The classics are done and dusted and while the explosive one-day specialists take a well-deserved rest, we are about to enter the next phase on the cycling calendar: the grand tours. First up is the Giro d'Italia and the Tour de Romandie has historically offered the contenders for the Italian race a final opportunity to gauge their form. In recent years, however, the mountainous Swiss race has changed its status from a preparation race for the Giro to being the final hit-out for the Tour favourites ahead of a mid-season break as they look to add one final prestigious stage race to their palmares before they start the build-up to their summer objective.

 

It's part of the very natural and beautiful anatomy of the cycling calendar that the climbing gradually gets harder and harder in a very consistent progression over the spring months. After the sprinter's paradise at Milan-Sanremo to the cobbled classics for the heavy strongmen, the climbers get into action in the Ardennes classics that gradually get harder and harder until it all culminates with the Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

 

The one-day races give way to the grand tours where we head into the real mountains and now it is time for the pure climbers and stage race specialists to take over. The Giro d'Italia is the first major rendezvous for the grand tour riders and these days they are all very busy finalizing their preparations.

 

Held on a mountainous course close to the Giro start, the Tour de Romandie was once the preferred final warm-up race for riders looking to impress on the Italian roads. Many saw a hard week of racing followed by one week of rest as the perfect build-up to the first of the three grand tours, with the difficult terrain in the Alps in the French-speaking part of Switzerland offering great conditions for the final polishing of the form.

 

Over the last few years, that perception seems to have changed and the role of the Swiss stage race is no longer the same as it once was. Nowadays grand tour riders seem to prefer more rest ahead of the start of a three-week race and so the mountainous race does not fit into the schedule of most Giro contenders. Meanwhile, rival organizers have taken steps to compete with the Swiss and these days GC riders seem to prefer the mountains of an internationalized Giro del Trentino while sprinters head to the sunny Turkish coast for the Tour of Turkey, with the two races usually both offering better weather and more suitable dates for a final block of racing.

 

This development, however, has not taken away any prestige from the Tour de Romandie. In recent years more and more Tour de France contenders have chosen the Swiss race as the final objective of their spring campaign while the race also attracts a number of in-form classics riders all hoping to take out one last top result before they take their first short break. Nothing reflects the new status of the race better than the fact that the last three editions have all been won by the later Tour de France winner. Cadel Evans opened the trend in 2011 and since then Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome have both gone from success in Switzerland to the highest step of the podium in Paris. No Romandie winner have continued straight from Switzerland to the Giro since Andreas Klöden in 2008 and that year the German didn't even know that he was going to ride in Italy when he stepped down from the Romandie podium as his Astana team was a very late inclusion in the Giro line-up. With a very competitive line-up containing among others the reigning Tour champion, there is a great chance that we could see a fourth Romandie-Tour double in 2014.

 

It is no coincidence that the race is attractive to some of the world's most formidable stage race riders. Held in the French-speaking part of Switzerland, the race takes in the roads of the Alpine heartland and there are very few kilometres of flat roads during the six days of racing. Furthermore, organizers have mostly included both a prologue and a longer - often very hilly - time trial in the parcours and the race has all the characteristics of a mini-grand tour - without many opportunities for the sprinters. Hence, it is no surprise to see the fast men turn their back to Switzerland and the plenty of flat stages and sunny roads of Turkey - Romandie is famous for its rainy conditions - are much more attractive for the world's most speedy bike riders.

 

Furthermore, the race is a very prestigious one that every ambitious stage racer would love to add to his palmares. It was first held in 1947 to coincide with the 50th anniversary of Swiss Cycling and already in its third year it had its first famous international winner when Gino Bartali took the victory. Since then it has been won by most of cycling's greatest riders but with the tendency to peak at fewer races and its status as a preparation race, the list of winners was maybe slightly less illustrious in the 90s and early 2000s before it regained its status over the past few years. Stephen Roche is the only rider to have won the race 3 times but several riders have two wins on their palmares, with Cadel Evans being the only of the current professionals to have won the race twice.

 

This year seems to confirm recent trends. Among the Giro favourites only Ivan Basso, Rigoberto Uran, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche, Alexandre Geniez and Maxime Monfort will be on the start line  while Tour de France contenders Chris Froome, Richie Porte, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Laurens Ten Dam, Tejay van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Andrew Talansky, Simon Spilak, Yury Trofimov, Rui Costa, Benat Intxausti, Michal Kwiatkowski, Thomas Voeckler and Mathias Frank will all travel to Switzerland for a final week of racing this spring. Among the fast men only Marcel Kittel, Giacomo Nizzolo, Roberto Ferrari and Davide Appollonio see the Swiss roads as the perfect site of preparation for their Giro participation.

