The Tour de France may barely be over but for the Vuelta contenders it is already time to launch their campaign. The Tour de Pologne has built up a reputation as an invaluable kick start to a bid to win the Spanish grand tour and the line-up suggests that this year will be no different. The race offers 7 days of tough racing and while it is still too early for the Vuelta contenders to be in their best form, the race still offers important WorldTour points and has traditionally been the scene of breakthrough performance by some of the sport’s most exciting stars.

 

The European part of the WorldTour calendar is almost solely made up of historical races in cycling’s traditional hotbeds but one event stands out. The Tour de Pologne was the surprise inclusion on the calendar when the UCI introduced the ProTour as the Eastern European country has never been a major powerhouse in cycling. However, the event has flourished over the last few years and the combination of a very talented generation of Polish cyclists and a big event in the finest race series have contributed to a cycling boom in the country.

 

The Tour de Pologne is actually a very old race but it has only made its existence known to the general cycling public in the last decade. First held in 1928, it enjoyed a mostly anonymous life as a national tour that mostly attracted Polish riders and did little to make an impact on the international cycling scene. Up until the 1990s, the winners were almost all national riders but during the last decade of the 1900s, more international riders got aware of the beautiful Polish race.

 

The major breakthrough as an international event came with the lauch of the UCI ProTour in 2005. To avoid building the series of only races in cycling's traditional powerhouses, UCI decided to include the Polish national tour on the list of the world's leading events – a further step in its attempt to globalize cycling. Suddenly, the biggest teams in the world were obliged to enter the race which enjoyed a special position as the only Eastern European event on the sport's finest calendar.

 

Since then the race has maintained its position on the UCI ProTour which later evolved into the UCI WorldTour and gradually the event has found its feet. In 2005, it was mostly a race for sprinters with often just one slightly hilly stage to spice things up while most of the stages were excessively long, flat runs through Poland. The race was held in early September and so was seen as a perfect preparation event for the Worlds. Hence, it was no surprise that the organizers managed to attract many classics specialists who needed the race to polish their form for the battle for the rainbow jersey. The winner's list was an illustrious one as Kim Kirchen, Stefan Schumacher, Johan Vansummeren and Jens Voigt took home the first 4 editions of the rejuvenated race.

 

However, those races were all plagued by bad weather with extreme rain even forcing the riders to neutralize a stage. To avoid those conditions, the race was rescheduled to become a late-July/early-August event in 2009. It lost its status as preparation event for the worlds but instead gained a new position as an almost indispensable part of the race schedule for those Vuelta contenders who had not raced the Tour. At the same time, the race managed to attract some of the Tour riders who hoped to use their post-Tour condition to pick up a few good results.

 

The race has maintained that role and has also found a much more attractive and thoroughly tested format. For several years, the courses were all very similar, with a couple of flat stages mixed up with a testing stage to Cieszyn and the queen stages to Zakopane and Bukowina Tatrzanska being the fixed core of the race itinerary. With no time trial and no long climbs, it was a race for puncheurs who score bonus seconds by sprinting up the short, steep climbs in the southern part of the country and it was no surprise to see the race being won by riders like Alessandro Ballan, Daniel Martin, Peter Sagan and Moreno Moser.

 

While those courses have all been rather successful, the organizers used last year’s edition to develop the race a bit further. To celebrate the relationship with Poland and the Italian Trentino region, the race will start in Italy which allowed the race to kick off with two very tough mountain stages. A rest day on Monday brought the race back to its home country where the challenging and well-tested stages to Zakopane and Bukowina Tatrzanska made further ground for aggressive racing. To spice things up even further, the traditional final sprint stage to Krakow had been replaced by a difficult, hilly 39km time trial. For the first time, the race suited the real stage race specialists with mini-grand tour format.

 

To add further to the spectacle, the race had been chosen as a test event for the UCI to try out new rules that should create more attractive races. First of all the usual 8-rider teams were replaced by reduced 6-rider rosters. Secondly, a rule change had been included to force the GC riders to race more aggressively. A daily points competition offered significant time bonuses for the main contenders who suddenly had an incentive to take part in the intermediate and KOM sprints. Those experiments, however, didn’t bring a lot of extra excitement to the racing and have been abandoned.

