The rider who has dominated stage racing for the last two years is set to clash with a reinvigorated multiple grand tour winner in what shapes up to be one of the biggest duels in recent years when the 101st edition of the Tour de France kicks off in Leeds on Saturday. They will be challenged by two riders who both won a three-week race in 2013, a 34-year-old Spaniard who is in desperate search of his first Tour podium, and a host of young, upcoming talents that are knocking on the door for their big breakthrough. ASO has truly assembled a fabulous line-up that will test themselves on a more mixed and diverse route than usual, setting the scene for a great battle in the world’s most important race. CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses.

 

The 2012 and 2013 editions of the Tour de France evolved into pretty one-sided affairs that were completely dominated by a seemingly invincible Sky team. Last year Chris Froome was in a class of his own and already from the very first mountain stage it was clear that only bad luck could prevent the Brit from winning a maiden Tour title.

 

This year the defending champion is back for more but arrives at the start in Leeds on the back of a spring season in which nothing has gone according to plan. Furthermore, he faces much stiffer competition, led by a reinvigorated Alberto Contador who has been the dominant stage race of 2014 and reportedly is better than ever before.

 

All is set for a fascinating duel between what are probably the two best stage racers of their generation and the result is definitely not a foregone conclusion. So far Contador has had the upper hand but health issues have set Froome back and when they were both still at 100% in the Criterium du Dauphiné, Froome was clearly the strongest.

 

However, it is not all about Froome and Contador. Having taken a dominant victory in the 2013 Giro d’Italia, Vincenzo Nibali has set his sights on the only grand tour he hasn’t won, and Alejandro Valverde will continue to chase some luck in his dream race on the back of a fabulous start to the season. World champion Rui Costa will get his first chance to lead a team in a grand tour and Bauke Mollema and Jurgen Van Den Broeck aim to continue their steady progress through the grand tour ranks.

 

Finally, a host of youngsters like Andrew Talansky, Thibaut Pinot, Michal Kwiatkowski, Romain Bardet and Pierre Rolland continue their rise through the professional ranks and they will all be eager to put in a breakthrough performance on the French roads this summer.

 

CyclingQuotes.com has taken an in-depth look at the race's favourites, assigning 5 stars to the race's biggest favourite, 4 to his two biggest rivals, 3 to three other potential winners, 2 to four of the podium contenders and 1 to 5 of the race's minor outsiders. In this article, we take a look at the 2-star riders that should all be solid podium candidates.

 

Jurgen Van Den Broeck (**)

On the list of nations with most Tour de France victories, Belgium is only surpassed by the home nation but while the tiny, cycling-mad nation still has a major impact on the classics, it is no longer a major force in the grand tours. In fact, a Belgian hasn’t finished on the podium in Pairs since Lucien Van Impe was second in 1981 and the country is in desperate search of a rider that can challenge the best in the grand tours.

 

Jurgen Van Den Broeck is the rider that carries the country’s hopes of the shoulders and by finishing in the top 5 twice, the Lotto Belisol captain has proved that he is a very realistic podium contender. He is purely aware of the fact that he is unlikely to ever win a grand tour but a top 3 in the Tour de France is certainly within his reach.

 

Van Den Broeck rode several years without any major results before he suddenly emerged as a grand tour contender in the 2008 Giro d’Italia. Lotto Belisol’s mission has always been to facilitate the development of Belgian talents and so it was no surprise to see the team prefer their upcoming star over Cadel Evans when the Australian had had a disastrous 2009 Tour de France and since then Van Den Broeck has been the undisputed GC captain for the Belgian team.

 

Already in his first year as team leader, he proved his talent as he finished 5th in the 2010 Tour de France and as Alberto Contador has now been stripped of his win, he has since been promoted to 4th. One year later he crashed out of the race but in 2012 he returned to the biggest race in the world and again he finished just off the podium.

 

Since that 4th place, nothing has gone according to plan for Van Den Broeck. Last year he got his season off to a great start but a crash in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and illness in the Criterium du Dauphiné hampered his preparations for the Tour. On the opening stages in Corsica, he seemed to be riding very strongly and a great Lotto team time trial put him in a great position to challenge for the podium. One day later, however, he crashed in the bunch sprint in Marseille and his knee injury proved to be much more severe than originally thought.

 

Van Den Broeck’s way back to top form has been a long and hard one. Depressed by his situation, he put on 9kg in the aftermath of his accident but as soon as he returned to training, he was back at his usual weight.  He didn’t do any racing in the second half of 2013 and when he started his 2014 season, it seemed that his layoff had had a great impact on his form. He struggled in the first part of the season and things didn’t get any better when he suffered another crash in Tirreno-Adriatico that saw him being far from his best in the Volta a Catalunya, Vuelta al Pais Vasco and the Ardennes classics that were his first goals.