 

Last year Chris Froome continued his excellent run of success in the early-season stage race when he followed the tradition of his teammate Bradley Wiggins by adding Romandie as the final race to a list of stage race victories in the spring. The Brit took a dominant win in the opening mountain prologue and easily defended his lead in three stages that suited the fast finishers. In the race's queen stage, he put in one of his searing accelerations on the final climb to bridge across to Simon Spilak who had anticipated the move, and the pair worked well together to stay away in the final flat section to the finish. Froome was happy to give his companion the stage win while he extended an overall lead that he defended by taking a solid 4th in the final flat time trial. Spilak crowned a great race by taking 2nd while Rui Costa finished 3rd for the second year in a row. This year Froome will be back to defend his title and he once again faces formidable opposition from Spilak and Costa.

 

The course

Despite Romandy's difficult terrain organizers created relatively easy courses for the 2011 and 2012 editions which were both mostly decided in the time trials. Both races had few opportunities for the sprinters but with no hard mountaintop finishes, the climbers had no real opportunity to make the difference and a rather large field of riders had to battle it out in the individual efforts.

 

The reason for the easier courses may have been an attempt to persuade more Giro contenders to include the race in their schedule as most of them are reluctant to go too deep less than a week before their most important race. With the changed status, however, they bucked the trend for the 2013 edition when they again designed a harder course. The traditional short sprinter-friendly prologue was now one for the explosive climbers and the hilly time trial was replaced by one for the specialists. The climbers benefited from a much harder queen stage, meaning that the climbers and time trial experts were battling on a much more level playing field. In the end, the queen stage was changed due to bad weather but the intention clearly was to make the race tougher.

 

This year the race again seems to be harder and even though there are no summit finishes in the race, the climbers will be able to make a difference in the tough queen stage on the third day. With a flat finish to the stage, however, a group of favourites is likely to arrive together and so it will again be the final time trial that will determine the outcome of the race among the best climbers in the race. After last year's flat race against the clock, this year's course is a more mixed affair, with a tough climb mixed with lots of straight, flat roads. The rest of the race is made up of an opening prologue that again suits the specialists as the organizers have abandoned the idea of an uphill opener, and three rolling stages that suit fast finishers with a solid pair of climbing legs.

 

Prologue:

As usual, the Tour de Romandie kicks off with a prologue but last year's uphill experiment has been replaced by a much more traditional opener. On the first day, the riders will tackle a short 5.57km course in Ascona that seems to be one for the real specialists. After a very slight rise in the opening kilometre, the riders descend to the river in Ascona where they make a bending right-hand turn to follow a long, straight flat road along its shores.

 

From there it is flat all the way to the finish and only a few corners at the midpoint and some sweeping bends as they follow the road along the shores of the Maggiore Lake will offer any kind of technical challenges. Having followed the lake road, the riders end on the Piazza G. Motta very close to their point of departure.

 

With only very few corners, no climbing and long flat roads, this is a stage for the real prologue specialists. After five days of mountainous racing, the time differences will play a very little role in the final outcome of the race but it may be a day for the stronger time trialists among the race favourites to deal their rivals an early blow.

 

 

 

Stage 1:

There are no flat road stages in the Tour de Romandie and the 2014 edition will again offer plenty of hard terrain for the riders. Already on the second day of the race, the riders will go up to more than 2000m of altitude on a stage that may have little impact on the final outcome of the race but which is certainly no easy affair.

 

At 200.9km, the opening road stage from Ascona to Sion is a rather long affair that takes the riders from yesterday's starting city in a westerly direction for almost the entire stage as the riders approach the Romandie heartland. The race has a rather tough start as the first 30km are all uphill and even though the gradients are rather easy, it should set the scene for an attacking start to the race. The race briefly passes through Italy but is back on Swiss soil after 66.4km of racing

 

After a short descent, the riders go up what is maybe the hardest climb of the entire race, the category 1 Simplonpass. In fact, it is uphill all the way from the 44.5km mark to the summit 40.8km later and the climbing only gets tougher as the riders get closer to the top. The final 31km have an average gradient of 5.0% while the final 15.6km have a gradient of 6.1%.

 

The climb may create some kind of selection but it is located way too early to be used to any battle between the race favourites. From the top, 115.6km remain and they mostly consist of the descent and a long flat road to the finishing city of Sion.

 

After 163.6km of racing, the riders cross the finish line for the first time to start a lap of the 37.3km finishing circuit on the northern outskirts of the city and it is certainly no flat affair. Right from the beginning, it is all uphill as the riders go up the category 2 climb to the city of Lens. It's an 18.4km ascent with an average gradient of just 3.0% but as it has a small descent 7km from the top, the average is slightly deceptive. The first 9.1km have an average gradient of 5.0% while the final 2.6km kick up at 5.5%.

 

At the top, 17.7km remain and they consist of the fast descent and 10km of flat roads back to Sion. The finish is a bit technical as there are several corners inside the final kilometre. The riders travel via a straight road along the river until 700m from the line where they do three sharp turns in quick succession before they get onto the 400m finishing straight.

