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CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses

Photo: ASO / B. Bade

TOUR DE FRANCE

RACE PROFILE
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NEWS
01.07.2014 @ 14:11 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

The rider who has dominated stage racing for the last two years is set to clash with a reinvigorated multiple grand tour winner in what shapes up to be one of the biggest duels in recent years when the 101st edition of the Tour de France kicks off in Leeds on Saturday. They will be challenged by two riders who both won a three-week race in 2013, a 34-year-old Spaniard who is in desperate search of his first Tour podium, and a host of young, upcoming talents that are knocking on the door for their big breakthrough. ASO has truly assembled a fabulous line-up that will test themselves on a more mixed and diverse route than usual, setting the scene for a great battle in the world’s most important race. CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses.

 

The 2012 and 2013 editions of the Tour de France evolved into pretty one-sided affairs that were completely dominated by a seemingly invincible Sky team. Last year Chris Froome was in a class of his own and already from the very first mountain stage it was clear that only bad luck could prevent the Brit from winning a maiden Tour title.

 

This year the defending champion is back for more but arrives at the start in Leeds on the back of a spring season in which nothing has gone according to plan. Furthermore, he faces much stiffer competition, led by a reinvigorated Alberto Contador who has been the dominant stage race of 2014 and reportedly is better than ever before.

 

All is set for a fascinating duel between what are probably the two best stage racers of their generation and the result is definitely not a foregone conclusion. So far Contador has had the upper hand but health issues have set Froome back and when they were both still at 100% in the Criterium du Dauphiné, Froome was clearly the strongest.

 

However, it is not all about Froome and Contador. Having taken a dominant victory in the 2013 Giro d’Italia, Vincenzo Nibali has set his sights on the only grand tour he hasn’t won, and Alejandro Valverde will continue to chase some luck in his dream race on the back of a fabulous start to the season. World champion Rui Costa will get his first chance to lead a team in a grand tour and Bauke Mollema and Jurgen Van Den Broeck aim to continue their steady progress through the grand tour ranks.

 

Finally, a host of youngsters like Andrew Talansky, Thibaut Pinot, Michal Kwiatkowski, Romain Bardet and Pierre Rolland continue their rise through the professional ranks and they will all be eager to put in a breakthrough performance on the French roads this summer.

 

CyclingQuotes.com has taken an in-depth look at the race's favourites, assigning 5 stars to the race's biggest favourite, 4 to his two biggest rivals, 3 to three other potential winners, 2 to four of the podium contenders and 1 to 5 of the race's minor outsiders. In this article, we take a look at the big 5-star favourite.

 

Chris Froome (*****)

A sports career is usually littered with lows and highs but rarely has an athlete gone through such a turnaround as Chris Froome has during the last few years. Having suffered from bilharzia for a long time, the Kenyan-botn Brit went into the 2011 Vuelta a Espana with lots of uncertainty about his future career and didn’t know if he would be able to continue at the highest level. Less than two years later he had turned himself into the world’s best stage racer, last summer he took his first Tour de France victory and this year he again goes into the biggest race in the world as the obvious favourite. Being an outstanding time triallist and the greatest climber, the Brit masters all disciplines that usually decide a grand tour and has firmly taken over the position that Alberto Contador occupied a few years ago.

 

This year, however, things have been a lot more complicated for the Brit who seemed virtually unebeatable just 12 months ago. In 2013 Froome also went into La Grande Boucle as the big favourite but back then he arrived at the race on an incredible spring season that had made him the dominant stage racer of the first half of the year. With overall victories in the Tour of Oman, Criterium International, Tour de Romandie and Criterium du Dauphiné and a runner-up spot in Tirreno-Adriatico, Froome had done what his teammate Bradley Wiggins did one year earlier: setting himself up for a Tour de France victory by dominating the weeklong stage races.

 

By winning the French grand tour, the British duo continued the recent tradition that has seen the strongest stage racer in the spring step onto the podium in Paris. In the Lance Armstrong era, the best stage racers usually had a single eyed focus on the Tour and Armstrong never shone too much in the early part of the year. That trend was changed by Contador. In 2007, 2009 and 2010, the Spaniard won the Tour on the back of several stage race victories in the early part of the season and when Cadel Evans took the 2011 title he had already won Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour de Romandie earlier in the year.

 

Last year Froome kept that tradition alive but in sport, a year can make an enormous difference. This year he lines up in Leeds on the back of a spring season that has given more room for doubts and speculation than for celebration and victories. In fact it already started last autumn when Froome had made the world championships a big goal but a back injury forced him to pull out early in the race and he later had to cancel his participation in Il Lombardia and the Tour of Beijing.

 

This year he seemed to be back on track when he took a dominant victory in the Tour of Oman, crushing a very classy field on the short, steep Green Mountain, but from there things started to unravel. Going into his first big clash with Alberto Contador at Tirreno-Adriatico, the back problems flared up again and the Brit had to forfeit his participation. When he returned to competition in the Volta a Catalunya to take on Nairo Quintana, Joaquim Rodriguez and Contador in a hugely anticipated battle, it was clear that the health issues had been a major setback. Racing in his usual way, he tried to make his stinging attacks but his key rivals easily responded and when they countered, the Tour champion had no response. Froome ended the race In 6th, his poorest performance in a WorldTour stage race since he finished 123rd in the 2012 Tour de Romandie.

