The GC riders got safely through today's tricky stage and all is status quo between the top contenders ahead of the decisive 18.5km time trial in Neuchatel. While Tony Martin will try to repeat his win from last year's race against the clock, Chris Froome and Simon Spilak will be involved in a fascinating duel for the overall victory.

 

The course

The Tour de Romandie has always included either an individual or a team time trial and over the last few years it has always been held on the final day of the race.  That's again the case in the 2014 edition of the race as the riders will end their race by tackling an 18.5km individual race against the clock starting and finishing in Neuchatel on the shores of the eponymous lake.

 

As is almost natural for a mountainous race, the time trials of the Tour de Romandie have usually been rather hilly but last year the organizers bucked the trend when they designed a completely flat course for the final day race against the clock. This year's stage is a much more mixed affair as it has both long, straight roads and a bit of climbing.

 

From the start, the riders along the shores of the lake on completely flat roads for 8.04km, passing the intermediate check at the 7.04km mark, but then it is time to shift into climbing mode. Turning their back to the lake, the riders go up a 2.26km climb that has an average gradient of 8.3%. At the top 8.2km remain and the first part consists of 4.47 of easy, non-technical descending. The final 3.73km take the riders along the same road that they used for the first part of the stage back to the start/finish area and there's not a single turn to challenge them in this fast section that requires lots of power.

 

 

 

The weather

After so many days of riding in the rain, the riders will end the Tour de Romandie with a good memory as spring seems to finally have arrived in Switzerland. The final time trial will take place under beautiful sunshine but with the temperatures only reaching 12 degrees, it will be a rather could affair.

 

Like today, it will be a bit more windy that it was at the start of the race as there will be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction. This means that the riders will have a headwind in the first part until they hit the bottom of the climb where they turn into a headwind. The final part of the stage will be extremely fast as it will be all downhill and flat while the riders enjoy a direct tailwind. The wind may be decreasing a bit as the day goes on and this could favour the later starters but the conditions should be pretty similar for all riders.

 

The favourites

The final time trial provides a great showdown in a lot of different ways. First of all, there's the obvious close battle between Chris Froome and Simon Spilak for the overall victory and the fight for the second spot on the podium will be equally intense as mere seconds separate Rui Costa in third and Jakob Fuglsang in 7th.

 

However, the battle for the stage win will also be extremely exciting as the interesting mix between long, straight roads and a rather steep climb will open the door for a lot of different contenders. The long flat straights will rule out the climbers but the climb is so difficult that the pure specialists won't have a chance either. It will take a rather complete rider to emerge triumphant in this stage.

 

We expect the stage to come down to a close battle between Tony Martin and Chris Froome that will both find different sections of the course to their liking, and it is hard to predict who will come out on top. Martin will benefit from the flat straights where he came make use of his immense power but Froome is likely to be flying up the climb and he is not bad on the straight either.

 

We will put our money on Martin though. Most of the time will be spend on the flats and as there are no turns to break his monotonous rhythm in the first and last section of the course, Martin will be unrivalled in those parts. The big German has proved time after time that he is almost impossible to beat in long, flat time trials.

 

Martin has had a slow start to his season and he failed to win his first three time trials in Dubai, Algarve and Tirreno-Adriatico and he was clearly not at his best in the first part of the year. He hit his peak condition in time for the Vuelta al Pais Vasco where he climbed impressively strong and he ended the race by winning the final time trial despite it being held on a very hilly and difficult course that didn't do him many favours.

 

Martin failed to win the prologue but that wasn't much of a surprise as he has never been a prologue specialist and has won very few short time trials in his career. Tomorrow's longer stage suits him much better and with his climbing legs firing on all cylindres, he won't be too much at a disadvantage on the climbs.

 

This year he seems to be climbing much better than he has done over the past two seasons and he still hasn't proved that he is back at full strength in the time trials. This raises a few questions ahead of tomorrow's stage but he is clearly still in excellent condition. It was not a big surprise that the queen stage became too much for him and when he realized that he couldn't keep up with the best, he took it easy to stay fresh for Sunday's stage.

 

He hit the deck in the finale of today's stage which certainly wasn't the best preparation for the strong German but he seemed to be unhurt and should be ready for tomorrow's battle. With several long straights where he can really put down the hammer, it is hard to look beyond Martin as the favourite.

 

However, he can expect a fierce challenge from Froome. If the Brit had been at his best, we would in fact have had him as our favourite. At his best, Froome is an excellent time trialist and he won the final hilly time trial of last year's Tour de France.

 

His most impressive performance, however, came in the first flat time trial where Martin only managed to beat him by 12 seconds on a course that suited the German perfectly. If Froome had been at the same level as he was back then, the climb would have tipped the balance towards the Brit.

 

However, the Brit is clearly not firing on all cylinders yet. He may have performed well in the queen stage but it was certainly not the dominant Froome that crushed the opposition at the Tour de France. He claims to be more or less at the same level as he was 12 months ago and back then he was firmly beaten by Martin in the Romandie time trial. This year the climb will give him a much bigger chance to turn around the tables but with most of the stage really favouring Martin, we expect him to be a close second.