 

With a long climb near the end, this is no day for the pure sprinters but the final climb is certainly not hard enough to pose any kind of challenge for the GC contenders. Racing in Romandie is always aggressive and we can expect some late attacks on the final climb but the strongest of the fast finishers will survive the ascent. Hence, the most likely outcome is that it will be brought back together to a sprint from a reduced peloton in Sion where Luis-Leon Sanchez and Alejandro Valverde won the race's queen stages in the 2012 and 2010 editions of the race respectively.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

The second stage could be another one of the fast finishers with a solid pair of climbing legs as it is again a very hard day in the saddle but with a long descent to the finish, the sprinters will fancy their chances. The stage heads over 166.5km from the previous day's finish in Sion to Montreux on the shores of the Lake Leman. The first part is very easy as it consists of long straight, slightly descending roads for the first 70km of the race.

 

Having passed through the finishing city of Montreux, the riders now go up a category 3 climb (11.4km, 3.3%) but it's more of a long, gradual uphill drag than a real climb. They will stay at a small plateau for a few kilometres before descending to the bottom of another category 3 climb (8.2km, 3.9%). Again it's a rather easy affair that is followed by a short descent and then an uncategorized ascent (5.4km 2.7%). From there, the final 31km are almost all downhill back to Montreux.

 

The roads level out for the final 7.3km that are mostly flat but there is a short little 1.5km rise with an average gradient of 2.9% whose top comes 3.2km from the finish. From there, it's slightly downhill until the final 2km that are completely flat. Unlike the previous finish, the finale is not technical as the rider do their final left-hand turn 1.9km from the finish and from there it is a straight road along the lake all the way to the finish.

 

This stage is certainly not flat but the climbing is rather easy and the total amount of elevation gain is just 1336. Furthermore, the final climb comes far from the finish and even though a few teams may try to make things hard along the way, this could be a day for a full bunch sprint in Montreux that hasn't hosted a stage finish of the race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

Stage 3:

This year the race's queen stage is held a bit earlier than usual as the riders will already be challenged by the hardest stage on the fourth day. It takes them over 180.5km from Le Boveret on the shores of Lac Leman onto a difficult run in the mountains south of the lake and back to a finish in Aigle which is known as the home of the UCI. With four big climbs, this is a real mountain stage that has a combined total of 3512m of climbing and will offer the climbers their best chance to make a difference ahead of the final time trial.

 

The riders will get their day off to an easy start as the first 44km are almost completely flat as the riders head towards the mountainous south, crossing the finish line already after 14.6km of racing. The hostilities start when they hit the bottom of the category 1 Col des Planches (9.5km, 9.7%) which is a really tough and steep affair. There will be almost no room for recovery as the 8.3km descent leads directly to the bottom of the category 1 Champex-Lac (15km, 5.0%) which gets steeper near the top as the final 8.8km have an average gradient of 6.5%.

 

The riders now enter an easier phase as they go down the descent and head along flat valley roads back towards Aigle but instead of following the easy way they make two small digressions to go a category 1 climb on either side of the valley road.

 

First up is the Les Gilettes climb which is 9.9km long and has an average gradient of 7.4%. The descent leads to a very short stretch of flat roads before the riders hit the climb to Villars-sur-Ollon that is set to be the decisive point of the stage. It is 15km long and has an average gradient of 5.6%. The first section is the toughest as the opening 10.5km have a gradient of 6.6% but it levels out near the top.

 

From the summit, 15.5km remain and most of them are downhill. The descent ends 4.1km from the finish. And from there it is flat all the way to the finish in Aigle. The road is straight until the 1.2km to go where the riders take a sharp tight-hand turn. With 700m to go, there is another sharp turn and then the road bend gradually to the right all the way to the line. There is a short little climb inside the final 300m before it flattens out at the end.

 

This stage is certainly a very hard affair but unfortunately the final climbs seems to the easiest one and the long flat stretch to the finish means that there is a big chance that a small group will arrive at the finish. On the other hand, this is the best chance for the climbers to make a difference and so we are guaranteed to see a very aggressive race. At the same time, the accumulation of the climbs will make the final ascent even harder and it won't be impossible for a very strong rider to take a solo win. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome is a sprint from a small group of favourites but anyone with GC ambitions in this race needs to be there at the end.

 

 

Stage 4:

After the queen stage, the GC battle will be put on hold for a day when the riders tackle the final road stage of the race. The penultimate stage is a circuit race in Fribourg that sees the riders tackle 6 laps of a hilly 29km loop in the area south of the city.

 

On paper, the stage may seen to be rather flat but it would be a mistake to underestimate the terrain in this part of Switzerland. The roads are very undulating and always up and down, offering very few metres of riding on the flats.

 

The first part of the circuit consists of a rolling road from Fribourg in southwesterly direction that precedes a left-hand turn that takes the riders in an easterly direction up the main climb of the circuit. The 2.6km ascent has an average gradient of 4.9% and is followed by a short descent and then a steep uncategorized climb of 500m that averages 11.9%.