 

Of course the race won’t visit Italy two years in a row and so the massive climbing that featured in last year’s race, won’t be repeated. However, the race will venture into Slovakia for a new summit finish and the time on the final day will be maintained. With less hard climbing and a crucial race against the clock, this year’s race could be one for the time triallists – a strange evolution as the race was once one of the only WorldTour stage races where TT skills counted for nothing.

 

True to its role as a preparation race for the Vuelta, the race has attracted some of the big Vuelta stars that did not race the Tour. This year most of the main stars raced in France and so fewer big riders have been available. However, expected Vuelta protagonists like Fabio Aru, Samuel Sanchez, Ryder Hesjedal, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Maxime Monfort, Wout Poels, Warren Barguil, Julian Arredondo and Robert Kiserlovski will all use the event to build up the condition that should see them shine in Spain in late August and early September.  At the same time, the importance of WorldTour points means that the race itself will be highly contested.

 

In recent years, it has given some of the most exciting talents the possibility to pick up a big result. In 2010 Daniel Martin took his only stage race win to date while a certain Peter Sagan denied the Irishman a repeat win one year later. In 2012, the race also came down to a battle between the young guns when the race had temporarily been rescheduled to run concurrently with the Tour, thus forming a perfect warm-up race for the Olympics. Moreno Moser made it two in a row for Liquigas as he won a tight battle with Michal Kwiatkowski and Sergio Henao.

 

Last year, the race evolved into a very tight affair. Rafal Majka left Italy with the yellow jersey on his shoulders but Ion Izagirre made use of the new points system to take the lead in stage 5. One day later Christophe Riblon made a brave attack on the hilly circuit in Bukowina Tatrzanska to take the lead and all was set for an exciting duel between TT specialists Riblon and Izagirre in the final time trial. However, Pieter Weening did the time trial of his life and surprised everybody by taking the first stage race win of his career ahead of Izagirre and Riblon. Weening will be back to defend his title and Riblon will try to improve on last year’s performance while Izagirre is resting after a tough Tour de France.

 

The course

As said, the race has traditionally suited the puncheurs who could use the medium mountains and their explosive climbing skills to score bonus seconds in a race that was often decided by the tiniest margins. Last year, however, the race was a “real stage” race for the GC riders as it included both big mountain stages and a time trial.

 

For the first time ever, the time triallists may have the upper hand in this year’s race. The time trial is back on the course and even though the race features two summit finishes, they may not be hard enough to put some of the strong time triallists to much on the back foot.

 

Furthermore, the sprinters will lick their lips in anticipation of this year’s event. The race has traditionally had several sprint stages in the flat northern part of the country but last year the fast finishers didn’t have many chances to shine. In 2014, the race will again allow the sprinters to shine as the first four stages seem destined to end in bunch sprints.

 

While the sprinters are likely to shine in the first half, the second part is where the GC will be shaped. On Friday, the race briefly ventures into Slovakia for a brand new summit finish in what is likely to be the hardest stage of the race. One day later, the well-known stage to Bukowina Tatrzanska will offer the climbers a second chance to gain time. On the final day, the time triallists will get their chance to take back any lost time on a 25km mostly flat route. Being shorter than last year, the stage is less undulating than it was 12 months ago and the specialists will be looking forward to bringing the race to a close with a stage that suits them down to the ground.

 

Stage 1:

This year’s race kicks off in the far north which hasn’t been visited much by the race over the last few years. This part of Poland is completely flat and as the first part of the race serves the purpose of bringing the riders to the hilly south, it is no wonder  that the sprinters are expected to shine in the opening part of the race.

 

The journey starts with a mammoth 226km stage from Gdansk to Bydgoszcz and it will bring the riders a fair bit of the way from north to south. The stage is almost entirely flat as there will only be a few rolling hills at the midpoint of the stage. The highlights are the four intermediate sprints that come at the 2.5, 47.5, 86.1 and 171.8km marks.

 

The riders will reach Bydgodzcz after 201km of racing and 3.4km further down the road, they will cross the finish line for the first time. The stage ends with three laps of a flat 7.2km finishing circuit. Despite the flat nature, the organizers have found a very slight rise that will be used to find the first holder of the mountains classification as the only KOM sprint is located 15.6km from the finish in the second half of the first lap.

 

The finishing circuit has lots of corners but most of them are in roundabouts which means that the riders won’t have to brake too much. With 2.7km to go, they take a left-hand turn and then hit the small climb just after the 2km mark. Just after the top, they do a U-turn and descend down to the flamme rouge from where it is a long straight road to the finish.

