The rider who has dominated stage racing for the last two years is set to clash with a reinvigorated multiple grand tour winner in what shapes up to be one of the biggest duels in recent years when the 101st edition of the Tour de France kicks off in Leeds on Saturday. They will be challenged by two riders who both won a three-week race in 2013, a 34-year-old Spaniard who is in desperate search of his first Tour podium, and a host of young, upcoming talents that are knocking on the door for their big breakthrough. ASO has truly assembled a fabulous line-up that will test themselves on a more mixed and diverse route than usual, setting the scene for a great battle in the world’s most important race. CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses.

 

The 2012 and 2013 editions of the Tour de France evolved into pretty one-sided affairs that were completely dominated by a seemingly invincible Sky team. Last year Chris Froome was in a class of his own and already from the very first mountain stage it was clear that only bad luck could prevent the Brit from winning a maiden Tour title.

 

This year the defending champion is back for more but arrives at the start in Leeds on the back of a spring season in which nothing has gone according to plan. Furthermore, he faces much stiffer competition, led by a reinvigorated Alberto Contador who has been the dominant stage race of 2014 and reportedly is better than ever before.

 

All is set for a fascinating duel between what are probably the two best stage racers of their generation and the result is definitely not a foregone conclusion. So far Contador has had the upper hand but health issues have set Froome back and when they were both still at 100% in the Criterium du Dauphiné, Froome was clearly the strongest.

 

However, it is not all about Froome and Contador. Having taken a dominant victory in the 2013 Giro d’Italia, Vincenzo Nibali has set his sights on the only grand tour he hasn’t won, and Alejandro Valverde will continue to chase some luck in his dream race on the back of a fabulous start to the season. World champion Rui Costa will get his first chance to lead a team in a grand tour and Bauke Mollema and Jurgen Van Den Broeck aim to continue their steady progress through the grand tour ranks.

 

Finally, a host of youngsters like Andrew Talansky, Thibaut Pinot, Michal Kwiatkowski, Romain Bardet and Pierre Rolland continue their rise through the professional ranks and they will all be eager to put in a breakthrough performance on the French roads this summer.

 

CyclingQuotes.com has taken an in-depth look at the race's favourites, assigning 5 stars to the race's biggest favourite, 4 to his two biggest rivals, 3 to three other potential winners, 2 to four of the podium contenders and 1 to 5 of the race's minor outsiders. In this article, we take a look at the 4-star riders that may be seen as the main challengers to the race's biggest favourite.

 

Alberto Contador (****)

Scroll back the time to September 2012 and recall how Alberto Contador found himself in a very difficult situation. Having had a disastrous spring season, the most decorated grand tour rider of the current generation had failed to finish on the podium at the Tour de France and his autumn season ended as a real disaster. Contador had made the World Championships his final big goal of the season but going into the hilly race which on paper should have suited him well, no one even mentioned him as a possible outsider. He finished the race anonymously and one week later he delivered a disastrous performance in Il Lombardia.

 

At the same time, he found himself in a difficult situation with his team. Rumours had started to emerge that then team owner Bjarne Riis was no longer willing to build his team around his star rider and only a long, expensive contract with the Spaniard seemed to prevent the Dane from making a change in team leadership. Things didn’t look any brighter when Oleg Tinkov who had publicly criticized his performances took over the reins two months later.

 

If anyone had suggested such a scenario when Contador crushed the opposition in the 2011 Giro d’Italia, he would have been proclaimed completely ignorant. Nonetheless, the relatively short suspension he served for his famous clenbuterol case apparently has a disastrous effect on his performances. He performed well at his first race, the Eneco Tour, but as soon as the Vuelta hit his preferred terrain in the mountains, it became obvious that Contador was not his usual self.

 

At his pre-suspension level, he would just have ridden away from Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez to put daylight into them at the finish line but this time it did not happen. While he was able to distance his compatriots on a number of occasions, Rodriguez always managed to claw his way back to the Saxo-Tinkoff leader. In the final mountain stage to Bola the Mundo, they even left the usually superior Contador behind, and the multiple grand tour champion had to make use of a bold move in an intermediate stage - completely unsuited to Rodriguez' characteristics - to take a win that appeared to have escaped him at that point.

