The Tour de Pologne has traditionally offered lots of opportunities for the sprinters and this year it will be no different. The 7-day race kicks off with four stages that are destined to end in bunch sprints and this has attracted a fabulous line-up of fast finishers who will all try to score a few WorldTour points on the plains of Northern Poland. They will get their chance in a long 226km completely flat opening stage that also offers the lucrative prize of becoming the first leader of the race.

 

The course

This year’s race kicks off in the far north which hasn’t been visited much by the race over the last few years. This part of Poland is completely flat and as the first part of the race serves the purpose of bringing the riders to the hilly south, it is no wonder that the sprinters are expected to shine in the opening part of the race.

 

The journey starts with a mammoth 226km stage from Gdansk to Bydgoszcz and it will bring the riders a fair bit of the way from north to south. The stage is almost entirely flat as there will only be a few rolling hills at the midpoint of the stage. The highlights are the four intermediate sprints that come at the 2.5, 47.5, 86.1 and 171.8km marks.

 

The riders will reach Bydgodzcz after 201km of racing and 3.4km further down the road, they will cross the finish line for the first time. The stage ends with three laps of a flat 7.2km finishing circuit. Despite the flat nature, the organizers have found a very slight rise that will be used to find the first holder of the mountains jersey as the only KOM sprint is located 15.6km from the finish in the second half of the first lap.

 

The finishing circuit has lots of corners but most of them are in roundabouts which means that the riders won’t have to brake too much. With 2.7km to go, they take a left-hand turn and then hit the small climb just after the 2km mark. Just after the top, they do a U-turn and descend down to the flamme rouge from where it is a long straight road to the finish.

 

It’s the first finish in Bydgodzcz since the 2005 edition of the race when Jaan Kirsipuu beat Luca Paolini and Max van Heeswijk in a bunch sprint.

 

The weather

The rescheduling of the race has definitely paid off. In the past, the race was significantly hampered by torrential rain but that won't be an issue for the opening stage. Instead, the riders will have to handle very hot conditions as it will be a very sunny day with a maximum temperature of 34 degrees.

 

It will be a pretty windy day too as there will be a rather strong wind from a southeasterly direction. This means that the rdiers will first have a headwind, then a cross-headwind and finally a crosswind in the finale. On the finishing circuit, the wind will come from several different directions but it will be a cross-tailwind on the finishing circuit.

 

The favourites

The Tour de Pologne may be split into two halves. The first four stages are clear sprint stages where it is all about survival for the GC riders. The second half is made up of a time trial and two hilly stages that are set to determine the GC and this is the only opportunities for the favourites to make a difference.

 

With more than half of the race being made up of flat stages, it is no wonder that almost all teams have lined up a fast finisher that has the chance of picking up a very prestigious WorldTour victory. Most of the big name sprinters that didn’t do the Tour, have included the Polish race in their calendar and this means that the event can present a very strong line-up of fast men.

 

The number of sprinters also means that it will be very hard to avoid the predicted scenario of a bunch sprint in the first four stages. For many teams, the sprint stages are some of their biggest goals in the race and they cannot afford to let any opportunity slip away. There should be lots of interest in keeping things together for a bunch sprint in the opening stage and the only aspect that can potentially change the outcome is the wind.

 

A first stage in a stage race can be a tricky affair as it is not obvious which team has to control the race, and very often a breakaway has stolen the glory – and maybe even the overall victory – right from the beginning of the race. In the Tour de Pologne, however, the many sprint teams should make sure that this kind of uncertainty doesn’t create an unpleasant surprise for the GC riders.

 

For Giant-Shimano, the sprint stages are the main goals and they will do a lot of the early work to keep things together. They may get some assistance from Garmin-Sharp that has a pretty strong sprint team in this race and Lotto Belisol, Belkin and Lampre-Merida also have powerful sprinters with solid support. Some of those teams are likely to lend Giant-Shimano a hand and even though it is a very long stage, that kind of firepower should be enough to keep the race under control.

 

The wind could become a factor in the race as there will be a pretty strong wind. The fact that it will be a crosswind in the finale could make the race very nervous and this will make it even faster too. In past editions, the wind has rarely played a role in the Tour de Pologne and we will be pretty surprised if things are different in tomorrow’s stage. The fact that the stage ends with a few laps in a big city makes it even harder to maintain splits all the way to the finish. Nonetheless, the windy conditions should make the race faster and more controlled.

 

Everything suggests that the race will be decided in a bunch sprint and as Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel and André Greipel are not in the race, most sprinters believe in their chance. This will make the sprint very hotly contested.

 

The sprint takes place on a long straight road with a cross-tailwind which means that this is a sprint for the really fast, powerful riders. In this kind of sprint, it is less about positioning and more about speed. However, the finishing straight doesn’t seem to be very wide which will make it easier to get boxed in. Hence, team support will definitely play a role.

 

As it is very often the case, Giant-Shimano lines up one of the strongest lead-out train for the race. Even though Nikias Arndt, Ramon Sinkeldam and Luka Mezgec don’t have an awful lot of experience in working together, they form a pretty powerful sprint formation. Their designated sprinter for this race is Mezgec who crowned a great Giro by winning the final stage in Trieste.

 

Mezgec is not a pure sprinter and he mainly excels in sprints that come at the end of long, hard days as he is a better climber than most of his fellow fast finishers. This year, however, he seems to have become a lot faster. He dominated the Volta a Catalunya and even though he wasn’t up against the strongest sprint contingent, his big winning margins proved how far he has come as a sprinter. However, it was his win in the Giro that showed that he can now mix it up with some of the very fastest riders in the world.

