The favourites tested each other in today’s first mountain stage but tomorrow they are likely to keep their powder dry for Monday’s big battle. Even though stage 10 offers a lot more climbing than today’s stage, the long flat stretch to the finish in Mulhouse means that the attackers are licking their lips in anticipation of what should be a great chance to grab a stage victory.

 

The course

After the first climbing battle between the GC riders, the race continues with a classic stage that is typical for the Vosges. It’s up or down almost all day in stage 9 and the stage contains the first longer climbs even though none of them are really big mountains. The stage includes climbs like Col de la Schlucht and Grand Ballon that are some of the most well-known ascents in this small mountain range.

 

The stage brings the riders over 170km from Gerardmer to Mulhouse, two of the major cities in the area, and has a very tough beginning. Right from the start of the stage, the riders go up the category 2 Col de la Schlucht (8.6km, 4.5%), albeit from the other side than they did in 2005 when Lance Armstrong was famously isolated on its slopes. A plateau and a long descent leads to the bottom of Col du Wettstein (category 3, 7.7km, 4.1%) which is followed by another long descent.

 

The Cote des Cinq Chateaux (category 3, 4.5km, 6.1%) and Cote de Gueberschwihr (category 2, 4.1km, 7.9% now follow in quick succession before the riders contest a slightly uphill intermediate sprint and take on the major challenge of the day, Le Markstein (10.8km, 5.4%) which is the first category 1 climb of the race. A very short descent brings the riders to the final small 1.4 section that brings them to the top of the famous Grand Ballon whose average gradient of 8.6% has put it in the third category.

 

From the top 43km still remain and now the hostilities are over. The long descent is only interrupted by a very small hill and the final 21km consist of a flat run to the finish in Mulhouse. The finale is not too technical as the riders go through 4 roundabouts inside the final 6km and take a sharp left-hand turn just after the 2km mark. Then the road bends gradually to the right, with the final slight curve leading onto the 500m flat finishing straight.

 

The Tour de France last visited Mulhouse in 2005 when a very similar stage was won from a long-distance breakaway by Michael Rasmussen while Jens Voigt rode himself into yellow. Back then, it was the famous Ballon d’Alsace that was the final climb before a flat run to Mulhouse.

 

 

 

 

The weather

For the umpteenth time, today’s stage was heavily marked by rain and cold that even caused a dramatic crash in the finale. The riders will be frustrated to learn that bad weather is again forecasted for their second day in the Vosges.

 

It will be a very cloudy day and the riders are likely to be hit by showers in the mountains. As they get closer to the finish, however, things should improve and they are likely to finish the stage in dry conditions. The temperature will be around 19 degrees in the valleys and 15 degrees on the top of the many climbs.

 

There with will southwesterly winds with gusts of up to 45kph in the finale. That means that the riders will first have a cross-tailwind before turning into a headwind on the Gueberschwihr and Markstein climbs. Having crested the summit of the latter, the riders will turn into a crosswind that they will face until they get a tailwind for the final 3km.

 

The favourites

As we had already predicted yesterday, the breakaway had a decent chance of staying away in today’s stage and a very strong Blel Kadri finished it off in the most beautiful way. If there was a chance that the break would be caught in stage 8, however, it is very hard to imagine that the early break won’t make it tomorrow. Stage 9 has breakaway written all over it and the attackers are all readying themselves for one of their best chances of the entire race.

 

First of all, the stage is very tough and has a very hard start which means that some very strong riders are likely to escape after a fast start. In this terrain, it requires a really strong team to keep things under control and the best squads have no incentive for doing so. With a flat finish, the GC riders have little chance to make a difference as there is way too much time to get back on after having been dropped but the stage is too hard for the sprinters.

 

On paper, it could be a good stage for Peter Sagan who should be able to get over these climbs which are not too long or too steep. However, Cannondale are not strong enough to control this kind of stage and they are unlikely to even give it a try. If Sagan wants to win this stage, he has to go on the attack. He already tried to do so in today’s stage and he is likely to try again tomorrow.