 

From the top of the latter, 9.8km remain to the finish and they are the easiest of the circuit as they take the riders down the descent and along flat roads back to the finish in Fribourg. The downhill section end 3.6km from the finish and then it's virtually flat all the way to the line. The final road has a few sweeping bends but the final one comes 800m from the line and from there it is straight to the finish.

 

In itself, the circuit is not too hard but over six laps, the amount of climbing takes its toll and in total there will be 2226 vertical metres to cover in the 173.1km stages. Especially the short, steep hill could do some damage on the legs of the fast finishers and may serve as the springboard for late attacks. We can expect an aggressive race and it is not impossible that a break will make it to the finish. A sprint finish is the most likely outcome though but the pure sprinters will have to dig deep to be there in the end.

 

 

 

Stage 5:

The Tour de Romandie has always included either an individual or a team time trial and over the last few years it has always been held on the final day of the race.  That's again the case in the 2014 edition of the race as the riders will end their race by tackling an 18.5km individual race against the clock starting and finishing in Neuchatel on the shores of the eponymous lake.

 

As is almost natural for a mountainous race, the time trials of the Tour de Romandie have usually been rather hilly but last year the organizers bucked the trend when they designed a completely flat course for the final day race against the clock. This year's stage is a much more mixed affair as it has both long, straight roads and a bit of climbing.

 

From the start, the riders along the shores of the lake on completely flat roads for 8.04km, passing the intermediate check at the 7.04km mark, but then it is time to shift into climbing mode. Turning their back to the lake, the riders go up a 2.26km climb that has an average gradient of 8.3%. At the top 8.2km remain and the first part consists of 4.47 of easy, non-technical descending. The final 3.73km take the riders along the same road that they used for the first part of the stage back to the start/finish area and there's not a single turn to challenge them in this fast section that requires lots of power.

 

As the queen stage is unlikely to produce too much of a selection between the very top contenders, time gaps are expected to be small by the time we get to the final day, and the time trial is probably the most decisive when it comes to determining the overall winner of the race. With a hard climb, it is not one for the heaviest guys but the long, straight roads mean that most of the course is made up of sections that suit the powerful riders. As technical skills will count for nothing on this course, most of the specialists will find the course to their liking and it will be hard for the pure climbers to avoid losing a bit of time on the final day. In any case, the time trial will make sure that the overall winner of the race is a versatile rider that can both climb and has excellent time trialing skills.

 

 

 

The weather

The Tour de Romandie is known for its rainy weather and it seems that there is no pleasant surprise in store for the riders in the 2014 edition of the race. Tuesday will mostly be a sunny day but it should start to rain in the evening. Hopefully, it will stay dry for all riders in the opening prologue as wet conditions for the later starters could have a massive impact on the outcome. There will only be a light wind from a southerly direction. The temperature will reach maximum of around 15 degrees.

 

Wednesday could be a very wet and cold day for the riders. At the finish in Sion, the temperature is expected to stay below the 5-degree mark and the rain may even be mixed with some snow. The wind will be light from a northwesterly direction. It should be warmer for Thursday's stage  as the temperature will reach 12 degrees but it will be another rainy day with a light wind from a westerly direction.

 

Unfortunately, the organizers could again be forced to alter the queen stage as Friday will be a very cold and wet day. The temperature in Aigle will only reach a maximum of 4 degrees, meaning that it will be showing on the climbs. There will be a very light wind from a northwesterly direction.

 

Things won't be much better for Saturday's stage which should take place under torrential rain and with a temperature of just 6 degrees. It will be more windy, with a moderate breeze blowing from a northeasterly direction. Things should finally stay dry for Sunday's time trial but it will be another cold day as the temperature will only reach a maximum of 10 degrees. It will be the windiest day of the race, with a moderate wind blowing from a northeasterly direction.

 

The favourites

Over the last few years, the time trial has been the most decisive stage of the Tour de Romandie and even though the organizers have slightly bucked the trend by deciding a bit harder courses in 2013 and 2014, the day of the race against the remains the crucial one in the six-day race. Last year's queen stage had the potential to do some real damage but as bad weather caused an alteration, it was only an extraordinary Chris Froome that prevented a group of favourites from sprinting for the stage win.

 

Even though this year's amount of climbing is still a lot harder than in 2011 and 2012, it will be hard for the climbers to make too much of a difference before the final time trial. The total elevation gain in the third stage makes it a really tough affair but the final climb is not very tough and the second half is even the easiest one. Furthermore, there's quite a bit of flat road to the finish in Aigle, meaning that it will require a big effort to stay away from a bigger group of chasers.

 

On such a long, hard day, the time gaps from the first to the last rider will be enormous but it will be harder for the top riders to separate themselves from each other. Like last year it will require a few riders to be quite a bit stronger than their rivals to get a significant gap on such an easy climb and maintain it all the way to the finish. The wind direction on the final climb and flat run-in to the finish will be of crucial importance for any potential attackers' dreams of staying away.

