Rafal Majka gained some time on time triallists like Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti in today’s final mountain stage but he may not have enough of a buffer for the final stage. A flat 25km course will suit the specialists and while Adriano Malori is likely to ride away with the stage win, a real thriller will determine the overall winner of the race.

 

The course

Last year the organizers introduced the novelty of holding a time trial on the final day and apparently they liked the idea. This year the final stage will again be a race against the clock and again Krakow will be the scene for the end of the race. In fact, the race has ended here every year since 2008.

 

However, there are not many similarities between the 2013 and 2014 time trials. At 37km, last year’s course was longer as the riders will only have to cover 25km in this year’s edition of the race. Furthermore, the 2013 stage was held on a point-to-point course that was pretty hilly and included some nasty climbs. This year’s stage takes place on a completely flat out-and-back course that is held entirely within the city. There are a few turns at the start and the finish but otherwise, it is made up of long, straight roads.

 

Last year Bradley Wiggins beat Fabian Cancellara by almost a minute in a true demonstration of force. Otherwise, the final stage has been one for the sprinters and it has been completely dominated by Germans. Robert Förster won the first battle in 2008 while André Greipel was the fastest in both 2009 and 2010. Marcel Kittel took a fourth stage win on the final day in 2011 while in 2012 his teammate John Degenkolb became the latest sprinter to win in Krakow.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders have had lots of rain for this year’s Tour de Pologne but it seems that they will finish the race under beautiful conditions. A sunny day in Krakow is expected and the temperature will reach a maximum of 28 degrees, making for a pretty hot day in the saddle.

 

There will be barely no wind from different directions but in the finale it will mainly come from the south. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind in the first part and a cross-tailwind on the way back to the finish. With little wind all day, the change in direction should play no role and we can expect that the early and late starters will have almost the same conditions.

 

The favourites

An amazing Rafal Majka managed to do what no one has been able to do in the past: open up bigger time gaps in the Bukowina Tatrzanska stage. His performance speaks volumes about his great condition but he needs all those seconds if he wants to win the race overall.

 

Majka was very unfortunate that the pure climbers like him all struggled a bit on the final climb and that his closest challengers are both known for their great TT skills. Benat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre have both excelled in past TTs and even though tomorrow’s course is a bit too flat to suit them perfectly, both should be able to do better than Majka in the final stage. To make things even worse, another specialist, Christophe Riblon, finished fourth on the stage, meaning that no less than three strong time triallists are within shouting distance of the overall lead.

 

The battle for the overall victory will be fierce but none of the GC riders are likely to be in contention for the stage win. Had the stage been similar to last year’s final stage, the overall candidates would have had a better chance as that course featured several climbs that made it a pretty hard affair. Tomorrow’s stage, however, is one for the really powerful riders and even though some of the GC riders are solid time triallists they will have a hard time matching the biggest specialists on this kind of course.

 

Hence, we can expect two races. While the stage winner will probably be determined pretty early in the day, the battle for the overall victory will come down to the wire late in the afternoon.

 

Luckily it seems that the weather conditions will be virtually identical and this means that it should all come down to an equal battle based on TT skills. Hence, the stage has one overwhelming favourite which will be very hard to beat on this kind of course.

 

Having progressed steadily since his professional debut, Adriano Malori has now entered the real TT elite. Last year he was already close to Tony Martin in some shorter time trials but this year he has stepped up a further notch. He kicked it all off in January when he beat Taylor Phinney in the Tour de San Luis TT but his main feat was his performance in the Tirreno-Adriatico TT. In that race, he was up against the entire elite but managed to beat Martin, Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins by a convincing margin to prove that he is now one of the very best in his favourite discipline.

 

In the past, Malori has struggled a bit on longer distances but his performance in the Italian TT championships proved that he is about to overcome that deficit too. However, his main strength is his ability on relatively short, completely flat TTs and that is what he will find in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Malori has just come back from a mid-season break but he already seems to be riding really well. He has been very visible in the first few stages, working hard to keep his team leaders protected from the wind, and yesterday he launched a very strong attack in the first mountain stage of the race. He has been climbin solidly and has been far ahead of the gruppetto on both mountainous days. Being in great condition and excelling in this kind of TTs, Malori will be very hard to beat in tomorrow’s stage and we will be very surprised if he doesn’t take a pretty comfortable victory.

 

His biggest rival is probably Kristof Vandewalle. The Belgian TT champion has had a difficult season where some kind of strange illness meant that he was unable to produce his usual power. Despite his travails, he managed to defend his national championships and now he has finally put his health issues behind him.

 

Vandewalle has always been very strong on flat, powerful courses and very often he has featured among the best. Having overcome his illness, however, he seems to have taken a further step up and probably did the time trial of his life one month ago when he took a pretty comfortable victory in the Tour of Austria time trial.

 

That stage was held on a course that is very similar to tomorrow’s and this automatically makes Vandewalle a very strong candidate. Compared to Malori, he is maybe a bit stronger in the long TTs and so would probably have preferred a longer distance. In this race he has been climbing extremely well and this suggests that he is great condition. Nonetheless, it will be hard for him to beat the Italian star on this kind of course but if anyone has the ability to do so, it is probably the Trek rider.