 

His woes continued for the entire 2013 season and reached a low point when he failed to finish on the podium in the Tour de France, an event he had completely dominated in his heydays. At the end of the year, Contador had only won a single race, a stage in the Tour de San Luis at a time when nobody was even close to their best condition.

 

There was no explanation of his sudden drop in performance level but in sport the difference between success and failure is usually very short. And just as fast as he went from grandiose to mediocre, he has turned everything around and now goes into the 2014 Tour de France as the dominant rider of the spring.

 

Contador made the wise decision to leave behind all experiments and go back to the formula that had worked in the past. During the off-season, he scaled down on his different commitments to focus on his training and diet. He postponed racing debut and again kicked off his season in the Volta ao Algarve as he had done successfully in the past. He focused on select WorldTour stage races in the sprint and forgot the idea of going for glory in the Ardennes. Instead, he dedicated himself completely to the Tour de France as soon as he had rolled across the line as the winner of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco.

 

Already in Algarve, he showed the first signs of his return to his previous level. On the queen stage he beat the in-form Michal Kwiatkowski and world champion Rui Costa and did an excellent time trial on a short, flat, fast course that didn’t suit him at all. The final confirmation came in Tirreno-Adriatico when he won both mountain stages before taking the overall victory but it was the way in which he conquered stage 5 that signaled his definitive return. Having already won the previous suggested, everything suggested that he could win the race overall by launching a stinging attack on the steep Muro di Guardiagrele in the finale but that was not enough for Contador. Instead, he attacked already on the Passo Lanciano, dropped Nairo Quintana and bridged across to the early breakaway before leaving them behind on the final wall. The win was reminiscent of his greatest exploits from his heydays.

 

He went on to finish second behind Joaquim Rodriguez in the Volta a Catalunya after a race where the climbs had not been hard enough to make a difference. More importantly, however, the race allowed him to beat Chris Froome for the first time since the 2012 Vuelta. Having just come back from a back injury, the Brit was clearly not at his best but the impact on Contador’s confidence cannot be overestimated. He ended his spring season on a high by winning the Vuelta al Pais Vasco in dominant fashion, ending the race by doing one of the two best time trials of his post-suspension career.

 

Most importantly, Contador beat Froome when the pair faced off against each other in the Criterium du Dauphiné. He kicked off the race by doing a fabulous opening time trial to take second behind his British rivals and managed to stay on the Sky rider’s wheel in the first mountaintop finish. In the final mountainous weekend, he benefited from Froome’s unfortunate crash to severely distance his key rival and only a poor team performance and a gutsy attack by Andrew Talansky prevented him from winning the race overall. That did nothing to dampen the spirit for Contador though. The Spaniard was overjoyed when he left the race as he had won the battle than counted.

 

Despite his impressive spring season, Contador finds himself in the underdog role at the Tour. He may have beaten Froome at the Dauphiné but there is little doubt that the result was more a reflection of Froome’s crash than the real hierarchy. Not only did Froome take a convincing victory in the opening time trial despite never having excelled in prologues, he was clearly the strongest when he was still at 100%. In the first mountain stage of the race, the Brit certainly didn’t ride conservatively, constantly responding to the attacks, but still had enough left in the tank to launch a searing acceleration in the finale. The final climb, Col du Beal, was pretty easy and drafting played an important role but Contador still had to go to his maximum just to stay on Froome’s wheel. In the end, he tried to pass his British rival but Froome had an extra gear and won the stage despite having been in the wind almost all the way up the climb.

 

That stage proved that Froome is still the best climber in the world and that Contador needs to improve to be able to match his biggest rival. Whether Contador is back at his previous level is hard to say but he is definitely not at Froome’s level yet. That’s a significant handicap as Contador needs to gain time in the mountains to win the race overall.

 

In his pre-suspension career, Contador was an excellent time triallist who famously beat Fabian Cancellara on an almost completely flat course in the 2009 Tour de France. After his comeback, however, he has performed very poorly in the race against the clock and for some reason his drop in performance level has been greatest in this discipline. This year, however, he seems to have found back some of his previous prowess and except for a below-par showing in Tirreno-Adriatico, he has done some excellent TTs all year. His performance in the Criterium du Dauphiné was especially encouraging and proves that he is now able to limit his losses against Froome.