 

The fact that he had shown nothing in his first races caused his team to put him under pressure for the Dauphiné. If he was unable to convince the team that he would be up there with the best in the Tour, the team would be built entirely around André Greipel and there would be no room for Van Den Broeck at all.

 

However, rumours suggested that Van Den Broeck was back at his former level and when the Alpine race kicked off, they were confirmed. Right from the beginning, he did a surprisingly good time trial and after having been among the five best climbers in the race, he joined forces with Andrew Talansky in the final stage to make a big coup that saw him finish the race in third overall – his fourth top 5 finish in the French race.

 

The result proved that Van Den Broeck is now back at his highest level and this naturally puts him in podium contention. Despite not being an explosive rider, he is very aggressive and not afraid of taking a few risks in the mountains. However, his greatest asset is his fabulous consistency and his ability to maintain a solid pace for a very long period of time. There may be stronger climbers than him in the race but the attentive Belgian is unlikely to have a bad day and that is a very important skill in grand tour racing.

 

Surprisingly, Van Den Broeck is a former junior world champion in the time trial but the individual discipline has been his weak point ever since his emergence as a grand tour contender. He has done a tremendous amount of work to improve in the discipline and on numerous occasions he has given signs of huge improvements. In 2012, he did outstanding time trials at the Volta ao Algarve and the Criterium du Dauphiné and lasy year he once again exceeded expectations at the Tour de Romandie. His performance in the Dauphiné suggests that his improvement has continued and if he can transfer those results to the grand tours, he is a realistic podium contender.

 

Unlike many other GC riders, Van Den Broeck is not in a position where he is the main rider on the team. In fact, most of the team is built around Greipel and Van Den Broeck can only expect to have Bart De Clercq and Tony Gallopin at his side in the mountains. For the type of rider he is, that is no major disadvantage though and he will rely heavily on his sprint guys in the first week and especially on the cobbles.

 

Due to his long layoff, there are still a lot of questions surrounding Van Den Broeck. The fact that he hasn’t completed a grand tour for more than 2 years could be a disadvantage and it remains to be seen if he can keep up his level in the final week. At the moment, however, he seems to be back on track and if everything goes according to plan, consistency and reliability can again deliver Van Den Broeck a top 5 result or maybe even that elusive podium spot.

 

Bauke Mollema (**)

It is impossible not to admire the Netherlands for its ability to consistently produce great grand tour contenders. The country may be almost completely flat but for some reason, it seems that a new GC rider comes out of the youth ranks every year. With riders like Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Steven Kruijswijk and Wilco Kelderman, the Belkin team has produced four of the biggest grand tour talents in just a few years.

 

While it seems that Gesink will never fulfill the lofty expectations that were once placed on his shoulders, Kruijswijk has been set back by health issues and Kelderman is a bit younger than the rest, Mollema has had a very natural and gradual progress and has now reached a point where he can go into the Tour de France with his sights set on the podium. Having had a slow start to his professional career, it was the completion of his first grand tour in the 2010 Giro that made him take a significant leap forward and turn him into a real contender for the biggest races.

 

The first half of his 2011 season was littered with top 10 results in stage races and the expectations for his first Tour de France were huge. Unfortunately, bad luck took him out of contention and he struggled through the race. Later that year, however, he confirmed his talent in the three-week races when he finished 4th overall in the Vuelta and things were set for a very big 2012 season.

 

Unfortunately, that year ended as a disaster for Mollema. Again bad luck struck in the Tour de France and he chose to abandon the race to focus on the Vuelta but the Spanish race turned out as a big disappointment as he could only manage 28th. On the other hand, he showed great improvement in the hilly classics and for a brief moment, it seemed that he was about to develop into more of a one-day rider than a grand tour contender.

 

The 2013 Tour de France turned things around and again proved that he has a great future in three-week racing. Together with Laurens Ten Dam, he created what was known as “Mollemania” in his home country when the Belkin pair were both in podium contention by the halfway point of the race. Unfortunately, Mollema was hit by illness in the final week and dropped to sixth but the performance clearly indicated that the 27-year-old has the skills to fight for the podium in France.

 

This year has been a mixed experience for Mollema. He had a very poor start to his season but gradually found his legs in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. That set him up for a solid Ardennes campaign and especially his fourth place in Fleche Wallonne underlined his great climbing skills. With very limited racing in his legs, he finished second in the Tour of Norway – despite clearly being the strongest rider – and most recently he was third in the Tour de Suisse where only a poor time trial prevented him from challenging seriously for the overall victory.