 

Only two factors can prevent the break from staying away. Astana would be happy to give the jersey away but of course they cannot allow a strong rider to get too much of an advantage. If a potential GC threat makes it into the race, the Kazakh team has to keep things under control and if the break is within shouting distance in the finale, Cannondale may try to bring it back after the final climb.

 

Another threat to the breakaway are the teams that miss the move. Most sports directors go into this stage with the plan at attack and if they fail to catch the right break, they may ask their riders to bring it back together. Tomorrow, however, this is unlikely to happen. We are pretty early in the race and there are more opportunities coming up later in the race. The teams aren’t desperate yet and so they may just see it as a missed opportunity if a break takes off without one of their riders.

 

In any case, we will be in for a very fast start as almost all teams want to have a rider in the break. As it is uphill straight from the gun, it will be a very hard start and the sprinters will probably be put into difficulty right from the beginning. It will probably take a long time before the break finally takes off and the first part of the stage could see some of the hardest racing yet in this year’s Tour de France.

 

When the break takes off, the race will probably settle into a steady rhythm. Astana is likely to set a steady pace for the rest of the day and may decide to give the jersey away. If the break contains a rider that could be a threat in the longer term, they will have to ride a bit faster but the second half of the stage should be pretty easy for the GC riders.

 

Up ahead, the escapees are likely to fight it out for the stage victory and so we have to search for attackers to find the favourites. With a very hard start, only good climbers will make it into the group. The climbs are not very steep though and so the stage will not necessarily be won by a pure climber. In fact, the terrain may be more suited to the classics riders that excel in this kind of terrain.

 

Furthermore, the finale is flat and so a decent sprint or great rouleur skills are definitely no disadvantages. It will be hard to go clear on Le Markstein and ride solo all the way to the finish and so a small group is likely to battle it out on the flat run-in to Mulhouse.

 

With the stage set to be won by an escapee, it is hard not to select the king of breakaways as one of the major favourites. Michael Albasini has won stages in almost all the WorldTour stage races and almost all of them have been based on his aggressive mindset. Surprisingly, the Swiss is yet to win a stage in the Tour, after he narrowly missed out in Lyon 12 months ago.

 

This year Albasini seems to be riding excellently well. In stage 2, he was one of the strongest riders on the brutally steep Jenkin Road and mixed it up with the GC riders on a very tough day. Yesterday he was instrumental in setting up Simon Gerrans for the sprint and in the Tour de Suisse and the Swiss championships, he also proved his great condition.

 

This stage suits Albasini down to the ground. The climbing is hard but not overly tough which is great for a classics rider. Furthermore, he is excellent at picking the right move and always knows how to gauge his effort when he joins the right move. Finally, he has a very fast sprint and so will be hard to beat if a small group arrives at the finish Mulhouse.

 

Today Albasini finished in the gruppetto which clearly indicates that he has saved energy for tomorrow’s stage. Expect to see the Swiss on the attack right from the beginning and we wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes it off by taking his first Tour stage victory.

 

Tony Gallopin is another rider who is riding excellently at the moment. Last year he won the Clasica San Sebastian whose terrain is not too dissimilar to tomorrow’s and this year he seems to be climbing better than ever. In the Dauphiné he mixed it up with the best even on the hardest climbs and in stage 2 he looked comfortable when he rode alongside the GC riders.

 

Gallopin has many of the same skills as Albasini. He is great in the medium mountains and he knows how to time his attacks. Furthermore, he is very fast in a sprint which makes him a danger man if he is still in contention on the flat run-in to Mulhouse.

 

Greg Van Avermaet is getting stronger and stronger and this year he is definitely better than he has ever been. In the classics, he was one of the key protagonists and in this race he has been riding excellently well in both stages 2 and 7.

 

Like Albasini, he took it easy in today’s stage and this indicates that he has big plans for today. The climbs may be a bit longer than he would have preferred but as they are not too steep, he definitely has a chance. Like both Gallopin and Albasini, he is a fast sprinter which makes him an obvious favourite if he is still there in the end.