 

Nonetheless, Froome is still superior when it comes to time trialling and it will be no surprise if Contador gets beaten by more than a minute in the penultimate stage. He needs to take back that expected time loss in the mountains and nothing suggests that he will be able to do so.

 

The cobbled stage could be an advantage for Contador. There is no reason to believe that he will be stronger than Froome on the rough surface but in this kind of racing it is mostly about positioning. Last year Tinkoff-Saxo was a lot stronger than Sky on the flats and with riders like Daniele Bennati and Matteo Tosatto to protect him he can count on years of experience. If he can’t make the difference in the mountains, he may have to invent something in the flat stages like he did one year ago on the roads to Saint-Armand-Montrond.

 

His biggest asset, however, may be his excellent recovery. As we have already mentioned in our analysis os Froome, the Brit has shown signs of weakness in the third week of a couple of his grand tours. As opposed to this, Contador rarely shows any sign of fatigue and as most of the hard climbing is gathered in the final week, he may have an ace up his sleeve at the crucial moment.

 

Contador is backed by a formidable team that includes the likes of Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers who both showed excellent condition in the Route du Sud. However, the loss of Roman Kreuziger is a massive blow. With two potential winners of the race, the team had a lot more tactical options. No one honestly believes that Roche or Rogers will win the race and so that card has now been taken away. Rafal Majka has been brought in as replacement but based on the Pole’s statements, there is no reason to expect a great performance from him.

 

In the end, however, Contador is likely to have to beat Froome in a direct battle in the mountains. Given the Brit’s strength, that is a massive task that may prove to be too much even for the reinvigorated Spaniard. However, recent history proves that the Tour de France is always won by the dominant stage race of the spring season and if that is indicative for the outcome of this year’s race, Contador will be on the top step of the podium in Paris. In any case, he should be a lot closer to Froome than he was 12 months ago and unlike last year, there is a realistic chance that Contador will confirm his return to the top by winning the race that he loves the most.

 

Vincenzo Nibali (****)

For several years, the cycling-mad nation of Italy has been longing for genuine Tour de France contender that could realistically challenge for the top step of the podium in Paris. 10 years ago they seemed to have found the perfect candidate but the Operacion Puerto brought an end to Ivan Basso’s hopes of ever winning the biggest race in the world.

 

Hence, Vincenzo Nibali is a godsend for a country that has been struggling for the last couple of years. By winning the 2010 Vuelta a Espana, he showed signs that he could go on to become a serious Tour de France contender but it was his dominant performance in last year’s Giro d’Italia that elevated him from podium candidate to a potential winner of the race. In between his two grand tour victories he may have finished on the podium in the Giro twice and in the Tour once but in neither of those races was he close to the win.

 

That all changed last year when he claimed the Giro in a superior fashion that was reminiscent of the greatest performances in the grand tours. At no point, the Italian seemed to be under pressure and his dominant stage victories in the mountain time trial and on the steep Tre Cime di Lavaredo put him up there with the very best climbers.

 

Already moments after he had stepped down from the podium in Brescia, Nibali made it clear that his intention was to target the Tour de France in 2014. Before that, he set his sights on a Worlds win on home soil and finished second in the Vuelta despite partly using it as preparation of the race in Florence. In the battle for the rainbow jersey, he was arguably the strongest rider but a crash and team tactics meant that he had to settle for fourth.

 

This year it has been all about the Tour for Nibali but his build-up has been far from ideal. In fact, he has had more media attention due to his poor results and internal controversy and so far nothing suggests that he will be at his 2013 Giro level when he lines up in Leeds later this week.

 

Things already started to unravel in the off-season when a lot of commitments took away his focus from his training and then the birth of his daughter was a further distraction that according to himself has had a clear impact on his performance. A crash in the Tour de San Luis didn’t make things any better and after a disappointing first part of the season, he decided to skip the Criterium International, hoping that a high-altitude training camp in Tenerife would allow him to reach his best condition for the Ardennes classics, his big target in the spring.

 

The hilly one-day races ended as a big disappointment as he failed to have an impact on any of them but he showed the first signs of signs in the Tour de Romandie one week later, finishing 5th overall. Nonetheless, he still had the humiliating experience of getting passed by Chris Froome at a time when he launched a stinging attack in the queen stage and a poor performance in the final time trial put a dampener to the praise of his improved TT skills.