 

His performances in the Ardennes and Switzerland indicate that he is a bit stronger than he was 12 months ago. He may have finished 2nd in last year’s Swiss race but back then he was only following wheels in the mountains. This year he was a key animator and in the stage to Verbier, only a surprisingly strong Esteban Chaves was better while the next day only Rui Costa was faster.

 

Mollema’s greatest asset is his versatility. First and foremost, he is a great climber who knows exactly how to pace himself back and never goes into the red zone too early. Secondly, he is a decent time triallist who excels especially on hilly courses. Even though he is no specialist, he should be able to gain time on most of his rivals on the lumpy course for stage 20 – if his poor performance in Switzerland is not a reflection of a sudden drop in his skills. Finally, he is pretty explosive and has a fast sprint and it is no coincidence that he has been one of the most consistent riders in the Ardennes over the last few years.

 

Mollema has done nothing to hide that he aims to benefit from the tricky first week that offers a lot of pitfalls. With the likes of Sep Vanmarcke and Lars Boom at his side, however, he is surrounded by a team that excels in the kind of racing that the opening part offers and Mollema will be ready to seize every opportunity to get a head start on his rivals. Together with Ten Dam, he will form a very strong duo in the mountains and based on his performances so far, he is a tad stronger than he was 12 months ago. Back then, he was pretty close to the podium and so 2014 could be the year when Mollema finally finishes in the top 3 in a three-week race.

 

Thibaut Pinot (**)

Thibaut Pinot is definitely not in an admirable position. As the host nation is in desperate search for their first winner of the race since 1985, every rider that has shown just the slightest bit of grand tour potential has been put under a lot of pressure and many of them have had a hard time coping with it. For years, Sylvain Chavanel carried the weight on his shoulders until both he and his home country realized that he was more of a classics rider than a stage race contender and nowadays Pinot is probably the one who finds himself under the greatest pressure.

 

Luckily the fantastic development in France that has seen the country produce lots of exciting talents over the last few years, means that more riders now carry the responsibility. Pierre Rolland, Romain Bardet and Warren Barguil are all up there with Pinot as future grand tour stars and as the former two are both at the start in Leeds, Pinot is not the only focus of the home nation in this year’s race.

 

For several year, Pinot had been announced as the next big French climber but it was his performance in his debut Tour de France in 2012 that fully confirmed his talents. In his first ever grand tour, he not only finished 10th overall, he even took an impressive solo win on a medium mountain stage in the Swiss mountains. In fact, he could have finished even higher if he hadn’t lost time in the crash-marred stage to Metz and even more impressively, the result was taken on a TT heavy course that didn’t suit his characteristics at all.

 

In last year’s Volta a Catalunya, Tour de Romandie and Tour de Suisse, he proved that he had taken a further step up and so he was under an extreme pressure to perform in the Tour. All was set for a beautiful showing by the young Frenchman. He made it safely through the feared first week without losing any time and was riding comfortably near the front on the first major mountain, Port de Pailheres, when Sky had exploded the peloton to pieces.

 

It all came to nothing on the subsequent descent. Due to a crash during his junior career, Pinot fears high speed and that was exactly what he had to deal with as the peloton was in full pursuit of Nairo Quintana down the mountain. He lost contact with the main favourites and lost all hopes of a top result. Pinot was left depressed and never recovered mentally from seeing months of preparation fall apart. He abandoned a week later, citing a sore throat.

 

However, Pinot bounced back with an excellent showing in the Vuelta a Espana where he rode consistently with the best climbers and finished the race in 7th. The result was the much needed confirmation that he is not only a great climber but also has the stamina to handle three weeks of hard racing.

 

Pinot is a pure climber who shines on the long, hard days in the mountains and on the biggest ascents. If it came down to pure climbing ability, his performances indicate that he would be a serious podium candidate. However, Pinot has a number of weaknesses that could see him lose time. First of all, he has that poor descending skill. During the winter, he did a lot to improve and even raced an F1 car on a motor circuit to get used to the high speeds. The efforts seem to have had an effect as he has looked a lot more comfortable on the descents recently.

 

Furthermore, he hates the battle for position and if the wind creates havoc on the peloton or a crash splits the field, there is a big risk that Pinot will be left behind. The stage over the Paris-Roubaix cobbles is a clear danger for Pinot and it would be no surprise if he emerges as one of the big losers when the dust has settled in front of the Arenberg forest. His team is aware of his weakness and often they go to the front on the climbs to whittle down the peloton and so reduce the fight for position.

 

Finally, Pinot is no great time triallist but this year he has improved massively. Usually one of the big losers in TTs, the FDJ leader has finished in the top 10 in races against the clock at the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse and this proves that he has taken almost unimaginable steps forward. Those stages, however, all took place on pretty hilly courses and even though the Tour time trial is pretty lumpy, the amount of climbing may not be enough to reduce Pinot’s time loss massively.

