After two days for the sprinters, it is time for the climbers to move into the spotlight when the Tour de Romandie peloton tackles the queen stage. With four big climbs and bad weather, it is a really tough affair but with a downhill run to the line and an easier final ascent, it may be hard for the best climbers to make much of a difference ahead of Sunday's decisive time trial.

 

The course

This year the race's queen stage is held a bit earlier than usual as the riders will already be challenged by the hardest stage on the fourth day. It takes them over 180.5km from Le Boveret on the shores of Lac Leman onto a difficult run in the mountains south of the lake and back to a finish in Aigle which is known as the home of the UCI. With four big climbs, this is a real mountain stage that has a combined total of 3512m of climbing and will offer the climbers their best chance to make a difference ahead of the final time trial.

 

The riders will get their day off to an easy start as the first 44km are almost completely flat as the riders head towards the mountainous south, crossing the finish line already after 14.6km of racing. The hostilities start when they hit the bottom of the category 1 Col des Planches (9.5km, 9.7%) which is a really tough and steep affair. There will be almost no room for recovery as the 8.3km descent leads directly to the bottom of the category 1 Champex-Lac (15km, 5.0%) which gets steeper near the top as the final 8.8km have an average gradient of 6.5%.

 

The riders now enter an easier phase as they go down the descent and head along flat valley roads back towards Aigle but instead of following the easy way they make two small digressions to go a category 1 climb on either side of the valley road.

 

First up is the Les Gilettes climb which is 9.9km long and has an average gradient of 7.4%. The descent leads to a very short stretch of flat roads before the riders hit the climb to Villars-sur-Ollon that is set to be the decisive point of the stage. It is 15km long and has an average gradient of 5.6%. The first section is the toughest as the opening 10.5km have a gradient of 6.6% but it levels out near the top.

 

From the summit, 15.5km remain and most of them are downhill. The middle section of the descent seems to be rather technical but most of it will be on a pretty straight road. It ends 4.1km from the finish. And from there it is flat all the way to the finish in Aigle. The road is straight until the 1.2km to go where the riders take a sharp tight-hand turn. With 700m to go, there is another sharp turn and then the road bend gradually to the right all the way to the line. There is a short little climb inside the final 300m before it flattens out at the end.

 

 

The weather

Again the riders were pleasantly surprised in today's stage as the forecasted rain stayed away and they reached the finish in Montreux in dry conditions. They need to cross their fingers for similar luck in tomorrow's stage as more bad weather is expected.

 

At the finish in Aigle, it should be raining all day and it is also expected to be a rather cold day. The temperature will reach a maximum of just 6 degrees, meaning that it should be freezing at the top of the climbs. Hence, the rain should fall as snow on the ascents which could force the organizers to alter the route.

 

There will only be a very light wind from a northerly direction and so the riders will have a tailwind the first part of the stage before turning into a headwind after the top of the second climb. On the final two climbs and their descents, the riders will mostly have a crosswind but there will be a headwind in the final part of the final climb. There will be a cross-tailwind on the first part of the descent and a cross-headwind in the final part of the stage.

 

The favourites

With the weather forecasts predicting snow and cold on the climbs, there is a big risk that the organizers will be forced to modify the queen stage for the second year in a row which could see them skip some of the climbs. This will have a massive impact on the final overall classification as tomorrow's stage is the only chance for the climbers to gain time on the time trialists. If the stage becomes significantly altered, it will tip the balance towards a rider like Tony Martin who would suddenly have a very big chance of winning this race overall.

 

As no decision will be made until tomorrow and nothing has emerged about potential plan Bs from the organizers, we will base this analysis on the presumption that things go on as planned. If that's the case, the cold and wet condition will make the race a lot tougher and narrow down the list of potential contenders. Furthermore, it will make the descents more important and could prompt a few riders to take it easy to avoid any risks so close to more important objectives.

 

First of all, it is worth pointing out that it will be difficult for an early breakaway to stay away. As it is often the case, we can expect a rather aggressive start to the stage but with an easy opening part, it will be possible for the big teams to make sure that the break that ultimately goes clear is neither too strong nor too big.

 

This is the only chance for the climbers in this race and even though it doesn't finish on a climb, a lot of riders will have marked this out as the day to give it a go. Furthermore, they all know that they need to get rid of a guy like Martin and so there should be a lot of interest in making the race as hard as possible. This will only make it even more difficult for the escapees to stay away as we can expect teams like Sky, Tinkoff-Saxo, Lampre-Merida, FDJ and Astana to ride hard on the climbs. That should be enough to bring the early break back and control late attacks and we can expect it all to come down to a battle between the favourites on the final climb.

 

Of course the dark horse is the weather as it increases the likelihood that a break will survive. Many will remember how the peloton faced to chase down Daniele Ratto in the very cold 2013 Vuelta stage to Andorra but with plenty of teams interested in the stage win, we are unlikely to see a repeat in tomorrow's stage.

 

The final climb is not overly hard and very often it is hard to make a difference on a 5% climb. The first 10km are a bit harder and the best climbers will probably have to make a difference in the first part. Furthermore, the final four flat kilometres and the non-technical part of the descent and the final flat kilometres will benefit a chasing group and so there is a big chance that a small group of favourites will arrive at the finish together.

 

It will require a very strong rider to arrive solo at the finish but the race has an extraordinary athlete in its line-up. Chris Froome may have entered this race with a mild chest infection but he doesn't seem to be too hampered by his illness and appears to be riding really well.

