Finally, the GC riders have finished the nervous and dangerous first week of the Tour de France and another race will start tomorrow when the race hits its first real climbs. The Vosges may not offer the same mighty mountains as the Alps and the Pyrenees but the terrain is definitely hard enough to give the first indication of the hierarchy among the best riders in the race. First up is a short, steep finishing climb that suits the really explosive riders.

 

The course

Finally the waiting time is over for the climbers who can look forward to three consecutive days in the Vosges. Even though they do not offer major mountains, the first climbs of the race usually provide a pretty good idea about who’s up for the challenge of winning the race overall and we should get the first real indication already in stage 8.

 

The stage is pretty short as it brings the riders over 161km from Tomblaine to Gerardmer in the heart of the Vosges. The first part brings the long journey to the mountains to a close and so the first 132.5km are almost completely flat as the riders travel in first an easterly and then a southerly direction without going into the mountains. The highlight comes at the 100km mark when the riders contest the intermediate srint which is pretty straightforward but slightly uphill in the final kilometres.

 

The riders turn left to head into the Vosges and the hostilities start in Vagney at the 132.5km mark. The final 28.5km contain no flat at all and offer three testing climbs. The first one is the Cote de la Croix des Moinats (category 2, 7.6km, 6.2%) which is a pretty regular affair that becomes easier near the top. A descent leads to the Col de Grosse Pierre (category 2, 3km, 7.5%) whose average gradient is deceptive as the first kilometre is very easy while the second one is very tough. It has an average gradient of 11.3% and inside the final kilometre there is a 16% section before it flattens out for the final 500m.

 

At the top, there are 11km to the finish and they mostly consist of a long descent to Gerardmer. It’s a non-technical affair and ends 2km from the finish. Instead of finishing in the city centre, the riders turn right to go up the category 3 climb to the finish at La Mauselaine, following an almost completely straight road. It’s 1.8km long and has a brutal average gradient of 10.3%. The first kilometre has an average of 9.9% while the final 800m include a 16% section and averages 10.8%, with the final 300m being slightly easier. The road is pretty narrow and bends gradually to the left and ends with a 140m finishing straight.

 

Gerardmer last hosted a stage in 2005 when Pieter Weening beat Andreas Klöden in a very famous photo finish, one of the closest sprints ever in a professional bike race. 27 seconds later the race favourites reached the finish after a dramatic day that had seen Lance Armstrong become isolated on the final climb, the Col de la Schlucht. Back then, the stage finished in the city and didn’t include the climb to La Mauselaine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders got a brief respite from the rainy conditions and even had a glimpse of the sun in the finale. Tomorrow, however, may be another wet affair as showers are again forecasted in the afternoon.

 

It will be a very misty morning, with light raining falling most of the time, but by the time the riders take off, it should be dry. The conditions will be pretty mixed as the riders could be hit by a few showers but may also get the chance to ride parts of the stage in sunshine. The temperature at the finish in Gerardmer will reach a maximum of just 15 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will first have a crosswind before turning into a tailwind. Around the intermediate sprint, the riders will again turn into a crosswind while it will be a cross-headwind on the penultimate climb and a headwind on the descent. There will be a tail- and a crosswind on the final climb.

 

The favourites

For the GC riders, the first week was all about survival and now they have finally reached the terrain where they aim to make a difference. Tomorrow’s stage is a small appetizer and even though it won’t produce massive time gaps, it will offer some fireworks and will be important as it offers a chance to deal the rivals a psychological blow.

 

However, it is important not to put too much emphasis on the results of tomorrow’s stage. The final climb is a short, explosive affair which suits the punchy guys much more than the real climbers. Things may be turned around by the time we hit the real climbs and so the hierarchy won’t be established in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Furthermore, the final climb is very short and even though it will definitely open some time gaps, it will be counted in seconds and not in minutes. The stage is important from a psychological point of view more than for the difference it will make and we will be a lot wiser when the riders have done their first real test on Monday.

 

Nonetheless, it is the first summit finish of the race and this will make it a pretty nervous affair. Traditionally the first uphill finale is decided by the race favourites but tomorrow there is a pretty big chance that a breakaway will make it.

 

The stage is short and the first part very easy so it is definitely a manageable task to bring it back together for the race favourites to decide the win. However, it is not immediately obvious who’s going to do so. Astana know that this is not a stage for Vincenzo Nibali and they will even be keen to give away the jersey. The stage doesn’t suit Alberto Contador perfectly and he will probably save his Tinkoff-Saxo team for later in the race.

 

On paper, the stage is a perfect fit for Alejandro Valverde but the Movistar captain has made it clear that he is only focused on the podium and that stage wins have little value for him. To finish in the top 3, he needs to keep his team fresh and so he is unlikely to ask them to do any work. The stage could also be a good one for Michal Kwiatkowski but as he is not one of the big guns and the team won a stage today, it would be a bit of a surprise if they contribute to the chase.

 

Unless Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo combine forces to control the race, we expect the break to stay away and so there is a 50-50 chance that this will be a day for a break. Everybody knows this and so we can expect a very fast start to the stage. It will probably take quite a bit of time before the break finally takes off.

 

As the first part of the stage is flat, it is a lottery to predict who will make it into the group. If there had been an early climb, the strongest riders would have a better chance of making it but now luck plays a much bigger role. On the other hand, only a select few riders have a chance to finish it off in this kind of finale and there is a big chance that the break will contains lots of riders who stands no chance of winning the stage.

