Until now it has all been about staying safe for the GC riders in the Tour de Pologne but now it is finally time for them to play their cards. Tomorrow’s queen stage offers the first chance for the climbers to gain time on the time triallists and they need to make the most out of their opportunities as time gaps will be small on the climbs that are not overly tough.

 

The course

After four days for the sprinters, it is finally time to find out who has a chance of winning this year’s Tour de Pologne when the race hits the mountains on the fifth day of racing. Starting in Zakopane that has traditionally hosted a stage finish, the riders will cover 190km before they reach the finish in Strbske Pleso.

 

Most of the stage will take place on Slovakian soil as the riders will descend to the border in the opening part of the race, reaching the neighbouring country after just 17.5km of racing. They will contest an intermediate sprint at the 20km mark and then get a chance to test their climbing legs on a category 2 climb at the 67.9km mark.

 

Apart from this challenge, the first part of the stage is mainly flat but things get tougher after the riders have contested two intermediate sprints at the 92.1 and 102.2km marks respectively. They now take on a long, gradual rise to reach the city of Tatranska Strba after 121.4km of racing, contesting a category 3 KOM sprint at the 117km mark.

 

The riders now go up the category 1 climb to Strbske Pleso but won’t continue all the way to the top where the finish line is located. Instead, they will do two laps of a 25.4km circuit that mainly consists of a descent and the category 1 climb. Having completed the second lap and contested the final KOM sprint, the riders will continue all the way to the top at 1313m of altitude. This additional 1.5km stretch has an average gradient of 6.2% and leads directly to the finish.

 

There is not an awful lot of information available about that final climb but the final 12km of the circuit are all uphill, meaning that it is a very long one. It is not very steep though as the maximum gradient is 5.5%. The average gradients of the final three kilometres are 4.4%, 4.2% and 5.1% with the final kilometre being the steepest. There is a steep 16% ramp just 200m from the line in the final part that will only be covered the final time up the climb.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The weather has played a key role in the first part of the Tour de Pologne but tomorrow it won't have much of an impact. The riders could not have wished better conditions for the first mountain stage as it will be a beautiful, sunny day. The temperature at the finish will reach a pleasant maximum of 19 degrees.

 

There will barely be any wind and the light breeze is set to change direction during the stage. In the first part, the riders will face an easterly wind but it will turn to a northerly direction for the finale. This means that the riders will have a combination of cross- and tailwind in the first part. On the finishing circuit, they will have a tailwind on the descent and a headwind on the climb which will make the ascent even less selective.

 

The favourites

Going into the Tour de Pologne, the GC riders knew that the first four stages was all about staying safe and avoid any dangers posed by the wind or crashes. With the dramatic hailstorm on stage 1, it proved to be a tougher affair than expected and several riders have already dropped out of contention before the race has hit the three final stages that are set to determine the GC.

 

A brief look at the profile suggests that the two climbing stages are pretty hard as the first one offers a summit finish on a category 1 climb and the second one offers several short, steep ascents. However, a closer look at the data for the climbs prove that none of the stages are very tough and it will be hard to make too much of a difference.

 

Stage 6 to Bukowina Tatrzanska is a Tour de Pologne classic and history has shown that time differences in that stage are usually counted in seconds, not in minutes. Tomorrow’s stage is unknown to most of the riders and so all the climbers go into the race with the plan to make the most of what could be their best opportunity to gain some time ahead of the final time trial.

 

The final climb may be a long one but it is definitely not very steep. In fact, the first part that will be covered thrice has a maximum gradient of just 5.5%. History shows that summit finishes on long 5% climbs usually come down to a sprint from a group that can potentially contain 30 riders and when the maximum gradient is so easy, the climb is even less selective.

 

In the final section that the riders will only do in the finale, there is a steeper section which can be used to create bigger differences but as it is pretty short and comes just 200m from the line, it may more be used to determining the stage winner than gaining time in the overall standings. In this stage, it will be very hard for the climbers to make big differences and the stage is more suited to punchy guys with a fast sprint than the riders who excel in the high mountains.