 

It will be a tough ask to control this long stage but with many sprint stages on offer, a lot of teams have brought strong sprinters to the race. Hence, there should be a clear interest in making sure that this stage is one for the fast finishers. It will be a huge surprise if the Tour de Pologne doesn’t kick off with a big bunch sprint and for the GC riders, it will be all about staying safe. The only danger is the wind that could wreak havoc on the peloton on the flat roads in Northern Poland.

 

It’s the first finish in Bydgodzcz since the 2005 edition of the race when Jaan Kirsipuu beat Luca Paolini and Max van Heeswijk in a bunch sprint.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

The sprinters that were left disappointed on the opening day will get an immediate chance to take their revenge as the second stage is another one for the fast riders. On the second day the riders will make a small digression from their journey to the south as they will mainly travel in an easterly direction to end the stage in the Polish capital of Warsaw which hasn’t been visited by the race since 2011.

 

Stage 1 was mostly flat but this one is even flatter. This time there are no rolling hills and the long 226km trek from Torun to Warsaw offers virtually no altitude gains at all. Hence, it is no surprise that the organizers have not included a single mountain sprint and the main highlights will be the intermediate sprints at the 169.1 and 196.3km marks. As it is typical for the Tour de Pologne, the stage ends with three laps of a finishing circuit and this one is a completely flat affair of just 4.8km.

 

The finishing circuit has a few turns just after the passage of the finish line but otherwise it is mostly non-technical. 2km from the finish, the riders will turn left in a roundabout and then follow a long straight, completely flat road until the take the crucial final left-hand turn just 300m from the line.

 

A lot of sprinters will be hungry for revenge after stage 1 and they need to make the most of their opportunities in the first four days of the race. As the GC is still close, there is very little chance that this stage won’t be decided in a bunch sprint and there will be a huge battle in the streets of Warsaw for the honour of winning in the country’s capital.

 

Warsaw last hosted the Tour de Pologne in 2011 when Marcel Kittel took his first ever WorldTour victory on the opening day before going on to win another three stages of the race. In 2010, Jacopo Guarnieri was the fastest in the opening bunch sprint while Borut Bozic was the first winner in 2009. In 2007 and 2008, the race opened with a team time trial in the capital and they were won by Lampre-Fondital and Team CSC-Saxo Bank respectively, with Roberto Longo and Lars Bak becoming the first race leaders.

 

 

 

Stage 3:

On day 3, the riders will continue their long journey to the south when they travel from Kielce to Rzescow. We are still in the flat part of Poland and even though there are a few more hills than on stage 2, it is an almost completely flat affair. Nonetheless, the organizers have found a very small rise at the 115.9km mark where the second KOM sprint of the race will be contested. The only intermediate sprint comes after 144.8km of racing.

 

Unlike stages 1 and 2, stage 3 is not very long and the riders will be pleased to only have to do 174km after two exhausting days in the saddle. The riders will enter Rzescow after 156.3km of racing and at the 162km mark, they will cross the finish line for the first time. The stage ends with two laps of a flat 6km circuit in the finishing city.

 

The circuit is mostly non-technical and consists mainly of long straight roads. The final major turn comes at the 1.5km mark but inside the final kilometre, there are three sweeping bends. In the finale, the road bends slightly to the right but being mostly straight, it should be one for the real power sprinters.

 

Again it is very hard to imagine that the sprinters will let this opportunity slip away and there should be lots of interests in setting the fast finishers up for what is likely to be a third consecutive bunch sprint. Again the only challenge is the danger of wind which forces the GC riders to be on their toes right from the beginning of the race.

 

Rzeszow hosted a stage finish in last year’s race when Thor Hushovd marked his return to form by beating Mark Renshaw and Steele Von Hoff in a bunch sprint. It 2009 his compatriot Edvald Boasson Hagen held off Jürgen Roelandts and Danilo Napolitano in the final dash to the line but in 2008, Roelandts did one better when he beat Jose Joaquin Rojas and Steven De Jongh to take a big WorldTour win in his first year as a professional.

 

 

Stage 4:

Rarely has the start of a WorldTour race been so geared towards the sprinters as this year’s Tour de Pologne and the monotony won’t be broken on the fourth day of racing. The riders have now reached the hilly south but before venturing into the mountains, they will do another flat stage as they travel from Tarnow Gemini Park in a westerly direction to the traditional finish in Katowice.

