While points jerseys are often seen as something sprinters may pick up along the way without really targeting them, one such jersey is different. The green jersey of the Tour de France is the ultimate achievement of a sprinter - besides the win on the Champs-Elysees - and all sprinters would love to wear it into Paris. At any other stage race, stage wins are always the main objective for the fast men but two riders have made the green jersey their most important aim at the 100th edition of the Tour: Peter Sagan and Mark Cavendish.

On paper, the fight should boil down to a two-horse race between those two and Andre Greipel is the only other rider with a realistic chance of riding into Paris clad in the green jersey. What makes the duel extremely exciting is the fact that it's a battle between two very different riders. No one doubts that Cavendish is the faster of the two but Sagan' fantastic versatility could very well land him a second consecutive green jersey. The Manxman needs to make the most of the numerous flat stages in the race while Sagan will target the hillier stages and use his team to put Cavendish under pressure on the climbs.

Stages 1, 6, 10, 12, 13 and 21 should all end in pure bunch sprints and in those stages, Cavendish will have an edge over Sagan. Cavendish will be one of the favourites to win on each of those occasions while Sagan has no chance to match the likes of Greipel, Kittel and his British rival in a true bunch sprint. However, some of the stages have very technical finishes which could play into the hands of the Slovakian.

Strangely, the presence of Kittel and Greipel could both contribute to Cavendish winning and losing the battle. If Cavendish once again emerges as the fastest sprinter in the race, he will take 45 points for each win in a flat stage. Having Kittel and Greipel in between himself and Sagan will increase his gain over his rival as the difference between 1st and 4th is 19 points while he will only add 10 points to his lead if Sagan finishes second. At the same time, Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni and Matthew Goss are all able to match Sagan in a sprint, thus possibly increasing Cavendish's buffer even further.

On the other hand, Cavendish is not at all guaranteed to win in a head-to-head battle with Kittel and Greipel. When the three sprinting giants went head-to-head at the recent Ster ZLM Toer, Cavendish was 2nd, 3rd and 3rd in their internal battle while Kittel and Greipel were 3rd, 1st, 2nd and 1st, 2nd, 1st, respectively. If Cavendish misses out on most of the stage wins in the flat stages, it will be very hard for him to win the duel.

Stages 2, 5,7 and 14 are all likely to finish in some kind of sprint but the hilly courses will allow Sagan the possibility to get rid of Cavendish. We are guaranteed to see Cannondale ride hard on the climbs as they try to send the pure sprinters out the back. Cavendish has, however, climbed formidably this year and none of those four stages are probably hard enough to leave Cavendish behind. At the same time, Sagan lacks pure climbers that can up the pace sufficiently with Moreno Moser, Alessandro De Marchi and maybe Kristijan Koren the only riders really capable of putting down the hammer on the climbs. Moser showed his strength in the penultimate stage of the Tour de Suisse but on that occasion, the final climb was located much closer to the finish than it is in those four Tour stages.

Stage 3 should be a perfect opportunity for Sagan to pick up 30 points by winning the stage while Cavendish is very unlikely to score any points at the finish. A similar opportunity could present itself in stage 16 but it will be very hard for Cannondale to keep it together on a day that most riders have marked out as one for a breakaway. In general, the battle for the points jersey could very well give attackers very few opportunities as Cavendish needs to chase any opportunity in the flat stages while Sagan has to benefit maximally from all the hilly stages.

The final crucial elements are the intermediate sprints which gained added importance by the 2011 rule changes. Each stage now only has one sprint along the way but the winner will add no less than 20 points to his tally - compared to the 30 at stake at the finish line in a hilly stage - and there will be points to the first 15 riders across the line. That means that there will be points up for grabs for the peloton in most stages and the sprints will add an extra element of tactics to the races.

In most stages, the sprint is located at a point where Cavendish should have a chance to pick up some points and so their presence will mostly benefit the Manxman. Only in stages 9, 18, 19 and 20, Sagan should have a real advantage over his rival. In some of the mountain stages, Sagan could try to join the early breakaway to add some extra points to his tally but Omega Pharma-Quick Step will probably not allow him to get anywhere.

The rider that could spoil the British-Slovakian party is Greipel. The German is in splendid condition at the moment and like Cavendish, he needs to win the jersey in the flat stages. On paper, Greipel is, however, the better climber of those two super sprinters which could allow him to contest some stages that have become too hard for his British rival. An example was last year's stage to Le Cap d'Agdé in which the German took his third stage win while the then-world champion had been left behind on the steep Mont Saint-Clair. On the other hand, Cavendish has a better ability to recover and is usually very hard to beat towards the end of a three-week tour. He would certainly have hoped that Champs-Elysees were not the only sprint opportunity in the third week.

Greipel has the best lead-out train in the world and it is not unlikely that he will take more points than Cavendish in the flat finishes. That will make him a genuine contender for the green jersey. What speaks against Greipel is the fact that he has declared stage wins his primary target. That could see him skip the intermediate sprints and if so, he has no chance of riding into Paris in the green jersey. We will already get the first indication of Greipel's intentions in the first intermediate sprint in tomorrow's flat stage.

Kittel is the only other sprinter with the speed to seriously challenge for the win but the Argos-Shimano rider will be dropped whenever there is a climb close to the finish. That will put him out of contention and we are very likely to see him target the intermediate sprints at all

It is a tough ask to pick a favourite in this duel but the number of flat stages and the number of sprinters who could beat Sagan in those stages play into Cavendish's hands. As Sagan possibly only has two opportunities to contest a sprint without the presence of his British rival, we pick Cavendish as our favourite. However, we are sure to be in for a very close battle which is very likely first to find its winner on the Champs-Elysees.

Favourites:

***Mark Cavendish

**Peter Sagan

*Andre Greipel