 

The most likely outcome is that a small group of 8-10 favourites will arrive in Aigle together and even though there are a few bonus seconds on the line, those rider will battle it on in the two time trials. The time differences in the prologue will of course be limited and so the single most decisive stage of the race will by far be the time trial even though anyone with ambitions about winning the race overall will need to stay with the best over the climbs.

 

However, there is no real reason to analyze the course too much when it comes to picking a favourite for the race. Chris Froome is the overwhelming favourite in almost every stage race he contests and it is no different for this year's Tour de Romandie. Last year he had a seamless spring campaign where he won all but one of the stage races he contested in the first half of the season and even though he has had a less than ideal 2014 campaign, nothing suggest that he is not ready to go when he rolls down the ramp for the prologue in Ascona.

 

Froome was expected to follow the same plan as he did in 2012 when he used Liege-Bastogne-Liege to prepare for Romandie. However, he was a last-minute withdrawal from that race due to a mild chest infection. This is obviously another setback for the fabulous Brit who already had to cancel his participation in Tirreno-Adriatico due to back pain and he was clearly not at his best when he returned to competition in the Volta a Catalunya and finished a very unusual 6th. Since then, however, he has had a seamless period of training, with teammate Richie Porte claiming that he is again starting to fly up the climbs, and with his fantastic showing in Oman not too far away, there is no reason to suggest that his short break from training back in March will have any impact on his current level of form.

 

Had it not been for his chest infection, it would have been hard to imagine the Brit not winning in Romandie but of course his illness raises some questions. However, both he and his Sky team seem to be pretty optimistic and with the bigger picture being the Tour de France, he would not be at the start if he was not 100% healthy. He may not be completely fit at the start of the race but with three easier days to recover, he should be back to full health by the time the race hits its decisive points on Friday and Sunday.

 

As the most versatile athlete, Froome would obviously have preferred a tougher course where he could have used a tough mountain stage to open some bigger time gaps as it will be hard for him to make too much of a difference in the queen stage. However, he is a very aggressive rider who often attacks on even the smallest rise - just recall what he did in this year's Tour of Oman and on the second stage of last year's Tour de France - and there is no doubt that he will go on the attack in Friday's stage. Last year, the queen stage was made much easier due to bad weather but he still managed to create some big gaps on a course that should actually be too easy. At his best, Froome is simply at a superior level and we won't be surprised if he drops all of his rivals in Friday's big stage.

 

Furthermore, Froome is the best time trialist among the GC riders. In last year's Tour de France, he almost beat Tony Martin on a pancake flat course and in both the Tour de Romandie and Criterium du Dauphiné, he again proved that none of his rivals can match him even in a flat time trial. Thing don't get any worse for Froome when there's a solid climb on the route and he will be one of the outstanding favourites to win the stage on the final day. In a mountainous stage race where the GC plays the major role, no rider is simply close to Froome these days and this of course makes him the overwhelming favourite to win the race.

 

 

 

It speaks volumes about the level of the Sky team in the Swiss race that Froome's biggest rival could easily turn out to be his trusted lieutenant Richie Porte. Originally, the Australian was not set to do the Swiss race as he was gearing up towards his first ever leadership role for Sky in a grand tour at the Giro but illness ruined his spring season. He abandoned both the Tirreno-Adriatico and Volta a Catalunya, leading to a reshuffling of his calendar that sees him miss the Giro to focus on again playing a support role for Froome at the Tour.

 

His new schedule now sees him follow a race programme that is identical to Froome's and the pair will now do Romandie and Dauphiné together before lining up at the start of July's big race in Leeds. This means that Porte will get very few personal opportunities in the early part of the season but last year he proved that he is so immensely strong that he can finish high in the overall standings even when riding in support of Froome.

 

Last year he finished 2nd behind his teammate in the Criterium International and the Dauphiné and in Romandie he was again in the top 10 despite being fatigued from a long, hard spring campaign. This year he arrives much fresher at the Swiss race and with the race set to be decided in the time trials, it could again be a Sky 1-2.

 

Over the last few weeks, Porte has done some quality training and he has been feeling so good that he considered going back to his original plans of doing the Giro. Due to his lack of racing, however, he will stick to his new schedule but there is little doubt that he is going very well at the moment. Like Froome, he doesn't need an awful lot of racing to reach his best condition and when he claims to be feeling good, history proves that it is a very good idea to believe in the strong Australian.

 

He returned to competition in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and put in a very disappointing performance as he was constantly seen near the back of the peloton before ultimately abandoning the race. Of course this raises some doubts about his level of form but one-day racing has never been his forte. Last year he also had poor rides in Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege but when he lined up in Romandie, he was ready to go.

 

We won't be surprised if Porte is the second best rider behind Froome but if the race was going to be decided in the mountains, we would not have had him this high on our list of favourites. With Froome being likely to use stage 3 as a very important test and Sky lining up most of the Tour de France roster, there is little doubt that Porte will be seen at the front of the peloton setting a brutal pace when Mikel Nieve has swung off and finished his job. If Froome fails to make a difference on the rather easy climb, however, Porte is very likely to make the elite selection and then it will all come down to the time trials where the internal team hierarchy plays no role.