 

Again it is a very long stage as the riders will cover no less than 236km. However, the distance and the potential wind will be the only challenges as the terrain is almost completely flat. There are intermediate sprints at the 26.7, 119.2, 148.3, 161.5 and 175.5km marks and after 183.7km of racing the riders enter Katowice.

 

The stage ends with four laps of a pretty long 12.3km finishing circuit that is almost completely flat. However, there are two small climbs that will be used to hand out KOM points. On the second lap, the biggest of them will be the scene of the first KOM sprint while the second ascent comes just 1.5km from the finish and will offer points on the penultimate lap.

 

The circuit is pretty technical and has several corners interspersed with long, straight roads. The riders turn left just after the 2km to go mark to go up the small climb and then do a U-turn in a roundabout with 1km to go. From there, it is a long, straight, slightly descending road to the finish.

 

This is the final opportunity for the sprinters in this race and again it is hard to imagine that it won’t end in a bunch sprint. The stage, however, is a very long one and it requires a fair bit of work to stay in control throughout the entire day. If one sprinter has proved to be superior, his team may get little help and this could open the door for late attacks that could surprise the sprinters.

 

That happened in Katowice one year ago when Taylor Phinney made a brave move and narrowly held off the sprinters, with Steele Von Hoff beating Yauheni Hutarovich in the sprint for second. In 2012, Aidis Kruopis prevailed in a bunch sprint while Marcel Kittel was the fastest in 2011. In 2010, Hutarovich took a big WorldTour win when he beat Lucas Haedo and Allan Davis.

 

 

 

Stage 5:

After four days for the sprinters, it is finally time to find out who has a chance of winning this year’s Tour de Pologne when the race hits the mountains on the fifth day of racing. Starting in Zakopane that has traditionally hosted a stage finish, the riders will cover 190km before they reach the finish in Strbske Pleso.

 

Most of the stage will take place on Slovakian soil as the riders will descent to the border in the opening part of the race, reaching the neighbouring country after just 17.5km of racing. They will contest an intermediate sprint at the 20km mark and then get a chance to test their climbing legs on a category 2 climb at the 67.9km mark.

 

Apart from this challenge, the first part of the stage is mainly flat but things get tougher after the riders have contested two intermediate sprints at the 92.1 and 102.2km marks respectively. They now take on a long, gradual rise to reach the city of Tatranska Strba after 121.4km of racing, contesting a category 3 KOM sprint at the 117km mark.

 

The riders now go up the category 1 climb to Strbske Pleso but won’t continue all the way to the top where the finish line is located. Instead, they will do two laps of a 25.4km circuit that mainly consists of a descent and the category 1 climb. Having completed the second lap and contested the final KOM sprint, the riders will continue all the way to the top at 1313m of altitude. This additional 1.5km stretch has an average gradient of 6.2% and leads directly to the finish.

 

There is not an awful lot of information available about that final climb but the final 12km of the circuit are all uphill, meaning that it is a very long one. It is not very steep though as the maximum gradient is 5.5%. The average gradients of the final three kilometres are 4.4%, 4.2% and 5.1% with the final kilometre being the steepest. There is a steep 16% ramp just 200m from the line in the final part that will only be covered the final time up the climb.

 

This will be one of two chances for the climbers to gain time on the time triallists and they need to make the most of it.  History shows that the time gaps on the penultimate stage to Bukowina Tatrzanska will be measured in seconds, not in minutes, and so this may be the best chance to create bigger differences. However, the final climb is not very tough and the stage is unlikely to be very selective. There is a big chance that a pretty big group will arrive at the finish and sprint it out for the stage win.

 

 

 

Stage 6:

It has become a tradition for the Tour de Pologne to have the classic stage on the hilly circuit in Bukowina Tatrzanska on the penultimate day of the race. It made its debut in 2010 and since then it has been on the course every year and so it well-known by many of the riders.

 

The exact lay-out of the stage varies a bit from year to year. The 2014 edition of the stage is 174km long and brings the riders from the Bukovina Terma Hotel to the finish on the top of the Bukowina Tatrzanska climb. Having started the finish at the start-finish area, the riders cover the first part of the main 38.4km circuit before making a small digression to head to the city of Zakopane. Here they will do three laps of a slightly hilly circuit and contest two intermediate sprints before returning to the circuit to complete it and make it back to the finish line.

