Usually the teams classification plays a minor role in stage races but like in most other aspects, the Tour de France is also different in this respect. The title as the best team in the world's biggest race is a huge honour and many teams keep a firm eye on the classification throughout the race. While it is never the only pre-race target, no team will shy away from the possibility of standing on the podium in Paris with the entire team.

The teams classification is calculated by adding the times of the three best riders of each team in each of the 21 stages. While the mountain stages and time trials play an almost equal role in the individual classification, the climbs and team tactics usually decide the teams classification with the time trials only playing a minor role. The potential time differences between the three best riders are much larger in a tough mountain stage than they are in a time trial and so the teams with a realistic chance of taking the teams classification win are those with at least three strong climbers in their line-up.

Strength in numbers is much more important than an outstanding individual which is reflected in the winner's list. Radioshack won in both 2010 and 2012 and only had Chris Horner and Haimar Zubeldia in 9th and 5th as their best riders on GC. Garmin was crowned winner in 2011 despite Tom Danielson being the team's best GC rider in 8th. The most recent team to win both the GC and the teams classification was the excessively strong Astana team in 2009 which lined up Alberto Contador, Lance Armstrong, Andreas Klöden, Levi Leipheimer and Haimar Zubeldia in what was by far the strongest Tour team in recent years. Last year Tinkoff-Saxo took the title after having had both Alberto Contador and Roman Kreuziger in the top 5.

The other crucial factors are team tactics and aggressiveness. At some point during a grand tour, a breakaway is likely to stay clear all the way to the finish with a huge gap on the peloton. If a team misses out on such an opportunity, it is very unlikely to step onto the podium in Paris. Hence, a team with a sole focus on the GC has little chance of winning the teams classification as it is unlikely to allow domestiques to chase success in breakaways. This also explains while Sky has not been in contention for the win in 2012 and 2013 when they had really strong teams and last year Tinkoff-Saxo would probably not have been in the running for the title if Contador had been in contention for the overall win as originally planned.

This year’s competition shapes up to be pretty exciting. Sky, Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana have some formidable teams that are all loaded with grand tour contenders. However, all three are going to France to win the race overall and will have no initial focus on the teams classification. Teams like Lampre-Merida, Ag2r, Movistar, BMC, NetApp, Trek and Belkin all have several strong climbers and depending on their GC prospects in the second half of the race, they may be more active in the breakaways.

While Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo will be fully focused on the GC, there may be a bit more room at Astana to go on the attack. Vincenzo Nibali knows that he is unlikely to beat Froome and Contador in a direct battle and he has done nothing to hide that he will try to win the race by destroying Sky’s mathematical approach to the race. That involves a lot of attacking, not only by the race leader himself but also by his many super domestiques that can be used to put Sky under pressure.

Furthermore, there is a big chance that Nibali will be out of the running for the overall victory pretty early as we expect Contador and Froome to be in a class of their own. His team won’t be required to control the race like Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo and may be keen to take a stage win in addition to a potential podium spot for their captain. Last year Movistar proved how you can both ride for the podium and chase stage wins in the mountains and as a consequence they were up there in the teams classification. If it hadn’t been for their decision to sacrifice the team in a quest to save Valverde on the windy day to Saint-Armand-Montrond, they would probably have been on the podium in Paris as the best team.

Astana has a formidable roster of climbers with no less than four riders that all finished in the top 11 of a grand tour in 2013. Nibali, Michele Scarponi, Jakob Fuglsang and Tanel Kangert form a fantastic block of climbers and they even have a rider in reserve in case one of them has a bad day. This means that they will be one of the strongest teams in the big mountaintop finishes and only Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo have the same kind of firepower at their disposal. It all depends on the level of freedom to go on the attack but as we have indicated above, they are likely to ride a pretty aggressive race which makes them the favourite to take the win.

Lampre-Merida has rarely put too much focus on the Tour de France as they are usually mostly focused on the Giro d’Italia but this year they line up a very strong team for La Grande Boucle. Rui Costa’s desire to focus on the French race has changed things around and due to Chris Horner’s unfortunate crash that forced him to reschedule his calendar, the team will line up a two-pronged GC attack.

Both riders will be focused on the overall standings and in the Tour de Suisse, Costa proved that he is already at high level. It remains to be seen if he can be up there with the best in a grand tour but he is a very solid top 10 contender. In the Tour de Slovenie, Horner showed that he is already back at a decent level and he will only get better as the race goes on.

They will be supported by three great climbers, Rafael Valls, Jose Serpa and Kristijan Durasek, with the former having showing particularly great condition. This gives them lots of cards to play in the mountains and as they are unlikely to be in contention for the overall win, there will probably be room for attacks. With two GC riders and a broad base of climbers, Lampre-Merida will definitely be in contention.

The same can be said for Ag2r that also has two GC contenders. Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud are both riding for the GC and both are better than ever before. While none of them are likely to finish on the podium – not even the top 5 – they are genuine top 10 candidates and are both consistent riders that should be up there in the big mountain stages.

Furthermore, the teams classification is always a goal for the French team and this year they have again stated their intention to target the competition. They always ride a very aggressive race and they have some strong climbers to support their captains and go on the attack in the mountains. Mikael Cherel and Christophe Riblon are really strong in the mountains and Ben Gastauer and Matteo Montaguti are not bad either. Their third rider may not be quite at the level of Lampre-Merida’s but with a focus on the teams classification they could add the Tour win to the victory they took in the Giro.

Tinkoff-Saxo has a formidable roster that contains great climbers like Alberto Contador, Nicolas Roche, Michael Rogers, Rafal Majka and Jesus Hernandez. As said, they will focus solely on the GC and so we don’t expect them to defend their title in the teams classification. Unlike Sky who will ride in the usual mechanical way, however, the team may ride a bit more aggressively in a bid to break what we expect to be Froome’s stranglehold on the race. This could open the door for some attacking and there is a small chance that may join a break. It is unlikely to happen though and so they are only an outside bet for the win.

Last year Movistar had a fantastic team with no less than three GC riders. This year they don’t have the same kind of firepower but as usual they have a pretty strong line-up. The team will mostly be focused on Alejandro Valverde and his podium battle but the team has historically always been riding offensively and as Valverde is unlikely to win the race overall, they are not expect to take the main responsibility. This should open the door for some attacking as the team is also keen to keep its streak of always winning stages in the Tour alive.

Valverde will be backed by Benat Intxausti, Ion Izagirre, Ruben Plaza, John Gadret and Jesus Herrada who are all solid climbers and should make sure that they are up there in the teams classification. Their top level may not be quite up there with the best teams but with several strong climbers, they have a pretty broad base. This could allow them to have more riders in the breaks on the key stages and this makes them a genuine winner candidate.

Belkin is more of an outside bet but the team should not be underestimated. Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam are both riding for the GC and last year they proved that they form a formidable duo. They will be backed by Steven Kruijswijk who is already back in form after his Giro crash and will be expected to get better as the race goes on. Furthermore, they have Stef Clement who is climbing better than ever before.

Bram Tankink is also a decent climber but the rest of the team is made up of heavy classics guys. Furthermore, it is a bit uncertain whether Clement can keep his high level for the entire three weeks and perform consistently in the mountains every day. That makes it a bit hard for them to win the competition but with three grand tour contenders of which two are riding for the GC, they have an outside chance.

CyclingQuotes’ winner pick: Astana

Other winner candidates: Lampre-Merida, Ag2r

Outsiders: Tinkoff-Saxo, Movistar, Belkin