 

Among the GC riders, Porte is probably only surpassed by Froome when it comes to TT skills and in fact he is the rider most likely to beat Froome in the two races against the clock. A short prologue is not Porte's forte but the final hilly TT suits him down to the ground. Last year he put his TT abilities on show when he finished in the top 5 in the long flat time trial of the Tour de France and he proved his skills on hilly courses when he crushed the opposition on the Col d'Eze in Paris-Nice. With Porte being in great condition, he should be right in the mix on the final day and even though it will be very difficult for him to beat Froome, it would be no surprise if it again becomes a Sky 1-2 in a major stage race.

 

Andrew Talansky has had his entire spring season revolve around the Tour de Romandie and the young American has made no secret of the fact that the Swiss race is the number one on his list of favourite events. The reason for his love affair with Romandie may be the fact that the race was the scene of his big breakthrough when he finished second in the 2012 edition of the race. That year he finished within a second of Bradley Wiggins in the final uphill time trial and he was so agonizingly close to taking a big stage race win on the WorldTour.

 

Last year the Swiss race was again his big spring goal and expectations were high after his great Paris-Nice performance where he had finished a convincing second behind the superior Porte. Talansky proved to be in red-hot condition when he took second behind Froome in the mountain prologue but fell ill later in the week and ended far down the rankings.

 

This year he has prepared specifically for the Swiss race and he has had a limited amount of racing. He was hoping to do well in Tirreno but with the entire Garmin team deliberately having had a slower start to the season, he was unable to match the best. He performed much better in Catalunya where he showed clear signs of progress and since then it has been all about preparation for Romandie and ultimately the Tour.

 

The second reason for his excitement going into the race is probably the course. As a great time trialist, Talansky has all the skills to excel on a course where the race against the clock will probably be decisive. In flat time trials, he usually comes up a bit short against the best riders but on hilly course in weeklong races, he is one of the very best. In 2012 he did that outstanding ride in Romandie and last year he was a close second in the Vail time trial at a time when he was far from his best condition while also taking second behind Porte on the Col d'Eze in Paris-Nice. Even though he has done little racing so far, history proves that he knows how to build a solid condition in training and we expect him to come out with all guns blazing. Like every other rider in this race, he is likely to find Froome unbeatable but he is one of the select few that can give the Tour champion a run for his money.

 

We openly admit that we have always regarded Tejay van Garderen's climbing skills to be too limited to make him a real contender in the WorldTour stage races and it is no wonder that his performances at the biggest level have been a pair of top 5 results in Paris-Nice which rarely features very long climb, a podium result in his breakthrough 2010 Dauphiné, and a 5th place in the 2012 Tour de France which was mostly decided on the time trials. Apart from those performances, he has always come up short against the best climbers and has been unable to challenge for the win on the WorldTour.

 

This year, however, the American has taken a massive step forward. The first signs came at the Tour of Oman where he was an impressive second behind Froome. That result could have been written down to a lack of condition for his rivals but when he backed it up with an excellent performance in the Volta a Catalunya, it was clear that it is no longer the old van Garderen. The American won the race's queen stage and finished third in a race that probably had the strongest field that we will see in a weeklong stage race in 2014 and the race was even without a time trial.

 

Admittedly, van Garderen was unable to follow Contador, Froome, Nairo Quintana, and Joaquim Rodriguez on the climbs but he was able to limit his losses so much that he could get back when the quartet slowed down. With the main favourites looking at each other, he sneaked away with Romain Bardet to take the biggest win of his career.

 

That put him right up there with the biggest favourites for the Vuelta al Pais Vasco but his performance in the Basque race was more on par with his previous level. He rode a rather anonymous race in the mountains and when he was expected to strike in the final day time trial, he was far off the pace. There are a number of possible explanations for his sudden dip in performance. The most likely one is that he paid the price for a long, hard spring season. Another one is that his levels raised their level as we approached crunch time in the classics season.

 

The real reason is probably a combination of both but two facts must have caused some concern in the BMC camp. First of all, he returned to his previous habit of going too deep to soon on the steep climb on stage one and so blew up, losing a lot more time than necessary. Secondly, his final time trial was disappointing and there is a big risk that his improved climbing has come at the cost at his time trialing skills.

 

At the end of this week, we will be a lot wiser about his skills in the race against the clock and if he can perform at his usual level, he is one of the big favourites to win the race. While he has always struggled in mountain time trials, he excels on hilly, rolling courses which was evidenced by his excellent performance in last year's Tour of California and the first time trial at the 2012 Tour. The route for the final day suits him down to the ground and he is also a solid prologue rider. His main goal is the Tour de France and Romandie is just a step along the way but he would love to take a result in his final race before the Dauphiné to get his confidence back after his disappointing showing in Pais Vasco.