 

The rest of the stage is now made up of three laps of the circuit. It consists of three climbs and their subsequent descents with no flat roads in between. The category 1 Gliczarow Gorny (5.5km, 5.7%) is the first and has a tough 21.5% section at its midpoint. Next in line is the category 1 Zab climb (4.5km, 5.8%) which reaches a maximum gradient of 11.5% along the way. The final difficulty has not been categorized but the 5.0km ascent with an average gradient of 4.4% has the finish line located at its top. The third kilometre is the hardest with an 8.1% gradient and an 11.5% maximum but the final two kilometres are much easier at 2.6% and 3.8% respectively. The finish line comes at the end of a long only slightly winding road.

 

The circuit has been used in the four most recent editions. In 2010, Bauke Mollema attacked from a long distance to open up a 7-second gap on a small group at the finish, in 2011 Daniel Martin put 1 second into his nearest chaser Wout Poels while race leader Peter Sagan lost 13 seconds, and in 2012 Sergio Henao was reeled in by Moreno Moser and Michal Kwiatkowski just on the line, with the Italian coming out triumphant. Last year Christophe Riblon made a brave attack on the final lap and made it up to the remnants of a big early break. Darwin Atapuma was able to hang onto his wheel and while the Frenchman rode himself into yellow, the Colombian took the stage win. 22 seconds later Leopold König narrowly held off Diego Ulissi who won the sprint of a 15-rider group of favourites.

 

The climbs may all have some steep sections but their average gradients are not fearsome and the final few kilometres are pretty easy. In fact, only Riblon has been able to make a bigger difference and the time gaps will definitely be a matter of seconds. It’s a day more for puncheurs than real climbers but the riders who excel on the climbs, need to gain as much time as possible ahead of the final time trial.

 

 

Stage 7:

Last year the organizers introduced the novelty of holding a time trial on the final day and apparently they liked the idea. This year the final stage will again be a race against the clock and again Krakow will be the scene for the end of the race. In fact, the race has ended here every year since 2008.

 

However, there are not many similarities between the 2013 and 2014 time trials. At 37km, last year’s course was longer as the riders will only have to cover 25km in this year’s edition of the race. Furthermore, the 2013 stage was held on a point-to-point course that was pretty hilly and included some nasty climbs. This year’s stage takes place on a completely flat out-and-back course that is held entirely within the city. There are a few turns at the start and the finish but otherwise, it is made up of long, straight roads.

 

This stage definitely suits the biggest specialists and for the climbers, it could be a very costly day. There is little doubt it will be the most important stage in determining the overall winner of the Tour de Pologne and if one of the best time triallists can limit his losses reasonably in stages 5 and 6, he can do a lot of damage on this stage. With stage 7 set to decide the overall victory, the 2014 Tour de Pologne seems to be one for the time triallists and no one will win the race without possessing decent TT skills.

 

Last year Bradley Wiggins beat Fabian Cancellara by almost a minute in a true demonstration of force. Otherwise, the final stage has been one for the sprinters and it has been completely dominated by Germans. Robert Förster won the first battle in 2008 while André Greipel was the fastest in both 2009 and 2010. Marcel Kittel took a fourth stage win on the final day in 2011 while in 2012 his teammate John Degenkolb became the latest sprinter to win in Krakow.

 

 

 

The favourites

The Tour de Pologne is one of the harder races to predict as most riders enter the race just off the back of a mid-season break from competition and many riders haven't raced since their national championships. Some may have done the Tour de Wallonie or the Tour of Austria but their conditions are all a bit up in the air and not even the teams themselves have a clear idea of what to expect. For most of the biggest names, the race is also mostly a preparation for upcoming bigger objectives and so it is no surprise that some of the young guns have beaten all the stage race stars in recent editions. Only a few Tour de France riders have decided to start the race and it is also hard to know how they will cope with a tough one-week race on the back of a very hard three-week Tour.

 

Most of the recent editions of the race have been suited to puncheurs who excel on the short, not very steep climbs in the southern part of Poland, and this is reflected in the list of winners. Last year’s race was one for the true stage race specialists who can both climb and time trial but this year’s race is definitely one for the time triallists.