 

Rohan Dennis has had some frustrating time trials this year as he has finished 2nd thrice in a row, most recently in the Romandie prologue. The Australian had hoped to be in GC contention in this race but it was not a big surprise that the amount of climbing was a bit too much in yesterday's queen stage. He has now readjusted his focus and has his eyes fully set on tomorrow's time trial.

 

At his best, Dennis is an excellent time trials and last year he finished 2nd in the Duaphiné time trial behind Martin but ahead of Froome. He is both a solid climb and excels on the long, flat stretches and he will find the mixed course to his liking. Being in great condition at the moment, the Australian could upset the two big favourites.

 

Simon Spilak is evidently the in-form rider at the moment. In the queen stage, he did what is almost impossible to do when he rejoined Froome after the Tour champion had ridden away from him. Tomorrow he will do his utmost to take his second overall victory and even though the odds are against him, we expect him to put in a very strong ride.

 

Spilak is no TT specialist but when in form he actually performs rather well, even on flat courses. One year ago he finished 5th on a pancake flat course in a field loaded with specialists and Froome only managed to beat him by 7 seconds. Less than a month ago he was fourth in the Pais Vasco time trial and now he is obviously a lot stronger than he was back then. The combination of flats and climbs should suit him well and we wouldn't be surprised to see him battle it out for the stage win.

 

Movistar have a lot of different cards to play in tomorrow's stage and in fact four of their riders could mix it up with the best. Their best card, however, seems to be Ion Izagirre. The Spaniard has always been a solid time trialist but over the last year, he has taken a massive step up.

 

The Basque mostly excels on hilly courses and so will benefit from the climb on tomorrow's route but would have preferred fewer flat stretches. On the other hand, he is obviously in great condition and is likely to finish this race in the top 10. In the Basque Country, he was 7th in the time trial and tomorrow he could easily do even better.

 

For Andrew Talansky, this race is the big spring target and the American was hugely disappointed when a dropped chain in the queen stage saw him drop out of podium contention. However, he still has a top 10 place within reach and he will do his utmost to make amends in tomorrow's stage.

 

Talansky is a great time trialist and his first great results as a professional came in the individual discipline. As he has improved his climbing, however, he seems to have slowed down a bit in the TTs but especially in hilly courses he still performs rather well. A win is probably beyond his reach but he should be up there with the best.

 

If he had performed at his usual level, we would have made Jonathan Castroviejo one of our great favourites in this stage. The Spaniard is an excellent time trialist and this year he has been climbing better than ever before. On paper, this makes him a perfect fit with this course.

 

However, he has performed very poorly in the time trials this year and it seems that his improved climbing has come at the expense of his time trialing. Tomorrow's hillier course should suit him better though and so there is still a chance that he will mix it up with the best.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Movistar have another two top candidates as Benat Intxausti and Jesus Herrada are both sitting in the top 10 overall and are great time trialists as well. The former has done some excellent TTs in past Vueltas al Pais Vasco and generally excels on hilly courses. This year he has had a slow start to his season but it has so often been the case for the Spaniard, his shape has come out of nowhere for this race. The long flat sections will be a disadvantage for him but if he can find back his best legs, he has a definite shot at the overall podium.

 

His teammate Herrada has taken a massive step up this year and these days he is performing better than ever before. He has always been a solid time trialist but never been among the very best. Howeverm his 17th place in the prologue suggests that he has not only improved his climbing but is now also a lot better on the flats. He won't be in contention for the win but we wouldn't be surprised if he makes it into the top 10 again.

 

Stef Clement is one of the few specialists who has a chance on this course as the Dutchman is also a solid climb who almost finished in the top 10 at last year's Dauphine. This year we have been a bit disappointed by his TT performances but he seems to be riding really well at the moment. He didn't excel in the prologue but he has never been a prologue specialist and tomorrow's longer course should suit him a lot better. In the past, he has done some pretty good mountain time trials and he knows how to pace himself on a climb. This should put him in contention in tomorrow's stage.

 

Vincenzo Nibali is clearly not yet in peak condition and it has mostly been a spring to forget for the Italian. However, he could end it all on a reasonable note by taking a podium spot in Romandie. His form is clearly on the rise as he proved in the queen stage. In the past, we would not have expected too much from him in a time trial but over the last few years his clear focus has paid off and he is now a lot stronger, even on flat courses. He did an excellent prologue and the climb on tomorrow's course should suit him well. He won't win the stage but he could very well end on the overall podium.

 

Riccardo Zoidl has just come back from a broken collarbone but is already riding at a very high level and is clearly ready for his Giro debut. The Austrian is a very versatile rider who can both climb and time trial. He proved his skills in the latter discipline when he finished 2nd in the Tour Med TT. That stage, however, was held on a much hillier course and tomorrow's route could have too many flat straights to suit him perfectly. He won't win the stage but with his fine condition we wouldn't be surprised to see him end in the top 10.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Tony Martin

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Rohan Dennis

Outsiders: Simon Spilak, Ion Izagirre, Andrew Talansky, Jonathan Castroviejo

Jokers: Benat Intxausti, Stef Clement, Vincenzo Nibali, Jesus Herrada, Riccardo Zoidl