 

His first test came in the prologue which was held on a short, flat course that didn't do him many favours. He posted a slow time at the intermediate check but proved his strength when he moved up a lot by the time he hit the headwind in the end. On the climbs, he has seemed to be at ease and Richie Porte appears to have had a good reason to pointing out that Froome is again flying in training.

 

Froome himself claims that his numbers in training are either at the same level as or better than they were at this time 12 months ago and at that time he dropped all his rivals to bridge across to Simon Spilak on another rather easy climb in the queen stage. As Vincenzo Nibali is not yet at his best level, he should be several levels above his rivals in this field and even though the final climb is not very difficult, there is a good chance that he will ride away from everyone else. He is no bad descender and obviously a great time trialist and so has a very good chance of staying away to the finish should he make it over the top as the lone leader.

 

For this to happen, however, he needs the race to be as tough as possible and he will use his Sky team to make that happen. However, the usually flawless British team is clearly not firing on all cylinders at the moment. Porte is far from his best and Mikel Nieve doesn't seem to be riding too well either. David Lopez is his usual strong self but Froome could find himself isolated rather early. However, there will be a lot of teams with a similar plan and so there should be plenty of interest in making this race hard.

 

Even if Froome is unable to take a solo win, he has a chance. The Brit is no bad sprinter and even though there are certainly faster finishers among the GC contenders, he will have his opportunities in a sprint finish if the final group has the right composition. However, his best chance is of course a solo win and as everything suggests that he is back to full strength, he is our favourite to take the win.

 

If it comes down to a sprint from a small group of favourites, Rui Costa will be an obvious winner candidate. The world champion is still in search of his first win in the rainbow jersey and he seems to be riding really well at the moment. His big targets were the Ardennes classics but a lot of bad luck denied him the chance to show hi condition. However, he seemed to be at ease in the final two races and did solidly in Amstel as well.

 

He is still suffering from shoulder pain after his crash in Liege but it was a clear indication of improvement that he asked his team to up the pace to make stage one as hard as possible and he did well by taking seventh in the final sprint. He is no pure climber but the easy final ascent will give him a bigger chance to make it over the top with the best. He is a fast sprinter and an excellent descender and so is well suited to the finish. He seems to have the condition at the moment and so tomorrow could be the day when he breaks the curse of the rainbow jersey.

 

Another rider who would have a chance in case of a sprint finish, is Rigoberto Uran. The Colombian is ramping up his condition for the Giro and even though he has been hampered by some health issues, things seem to be going well. He did an excellent performance in the prologue which clearly indicates that he is close to his peak and this should put him right up there with the best riders tomorrow.

 

Uran is a fast sprinter and would be an obvious winner candidate if it comes down to a sprint. If Michal Kwiatkowski is there, he will of course support his teammate but if the Pole has fallen behind, he could get his own chance. As he is no great time trialist, there is a chance that he will have to wait for Kwiatkowski and Martin if they are not too far behind at the top but based on the experience from Tirreno, he may get carte blanch to chase his own success.

 

Vincenzo Nibali has had a slow start to his season and he failed to reach his best condition for his first big goal at Liege-Bastogne-Liege. However, he seems to be on the rise and now the form seems to be arriving, just a little bit too late for the Italian. He did an excellent prologue that was much better than expected and he put in a really strong attack in the finale of stage one.

 

If Nibali is there at the top of the final climb, there is little doubt that he will try to attack on the descent. Even though riders like Costa and Uran are also great descenders, Nibali is a level above the rest and if the road are wet, there is a great chance that he will get away in the technical section. He still needs to keep his advantage in the final flat section but at the moment he seems to be strong enough to finish it off. We doubt that he is strong enough to follow Froome on the climb but if he is there at the top, the Brit will have to stay aware and prepare himself for lots of risks on the descent.

 

The Tour de Romandie is Andrew Talansky's big spring target and the American claims that he is in great condition. His prologue didn't indicate so but a short, flat course has never been the favourite for the versatile American. Until now he has appeared to be at ease on the climbs and he could very well make it over the top with the best riders. As he proved in last year's Paris-Nice, he is pretty fast in a sprint and so will be an obvious danger in case of a small group arriving together at the finish.

 

The fastest sprinter among the GC riders is Michal Kwiatkowski and if he makes it over the top with the best, he will be the big favourite. He is not only a fast finisher but also a great descender and the finale suits him really well. However, he has always struggled on the long climbs and his hard schedule finally seems to catch up with him. On stage 1, he was clearly suffering on the ascents and he admitted to having had bad legs. His recovery is another weakness and he rarely gets better as a stage race goes on. To follow the best on a big mountain stage, he needs to be at the top of his game but we doubt that he is still firing on all cylinders. Due to his fast sprint, however, he is of course an outsider for the stage win.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Nicolas Roche is building form for the Giro and he seems to be riding well already now. In last year's Vuelta he proved that his climbing has improved a lot and if he is back at that level, he could stay with the best in tomorrow's stage. He has a fast sprint and so will be a danger man in case of a sprint finish.

 

Rafal Majka, Simon Spilak and Thibaut Pinot all seem to be doing excellently well at the moment and we would be surprised if they are not among the very best tomorrow. However, a sprint finish is not their preferred outcome as there are certainly faster riders than them. If a small group is together after the descent, however, it may be unclear who has to take the responsibility and this could open the door for attacks. Those three riders all have the aggressive mindset to give it a try and this could allow them to take a big solo win in Aigle.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candiates: Rui Costa, Rigoberto Uran

Outsiders: Vincenzo Nibali, Andrew Talansky, Michal Kwiatkowski

Jokers: Nicolas Roche, Thibaut Pinot, Rafal Majka, Simon Spilak