 

The first four stages are all set to be dominated by the sprinters and so it will all be decided in the final three stages. The climb to Strbske Pleso is a new one but with gradients of 4-5% most of the time, it is very hard for the climbers to make a difference. History shows that small groups are likely to sprint it out for the win on such ascents and even though the 16% ramp near the finish may open gaps in the end, it will only be a matter of seconds among the 20-30 riders that are strong enough to make it into the lead group.

 

The stage to Bukowina Tatrzanska is well-known and while the heavy guys usually lose a lot of time, the difference between the best is a matter of seconds. The biggest time gaps in the top of the GC will definitely be made in the final time trial and so no one will win this race without possessing solid TT abilities.

 

The amount of climbing means that the heaviest specialists have no chance but a strong time triallist can allow himself to lose a few seconds in the finales of the two climbing stages as the time trial is long enough to take it back. The final factor that could come into play are the bonus seconds. There are 10, 6 and 4 seconds for the first three riders across the finish line and 3, 2 and 1 seconds at the intermediate sprints. A fast sprint is definitely an advantage and a good puncheur can potentially gain 20 seconds in the two climbing stages which will be a significant advantage for the time trial. Nonetheless, the most important set of skills required to win this race is a solid pair of TT legs.

 

Team Sky have had a disastrous 2014 season and have only won a single WorldTour stage race, the Tour de Romandie. However, another victory could come in Poland as the team lines up a very strong roster even though none of their major stars will be on the start line. This could give Dario Cataldo a rare chance the race for himself and the Italian has all the characteristics to shine on this course.

 

Cataldo is both a solid climber who will be very hard to drop on these pretty easy climbs and he even has a decent sprint. This will come in handy in stages 5 and 6 where a select group could end up sprinting for the win. In the 2012 Volta a Catalunya and 2013 Vuelta a Burgos he got close to victory in such uphill sprints and if he is at 100%, he may score a few bonus seconds in those two stages.

 

However, his main asset is his great time trialling skills. His major breakthrough in the discipline came in 2012 when he was a surprise winner of the Italian championships and since then he has been among the best. Last year he was fifth in the Vuelta time trial and this year he was second in his national championships and won the Coppi e Bartali TT. Those results were all taken on hilly courses but in Tirreno-Adriatico he made it into the top 10 in a short, flat TT for the really powerful riders.

 

None of the really versatile grand tour stars will be at the start line in Poland and this elevates Cataldo to one of the best time triallists among the GC rider. If he is already back in form, he will only lose second in the climbing stages and he should be able to take it back in the time trial.

 

The main question is his condition. After his mid-season break he has only raced in last weekend’s Italian one-day races where he worked as a domestique. There is a big risk that he is not yet at 100% as he is probably building his condition for the Vuelta. On the other, he was riding very strongly in the Vuelta a Burgos 12 months ago. He may be inspired by a course that suits him perfectly and if is at the same level as he was in 2013, he could take the biggest win of his career.

 

Peter Velits is one of the select few riders who will be doing this race on the back of the Tour de France and last year Riblon and Izagirre proved that it is possible to do well in Poland just a week after the finish on the Champs-Elysees. Velits will be inspired by the stage that finishes in Slovakia and he will find a course that suits him well.

 

Velits is no longer the stage race rider he once was. First of all he doesn’t climb as strongly as he did a few years ago. Secondly, his time trialling has deteriorated over the last few years. However, he seems to have finished the Tour strongly as he was a solid 16th in the final time trial and played a key role for Tejay van Garderen in the final week.

 

The amount of climbing in this race is fairly easy and Velits will have a solid chance of keeping up with the best in this terrain. Then it all comes down to the final time trial where he should be one of the best GC riders. He would definitely have preferred a hillier course but in the past he has done well in flat time trials too. If he is as strong as he was in the final Tour TT, he should be one of the best GC riders and this will make him a clear winner candidate.

 

The second Sky card is Kanstantsin Siutsou who finds himself in a similar position to Cataldo. He is usually riding as a domestique but he has the skills to do really well on his own. In the past, he has finished in the top 10 in the Giro and before he crashed, he seemed to be riding really well in this year’s Italian grand tour too. In June, he finished 4th in the Route du Sud and put his climbing skills on show.

 

Siutsou is both a solid climber and a great time triallist. In the recent Tour of Austria, he finished 6th in the time trial and worked hard for Peter Kennaugh on the climbs. Last year he was 10th in the World TT and with his current condition, he should be among the best in stage 7. He may not have been climbing extraordinarily in Austria but on these easy climbs, he should be able to keep up with the best. Then it all comes down to the time trial where he will be a definite threat.