 

If Tinkoff-Saxo and Movistar don’t start to chase, Astana will probably set a steady pace for most of the day but the fight for position will be intense by the time, the riders approach the first climb. We expect Tinkoff-Saxo and Sky to up the pace on the slopes in a quest to make the race as hard as possible. Contador and Richie Porte are very explosive riders and they need the race to be one of attrition more than one suited to the puncheurs.

 

We may see some attacks from riders who are not in the GC battle but as the pace will be fierce, it will be hard to escape. With a headwind down to Gerardmer, the GC riders will save all their energy for the final climb as it will be virtually impossible to make an earlier move even though the penultimate climb is pretty steep. The only rider who could potentially change the script is Pierre Rolland who is never afraid of attacking from afar.

 

As said, it is 50-50 whether the break will make it but as the flat start makes it hard to predict the early escapees, our stage winner pick is one of the favourites. Alejandro Valverde claims to be in the form of his life and this stage suits him down to the ground.

 

Valverde has had a quiet start to the race and sustained some small muscle injuries when he crashed in the cobbles stage. However, he should not be too badly affected and he will definitely try to make his move in this stage.

 

It is hard to gauge how well Valverde has been climbing so far. He has always been up there but has not played with the muscles yet. That may be a deliberate choice though and according to himself, he is at 100%.

 

Earlier this year Valverde won Fleche Wallonne and the sprint up Mur de Huy is very similar to the one he faces tomorrow. In the Vuelta, Valverde has excelled in such finales – most recently when he finished 2nd in Valdepenas de Jaen last autumn – and he has the right explosiveness to excel in such a finale. If his rivals are unable to drop him before they pass the 100m to go sign, it is very hard to imagine that anyone will be able to beat Valverde and so he is our stage winner pick.

 

Alberto Contador may have played down his chances in this stage but the Spaniard has a pretty good chance. He may not be very explosive but with Froome out of the race, he should be in a class of his own in the mountains. He has proved so in all races he has done so far and we expect him to blow the race to pieces when we hit the real climbs.

 

Tomorrow’s final climb is almost 2km long and pretty steep and so it will not be all about explosiveness. If he is as strong as he is rumoured to be, Contador should be able to use this to his advantage and he will definitely try to attack his rivals before it comes down to a sprint finish. We wouldn’t be surprise if he accomplishes his mission and rides away to take a solo victory.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is likely to suffer in the high mountains but this kind of finish suits him down to the ground. Earlier this year he was 3rd in Fleche Wallonne and it is definitely no coincidence that he finished in the top 5 in all the Ardennes classics.

 

Going into the race, his condition was a bit uncertain but he claims to be feeling really, really good. He is very fast and if it comes down to a sprint among the favourites, only Valverde will be able to beat him. The final climb may be a bit too tough for him but he definitely has a chance.

 

The final climb doesn’t suit Vincenzo Nibali very well but the Italian seems to be riding very well. In the past, he has done really well in the Ardennes classics and he definitely knows how to handle such ascents. Of course he will have no chance in a sprint finish against Valverde but if he manages to follow Contador’s attacks, he has a chance. If the pair arrives together at the finish, Contador would be the favourite but no one can rule out a win for Nibali.

 

The same can be said for Richie Porte who is definitely one of the best climbers in this race. The Australian may have had a tough start to the season but now he seems to be back at the level that saw him explode the field 12 months ago. A short explosive climb doesn’t suit him too well but if can keep up with Contador and leave the likes of Valverde and Kwiatkowski behind, he may have a chance.

 

If a break makes it, Michael Albasini is an obvious candidate. In stages 2 and 7, the Swiss proved that he has hit peak condition for the Tour de France and he is a master in picking the right breakaway. He is strong in the flats and will have a good chance of joining the right group. He has finished 2nd in Fleche Wallonne and so he will be hard to beat if he makes the breakaway.

 

Simon Spilak is another great breakaway candidate. The Slovenian has been hiding in the rear end of the bunch, waiting for the mountains where he hopes to win a stage. Tomorrow is his first chance and even though he is not very explosive, he is one of the best climbers in the peloton. If he makes it into the group, he is likely to ride away from his companions in the finale.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Greg Van Avermaet seems to be riding excellently well and the final two climbs are not too long for him. Of course he will have no chance against the race favourites but if he makes it into the break, he will be an obvious favourite in this kind of finish. As a classics specialist, he is very strong in the flats, making it more likely that he makes it into the right break.

 

The same can be said for Tony Gallopin. The Lotto Belisol rider is riding excellently well and the finale suits him. He may be asked to stay at Jurgen Van Den Broeck’s side but if he is given the green light to attack, he is a great winner candidate. He is within shouting distance of the yellow jersey but Astana are probably keen to give it away and it will not be too much of a disadvantage.

 

Bauke Mollema is another Ardennes specialist who is very fast in an uphill sprint and this finale suits him really well. We have not been too impressed by his performances so far and we would be surprised if he manages to keep up with the likes of Contador and Valverde. If he is there in the end, however, he definitely has a chance.

 

On paper, the final climb should be too tough for Peter Sagan but you can never rule out the Slovakian in this kind of finale. Last year he tried his hand in Fleche Wallonne and looking like a winning candidate until he blew up in the finale. The inclusion of a long climb will make things harder for Sagan but he may give it a try. We expect it to get too hard for him but history has proved that he has a chance when you least expect it.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Alberto Contador, Michal Kwiatkowski

Outsiders: Vincenzo Nibali, Richie Porte, Michael Albasini, Simon Spilak

Jokers: Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Bauke Mollema, Brice Feillu, Peter Sagan