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The big favourite to ride into Paris in the white jersey is Colombian Nairo Quintana. Ever since he won the Tour de l'Avenir in 2010, he has been marked out as a man for the future and his performances during his first 18 months as a Mo...

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TOUR DE FRANCE

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28.06.2013 @ 16:59 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

The battle for the white jersey offers an opportunity to keep an attentive eye on the most exciting stage racing talent in the world and the youth classification has had outstanding winners on most occasions ever since Francesco Moser took the first crown in 1975. This year's competition shapes up to be an extremely exciting one with 4 huge talents set to go head-to-head on the French roads throughout the next three weeks.

 

The white jersey competition is open to all riders born on January 1 1988 or later and this year 33 riders will line up with a chance to wear the coveted tunic. Among those is the most recent winner, Tejay Van Garderen, who hopes to be the first rider since Andy Schleck to take back-to-back wins.

 

The big favourite to ride into Paris clad entirely in white is, however, Colombian Nairo Quintana. Ever since he won the Tour de l'Avenir in 2010, he has been marked out as a man for the future and his performances during his first 18 months at the Movistar team has seen him rocket towards the top of the stage racing world.

 

When he hit peak condition for the first time this year, he proved that he is one of the very best climbers in the world. He left Alejandro Valverde, Joaquin Rodriguez and Bradley Wiggins behind him in the queen stage of the Volta a Catalunya and went on to win the Vuelta al Pais Vasco overall despite being a late inclusion in the line-up for the race.

 

This year's mountainous course suits him down to the ground and he should excel in the numerous hard stages in the final week of the race. At the same time, he is a much better time triallist than his tiny build would suggest, having laid the foundations for his Pais Vasco win by taking 2nd behind Tony Martin in the very hilly final stage time trial. Stage 11's flat course will doubtlessly see him lose time but he should excel on the tough route in stage 17.

 

What speaks against Quintana is the uncertainty over his form and his limited grand tour experience. He has not raced since the Ardennes classics, instead training on his own in his native Colombia. He prepared for his grand tour debut at last year's Vuelta in a similar way and on that occasion, his legs were not up to racing speed at the start of the race. If he wants to bring the white jersey all the way to Paris, he needs to turn up better prepared. And he still has not shown that he can handle the strains of a three-week race.

 

It will be hard for Van Garderen to defend his win. Last year's race was mostly determined in the time trials which played into the American's hands, the individual discipline being his clear strength. On the other hand, he is certainly not the strongest climber and despite evident improvements in the area, he still has a long way to go if he wants to realistically contend for a grand tour win. He may have won his first stage race at this year's Tour of California but the line-up at the event was not as strong as in previous years. Whenever he has lined up at WorldTour races, his climbing abilities have never been able to put him onto the podium, most recently evidenced at the Tour de Suisse. In a Tour that is set to be determined in the mountains, we doubt that they will be strong enough to land him a second consecutive white jersey.

 

Instead, it could very well be another American that challenges Quintana for the win. Like Van Garderen, Andrew Talansky is a truly versatile rider who both excels in time trials and in the mountains. He has gradually progressed since he turned professional in 2011, and while he mostly impressed in the time trials during his first year in the professional ranks, he has since turned into a genuine stage race contender.

 

Last year he took his first ever overall stage race win at the mountainous Tour de l'Ain and he went on to finish 7th in the Vuelta in his first ever attempt as a GC rider in a grand tour. Earlier he had finished 2nd behind Bradley Wiggins in the WorldTour Tour de Romandie. This year he once again finished 2nd in a WorldTour race at the Paris-Nice but illness took him out of contention at the Tour de Romandie and the Criterium du Dauphiné.

 

It was, however, the final stage of the latter that revealed the true extent of his talents. Having recovered sufficiently from his health problems, he finished 3rd in the final mountain stage behind lone escapee Alessandro De Marchi and Chris Froome. He had been asked to assist teammate Rohan Dennis in his quest to win the white jersey and finish in the top 10 overall but when those achievements appeared to be secured, he was allowed to try his hands. At that point, Richie Porte and Froome had already gone clear but the American clawed his way back to the Sky duo, losing the sprint for 2nd but leaving Porte behind. At the Tour, he is likely to gain time on Quintana in the time trials and if he can rediscover his best climbing legs, he will be very hard to beat in the battle for the white jersey, having already proved his ability to handle a grand tour at last year's Vuelta.

 

The final genuine contender is Thibaut Pinot. The young Frenchman finished second behind Van Garderen last year and has clearly stepped up his game a further notch. During the spring season, he has proved that he now belongs to the best climbers in the world, most recently finishing 4th at the Tour de Suisse where only Rui Costa appeared to be as strong in the mountains as the young Frenchman.

 

While Pinot excels in the mountains, his time trialling abilities remain a weakness. He showed signs of improvements in both the Bayern Rundfahrt and the Tour de Suisse but he is still likely to lose plenty of time in the two races against the clock. It will be hard to take back all that time in the mountains but unlike Quintana, he knows that he can handle a three-week race. At the same time, he has the benefit of a captaincy role in his team while Quintana, Van Garderen and Talansky could all be asked to sacrifice themselves for their leaders.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski looms as a dangerous outsider but the Pole has had a tendency to fade towards the end of one-week stage races. That lack of recovery could very well prove costly in his first ever grand tour. Ion Izagirre has made the white jersey a target and while the young Euskaltel rider is a huge talent, he has still not shown the abilities that makes it realistic to really challenge the likes of Quintana, Talansky and Pinot  in the battle for the white jersey.

 

You can read an in-depth analysis of Quintana, Talansky and Pinot in our discussion of the Tour outsiders here.

 

Favourites:

*** Nairo Quintana

** Andrew Talansky

* Thibaut Pinot

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