For the second day in a row, the sprint teams played a waiting game and this time they were not saved by the weather conditions. The many fast finishers in the race are now running out of options and they cannot allow themselves to miss out again tomorrow which again looks like another guaranteed bunch sprint. However, this year’s Tour de Pologne is anything but predictable and if the sprint teams fail to cooperate, another surprise may be in store.

 

The course

On day 3, the riders will continue their long journey to the south when they travel from Kielce to Rzescow. We are still in the flat part of Poland and even though there are a few more hills than on stage 2, it is an almost completely flat affair. Nonetheless, the organizers have found a very small rise at the 115.9km mark where the second KOM sprint of the race will be contested. The only intermediate sprint comes after 144.8km of racing.

 

Unlike stages 1 and 2, stage 3 is not very long and the riders will be pleased to only have to do 174km after two exhausting days in the saddle. The riders will enter Rzescow after 156.3km of racing and at the 162km mark, they will cross the finish line for the first time. The stage ends with two laps of a flat 6km circuit in the finishing city.

 

The circuit is mostly non-technical and consists mainly of long straight roads. The final major turn comes at the 1.5km mark but inside the final kilometre, there are three sweeping bends. In the finale, the road bends slightly to the right but being mostly straight, it should be one for the real power sprinters.

 

Rzeszow hosted a stage finish in last year’s race when Thor Hushovd marked his return to form by beating Mark Renshaw and Steele Von Hoff in a bunch sprint. It 2009 his compatriot Edvald Boasson Hagen held off Jürgen Roelandts and Danilo Napolitano in the final dash to the line but in 2008, Roelandts did one better when he beat Jose Joaquin Rojas and Steven De Jongh to take a big WorldTour win in his first year as a professional.

 

 

The weather

The first part of the race has mostly been raced in very hot conditions and the riders are likely to be pleased that things will be a bit more bearable in tomorrow’s stage. A cloudy day is expected and the temperature will reach a maximum of only 28 degrees which is a lot better than the 35 degrees that have greeted them two days in a row.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind almost all day and it could turn out to be a pretty fast stage. On the finishing circuit, there will mostly be a crosswind. With 1.5km to go, the riders turn into a headwind before they hit the finishing straight just after the flamme rouge from where it will be a crosswind from the left.

 

The favourites

The opening four stages of the Tour de Pologne were expected to be guaranteed opportunities for the sprinters but so far nothing has gone to the plan for the fast finishers. First, wet and very slippery conditions took away the chance for most of them and today they failed to catch Petr Vakoc in time.

 

So far it has been a strange experience to watch the race. With Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish and André Greipel all skipping the race, this is one of the few WorldTour races were some of the second-tier sprinters have a chance to go for glory in several obvious sprint stages. However, the absence of an overwhelming favourite has made it less clear who’s going to do the chase work and the sprint teams have been playing a tactical mind game in the first two stages.

 

In fact, the break would probably have stayed away in stage 1 as well if it hadn’t been for the rain that made the GC riders extremely nervous and prompted them to up the pace. Today they had less of an incentive to ride on the front and apart from Tinkoff-Saxo, the GC teams left it all to the sprint teams to chase down the break. Eventually, several teams contributed to the pace-setting but most of them kicked into action way too late.

 

Luckily, there are still several sprint opportunities left and the many fast finishers should still get a chance to sprint for the win. First of all, they have all learnt their lesson by today’s surprise and we can expect more teams to chase a bit earlier in tomorrow’s stage. Secondly, the sprint hierarchy is now a bit more established and so more teams may now be keen to take some responsibility.

 

However, they have to be cautious. Today’s stage was very long and mostly into a headwind which is usually the worst conditions for a breakaway. Tomorrow’s stage is a lot shorter and the riders will enjoy a tailwind almost all day. This will make it much easier for the escapees and so they need to be kept on a much shorter leash.

 

As the break almost stayed away in stage 1, we were a bit surprised to see that only very few riders showed any interest in joining the early break in today’s stage. Many teams will be inspired by today’s experience, however, and they know that the shorter stage and the tailwind will be more conducive for a breakaway. Hence, we expect a harder battle and more aggressive start before the break takes off.

 

Tomorrow, however, we are pretty convinced that the break will be caught in time. First of all, Omega Pharma-Quick Step have a jersey to defend and they won’t give it away easily. Secondly, Orica-GreenEDGE have already promised to do more work and we expect several teams to start their chase a bit earlier after today’s big disappointment. In the end, Sky, Lampre-Merida, Giant-Shimano and Lotto Belisol all ended up doing some work and they will probably kick into action a bit earlier.

 

With a sprint on the cards, we again have to look at the fast finishers to find the favourites for the stage and this time the long finishing straight with its sweeping bends should make it one for the real power sprinters. It will still be important to be in a good position for the turns just after the flamme rouge but tomorrow it will be more about speed than positioning.

