As expected, the first mountain stage failed to open big time differences and the climbers now only have one chance left to gain time before the final time trial. Tomorrow’s well-known stage to Bukowina Tatrzanska should be a bit harder than today’s but history shows that it is hard to open big time gaps and so the climbers need to make the race tough right from the beginning if they want to distance the best time triallists.

 

The course

It has become a tradition for the Tour de Pologne to have the classic stage on the hilly circuit in Bukowina Tatrzanska on the penultimate day of the race. It made its debut in 2010 and since then it has been on the course every year and so it well-known by many of the riders.

 

The exact lay-out of the stage varies a bit from year to year. The 2014 edition of the stage is 174km long and brings the riders from the Bukovina Terma Hotel to the finish on the top of the Bukowina Tatrzanska climb. Having started at the start-finish area, the riders cover the first part of the main 38.4km circuit before making a small digression to head to the city of Zakopane. Here they will do three laps of a slightly hilly circuit and contest two intermediate sprints before returning to the circuit to complete it and make it back to the finish line.

 

The rest of the stage is now made up of three laps of the circuit. It consists of three climbs and their subsequent descents with no flat roads in between. The category 1 Gliczarow Gorny (5.5km, 5.7%) is the first and has a tough 21.5% section at its midpoint. Next in line is the category 1 Zab climb (4.5km, 5.8%) which reaches a maximum gradient of 11.5% along the way. The final difficulty has not been categorized but the 5.0km ascent with an average gradient of 4.4% has the finish line located at its top. The third kilometre is the hardest with an 8.1% gradient and an 11.5% maximum but the final two kilometres are much easier at 2.6% and 3.8% respectively. The finish line comes at the end of a long only slightly winding road.

 

The circuit has been used in the four most recent editions. In 2010, Bauke Mollema attacked from a long distance to open up a 7-second gap on a small group at the finish, in 2011 Daniel Martin put 1 second into his nearest chaser Wout Poels while race leader Peter Sagan lost 13 seconds, and in 2012 Sergio Henao was reeled in by Moreno Moser and Michal Kwiatkowski just on the line, with the Italian coming out triumphant. Last year Christophe Riblon made a brave attack on the final lap and made it up to the remnants of a big early break. Darwin Atapuma was able to hang onto his wheel and while the Frenchman rode himself into yellow, the Colombian took the stage win. 22 seconds later Leopold König narrowly held off Diego Ulissi who won the sprint of a 15-rider group of favourites.

 

The climbs may all have some steep sections but their average gradients are not fearsome and the final few kilometres are pretty easy. In fact, only Riblon has been able to make a bigger difference and the time gaps will definitely be a matter of seconds. It’s a day more for puncheurs than real climbers but the riders who excel on the climbs, need to gain as much time as possible ahead of the final time trial.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders did most of the stage under torrential rain but luckily things are expected to improve for tomorrow’s final battle in the mountains. Bright sunshine is expected for the entire day and the temperature in the Tatr mountains will reach a pleasant maximum of 20 degrees.

 

There will only be a light wind from a northwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a headwind on the first climb and a tailwind on the second one. In the finale, the riders turn into a crosswind for the final 3km of the stage.

 

The favourites

The climbers had all hoped that today’s finishing climb was more selective than the profile suggested but there was no such pleasant surprise. As we had predicted in yesterday’s preview, the stage came down to a sprint from a 20-rider group which means that the GC is still very close.

 

As we wrote in our overall preview of the race, everything is set to be decided in the final time trial as none of the mountain stages are very selective. Today’s stage didn’t open any time gaps between the 20 best riders and history shows that the differences are unlikely to be much bigger in tomorrow’s stage. The circuit in Bukowina Tatrzanska is well-known by most of the riders and as already said, a long-distance attack by Christophe Riblon in last year’s race is the only action that has been able to open significant gaps in a stage that is likely to be decided by seconds, not minutes.

 

Rafal Majka may have won today’s stage but he finds himself in an uncomfortable situation. Among the riders to have finished in the first group in today’s stage, Benat Intxausti, Ion Izagirre, Andrey Amador, Peter Velits, Maxime Bouet and Christophe Riblon are all known for their TT skills and the young Pole needs to distance those riders to have a chance to win the race overall.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is definitely harder than today’s and we can expect a smaller group to arrive to the bottom of the final climb. Given its history, however, the stage is unlikely to open bigger time gaps and Majka’s only chance is to make the race tough from the very beginning.