 

 It is only a matter of time before Bob Jungels will win his first WorldTour stage race but it may actually come earlier than most have expected. Even though the Luxembourger is not yet strong enough on the climbs to win the historic races in Western Europe, he may take an early WorldTour victory in Poland on a course that is not too difficult.

 

The main challenge for Jungels will be to keep up with the best climbers but the ascents in this race should be manageable for the TT specialist. Earlier this year he finished in the top 20 in Paris-Nice and in the top 10 in Criterium International and those two races both had harder climbing and a minimal amount of time trialling. On the really climbs, he is still far from the best but in this terrain he may be able to limit his losses.

 

His main assets are his great TT skills. If he has managed to reduce his time loss in the two hilly stages to a matter of seconds, he will be a formidable threat in the TT. This year he finished 3rd in the Dauphiné time trial behind Chris Froome and Alberto Contador and unlike many other GC riders, he should be able to do well on the flat course in Poland.

 

The main question is his condition as he crashed hard in training a few weeks ago. That will definitely have been a setback and it is still doubtful whether he has recovered enough. In the Tour of Austria, however, he proved that he has a solid condition and this makes him one of the favourites to win.

 

Another rider that should excel on this course is Andrey Amador. The Costa Rican is mostly a loyal domestique but Movistar have not lined up any of their stars in Poland. This will open the door for Amador who will find the course to his liking.

 

Amador has just completed the Tour de Wallonie where he seemed to be one of the strongest riders but the course was not hard enough to make a difference. This indicates that he is already in good condition and this could allow him to limit his time losses on the climbs. He may not be a pure climber but in this terrain he should be able to do well.

 

Amador is not a real TT specialist but on his day, he can do a very good time trial. Last year he finished third in the Tirreno TT on a completely flat course and if he can reproduce that kind of effort in stage 7, he should be among the best. As one of the few time triallists who can climb and have shown good condition, he is definitely one of the favourites.

 

Maxime Monfort has had a pretty bad season and it all culminated when he crashed out of the Tour de Suisse. He is a solid but non-spectacular climber whose main assets are his great TT skills. In 2014 he hasn’t been at his best but he actually seemed to be in a pretty good condition in the recent Tour de Wallonie.

 

These easy climbs suit him well and if he can limit his losses, he has a chance to win the race by virtue of a good time trial. He has not been time trialling too well in 2014 but if his Wallonie performance is indicative of his condition, he may get closer to his past level in Poland. If that is the case, he has a short at the victory.

 

As usual, Thomas De Gendt is one of the wildcards. The Belgian is usually very inconsistent and as he hasn’t raced for a while, no one knows what kind of condition he is in. In the Giro, he was riding pretty well in the third week and in general he has been a lot stronger in 2014 than he was in his final season with Vacansoleil.

 

There is a big chance that he will be far off the mark in the mountains but with De Gendt, you never know. If he is close to his best, he should be able to keep up with the climbers on these ascents and then he will be a threat in the time trial. On his days, he is formidable in TTs as he proved when he finished third in last year’s Tour TT. If he can reproduce that kind of effort, he can win the race.

 

Cameron Meyer is another rider who has the skills to win this race. The climbing is not too hard and if he is in decent condition, he should be able to limit his losses in stage 5 and 6. Even though he has never reached the lofty heights in the time trials, he is decent time triallist. There are definitely better riders for the final TT but among the GC riders, Meyer should still be one of the best. He didn’t excel in the Italian one-day races last weekend but they didn’t suit him too well. He hasn’t been at his best since the 2013 Tour de Suisse but if he can reach a similar level, he can win this race.

 

His teammate Peter Weening is the defending champion but the Dutchman won’t find this course to his liking. Last year he laid the foundations for his win in the final time trial but it will be hard to repeat that feat this time around. This year’s course is a lot flatter and the easier climbing in the mountain stages means that a lot more riders will still be in contention on the final day. For Weening to repeat the win, the race has to be very hard and the best climbers have to drop the strongest time triallists which will be hard to do.

