The Tour de Romandie peloton was supposed to head straight into the mountains for the first road stage of the race but the usual bad weather in the region has forced the organizers to shorten the race. Instead of climbing the mighty Simplonpass, the riders will now only face one big climb in the stage on an unpredictable stage that is likely to come down to a sprint from a reduced peloton.

 

The course

There are no flat road stages in the Tour de Romandie and the 2014 edition will again offer plenty of hard terrain for the riders. Already on the second day of the race, the riders will go up to more than 2000m of altitude on a stage that may have little impact on the final outcome of the race but which is certainly no easy affair.

 

At 200.9km, the opening road stage from Ascona to Sion is a rather long affair that takes the riders from yesterday's starting city in a westerly direction for almost the entire stage as the riders approach the Romandie heartland. The race has a rather tough start as the first 30km are all uphill and even though the gradients are rather easy, it should set the scene for an attacking start to the race. The race briefly passes through Italy but is back on Swiss soil after 66.4km of racing

 

After a short descent, the riders go up what is maybe the hardest climb of the entire race, the category 1 Simplonpass. In fact, it is uphill all the way from the 44.5km mark to the summit 40.8km later and the climbing only gets tougher as the riders get closer to the top. The final 31km have an average gradient of 5.0% while the final 15.6km have a gradient of 6.1%.

 

The climb may create some kind of selection but it is located way too early to be used to any battle between the race favourites. From the top, 115.6km remain and they mostly consist of the descent and a long flat road to the finishing city of Sion.

 

After 163.6km of racing, the riders cross the finish line for the first time to start a lap of the 37.3km finishing circuit on the northern outskirts of the city and it is certainly no flat affair. Right from the beginning, it is all uphill as the riders go up the category 2 climb to the city of Lens. It's an 18.4km ascent with an average gradient of just 3.0% but as it has a small descent 7km from the top, the average is slightly deceptive. The first 9.1km have an average gradient of 5.0% while the final 2.6km kick up at 5.5%.

 

At the top, 17.7km remain and they consist of the fast descent and 10km of flat roads back to Sion. The finish is a bit technical as there are several corners inside the final kilometre. The riders travel via a straight road along the river until 700m from the line where they do three sharp turns in quick succession before they get onto the 400m finishing straight. Sion has often hosted the finish of much harder stages as Luis-Leon Sanchez and Alejandro Valverde won the race's queen stages in the 2012 and 2010 editions of the race respectively.

 

UPDATE:

Due to bad weather on the Simplonpass, the organizers have decided to shorten the stage, moving the start to the feed zone in Bridgerbad at the 112.4km mark and just at the bottom of the descent from the day's main climb. This means that the stage will only be 88.5km long and contain just a single category 2 climb in addition to lots of flat roads.

 

The weather

It is no wonder that the organizers have been forced to alter the course as the Tour de Romandie is set to live up to its rumour of always providing lots of rain and cold for the riders. Tomorrow will be a tough example of the weather that usually characterizes the Swiss race as the riders will face lots of rain and maybe even snow as they climb the ascent late in the stage.

 

It will be raining or showing all day and the temperature at the finish in Sion will reach a maximum of no more than 3 degrees, meaning that it will freezing on the climb. The only positive aspect of the weather is that the wind will only be very light from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind in the first part of the stage until they reach the finishing circuit where they will have a crosswind for almost the entire lap.

 

The favourites

The course modifications will of course change the nature of tomorrow's stage and provide a different race from what was expected. Due to its early location, however, the Simplonpass was never expected to be the scene of any kind of attacking or really aggressive racing but it would have made the stage a lot harder and the riders would have been significantly more fatigued when they arrived at the bottom of the final climb. With fresher legs, more riders will have a chance of surviving the final climb and the door will be open for a wider range of contenders. In short, the race goes from being long and exhausting to short and intense.

 

Nonetheless, the nature of the racing should not change too much. With the shorter stage, more riders may think that the early break will have a bigger chance and so we could be in for a rather fast start. The sprinters will all be a bit uncertain about their chances on the final climb and so it may not be immediately obvious who's going to invest a lot of energy in reeling in the early break. On paper this could open the door for a successful escape but it is hard to imagine that a sprint finish will be avoided.

 

The GC is still pretty close and Team Sky, Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Garmin-Sharp will take no risks when it comes to their overall chances in this race. With bad weather forecasted for the entire week, more climbs may be taken out of the race and this could make it dangerous to give any time to even the most innocuously looking breakaway. Many will remember how Michael Albasini won the Volta a Catalunya by gaining time in an early break and then holding onto the lead after the time gaps in the queen stage were neutralized. Hence, the race will be tightly controlled and the big teams will do their utmost to make sure that it comes down to a sprint finish. We can expect a lot of attacks on the final climb but it is hard to imagine that any of them will be successful.

 

When it comes to picking the favourites, it is all about finding out which fast finishers will survive the final climb. Had they gone up the Simplonpass, the stage would have been more selective and with the new course, we could see more riders being in contention in the finale.

 

The final climb is not difficult due to its steepness but the length will take its toll on the fast finishers. For the teams with the strongest of the fast finishers, it will be important to ride hard early on the climb to get rid of the fast finishers as the climb is hardest on the lower slopes. We could easily see one or two teams try to make the race as tough as possible as they try to get rid of the likes of Marcel Kittel.

 

There is no doubt that Kittel is the fastest rider in this race and his prologue performance also shows that he is in excellent condition as he ramps up his form for the Giro d'Italia. The gradients may not be overly tough but such a long climb, however, should be a bit too much for the strong German. We honestly can't imagine that he will be there in the end but this doesn't mean that Giant-Shimano will not have a shot at the stage win.