 

When it comes to pure TT skills, the best GC rider behind Froome and Porte is probably Michal Kwiatkowski. The versatile Pole masters all disciplines but at the elite level he first excelled in time trials. Last year he improved his climbing a lot to suddenly become a GC contender and this year he has obviously taken another massive step forward.

 

Despite the importance of the TT and Kwiatkowski's evident skills in the discipline, two factors go against him in Romandie. First of all he has had a much harder spring season than most of his rivals and has been on form since the Challenge Mallorca. Unlike most of his GC rivals, he has all Ardennes classics in his legs and he also did the Vuelta al Pais Vasco as preparation. For him, the classics were the big objectives and Romandie is more of a dessert where he will try to make use of his good condition one final time. There is a great risk that he pays the prize for his heavy racing burden and as one of his few remaining weaknesses is his recovery, it may all be a bit too much for him.

 

Secondly, his other big weakness is his ability to handle long climbs. While he excelled on the short ascents in Strade Bianche, Algarve, the Ardennes and most of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he struggled in the Tirreno mountains and on the Pais Vasco queen stage. Even though stage 3 in Romandie is not extremely hard, there is a big chance that Kwiatkowski will be unable to follow the best. This will put him out of the running for the overall win, even before the time trial. If he is still in contention on the final day, however, he will be Froome's biggest rival.

 

After a few years of stalled progress, Simon Spilak reached his best ever level at this time of the 2013 season. After winning the GP Miguel Indurain, he went on to take 4th in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco before being the only one to follow Chris Froome in the Romandie queen stage, taking 2nd overall behind the fabulous Brit. Since then, the Slovenian has been unable to reach the same kind of condition that made him one of the big revelations of the 2013 season but in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco he indicated that he may find back to his very best. In that race he climbed solidly and was clearly one of the strongest in the queen stage and he capped it all with an excellent time trial that moved him into 4th on GC for the second year in a row.

 

Spilak struggles a bit in hot conditions and so it is no wonder that he has always done well in Romandie. In fact, he is a past winner of the race after being given the 2010 win due to Alejandro Valverde's disqualification and last year he finished second. While not being a real time trial specialist, he has improved massively in the discipline and on hilly courses he is now one of the very best. He proved those skills in Pais Vasco and he will find the course for the final day to his liking. Furthermore, he will be one of the riders who will benefit if the queen stage becomes harder than expected. He will be one of the Katusha leaders at the Tour and Romandie is the final big goal in his spring season. We have no doubt that he is firing on all cylinders and could easily finish on the podium for the third time in his career.

 

It is rare for riders to continue progressing into their late thirties but being a late newcomer to the road scene, Jean-Christophe Peraud bucks the trend. Having already finished in the Tour de France top 10, he took a massive step up in 2013 when he finished 3rd overall in Paris-Nice and almost had another Tour top 10 locked up when he crashed in the warm-up to the final time trial.

 

This year, however, he has been better than ever. Again he won the queen stage to the Mont Faron in the Tour Mediteraneen to finish 2nd overall but his real standout performance came at Tirreno-Adriatico. Against a high-level competition, he finished fourth overall and in the tough stage to Guardiagrele, he was even the second-best of the GC riders behind Contador, dropping Quintana on the steep wall to the finish. He won the Criterium International overall and he finally cracked the Vuelta al Pais Vasco podium when he used a strong final time trial to move into third.

 

Peraud is obviously one of the in-form riders at the moment and the Tour de Romandie is another race that suits him down to the ground. The climbing is not overly tough and it will mostly come down to a hilly time trial which is where he really excels. In Pais Vasco, he was in the top 5 on the final day and we won't be surprised if he matches that result in the final stage Romandie stage. Not being one of the very best TT riders, he may not be strong enough to win but another WorldTour podium is certainly within his reach.

 

Rui Costa has finished third in this race two times and this year he hopes to continue his love story with Switzerland that also includes two overall wins in the Tour de Suisse. This year, however, he has been more focused on the Ardennes classics than the Tour de Romandie and there is a chance that his form is on a decline. On the other hand, he didn't seem to time his form perfectly for the one-day races and seemed to get better as the week went on. This makes him an obvious danger in Romandie.

 

Costa never got the chance to show his form in the classics as he was hampered by so much bad luck. He looked solid at the Amstel Gold Race whose easy course doesn't suit him very well and seemed to be great in Fleche-Wallonne when a broken wheel took him out of the running. He crashed out of Liege-Bastogne-Liege but luckily he escaped any serious injuries. Unfortunately, he has injured his ligaments slightly and at the moment of writing his participation is slightly doubtful. The world champion himself, however, sounds confident and is targeting a top result in Switzerland.

 

Costa is a solid time trialist - especially on hilly courses - but he is not up there with the very best and he would obviously have preferred a tougher queen stage and a tougher course for the final race against the clock. He will try to ride aggressively in the mountains to force a selection that could again allow him to finish on the podium but with the time trials set to be decisive, an overall win in probably beyond his reach.