 

Froome’s woes continued later in the sprint when a chest infection forced him out of Liege-Bastogne-Liege but he bounced back to claim a convincing victory in the Tour de Romandie. However, his performances were less dominant than usual. In the queen stage, he had the rare experience of getting caught by Simon Spilak after he had launched what was expected to be the decisive attack. He beat Tony Martin in the final time trial but only did so because of a mistake by the world champion on the final descent.

 

His latest setback came at the Criterium du Dauphiné. Having stamped his authority on the race in the opening time trial and the first summit finish, Froome crashed in the final flat stage of the race and lost it all in the final weekend which had to consecutive summit finishes. Clearly suffering from his injuries, the Brit cracked completely in the dramatic final stage and even finished the race outside the top 10. The crash was a symbolic end to a build-up that has been anything but smooth for the reigning champion.

 

In addition to the injuries and below-par performances, Froome faces much harder competition than he did 12 months ago. For several years, Alberto Contador was in a class of his own when it came to stage racing but for some reason he failed to find back to his former level when he returned from suspension in August 2012. This year, however, the Spanish grand tour star has been reinvigorated and he doesn’t seem to be too far off the level he had in 2009 which was probably his best ever season. It would be hard for Froome to find a more formidable rival for a grand tour than the Spaniard.

 

For Contador, the Dauphiné must have been a big confidence boost as he managed to drop Froome twice in the final two mountain stages of the race. Paradoxically, the performance in the French stage race is what makes it clear that Froome must be the favourite to again step onto the podium in Paris. Not only did Froome take a convincing victory in the opening time trial despite never having excelled in prologues, he was clearly the strongest when he was still at 100%. In the first mountain stage of the race, the Brit certainly didn’t ride conservatively, constantly responding to the attacks, but still had enough left in the tank to launch a searing acceleration in the finale. The final climb, Col du Beal, was pretty easy and drafting played an important role but Contador still had to go to his maximum just to stay on Froome’s wheel. In the end, he tried to pass his British rival but Froome had an extra gear and won the stage despite having been in the wind almost all the way up the climb.

 

That performance proved that Froome’s status as the best climber in the world hasn’t changed and if he can avoid crashes or illness, he could stamp his authority already in the two summit finishes in the Vosges just before the first rest day. With summit finishes in most of the big mountain stages, he has plenty of terrain to make a difference.

 

There is no doubt Froome will go on the attack in the mountains – his nature and riding style almost require him to do so. However, he finds himself in the very comfortable position that he doesn’t need to drop any of his key rivals. Contador may be close to his former level in the time trials but Froome is still clearly the strongest GC rider in the race against the clock. Despite the limited amount of time trialling in this year’s race, the Sky leader can make a massive difference on the penultimate day and it would be a surprise if Contador finishes within a minute of the Sky captain on that very important day. With that ace up his sleeve, he can allow himself to ride conservatively, offering him a clear tactical advantage.

 

When Wiggins won the 2012 edition of the race, the importance of his strong Sky team could not be underestimated. Last year, however, the team delivered a below-par performance where only Richie Porte and Peter Kennaugh lived up to expectations in the mountains and if Froome had not been superior, he could easily have lost the race.

 

This year things didn’t look promising in the first mountain stage of Criterium du Dauphiné and it led to some speculation that Froome would again be hampered by a poor support team. On the penultimate stage, however, the team bounced back with an incredible showing that saw Froome, Porte, Mikel Nieve, David Lopez, Geraint Thomas and Vasil Kiriyenka still be left in a group of less than 50 riders and when only 17 riders were left, Sky still had four riders there. That was a massive demonstration of power and Froome’s rivals were extremely lucky that internal rivalries forced the team to leave Bradley Wiggins at home and that Sergio Henao crashed out of the Tour de Suisse.

 

While he seems to be unbeatable in the mountains and the time trials, Froome has two weaknesses. While his team has lots of climbing power, it’s not very strong on the flats. Last year Ian Stannard played a massive role in the hectic battle for position but both the Brit and Edvald Boasson Hagen are out of the race due to injury. Bernhard Eisel has been brought in as a replacement and the versatile Thomas will be able to provide support in all terrains but there is definitely room to attack Froome on the days when it is least expected.

 

That could also make the stages on the cobbles a complicated affair for Froome. There is no reason to suggest that Froome is not fully at Contador’s level on the rough surface but in this kind of field where a lot of riders with little experience on the cobbles want to be near the front, it will be more about positioning than actual skills in this kind of racing. In the battle for position, there are definitely stronger teams than Sky but Froome may be strong enough to win the fight almost single-handedly.

 

The second main question is Froome’s ability to recover. The Brit has only done four grand tours as a GC contender and in two of them he has faded towards the end. It was less of a surprise in the 2012 Vuelta which he did on the back of a hard Tour-Olympics double but his drop in performance in last year’s Tour is harder to explain. While he was in a class of his own in the first two weeks, Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez seemed to have the upper hand in the Alps and he only narrowly won a time trial where he should have crushed the opposition.

 

Our concerns may be unjust but Froome still has to fully convince us that he can keep his exceptionally high level for the duration of a grand tour and those concerns offer a glimmer of hope for his rivals. Otherwise, it seems that only bad luck can prevent Froome from taking another victory in the world’s biggest race. On the other hand, he has had a lot of that during the last few months and as everybody knows, bad things come in threes…

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