if Blel Kadri or Jens Voigt join the break, he will do his utmost to be there as well as they can both potentially take the mountains jersey off the shoulders.

 

Astana will do the early pace-setting but very soon they will be replaced by Giant-Shimano and Lotto-Belisol. The Kazakh team was keen to keep the jersey until the cobbled stage due to the importance of the car position but now they may no longer be that interested in defending their position. The sprint teams cannot expect to get too much help from Nibali’s team.

 

Lotto-Belisol have lost Greg Henderson and so may be keen to save a bit more energy for the finale. On the other hand, they still fully believe in André Greipel and so they will definitely do their share of the work. However, Giant-Shimano can expect to have to dig a bit deeper than they have done the last few days as Kittel’s dominance mean that they cannot expect the same kind of help as they have got so far.

 

We can expect Lars Bak, Bart De Clercq, Dries Devenyns and Cheng Ji do the early work and the break probably won’t get too much of an advantage. A tailwind is always dangerous for the sprint teams and they know that they can’t allow the escapees too much leeway. Meanwhile, the windy conditions will make the GC riders nervous and their teams will stay attentive throughout the stage. In the finale, we can expect them to take control, giving the sprint teams a chance to save some energy for their lead-outs.

 

It is all set to end in a big bunch sprint and after three stage wins, it is hard to look beyond Marcel Kittel as the major favourite. If the big German was asked to design his optimal finale, he would probably come really close to the one that’s on offer tomorrow. A very long finishing straight with a cross-tailwind will make for incredible speeds which suits a power sprinter like Kittel down to the ground.

 

Furthermore, Team Giant-Shimano have proved to be in a class of their own when it comes to lead-outs and with Henderson now out of the game, Lotto-Belisol will be on their back foot. This means that the Dutch team is even more likely to dominate the finale and there is a big chance that Kittel will be delivered on the front.

 

The team has been set back by John Degenkolb’s injury which means that the German is unlikely to play any role in the lead-out but the combination De Kort-Veelers-Kittel is still a formidable one. Furthermore, the very wide finishing straight means that it is easier to find an opening even if you are not in the perfect position and so Kittel should have plenty of opportunities even if his lead-out fails. It may have been a close sprint two days ago but there is no doubt that Kittel is the fastest rider. This sprint suits him down to the ground and there is a big chance that he will take win number four.

 

Until the sprint in Lille, Arnaud Demare had had a very bad Tour de France but that day the Frenchman proved his class. Having been poorly positioned, he did the fastest sprint of everybody to come very fast from behind to take third. If the finish line had been just 50m further down the road, he would probably have won the stage.

 

While the sprint proved how fast Demare is, it also underlined his main weakness. As it has so often been the case, he was poorly positioned and this ended up costing him the win. There is a big chance that tomorrow will be a similar affair and he may be out of the running even before the sprint has started. Furthermore, he crashed twice in today’s stage which may impact his chances. At the moment, however, he seems to be the only rider who has the speed to potentially beat Kittel and so he is the German’s most dangerous rival.

 

Until now, nothing has gone according to plan for André Greipel. The German has never been great at positioning himself but has usually been able to rely on the strongest train of the peloton. This year, however, Lotto-Belisol have not been firing on all cylinders and the loss of Greg Henderson means that it will be even harder for them to bring Greipel into a good position.

 

On the other hand, the German proved that he is sprinting well when he came from far back to take sixth in yesterday’s sprint. There is no doubt that he is one of the fastest riders in the bunch and he still has a strong team to support him. If Marcel Sieberg and Jurgen Roelandts manage to drop Greipel off on the front, the German may finally take a win.

 

In the last two sprint stages, Omega Pharma-Quick Step have proved that Mark Cavendish would have had a really strong team at his side. On both days, they played a prominent role in the finale and Mark Renshaw got into a great position. The Australian has not been fast enough to finish it off but if Omega Pharma-Quick Step continues their great riding and manages to deliver Renshaw on the front, tomorrow could be his day.

 

The sprint suits Bryan Coquard pretty well as the Europcar rider is one of the fastest riders in the peloton and in this race he seems to have overcome his poor positioning which has so often caused him to finish outside the top 10. In this race, he has really put his great top speed on show and if Kevin Reza can drop his sprinter off in a good position, the young Frenchman will be a rider to watch.

 

Alexander Kristoff got very close to a stage victory in stage 4 when Alexander Porsev gave him the perfect lead-out and the Norwegian proved how strong he is by doing a great sprint. Unfortunately, he went down in today’s stage and even though he has not suffered any major injuries, it may have an impact on his sprinting. However, this power sprint suits him a lot less than yesterday’s sprint and Katusha have to again do things perfectly if Kristoff is to win the stage.

 

This power sprint doesn’t suit Peter Sagan at all and there is no doubt that the Slovakian will go into the stage with his eyes more on the green jersey than the stage victory. Hence, he will probably use his positioning skills to get onto Kittel’s wheel. He knows that he won’t win from that position but the German is likely to drag him to a top 3 result. That is good enough for Sagan who will be more focused on some of the hillier stages.

 

Finally, we will select out joker. Heinrich Haussler may not have had a lot sprinting success over the last few years but these days he actually seems to be sprinting really well. In stage 4, he was boxed in but in stage 3 he proved that he is really fast at the moment. He has Roger Kluge to support him in the finale and with a wide finishing straight, there is a bigger chance that he will find an opening. He went down twice in today’s stage but seems to be unhurt. He is unlikely to win the stage but a top 5 finish is within his reach.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Arnaud Demare, André Greipel

Outsiders: Mark Renshaw, Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff, Peter Sagan

Joker: Heinrich Haussler