 

Andrew Talansky is the clear Garmin-Sharp captain but the team have another card to play. After winning the 2013 Tour of Alberta and being the best young rider in the 2013 Dauphiné, Rohan Dennis is knocking on the door for his big stage race breakthrough. Romandie has often been a good playing ground for the young talents and this year it could be Dennis' time to shine.

 

Dennis' main strengths are his excellent skills that allowed him to even beat Froome in the flat time trial at last year's Dauphiné. He is obviously one of the very best in the individual discipline and so will be a big threat on the final day. Until now, his climbing is not yet up there with the best and it will probably take a few more years before he can realistically fight with the best in the mountainous races. In Romandie, however, it will mostly come down to the time trials and if he can keep up with the best in the queen stage, he will be an obvious danger. After a slow start to the season, he showed fine condition by doing some great time trials to take second in both the Criterium International and Circuit Cycliste Sarthe - he was also second overall in the latter - and even though his limitations in the mountains were put on show in the former, he could be a threat in case of a less selective queen stage.

 

A dark horse for the race is time trial world champion Tony Martin. After a very slow start to the season that saw him struggle in the first time trials, the big German seems to be back on track. He won the hilly final time trial in Pais Vasco but what was really impressive were his performances in the road stages. He took a fabulous solo win on a very tough second stage that many riders described as much harder than expected and on the penultimate stage he made it into a very select group on a day when much more renowned climbers struggling. In that stage he was not only following wheels but was in fact the one to set the pace for much of the final climb.

 

He lines up in Romandie after playing a domestique roles in the Amstel Gold Race and Liege-Bastogne-Liege and he has made no secret of his intention to target weeklong stage races. As a past winner of Paris-Nice and podium finisher at the Tour de Suisse, he has proved that his climbing skills are good enough to mix it up with the best in that kind of events. He had similar plans in Pais Vasco but dropped his chain on stage one, thus losing all opportunities. He hopes for a bit more luck in Romandie and he will find the course to his liking. The long straights in the final time trial makes him the favourite to win that stage and he only needs to overcome the queen stage to have a shot at the overall win. In itself, the final climb will be manageable but it remains a question whether the total amount of climbing will make it too tough for a big guy like Martin. If he is still there at the end, however, Froome will have a good reason to be a bit worried.

 

Finally, we will point to Astana. The team line up a roster with a three-pronged attack that include three solid time trialists. Jakob Fuglsang is clearly the in-form rider at the moment but as his TT skills have been deteriorating over the last few years, it will be hard for him to win on this course. This leaves Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert with the most realistic podium aspirations in the Kazakh team.

 

As a great time trialist and a very good climber, Kangert has all the skills to win in Romandie but the Estonian's form is a bit of a question mark. He didn't exactly set the world on fire in the Ardennes and nothing suggests that he has the form to podium in the race. On the other hands, the classics don't really suit his non-explosive riding skills and he could easily have held something back for Romandie where he will get a rare chance to lead the team.

 

Last year he proved his versatility when he finished in the top 15 in both the Giro and Vuelta despite riding in support of Vincenzo Nibali and those performances have earned him a key role on the Astana roster for the Tour de France. He has been riding as a domestique for most of his career but has done nothing to hide his ambitions to score personal results. Last year Kangert finished 3rd in the long Giro time trial and he was 2nd behind Costa in the mountain TT in the Tour de Suisse to prove that he also handles hilly courses rather well. This puts him right up there with the best time trialists in the world and if his form is better than his Ardennes performance suggests, he will be a danger man.

 

Lieuwe Westra is less of a GC rider than Kangert but a better time trialist and we expect him to be in contention for the stage win on the final day. After a disappointing final year at Vacansoleil, he has found back much better legs since joining Astana and took a very impressive solo win on the tough final stage in Barcelona at the Volta a Catalunya. Fatigue from a hard block of training took him out of Pais Vasco but he returned to form by putting in a solid support performance in the Ardennes where he was hampered by crashes.

 

Those crashes may still hinder him in Romandie but the course should suit him. In the 2012 Paris-Nice, he proved that he has excellent climbing skills when he is on form and he is obviously one of the best time trialists in the peloton. The climbing may be a bit too tough for him and he may not yet be back at his 2012 level and so the most likely outcome is that he will finish far off the mark. However, he looms as a dark horse that the riders will need to get rid of in the high mountains.

 

***** Chris Froome

**** Richie Porte, Andrew Talansky

*** Tejay van Garderen, Michal Kwiatkowski, Simon Spilak

** Jean-Christophe Peraud, Rui Costa, Rohan Dennis, Tony Martin, Tanel Kangert, Lieuwe Westra

* Vincenzo Nibali, Mathias Frank, Tom Danielson, Nicolas Roche, Maxime Monfort, Ion Izagirre, Jakob Fuglsang, Cameron Meyer, Rafal Majka, Yury Trofimov, Rigoberto Uran, Thibaut Pinot, Jonathan Castroviejo, Stef Clement