The sprinters finally got their chance to do a real bunch sprint in today’s stage but they are running out of opportunities. Tomorrow offers them the final flat stage but to get the chance to go for glory they first need to control the massive 236km distance. Furthermore, the finishing circuit is a bit more hilly than the previous ones and even though the most likely outcome is another bunch sprint, we have already learnt that nothing is guaranteed in this Tour de Pologne.

 

The course

Rarely has the start of a WorldTour race been so geared towards the sprinters as this year’s Tour de Pologne and the monotony won’t be broken on the fourth day of racing. The riders have now reached the hilly south but before venturing into the mountains, they will do another flat stage as they travel from Tarnow Gemini Park in a westerly direction to the traditional finish in Katowice.

 

Again it is a very long stage as the riders will cover no less than 236km. However, the distance and the potential wind will be the only challenges as the terrain is almost completely flat. There are intermediate sprints at the 26.7, 119.2, 148.3, 161.5 and 175.5km marks and after 183.7km of racing the riders enter Katowice.

 

The stage ends with four laps of a pretty long 12.3km finishing circuit that is almost completely flat. However, there are two small climbs that will be used to hand out KOM points. On the second lap, the biggest of them will be the scene of the first KOM sprint while the second ascent comes just 1.5km from the finish and will offer points on the penultimate lap.

 

The circuit is pretty technical and has several corners interspersed with long, straight roads. The riders turn left just after the 2km to go mark to go up the small climb and then do a U-turn in a roundabout with 1km to go. From there, it is a long, straight, slightly descending road to the finish.

 

One year ago the sprinters were surprised in this finish when Taylor Phinney made a brave move and narrowly held off the sprinters, with Steele Von Hoff beating Yauheni Hutarovich in the sprint for second. In 2012, Aidis Kruopis prevailed in a bunch sprint while Marcel Kittel was the fastest in 2011. In 2010, Hutarovich took a big WorldTour win when he beat Lucas Haedo and Allan Davis.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The extreme heat that dominated the first part of the race seems to have left Poland for good and tomorrow should offer perfect conditions for a bike race. On a partly cloudy day, the sun is set to make and appearance around the time of the finish while the temperature will reach a maximum of 25 degrees.

 

Today the riders were assisted by a tailwind that made them cover the stage at an average speed of more than 47kph and tomorrow will be even windier. A moderate wind will be blowing from a northerly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind almost all day. On the finishing circuit, they will have all kind of wind directions but they will mainly have a headwind in the second part. With 3km to go, they turn into a crosswind before hitting a headwind with 2km to go. At the final turn 1km from the finish, they will get into a tailwind for the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

Going into the Tour de Pologne, the first four days were all set to be about the sprinters but a strange tactic from the sprint teams derailed their plans in stage 2 while a hailstorm provided difficult conditions for the opening stage. On paper, tomorrow should be another day for the fast finishers but history has shown that nothing is guaranteed in this race.

 

Today the sprint teams finally managed to cooperate sufficiently to set up a proper bunch sprint for the stage victory. Several teams had clearly learnt from the past mistake and there was a lot of contribution to the chase work. They were greatly aided by Omega Pharma-Quick Step who were very keen on retaining the overall lead and so kept the break on a short leash all day. The sprint teams didn’t have to kick into action before the feed zone from which just 70km remained.

 

Omega Pharma-Quick Step will definitely do their best to keep the leader’s jersey for another day but tomorrow they probably need a bit more help from an earlier point in the stage. The team also has ambitions for the GC and as Petr Vakoc is unlikely to survive the climbing in stages 5 and 6, the team also needs to save some energy for the upcoming key stages. Thomas De Gendt may be able to ride on the front for a long time but he is unlikely to control a 236km stage singlehandedly.

 

Again this means that the sprint teams need to put their tactical games aside and start to cooperate. It is definitely not an easy task to control such a long stage but there should be some genuine interest in avoiding the failure of stage 2.

 

Giant-Shimano should be most keen on a sprint finish. Today the Dutch team again proved that they have the strongest lead-out train in the race and Luka Mezgec finished second despite being hampered by a gear problem. The Slovenian clearly has a stage win in his legs and as this is his final opportunity, we expect his team to do quite a bit of work.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have lots of confidence in Michael Matthews who has impressed his sports directors by being stronger than expected. Today they did their fair share of the pace-setting and we would expect them to do so again tomorrow.

 

Lampre-Merida may also be keen to lend a hand as Sacha Modolo proved to be competitive in today’s sprint despite his recent illness and Ag2r may also believe in Yauheni Hutarovich’s chances. Lotto Belisol have also been keen to lend a hand in the finales and if one adds Omega Pharma-Quick Step, the chase is pretty powerful. With the lesson of stage 2 fresh on mind, we expect it to come down to another sprint finish.

 

The sprint teams may be assisted by the crosswind which will make the race nervous. We don’t think that the wind is strong enough to split the peloton but there is a definite risk. The GC riders all want to stay safe and this will prompt them to up the pace which will make things even harder for the escapees.

 

If it comes down to a sprint, it is important to notice that tomorrow’s stage is very long and the finishing circuit is a bit more undulating. As it is the fourth day of racing and the third stage at more than 200km, fatigue starts to play a role and endurance will definitely be a key ability for this kind of sprint. On the other hand, the finishing straight is long and slightly downhill and as there is a tailwind, it is one for the real power sprinters.