 

Until now, Pinot has not had a great season. Illness took him out of the Tour of Oman and a knee problem hampered him for most of the spring. He crashed in the queen stage of the Tour de Romandie and most recently he was again hampered by illness in the Tour de Suisse. With a vulnerable mentality, there is a risk that Pinot will go into the race with a lack of confidence and apart from his great time trialling, he hasn’t shown any progress in 2014. On the other hand, nothing suggests that he won’t continue his rapid rise through the ranks and if he can find back the climbing legs he has had in his previous grand tours and avoid the many pitfalls, France definitely has a podium contender on a course that suits their hero really well.

 

 

Rui Costa (**)

For the first time since 2010, the world champion lines up at the Tour de France with a focus on the GC. Having had a very gradual progression, Rui Costa reached the point where his Alejandro Valverde’s dominant position and Nairo Quintana’s rise through the ranks made it impossible for him to reach his goals at Movistar and he was forced to seek new pastures if he wanted to see how far he could come in the biggest races in the world. Despite having been with the team for 5 years, Costa had never had the chance to lead his team in a grand tour and the prospects of him earning a leadership role for the Tour were bleak.

 

Having won two stages in the Tour de France, Costa’s signature was a coveted one and many were surprised that it was Lampre-Merida who won the battle for the strong Portuguese. However, the Italian team could offer Costa just what he was looking for: a chance to be the sole leader in the Tour de France. The value of the Lampre investment was multiplied when Costa made use of a combination of good legs, calmness and tactical savvy to take a hugely impressive victory in the world championships in Florence.

 

Like so many others, Costa has felt the curse of the rainbow jersey. Despite great condition, he really seemed to be curse at the start of the season when he finished second no less than six times in the Volta ao Algarve and Paris-Nice. He failed to reach his best condition for the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and when it was time for his first big target in the Ardennes classics, a crash for his teammate Damiano Cunego took him out of contention in Fleche Wallonne before he hit the deck himself in Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Despite suffering from injuries sustained in the latter tumble, however, he ended his spring season on a high by taking third in the Tour de Romandie for the third year in a row.

 

Since then he has prepared meticulously for the race that really matters for him and that prompted him to change teams. When he returned to competition in the Tour de Suisse, he finally broke the drought and proved that he is fully ready for his big goal when he made history by becoming the first rider to win one of cycling’s biggest races three years in a row. Having had a slow start to the race, he sent his first warning shot by doing the time trial of his life and after having delivered a below-par performance in the first mountaintop finish, he put in an impressive showing in the queen stage to take both the stage and the overall victory.

 

The wins may have been the first for Costa but in fact he has never started his season better. He was one of the most consistent riders in the spring and when he wasn’t set back by bad luck, he was always up there in the big races. The first part of the season clearly suggests that Costa has taken a further step up and there is no doubt that he is one of the very best in weeklong stage races and hilly one-day races.

 

However, Costa still has to prove himself in a grand tour. He has only been riding for GC once when in the 2012 Tour he took over the leadership role from Valverde who had crashed out of contention. He rode a consistent and anonymous race to finish 18th overall but in that race he had never been expected to ride for the overall.

 

Last year he was hoping to play his cards in the GC alongside Valverde and Quintana but when the former was hit by bad luck on the windy roads to Saint-Armand-Montrond, he was asked to wait for his team leader and as the Movistar group never rejoined the peloton, all his GC hopes were crushed. Nonetheless, he bounced back with a strong showing and won two hard stages in impressive fashion.

 

Those two wins confirm the abilities as a one-day race that he has always had. However, he still hasn’t confirmed that he can perform consistently well over three weeks. In fact, he has usually had at least one bad day in the 9-day Tour de Suisse and that indicates that he may have a hard time keeping his usually very high level for three weeks.

 

Furthermore, Costa is no pure climber and he mostly excels on shorter climbs. In the Tour de Suisse, he has done well in the high mountains but his best results have not been taken in the toughest terrain. This is another area where Costa still has a slot to prove and with the final week being loaded with big mountain stages, the world champion will certainly be put under pressure. He is no real TT specialist but the few TTs he has done this year indicate that he has improved a lot and he could gain some time in the stage 20 race against the clock.

 

The stages in the Vosges suit him perfectly and the many medium mountain stages suit him down to the ground. He doesn’t have the strongest team to support him on the cobbles but if it comes down to pure skills, he should be better than most of his rivals. Costa could be one of the big winners in the first half of the race but his main challenge will be to keep going all the way to the end. There is no doubt that Costa has the top level to contend for the podium. This year we will get the first indication of his ability to keep it for the duration of a three-week race or if it is better to concentrate his efforts on the races in which he is already one of the very best.