 

Most riders hate cold and rain but one rider excels in brutal conditions. Simon Spilak is always at his best in the sprint – most notably in the always rainy Tour de Romandie – and this is definitely no coincidence. The Slovenian has done nothing to hide that he likes the rain and while most riders will be discouraged by the poor weather, he will be raring to go.

 

Spilak has been saving his energy for the mountains where he hopes to take a stage win and tomorrow seems to be a good opportunity for him. With a hard stage, he has a great chance of making it into the break and he will definitely be one of the best climbers if he makes the right move. With no fast sprint, Spilak will have to attack from afar and it would be no surprise to see him ride solo already on Le Markstein. In the Dauphiné, he finished off such a move and with his great TT skills, he could do so again tomorrow.

 

Arthur Vichot is another classics specialist who loves this hilly terrain. The former French champion has been riding in support of Thibaut Pinot in the first part of the race but he is clearly in good condition. Today he stayed with the best for a long time until he was set back by a mechanical and this indicates that he should be up there. He excels in this kind of terrain and has a fast sprint in case he arrives at the finish with a small group.

 

Cyril Gautier is another excellent pick. The Europcar rider is one of the most aggressive riders in the peloton and this year he has been riding better than ever. In Paris-Nice he proved how strong he is in this kind of terrain and the early part of this race has proved that he is going well. Gautier is a punchy climber who even has a decent sprint and this makes him a solid candidate for this stage.

 

Jan Bakelants has gone into this race, hoping that he will get his chance in select stages and tomorrow could be his first day. The Belgian is a master in this kind of terrain and is excellent at picking the right breakaway. He is not very fast in a sprint but he knows how to time a late move as he did when he won last year’s stage into Ajaccio.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Until now, Alessandro De Marchi has been riding in the service of Sagan but tomorrow he may get his own chance. When he won the mountains jersey in the Dauphiné, he said that the polka-dots could be an objective for him in the Tour as well. Tomorrow’s stage offers a lot of points and will be a good chance for him. He is no fast sprinter and to win he will have to escape on his own. However, the Italian is a strong rouleur and great climber which makes him a good candidate.

 

Pierre Rolland has done nothing to hide that he targets the mountains jersey and he is never afraid of attacking. With a hard start, he has a good chance of making it into the break and he is a master of long-distance attacks in the mountains. He is close to the yellow jersey but Astana may not be too worried by giving him a stint in yellow. On the other hand, he finished 4th in the Giro and so the big teams may be unwilling to give him too much room to maneuver. Furthermore, the flat finish is not in his favour and this will make it hard for him to win the stage.

 

Brice Feillu has had some difficult seasons but this year he seems to be back at his best level. The hard stage will make it easier for him to get into the right group and there is no doubt that he has marked this stage out. He is also targeting the GC and may use a solid breakaway to take back a few minutes. It will be hard for him to win the stage with this flat finish but he is definitely a good breakaway pick.

 

With Mathias Frank out of the race, IAM will be searching for stage wins. Sebastien Reichenbach is a great climber and he now has the freedom to go on the attack. The Swiss youngster is riding his first grand tour but seems to be going well. The hard start will be in his favour but it will be hard for him to finish it off in a flat finale.

 

This year Tony Martin has been climbing better than ever. He may be asked to stay with Michal Kwiatkowski but if he given carte blanche to attack, this stage could suit him. The terrain should not be too tough for him and the flat run-in will suit him. If he gets a small gap in the finale, he will be impossible to reel in.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michael Albasini

Other winner candidates: Tony Gallopin, Greg Van Avermaet

Outsiders: Simon Spilak, Arthur Vichot, Cyril Gautier, Jan Bakelants, Tom Dumoulin

Jokers: Alessandro De Marchi, Pierre Rolland, Brice Feillu, Sebastien Reichenbach, Tony Martin, Peter Sagan