 

Nonetheless, the climbers know that they have to make the most of the opportunity and so they need to make the race as hard as possible. Rafal Majka is the local hero and he has done nothing to hide his ambition to win the race overall. In the first stages, his team has been riding as if they were the major favourites and he has definitely set his sights on this stage.

 

We expect the race to get off to a pretty fast and aggressive start as lots of riders will probably try to join the early break but we expect Tinkoff-Saxo to control things closely. The first start of the stage is pretty easy and it is definitely a manageable task to make sure that the early break is not too big or too strong.

 

Tinkoff-Saxo have a pretty strong team for this race with lots of firepower for the climbs and we expect them to ride pretty hard as soon as they hit the climbs. They may get a bit of assistance from Orica-GreenEDGE and Sky who also want to make the race as hard as possible for their captains Pieter Weening, Philip Deignan and Sebastian Henao. Belkin may have a similar plan with Robert Gesink, Lampre-Merida wants a tough race for Przemyslaw Niemiec and Cannondale wants a tough race that could suit Davide Formolo and Damiano Caruso.

 

This means that there should be plenty of interest in making this race as hard as possible and it will be impossible for the early break to stay away. On these easy climbs, drafting plays a big role and so it will also be hard for late attacks. Some of the teams may try to ride offensively to make things even tougher but these late moves are unlikely to make it to the finish.

 

Instead, it is all likely to come down to a battle between the best climbers on the final climb. Even though the likes of Majka, Formolo, Henao, Weening, Deignan and Gesink may try to attack from afar, it will be hard to make a difference on these easy slopes. We expect the attacks to create an elimination race but the most likely scenario is that a select group will sprint for the win inside the final kilometre.

 

This means that the winner is likely to be a strong climber with a fast finish who can make use of the final steep section to make a difference. Julian Arredondo fits the bill perfectly. He is definitely one of the best climbers in this race but his main asset is his explosiveness that makes him a danger man in sprints on short, steep climbs.

 

Arredondo usually suffers a bit on the longer ascents and tomorrow’s finishing climb is definitely not tailor-made for him. He would have preferred it to be a lot steeper and a bit shorter but due to the easy gradients, the length should not be a major problem. He should have no trouble staying with the best on this climb and if it comes down to a sprint on the steep ramp near the finish, no one should be able to match him.

 

This is his first race since the Giro and so his condition is a bit uncertain. However, Trek are confident in his chances to win one of the hilly stages which is his main objective this race. He crashed no less than four times in the opening stage which caused him to drop out of GC contention but he suffered no major injuries. As he is never too far from his best form, he will be hard to beat in this kind of finale.

 

Over the last few years, Damiano Caruso has had a hard time living up to his lofty promises and he has only shown flashes of the form that allowed him to grow to fame. Having been omitted from the Cannondale roster for the Tour de France, however, he has responded in a great way and seems to finally have reached his best form. He rode a great Tour of Austria where he finished third overall and in this race he seems to be riding really well too. He has been riding attentively near the front in the flat stages which indicates that he targets the GC.

 

There are definitely better climbers than Caruso in this race but not many have the kind of explosiveness that makes the Cannondale rider a danger man in tomorrow’s stage. The easy gradients should definitely be manageable for Caruso and if it comes down to an uphill sprint, he will be a definite threat.

 

It is hard to look past Rafal Majka as one of the favourites for this stage. The home favourite is definitely in great form and at the moment, nothing suggests that he is fatigued from a very hard season. However, this stage doesn’t suit him really well as the gradients are too easy for a pure climber like him to make a difference.

 

To win the stage, he needs to make the race very hard right from the beginning and make his own move on the steep ramp in the finale. In this field there are definitely more explosive riders than him but in last year’s Tour de Pologne he proved that he has a decent kick in this kind of uphill sprints. If he has the same condition he had in the final week of the Tour, he may turn out to be the strongest climber in this race and this could allow him to drop his rivals inside the final kilometre of the stage.