 

Since then Nibali has meticulously prepared for the Tour in the same way he set himself up for his Giro triumph and in the Criterium du Dauphiné he did better than earlier in the season, finishing 7th overall. While it was a clear improvement, the French race also underlined the fact that he is still far off the mark when it comes to comparing himself with his key rivals for the Tour, Chris Froome and Alberto Contador.

 

Things were complicated further when La Gazzetta dello Sport claimed that Astana manager Alexandre Vinokourov had sent a letter to his star rider in which he criticized his performances. Later it has emerged that it was a general mail sent to the entire team but it has been an additional distraction that has also added fuel to the discussion about his tainted relationship with his team.

 

However, things are starting to look a bit brighter for Nibali who took his first victory last Saturday when he conquered his first ever elite Italian national championships. The tricolore jersey is a very visible sign that his condition is on the rise and going into the race he claimed that he had finally found the condition he had been looking for all year. Nonetheless, the championship race revealed that he still has some work to do as his repeated attempts to drop Davide Formolo all failed. The Cannondale rider may be a huge talent and one of the future stars but there is still a massive difference between the youngster and competition he will face in the Tour.

 

As he proved in last year’s Giro, Nibali is one of the best climbers in the world when he is at 100% but it is also apparent that he is not at the level of Froome and Contador yet. He doesn’t have the explosiveness that characterizes his two rivals and he will have to claw his way back when Froome has launched one of his searing accelerations. With his coach Paolo Slongo he has done a lot to train his ability to respond to those incredible attacks but he doesn’t have the natural ability to make those changes in rhythm.

 

Compared to his key rivals, Nibali does not only lack the climbing skills, he is also on the back foot when it comes to time trialling. Over the last few years, he, Astana and bike sponsor Specialized have put in a dedicated to improve in the discipline and he has come a long way. Most recently, he did a great time trial in the Dauphiné but it is also apparent that he will lose time to both Contador and Froome on the penultimate day. He needs to take back that time elsewhere and it is not immediately apparent where.

 

As an athlete, he may be more gifted on the cobbles than both Froome and Contador but his team doesn’t have an awful lot of experience in that kind of racing. As it is mostly about positioning, there is a chance that he will be one of the losers when the dust has settled after stage 5. His team is not very strong in the crosswinds either and the flat stages are unlikely to offer him room to take back time.

 

Nibali has two main assets that he has to exploit to the maximum if he wants to win the race. First of all he is an unpredictable rider capable of inventing opportunities where it is least expected. He excels in bad weather and his fabulous descending skills provide him with a chance to put his rivals under pressure. Last year he made use of those characteristics to beat Froome in Tirreno-Adriatico on an epic day in the Apennines at a point where the race seemed to have been completely decided. In last year’s Giro he contributed to Bradley Wiggins’ collapse by attacking on the rainy, lumpy day to Pescara and in the 2012 Tour he attacked Wiggins from afar on a descent. Being up against Froome and Contador, Nibali is unlikely to win the race in the mountains or the time trials but have to make use of his aggressiveness and ingenuity to create a surprise.

 

Furthermore, he is surrounded by a fabulous team that has potential grand tour contenders. Michele Scarponi, Jakob Fuglsang and Tanel Kangert all finished in the top 11 of a three-week race in 2013 and they all seem to be in very good condition for their big objective. While Fuglsang and Kangert did well in the Dauphiné, Scarponi was instrumental in setting up Nibali for his victory last Saturday. Astana won’t be expected to take the main responsibility and if they can keep several riders in contention for the mountain stages, they have a few tactical cards to play.

 

Despite those assets, Nibali faces an uphill battle. He may have won both the Giro and the Vuelta but the Tour is a different beast where he faces the best riders in the world all at the maximum of their capacities. At present, it is hard to imagine that it won’t be a two-horse race between Froome and Contador and most other riders go into the race looking more for the podium than the victory. Having already finished in the top 3, Nibali is the only other rider who goes into the race with his eyes on the top step and he is the only one who has shown the climbing skills that could potentially create a surprise. With a less than smooth build-up, Nibali should probably be content if he grabs the final spot on the podium but if anyone is going to make an upset, it has to be the Astana captain.