 

The final sprint may not suit him perfectly but with a strong team at his side, he can expect to be brought into perfect position. As the really powerful sprinters are all absent, the playing field seems to be fairly level and this will make positioning even more important. Sinkeldam and Arndt should provide Mezgec with a big advantage which makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

On paper, the most successful sprinter in the race is probably Sacha Modolo. The Italian has had a fantastic season with several wins, most recently in the Tour de Suisse. If he is at 100%, he could easily take another couple of WorldTour victories in the Polish race but his condition is highly uncertain.

 

Modolo was forced out of the Tour de France due to illness and this was a major setback for him. While announcing his race schedule, he made it clear that he expected to be ready to go for glory in the Eneco Tour but that the Tour de Pologne may come a bit too early for him.

 

If Modolo is not yet at 100%, Lampre-Merida may work for Roberto Ferrari in the sprint. However, Modolo hasn’t ruled himself out completely and the final decision about which rider to support will probably be made during the stage. The final sprint doesn’t suit Modolo very well but on paper he should still be one of the fastest riders in this field. With Ferrari and Niccolo Bonifazio at his side, he has decent team support and if he decides to give it a go, he should be in the mix for the stage win.

 

When it comes to team support, Tyler Farrar is in a better position than most of his rivals. The American may no longer be the sprinter he once was but in this race the sprints are clearly the big goal for Garmin-Sharp and this is a definite advantage. With riders like Steele Von Hoff, Raymond Kreder and Koldo Fernandez, he is surrounded by several fast riders that can string out the peloton in the finale.

 

Even though he failed to win a stage, Farrar did a decent Vuelta in 2013 to prove that he is still a very fast rider. He did a great classics season where he also sprinted excellently well, taking 2nd in both Dwars door Vlaanderen and Scheldeprijs which has a very powerful line-up of sprinters.

 

His Giro was a disappointment but in that race he didn’t have much support. When he again had a complete lead-out train at his disposal in the Ster ZLM Toer, he finished 2nd thrice in a field that included riders like André Greipel and Marcel Kittel. He hasn’t been racing since the Dutch event but if he has the same kind of condition, tomorrow may be the day when Farrar returns to WorldTour glory.

 

Juan Jose Lobato has had a great first season with Movistar and has proved that he is not too far from the best sprinters in the world. He has already taken six second places and some of them have been achieved in races that included some of the fastest riders in the world. Earlier this week he took his first win when he won the third stage of the Tour de Wallonie by a big margin.

 

Unlike the likes of Mezgec, Modolo and Farrar, Lobato cannot count on a lot of support in the finales but he has proved that he knows how to position himself. This sprint doesn’t suit him perfectly as he would have preferred it to be more technical. As he is mostly on his own, there is a big risk that he will be out of position for the sprint. If he gets a clear run to the line, however, he has the speed to win.

 

Usually, we would have made Theo Bos our big favourite to win this stage as such a power sprint suits him perfectly. However, the fast Dutchman has not been sprinting very well in 2014 and apart from an overall victory in the World Pors Classic, he has not had an awful lot of success in Europe.

 

Bos sprinted pretty poorly in the Ster ZLM Toer and things didn’t look too good for him in the Tour de Wallonie where he could only manage 9th in the first sprint and was one of the first to get dropped on the climbs. In this race, he has Jack Bobridge, David Tanner and lead-out man Graeme Brown to support him in the sprints and in theory that should be a pretty powerful formation. As he is not at 100%, Bos is more of an outsider than a favourite but you can never rule out the man who is probably the fastest rider in this bunch.

 

Ben Swift is no pure sprinter and this power sprint doesn’t suit him too well. In the Giro, however, he sprinted better than ever before, even in the very flat finishes. To win this kind of stage, he still needs to be brought into the perfect position but with Edvald Boasson Hagen at his side, he has very capable support. The Norwegian could also be chosen as the designated sprinter but as he is coming back from injury, Swift is most likely to be the Sky man for the day. Things have to go his way if he wants to win this stage but if he has the legs he had in the Giro, he definitely has a chance.

 

Michael Matthews is not really suited to this kind of sprint and there are definitely faster riders than him. On the other hand, he has a very strong lead-out rain at his side. Brett Lancaster and Mitchell Docker know how to string things out in the finale and it would be no surprise if Orica-GreenEDGE rules in the finale. If Matthews is dropped off in the perfect position, he may overcome his lack of speed to win the stage.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. As said, Modolo is not 100% confident in his chances and this could open the door for Roberto Ferrari. The Italian fastman didn’t have a very good first season with Lampre-Merida but in the Giro he proved that he was getting closer to his former level. In that race, he was on his own in the finales but in this race he can expect to get support from Bonifazio and Modolo if he is chosen as the designated sprinter. He may not be as fast as he once was but on paper he is still one of the fastest riders in this field. If he has the legs he had in the Giro, this could be his chance to shine.

 

A few years ago, we would have made Yauheni Hutarovich one of our big favourites to win this kind of sprint but the last few seasons definitely haven’t been a walk in the park for the Belarusian. Even though he is not back at 100%, however, things have been better in 2014. Very often he is out of position for the sprint and so has no chance to make use of his fast top speed and this is a clear disadvantage in a field that is loaded with sprinters all vying for the best position. However, he has Davide Appollonio and Gediminas Bagdonas at this side and he showed solid condition in the Tour de Wallonie. If he manages to overcome his poor positioning, this could be his chance to shine.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Luka Mezgec

Other winner candidates: Sacha Modolo, Tyler Farrar

Outsiders: Juan Jose Lobato, Theo Bos, Ben Swift, Michael Matthews

Jokers: Roberto Ferrari, Yauheni Hutarovich