 

Thomas De Gendt is a hugely inconsistent rider who is amazing on his great days and very poor when he has a bad day. At his best, however, he is an excellent time triallist who is also very strong on flat, powerful courses. Despite riding really poorly in most of the race, he finished third behind Tony Martin and Chris Froome in last year’s flat Tour de France time trial which proves that he is among the very best in this discipline.

 

Whether De Gendt will feature prominently in the stage depends on his form and motivation but at the moment he seems to be riding extremely well. It may not have been visible in the results but the Belgian has been one of the best riders in this race. Every day he has been working hard on the front for Petr Vakoc and one day he almost controlled a 240km stage on his own. In the two mountain stages, he did an awful lot of work but still managed to finish pretty close to the leaders which is testament to his great condition. If he has recovered from the big workload, he could easily finish on the podium.

 

Another big specialist is former U23 world champion Anton Vorobyev. The Russian has had lots of injuries in the first part of his professional career but he has shown glimpses of his great capabilities in the TTs. Last year he finished second in both the De Panne and Coppi e Bartali TTs despite being up against some of the best riders in the world. This year he was third in the Bayern TT and took a dominant win at the Russian championships.

 

Vorobyev excels on short, flat courses and he will find this one to his liking. In the past he has had a hard time in the road races but in this race he has actually been riding really well. This suggests that he is in great condition and even though he is unlikely to beat Malori, he should be up there among the best.

 

Bob Jungels is a great time triallist and he planned to be going for the GC in a race that suited him down to the ground. Unfortunately, he crashed in one of his last training sessions and he hit the deck again in stage 1. That caused him to forget about the GC and instead he has been riding aggressively throughout the race.

 

Jungels produced an amazing ride when he finished third behind Froome and Contador in the Dauphiné TT and he has lots of top 10 finishes in time trials. However, this stage may be a bit took flat to suit him perfectly and he may come up short against the more powerful riders. With recovery playing a role, however, a podium spot is within reach.

 

Tobias Ludvigsson is getting closer to the best time triallists in the world. Early in the year he did some amazing rides in the Tour Med and the Etoile de Besseges and things suggested that a big win was approaching. Since then he has had a harder time and things haven’t been made easier by his dramatic crash in the Giro. Now he seems to be back on track and he has been climbing really well in this race. Whether he can find back his best TT legs remains to be seen but he definitely has the potential to be among the best.

 

Stephen Cummings is a bit of a wildcard in this TT. The Brit excels in short, flat TTs as he proved when he finished second behind Phinney in Dubai earlier his year. He went on to win a completely different TT in the Tour Med but since then he has had lots of injury setbacks. He is currently riding himself into form and this means that he is unlikely to be at 100%. At his best, however, he has the skills to finish on the podium in this TT.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Johan Le Bon has been pretty inconsistent in his TTs. On his best days, he has done some great rides but very often he has failed to live up to expectations. In this race, however, he has been climbing amazingly well and this suggests that he is in great condition. The course may be a bit too long to suit him perfectly but we won’t be surprised if he finished in the top 5.

 

Lasse Norman Hansen had an amazing professional debut when he finished third in the Dubai TT but since then track commitments and injuries have seen him disappear into anonymity. Now he is riding himself into form and he has been climbing solidly over the last few days. He still hasn’t proved that he can mix it up with the best over his kind of distance and he is probably still not at 100%. If he has his Dubai legs, however, he may produce another surprise.

 

Artem Ovechkin may be riding for a small pro continental team but in the past he has done great TTs on this kind of courses. He was aiming at the GC in this race but has lost too much time in the mountains and today he seemed to be saving himself for tomorrow. The Russian is unlikely to win the stage but if he can find his best legs, he could finish in the top 5.

 

Dario Cataldo is not yet in his best condition but he is a great time triallist. He would definitely have preferred a hillier course and this one is probably too flat for him to be in podium contention. However, he rarely finished too far from the top 10 in TTs and he has promised to go full gas in a quest to make amends for a disappointing race for Sky. A top 10 is definitely within reach for the strong Italian.

 

Ion Izagirre is the strongest time triallist among the GC riders and he has finished in the top 10 in almost all TTs this year. However, they have mostly been held on technical and undulating courses which is where he really excels. This stage is definitely too flat for him to be in winning contention but he will have lots of motivation as he is riding for the overall win. With recovery also playing a big role at this point of the race he may mix it up with the specialists,

 

Of course the GC battle deserves a mention. As said, Izagirre is the best time triallists among the GC riders and we expect him to take back the 22 seconds on Majka. His teammate Intxausti may be his biggest rival as the Basque is a great time triallist as well but he has done his best rides on hilly course. On the flats, Izagirre should be a bit stronger and this tips the balance in Izagirre’s favour. Christophe Riblon has an outside chance and may pass Majka if he is on a great day. However, he is unlikely to take back 17 seconds on Izagirre and so it will be hard for him to take the overall win. Majka will have a hard time on this course but did a surprisingly good TT in last year’s race. That course, however, was a lot hiller and he has never done well in this kind of TT. We expect Izagirre to take the overall win ahead of Intxausti while Majka will probably drop to third.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Adriano Malori

Other winner candidates: Kristof Vandewalle, Thomas De Gendt

Outsiders: Anton Vorobyev, Bob Jungels, Andrey Amador, Tobias Ludvigsson, Stephen Cummings

Jokers: Johan Le Bon, Lasse Norman Hansen, Artem Ovechkin, Dario Cataldo, Ion Izagirre