 

Luka Mezgec had probably won today’s stage if he hadn’t broken his derailleur in the finale. That prevented him from choosing his gear freely but he still managed to do a great sprint. He passed Sacha Modolo quite easily and only Theo Bos managed to come around before the line.

 

The sprint proves that Mezgec has a lot of speed in his legs and that he has improved a lot in the pure bunch sprints. It also showed that Giant-Shimano have the best lead-out train in this race as Nikias Arndt and Ramon Sinkeldam completely dominated the finale. Mezgec may have been unable to stay on their wheel but the Dutch team couldn’t have done a better job for their sprinter.

 

If they can repeat that effort in tomorrow’s stage, Mezgec has a definite advantage and at the moment, not many riders are faster than him. Those select few have to be right on his wheel to take the win. Furthermore, the longer, harder stage suits Mezgec perfectly as he is a lot stronger than the pure sprinters. The sprint itself may not be tailor-made for him but the first part of the stage is a clear advantage for him. Several factors point to Mezgec as the stage winner and he is our favourite to take the win.

 

Today Michael Matthews was significantly hampered in the sprint as his key lead-out man Mitchell Docker was involved in a crash with 35km to go and was unable to play role in the finale. This meant that he was mostly on his own in the final few kilometres but he still managed to get into a decent position and sprint to third.

 

Tomorrow’s power sprint doesn’t suit him too well but the longer, harder stage is a clear advantage for him. If Docker is back in the mix, he is probably the only rider with a lead-out train that can potentially match Giant-Shimano. Sam Bewley, Brett Lancaster and Docker have the firepower to dominate this kind of finale and if they manage to deliver Matthews on the front, the in-form Australian has the speed to win.

 

After today’s stage, it is hard not to mention Theo Bos as a potential stage winner. The Dutchman is out of form and so his team had actually decided to work for Barry Markus in the finale. However, the pair got lost and so Bos did his own sprint. Impressively, he came away with the victory.

 

What made the win even more amazing was the fact that Bos was alone in the finale. He is usually very reliant on his lead-out train but today he managed to position himself perfectly and in the sprint he was clearly the fastest.

 

Bos is perfectly suited to that kind of power sprint and this made his win less of a surprise. However, it will be hard for him to repeat it in tomorrow’s stage which is much longer. Bos is a pure sprinter who is best at the end of very easy stages. Tomorrow he is likely to be a lot more fatigued in the finale and this will be a major disadvantage. On the other hand, the power sprint suits him perfectly and if he still has the same kind of speed, no one can rule out another win for the fast Dutchman.

 

No one really knows what Ben Swift can do in the sprints as he has not yet had the chance to mix it up with the best. He crashed in stage 1 and punctured in stage 2 and today he was again involved in a crash. Luckily, he is unhurt and he is ready to give it a go in what will be the final chance for him. The long, hard stage suits him but the high-speed sprint doesn’t. However, he has been sprinting well all year and with Edvald Boasson Hagen at his side, he has a very capable lead-out man. If he can finally avoid his bad luck, tomorrow may be his day.

 

Sacha Modolo went into this race short on form and today’s sprint clearly proved that he is still not at 100%. Usually he should be one of the fastest in this field but despite being in the perfect position for the sprint, he was passed by several riders. With several faster riders, he is definitely not a favourite for tomorrow’s stage but you can never rule out the fast Italian. Today he again proved his skills in the positioning battle and the longer stage should be an advantage for him. Things need to go his way if he wants to win the stage but he definitely has an outside chance.

 

 

In the first art of the race Thor Hushovd didn’t look too great but today he bounced back with a strong showing. Having lost several positions due to the crash, he did one of the fastest sprints and took a fine fifth place. This shows that he may be about to repeat last year’s great autumn season and he seems to be in good condition after having acclimatized to the hot conditions. Tomorrow’s long, hard stage suits him really well and this could offer him a chance to win a stage for the second year in a row.

 

Finally we will select our jokers. So far Juan Jose Lobato has had no chance to sprint as he has either crashed or been boxed in the finale. Today he hit the deck again but has escaped any major injuries. In the finales, he is left to fend for himself and this has seen him be out of position for the sprints. If he manages to overcome those difficulties, however, he has the speed to win.

 

Jacopo Guarnieri crashed in stage 1 and was in a lot of pain yesterday. Now he has recovered a bit and today he was in a great position in the finale. Unfortunately, he was held up by the crash and so never got the chance to sprint. He is very unlikely to win the sprint but he has the speed to finish in the top 5.

 

Last year Taylor Phinney managed to hold off the sprinters by launching a great attack in the finale. The finishing circuit is undulating and a bit hard to control. At the same time, the stage is very long and the sprint teams will be tired in the finale. This may inspire another time trial specialist to try his hand. For Adriano Malori, the final stage is his big objective but we won’t be surprised if he tests his legs in the finale. Being the biggest engine in the entire peloton, he will be hard to catch if he gets a small gap on the finishing circuit.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Luka Mezgec

Other winner candidates: Michael Matthews, Theo Bos

Outsiders: Ben Swift, Sacha Modolo, Thor Hushovd

Jokers: Juan Jose Lobato, Jacopo Guarnieri, Adriano Malori