 

Roman Kreuziger is a surprise inclusion on the start list and nobody knows how well he is riding at the moment. However, the Czech seems to have been training seriously despite the uncertainty over his status and if he is in great condition, he will obviously be a winner candidate. However, he is no longer the time triallist he once was and these days he usually loses a lot of time in the TTs – just recall his poor performance in the Tour de Suisse. This flat course doesn’t do him many favours and like Weening he needs the race to be almost unrealistically hard to win the race.

 

Ryder Hesjedal is another one of those great climbers who is hampered by this course. The Canadian is building for the Giro and his condition is completely unknown. He is usually not at his best in his build-up races and this means that he is much more of an outsider than a favourite. As he is no TT specialist either, it will be hard for him to win the race. Compared to the pure climbers, however, he has a decent TT and if the real specialists all get into difficulty in the mountains he has a chance.

 

Robert Gesink is doing his first stage race since his heart surgery which means that his condition is unknown. However, he didn’t have a very long break from competition and he has been training seriously for a very long time. We expect him to be back at a solid level as he is never too far away from his best. Gesink actually has a decent uphill sprit and may have a chance to score a few bonus seconds but the climbing should be too easy for him to make a difference. A few years ago he had improved his time trialling a lot but he doesn’t seem to be at his best anymore. If the race turns out to be really hard, however, he could be one of the best time triallists among the riders in GC contention.

 

Mattia Cattaneo has never been even close to the win in a WorldTour stage race but on this easy course he has a chance. At his best, he is a pretty solid climber and he shouldn’t lose too much time in stages 5 and 6. If he is still in contention on the final day, he will be a danger man. This year he has improved his time trialling a lot and he was 10th in the Tour de Suisse time trial. It was held on a much hillier course but he has done a lot to improve his skills in the individual discipline. If he can reproduce that Swiss performance in Poland, he could create a surprise.

 

Moreno Moser won this race two years ago but since he won the 2013 Strade Bianche he has been a shadow of his former self. Nothing suggests that he is back at his former level but as he is undoubtedly a great talent he deserves a mention. This course suits him perfectly as the climbing is not too tough and he will be one of the fastest in the uphill sprints that are likely to decide stages 5 and 6. He is a great time triallist as well and this makes him a clear winner candidate. We will be surprised to see him feature among the best but if he has finally found his best level, he is one of the riders that can actually win this race.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen is another wildcard in this race. The Norwegian is coming back from injury and claims only to be focused on stage wins. Hence, he will probably not feature in the pointy end of the race. However, the course suits him pretty well. The climbing may be a bit too tough for him but if he is close to 100% he may have a chance to keep up with the best. With his fast sprint, he may score a few bonus seconds and his time trialling skills are among the best in the peloton.

 

Another joker is Michael Matthews. This year the Australian has been climbing better than ever before and these climbs are not very steep. If Matthews has the legs he had in the Giro, it may be impossible for the climbers to gain more than a few seconds on him in stages 5 and 6 and he can potentially erase his deficit by taking bonus seconds in the sprint stages. Earlier this year he won the Tour de Slovenie time trial and even though this TT may be a bit too long to suit him perfectly, a chance to win the race overall may provide him with the needed motivation.

 

Davide Formolo has been the big revelation of the 2014 season. He has been climbing excellently well all year. He finished in the top 10 in his first WorldTour race at the Tour de Suisse and Vincenzo Nibali was unable to drop him in the Italian road race championships. Now we all know how strong Nibali was at that time and this speaks volumes about Formolo’s potential. This course should be too easy for him but he actually did some very good time trials in the Tour de Suisse. If he can reproduce those performances, another surprise may be in store from Formolo.

 

***** Dario Cataldo

**** Peter Velits, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Ion Izagirre

*** Bob Jungels, Andrey Amador, Maxime Monfort, Thomas De Gendt,Benat Intxausti

** Cameron Meyer, Pieter Weening, Roman Kreuziger, Ryder Hesjedal, Robert Gesink, Mattia Cattaneo, Moreno Moser, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Michael Matthews, Davide Formolo

* Sergei Chernetskii, Maxime Bouet, Christophe Riblon, Rafal Majka, Wout Poels, Fabio Aru, Samuel Sanchez, Dominik Nerz, Tobias Ludvigsson, Georg Preidler, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Steve Morabito, Alexandre Geniez, Rory Sutherland, Robert Kiserlovski, Julian Arredondo, Artem Ovechkin, Ilnur Zakarin, Sergey Firsanov, Anthony Roux, Adriano Malori