 

In fact our favourite to win the stage is one of the riders from the Dutch team. Last year Luka Mezgec rose to fame in this race when he took three consecutive fourth places in sprint finishes. It is no wonder that this was the scene of his big breakthrough as the race suits him perfectly and fits his characteristics very nicely.

 

Mezgec is a very fast finisher but his main strength is his ability to overcome even rather hard climbs. Hence, he is tailor-made to races like Romandie, Pais Vasco and Catalunya and this year he proved that he has taken another step up in these races when he won a massive three stage in the latter race.

 

His sprints in that event proved that he has become a lot faster than he was one year ago and it doesn't seem to have had any detrimental effect on his climbing. In last year's Tour de Romandie and Giro d'Italia, he overcame some rather tough ascents before unleashing his powerful sprint and we don't think tomorrow's final climb will be too hard for him. Had they gone over the Simplonpass, it may have been a different affair but tomorrow's stage seems to be perfectly suited to the fast Slovenian. He hasn't raced since Catalunya but as he is gearing up for the Giro, it is hard to imagine that he form is not at a high level. If he has the same turn of speed he had one month ago, he will be hard to beat if he is there in the finale.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo got his season off to a bittersweet start as he won a stage in the Tour de San Luis but broke his collarbone just a few weeks later. Since then it has been a long, hard way back to top form but by finishing 4th in the prologue, he proved that he is there just in time for his big goal at the Giro d'Italia.

 

This makes Nizzolo a danger man on a stage like tomorrow's. When he finished 2nd in last year's first stage of this race, he again proved that he climbs much better than the average sprinter and when he won two stages of the Tour of Luxembourg, he overcame some rather tough climbs as well. In the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe, he also proved that his sprinting is getting back up to his best level when he finished 2nd in the opening stage and sprinted consistently well to finish 2nd in the points classification. His condition may still be a bit uncertain, especially when it come to his climbing, but on paper he should have a great chance in a stage like tomorrow's.

 

Belkin are in Switzerland with a focus on stage wins and they have three different riders that can both sprint and climb. Among those, Moreno Hofland is the most pure sprinter but he is still much more than a traditional fast finisher. In fact, he mostly excels when the sprint comes at the end of a hard stage that has taken the sting out of the legs of the faster finishers.

 

This year he got his big breakthrough when he won a tough uphill sprint in Paris-Nice and he proved his versatile skills in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne when he finished 2nd behind Tom Boonen. Obviously he has the speed to win a stage like tomorrow's and the main question is whether he can handle tomorrow's long climb. We have some doubts but certainly won't rule out another win for the talented Dutchman.

 

Another fast finisher who climbs really well, is Juan Jose Lobato. The Movistar sprinter has taken a big step up since joining his new team and he has already taken some major results. He was fourth in Milan-Sanremo and the GP Nobili and both races required him to overcome some tough climbs.

 

Those races also showed that Lobato's finishing speed remains intact at the end of a hard race and even though he is not as fast as the best sprinters in a pure sprint, he has a chance when the battle comes after several climbs. It is no mean feat to finish fourth in a Milan-Sanremo sprint and that race also proved that he can handle the cold. Look out for the Movistar jersey if he survives the final climb.

 

If the race proves to be a tougher affair, no one can rule out another win for Michal Kwiatkowski. The Pole is never afraid of mixing it up in a sprint as he proved in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco when he finished 3rd in all but one stage. As there is no real sprinter in the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team, we wouldn't be surprised if he tries to add a few bonus seconds in tomorrow's sprint.

 

Kwiatkowski is a very fast finisher but obviously there are faster riders than him in this race. However, the final climb is a very long one and most of the fast finishers could easily be left behind. That will open the door for a rider like Kwiatkowski who could then make it two in a row.

 

That scenario will also play into the hands of Michael Albasini. The Orica-GreenEDGE rider is riding on home soil and he showed his great condition when he finished in the top 10 at Fleche Wallonne and did a good prologue today.

 

Albasini is a fast finisher but against the real sprinters he has no chance. If the race turns out to be really hard and comes down to the classics riders, he will be a danger man.

 

Finally, we will pick our jokers. Another three riders that could excel if the race becomes really tough are Paul Martens, Oscar Gatto and Anthony Roux. Roux and Martens both proved to be in excellent condition in the Ardennes and they should be able to handle tomorrow's climb. If Hofland is still there, Martens will have to sacrifice himself for his teammate but otherwise he will get his own chance. Gatto is just coming back from a break and so his condition is a bit uncertain but on paper he should be able to handle this climb. If the race becomes selective, those three riders will all have a chance in the final sprint.

 

Davide Appollonio is another good joker pick. Last year the Ag2r sprinter had a lot of health issues that prevented him from revealing the true extent of his potential but this year he has returned to full form. His main asset is his ability climb well before launching  a powerful sprint as he proved when he finished 2nd in the Roma Maxima. As he is building for the Giro, he should be climbing well and so he definitely has a chance of overcoming tomorrow's climb.

 

When it comes to jokers, it is hard not to mention Kittel. On paper the climb should be too hard for him but nowadays it is hard to rule out the strong German. In Dubai and De Panne, he proved that he has stepped up his climbing quite a lot and he did really well in today's prologue. We doubt that he will be there at the finish but when it comes to Kittel, nothing seems to be impossible.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Luka Mezgec

Other winner candidates: Giacomo Nizzolo, Moreno Hofland

Outsiders: Juan Jose Lobato, Michal Kwiatkowski, Michael Albasini

Jokers: Paul Martens, Davide Appollonio, Oscar Gatto, Anthony Roux, Marcel Kittel