 

Davide Formolo has had a great start to his professional career and he has proved that he can already mix it up with the best at the WorldTour level. Having suffered from chicken pox after a promising start, he bounced back with a great showing in the Tour of Turkey and a 7th place in his first ever WorldTour race at the Tour de Suisse. In the Italian national championships, Vincenzo Nibali was unable to drop the talented youngster and based on what we now know about Nibali’s condition, this was a pretty impressive feat by Formolo.

 

This is his final WorldTour stage race of the season and by finishing second in the GP Industria, he proved that he is in great condition for his upcoming goal in the USA Pro Challenge. He would have preferred a lot harder stage as he is not exactly a sprinter. At the moment, however, he seems to be one of the strongest climbers and we won’t be surprised if he drops his rivals on the final steep ramp.

 

This may be Robert Gesink’s first stage race since his heart surgery but he already seems to be in great condition. He is building form for the Vuelta but his Belkin team has been pleasantly surprised by his high level. Like many others, he would have preferred this stage to be a lot harder but no one should underestimate Gesink in an uphill sprint. Last year he beat very fast guys in the GP Quebec to probe his solid sprinting skills. This finish is a bit harder than the one in Canada and we will definitely not be surprised if he already returns to his winning ways in Slovakian.

 

Fabio Aru is returning to competition in Poland and like many others he is building form for the Vuelta. Due to crashes, he is already out of GC contention and this means that his main goal is a stage win. We don’t expect him to be at 100% perfect of his capabilities yet and we won’t be surprised if he is a bit off the mark of the best. Furthermore, the final climb doesn’t suit him at all. On the other hand, Aru is maybe the best climber in this race and this means that he definitely needs to be taken seriously as an outsider for the stage.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Damiano Cunego has had a strange season. In the early part of the season, he seemed to be back on track after a couple of disappointing years but it all came to nothing in the Ardennes and the Giro. Now he is back in competition and he definitely didn’t get the race off to a good start as he crashed on the opening day. With a few stitches in his knee, he is slightly hampered but he still remains in GC condition. With a sprint finish on a short, steep ramp, the finale suits him perfectly and this makes him a danger man.

 

Sky’s two strong time triallists Dario Cataldo and Kanstantsin Siutsou have both lost a bit of time which means that the British team is now supporting Sebastian Henao and Philip Deignan for the GC. While the final climb doesn’t suit the latter, the former may have a chance. He showed great promise in the Giro but he still hasn’t proved what he is capable of in an uphill sprint. If he has some of the same characteristics as his cousin Sergio, however, this stage is tailor-made for him.

 

For many riders, this stage is mainly preparation for later goals but for Davide Rebellin, it is a major highlight. The veteran Italian has never been a man for the long climbs but in an uphill sprint, he is a definite threat. He will be expected to be at 100% of his capabilities and this stage could suit him. The final climb may be a bit too long for but if it comes down to an uphill sprint, he shouldn’t be too far off the mark.

 

Another rider that has a decent kick in an uphill sprint is Warren Barguil. The Frenchman is building condition for the Vuelta and has just finished his first ever high-altitude training camp. His form is a bit uncertain but one would expect to have come out of his training strongly. Last year he beat Rigoberto Uran in an uphill sprint which is definitely no mean feat, and this makes him a potential winner of tomorrow’s stage.

 

Gianluca Brambilla had a difficult first year at Omega Pharma-Quick Step but this year he has been riding really strongly. He played a key role for Rigoberto Uran in the Giro and has mostly been working as a domestique but in this race he may get his own chance. There are definitely better climbers than him but he is pretty explosive. As this is the most important set of skills in this kind of finale, he could create a surprise.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Julian Arredondo

Other winner candidates: Damiano Caruso, Rafal Majka

Outsiders: Davide Formolo, Robert Gesink, Fabio Aru

Jokers: Damiano Cunego, Sebastian Henao, Davide Rebellin, Warren Barguil, Gianluca Brambilla