 

History shows that this terrain is very difficult to control and very often the racing has been very aggressive. We can expect a similar scenario in tomorrow’s stage. Lots of teams have lost their GC options or know that their only chance is to try to create a surprise from afar. Tactics will play a huge role in the first part of the stage as the key teams will all try to put in a rider in the early break and watch each other to make sure that their rivals fail to do so.

 

As the tactical battle will be pretty complicated, it will probably take pretty long time before the break takes off and we won’t be surprised if a very big group takes off. A few riders who are close on GC, will probably be part of that group and it would be no surprise to find some who even finished in the first group in today’s stage.

 

This will put their rivals under pressure and probably cause the pace to be fast throughout most of the day. However, we don’t give the break much of a chance to stay away. First of all, Tinkoff-Saxo are riding completely for Rafal Majka and today their 7 other riders all lost time. This means that the team have put all their eggs in one basket and need to set Majka up for another stage win and 10 important bonus seconds.

 

Today the team proved that they are one of the strongest in this race as they had all 8 riders in the front group deep into the finale. They should be strong enough to control tomorrow’s stage. In fact, it is a blessing in disguise that Petr Vakoc defended the jersey as they can now expect a bit of help from Omega Pharma-Quick Step who feel obliged to honour their position at the top of the leaderboard.

 

Lots of teams still have a rider in GC contention and it is unlikely that all of them are represented in the early break. Hence, there should be lots of interest in bringing things back together and Tinkoff-Saxo will probably find allies along the way.

 

However, they can expect lots of attacks in the finale and like today, a lot of teams won’t wait for the very end to make their move. We can expect a very dynamic race with lots of aggression but we expect Tinkoff-Saxo to keep things under control for the final lap where things will be decided by the race favourites.

 

We expect the final lap to be very aggressive with constant attacks and we expect many favourites to attack already on the first two climbs and it is impossible to make much of a difference on the final ascent. The hardest climb is the first one but it comes more than 25km from the finish. The penultimate one may be more suited to an attack but from its top, more than 12km still remain. It’s hard to stay away over that distance and the most likely scenario is that a small group will decide it on the final climb. With lots of attacks in the finale and limited domestique resources, however, it is not impossible that another “Riblon move” will be made.

 

If it comes down to a sprint on the final climb, it is worth noticing that the steep section ends 2km from the finish. The final two kilometres are much easier and so the difference has to be made from afar. If more riders are still together inside the final kilometre, it will be more about sprinting than climbing skills as the gradients are very easy.

 

With sprinting skills set to play a bigger role, it will be harder for Majka to repeat his win and he probably needs to get clear on the steep section. On the other hand, the overall stage is harder which means that fewer riders will be able to be in contention in the finale.

 

Today Majka rode very conservatively but he knows that he needs to gain time on several riders before the time trial. Tomorrow we expect him to attack on the steepest section in an attempt to open bigger time gaps. The way he won today’s sprint proves that he is still in excellent condition as he is usually not a very strong sprinter. At the moment, he seems to be pretty unrivalled when it comes to climbing skills and if he goes full gas, we doubt that anyone will be able to match him.

 

His main challenge will be to maintain his advantage all the way to the line. If more riders cooperate, it will be a tough ask. However, tactics are likely to play a role and this could work in Majka’s favour. On the other hand, time triallists like Ion Izagirre, Benat Intxausti, Andrey Amador and Peter Velits will probably go full gas to the line without looking too much back.

 

However, Majka has a pretty good chance of taking a solo win. Even if he fails to get clear, he has a chance to win the final sprint even if it will be harder than it was today. As he has several options to win the stage, he will be our stage winner pick.

 

Today Warren Barguil proved that he is in excellent condition and that he has benefited a lot from his recent altitude training camp. The youngster appeared to be at ease on the climbs, attacked several times and still had enough left in the tank to sprint to fifth.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is more about sprinting skills and compared to his rivals, Barguil is faster than most. The Giant rider seems to be one of the best climbers and will benefit from the harder stage. Last year he beat Rigoberto Uran in an uphill sprint at the Vuelta which proves that he is very strong in this kind of finishes.

 

His main challenge will be to stay calm. He likes to attack but tomorrow his best chance to win the stage probably involves riding a bit defensively. If he can follow the best riders on the final climbs, there may be a few time triallists who are keen on setting the tempo to ensure a sprint finish from a small group. In that case, he will be hard to beat.