 

The sprint hierarchy is now a bit more established but we still haven’t had a clear sprint for the win with all the biggest sprinters present. A sprint for second is a different affair and so it is hard to put too much emphasis on the outcome of today’s sprint. The playing field is still very level and a lot of riders have a chance to win this kind of sprint.

 

Going into the race, Sacha Modolo was a bit uncertain about his condition as he had just come back from illness and he suggested that this race may have come a bit too early for him. In today’s stage, however, he was feeling good and he asked his team to contribute to the pace-setting. In the finale, he was riding on Roberto Ferrari’s wheel which clearly shows that he was the protected rider for the Italian team.

 

In the end, however, he got boxed in and finished in the middle of the field while the third rider in the train, Manuele Mori, ended up doing his own sprint. However, Modolo seems to be up for the challenge of contesting the sprints and this automatically makes him one of the favourites.

 

A power sprint definitely doesn’t suit him perfectly but on paper he is probably the fastest rider in this race. As this stage is mostly about speed, he will have a great chance if he is a decent position in the finale. The rain Mori-Ferrari-Modolo may not have an awful lot of experience in working together but on paper it is a pretty powerful combination. Modolo knows how to find his way through a hectic finale and if he is not boxed in, he will be the man to beat.

 

Giant-Shimano probably have the strongest train for this race as Nikias Arndt, Ramon Sinkeldam and Luka Mezgec provide lots of firepower. Unfortunately, Mezgec went down in a crash on stage 1 and so we were a bit uncertain about his chances in today’s stage. However, he proved to have recovered sufficiently to go for the win and he was again the protected sprinter.

 

In the end, he lost the wheel of his teammate Sinkeldam who was then allowed to do his own sprint but he still managed to come from far back to finish in the top 10. This year he has proved that he has come a long way in the pure bunch sprints and even though he is still not a pure sprinter, he can mix it up with the best in this field. With a very strong team at his side, he is likely to be delivered on the front and then he will be hard to pass.

 

Usually, Michael Matthews is not a rider for this kind of sprints but today he proved that he is in excellent condition. Despite having to brake in the finale, he managed to win the sprint for second pretty easily, clearly proving that he has recovered from the injury that forced him to miss the Tour de France.

 

However, Matthews is not well-suited to this kind of stage and so he needs to be dropped off near the front to win the stage. For this, he has one of the best teams at his disposal as Brett Lancaster and final lead-out man Mitchell Docker are some of the best in the business. Today they did a great work and if they can copy that achievement, Matthews may make amends for today’s disappointment.

 

Yesterday we had a lot of confidence in Tyler Farrar and we were pretty disappointed by the way he was sprinting. On the other hand, the American has had a great season so far and in June he was mixing it up against Greipel and Kittel.

 

In this race, he has one of the best teams at his disposal but today Steele Von Hoff and Raymond Kreder didn’t do a good job in positioning their American sprinter. However, they did really well in the Ster ZLM Toer earlier this year and if they can find back that level, Farrar may be delivered on the front. In that case, he definitely has the speed to win.

 

Ben Swift has not had an awful lot of luck in this race. In stage 1, he hit the deck and today he punctured in the finale. However, he claims to be riding well and with Edvald Boasson Hagen at his side he has a capable lead-out man. Swift is no pure sprinter but in the Giro he was sprinting better than ever before. If he still has that kind of legs, he will be a definite threat.

 

Juan Jose Lobato has not been positioning himself very well in recent races and he is significantly hampered by the fact that he is mostly on his own in the finales. On paper, however, he should be one of the fastest riders in this race and this is very important in tomorrow’s sprint. To get into position, he will probably have to spend quite a bit of energy but if he finds the right wheel he definitely has the speed to win the stage.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Lotto Belisol have three cards to play in the sprints. In stage 1, they wanted to ride for Kenny Dehaes but the Belgian crashed in the finale. Today Jonas Vangenechten was the protected sprinter but he was out of position for the sprint. On both days, youngster Boris Vallee ended up doing his own sprint and he has been doing surprisingly well. Today he finished second behind Matthews and he was almost as fast as the Australian. The result may give him the chance to sprint in tomorrow’s stage and at the moment he seems to have the speed to mix it up with the best.

 

Lotto may also give Dehaes another chance and everything depends on his recovery from the crash. If he is back at 100%, he will be a definite threat in this kind of power sprint which suits him well. With the likes of Pim Ligthart, Vallee and Vangenechten at his side, he has one of the strongest teams at his disposal and this combined with his fast speed that could be enough for Lotto to again take a sprint win with one of their fast riders.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Sacha Modolo

Other winner candidates: Luka Mezgec, Michael Matthews

Outsiders: Tyler Farrar, Ben Swift, Juan Jose Lobato

Jokers: Boris Vallee, Kenny Dehaes