 

The same can be said for Samuel Sanchez. The Spaniard has had a difficult first season with BMC but today he showed his best form yet by sprinting to 6th. His team even claimed that he rode the final climb conservatively which indicates that he has more left in the tank for tomorrow’s stage.

 

Sanchez loves these kind of finishes and is very strong in this kind of slightly uphill sprints. He has a vast experience and knows how to use his energy wisely in what is likely to be a very hectic finale. The combination of good legs, a fast sprint and tactics could give him his first win for his new team.

 

Movistar have lots of cards to play and find themselves in the comfortable situation that they are almost all good time triallists. Hence, they may be keen to ride for the overall which could involve riding on the front in the finale. However, another option is to use their many strong riders to attack and if they do so, it will be hard for their rivals to respond to all of them.

 

Benat Intxausti didn’t have the best Tour de France but as it is often the case, his condition seems to suddenly have come out of nowhere. Today he did a great stage and even though he attacked from afar, he still had enough left in the tank to take second. Compared to Izagirre and Amador, he is a slightly faster finisher and this will serve him well in this kind of finale. If he attacks in the finale, a combination of powerful legs and strength in numbers could give him the win.

 

The same can be said for Ion Izagirre. The Basque may not be as fast as his teammate but in a flat time trial, he is probably a bit stronger. Hence, he is probably a better candidate for the overall victory than Intxausti but when it comes to the stage win, he may have slightly less of a chance. If they attack in turns, however, luck will play a big role and the strength in numbers could equally well pay off for Izagirre.

 

Today Davide Formolo wasn’t as strong as expected but tomorrow’s harder stage should suit him better. His main disadvantage is his lack of sprinting skills which will hamper him in this kind of finale. On paper, however, he is one of the best climbers in this race and we won’t be surprise if he is the only rider who can keep up with Majka in the finale. Even though he is no great sprinter, he has a decent kick and in a hard, tactical finale, he definitely has cards to play.

 

Yesterday we made Julian Arredondo our favourite but he Colombian is apparently not yet in his best condition. Hence, it will be harder for him to win tomorrow’s tougher stage. On the other hand, there may be a regrouping in the finale and this could bring the Trek rider back into contention. If it comes down to a sprint on the easy slopes in the finale, he will be one of the favourites.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Andrey Amador and Gorka Izagirre are the third and fourth Movistar cards and even though they may not be climbing as strongly as Intxausti and Izagirre, they may take the win. If the Spanish team attacks in turns, Amador and Izagirre will make their attempts as well. Especially, Amador may be hard to catch if he gets clear in the finale and both riders are obviously in great condition.

 

Yesterday we pointed to Gianluca Brambilla as one of our jokers. Today we will do so again. After a hard first year with Omega Pharma-Quick Step, he has been riding great in 2014 and today he proved that he is still in top condition. The harder stage may not suit him too well but he is one of the fastest sprinters among the GC riders. If he is still there inside the final kilometre, he definitely has a great chance.

 

Przemyslaw Niemiec seems to be riding really well after a disappointing spring season and today he was clearly one of the strongest on the climbs. He finished 10th in a finish that didn’t suit and he should benefit from tomorrow’s harder stage. He won’t win a sprint finish but in a tactical finale he may make a solo escape.

 

Ryder Hesjedal seems to be in excellent condition and today he certainly didn’t conserve any energy. Despite riding hard on the front for a long time, he still finished 16th. Tomorrow he needs to use his strength a bit more wisely. If he does so, he is clearly strong enough to win the stage. He has a decent sprint and if he attacks with a few riders in the finale, he definitely has cards to play.

 

Defending champion Pieter Weening launched a strong attack in the finale and he is clearly riding well at the moment. Due to his aggressive spirit, he will definitely try to attack again in tomorrow’ stage. He is no fast sprinter and so will probably have to arrive at the finish on his own. With his strong legs and a tactical finale, however, that is definitely a possible scenario.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Rafal Majka

Other winner candidates: Warren Barguil, Samuel Sanchez

Outsiders: Benat Intxausti, Ion Izagirre, Davide Formolo, Julian Arredondo

Jokers: Andrey Amador, Gorka Izagirre, Gianluca Brambilla, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Ryder Hesjedal, Pieter Weening