While the three biggest Tour favourites and several of their biggest rivals finish off their final preparation race for the world's biggest race at the Dauphiné, most of the remaining GC riders for this year's edition of La Grande Boucle are ready to take on their last challenge prior to the  big objective. Formerly known as the world's most prestigious week-long stage race, the Tour de Suisse has lost some of its  appeal the world's biggest stars but the 9-day race remains an outstanding event that every rider would love to add to his palmares. Once again the Swiss race has lost out to the Dauphiné in the battle for the most star-studded line-up but a challenging, mountainous course will guarantee a week of perfect Tour preparation and a fascinating battle for the win in the longest WorldTour stage race outside the grand tour category.

 

Switzerland plays a very special role in the anatomy of the international cycling calender. While the Alpine country is way too small to host a grand tour, it has built up a reputation as a formidable place to prepare for a three-week race. Traditionally, the country's two biggest stage races, the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse, have been preparation races for the Giro d'Italia and the Tour de France respectively, as they are both held close to the start of the grand tours and offer the perfect mountainous terrain for the riders to test their legs.

 

However, that position has come under threat in recent years and both Swiss stage races are no longer seen as the best event to warm up for the Giro and the Tour. While the Tour de Romandie has lost the battle against the Giro del Trentino and has changed its role to become the final prestigious stage race in the early season for the Tour riders, the national tour has been involved in a tight fight with the Criterium du Dauphiné for the role as the best preparation for the Tour.

 

The French race appears to have come out triumphant and most of the biggest Tour stars have preferred to head to the French Alps during the month of June. That does, however, not change the fact that the Tour contenders are usually split between the two races and despite the fact that the  bookmakers' 3 biggest favourites for the Tour (Froome, Contador and Nibali) are all battling it out on French soil these days, the Swiss race is once again able to present a solid line-up of expected Tour protagonists.

 

The data, however, makes it evident that the Dauphiné is now the preferred event by most of the biggest stars. The last Tour winner to prepare the world's biggest race in Switzerland was Lance Armstrong who deviated from his usual schedule in 2001 by racing (and winning) the Swiss event. The American only returned to the Swiss event after his comeback in 2010, and since 2001 the Tour winner has always raced the Dauphiné to prepare for July's race. In 2012 Thibaut Pinot finished 10th in the Tour and was the best rider who had prepared his race in Switzerland while last year Roman Kreuziger in 5th was the highest placed rider to have raced in Switzerland.

 

It is, however, a question of individual preference, and while a few riders always prepare at the same event, most vary their choice from year to year. Alberto Contador and Team Sky always head to France while riders like the Schleck brothers and Bauke Mollema prefer the Tour de Suisse. The race even attracts some of the best French riders like Thibaut Pinot who traditionally wants to escape the media pressure in his home country.

 

The main problem for the Swiss event is of course is geographical location. It has few chances to test out parts of the Tour route - something the Dauphiné has exploited heavily since ASO took over the event in 2010. On the other hand, the race is held one week closer to the Tour start than the Dauphiné and the riders have different preferences as to the timing of their final big preparation race. This year the Dauphiné organizers have decided not to include important parts of the Tour route in their course and so the two races are more on an equal playing field in 2014.

 

However, the organizers have also contributed to their fate themselves. The 2009 and 2010 courses were way too easy, offering very few mountain stages for the riders to test their legs, and some criticized the 2009 edition for being designed with the sole purpose of facilitating an overall win by the national star, Fabian Cancellara. In recent years, the organizers have again included more mountain stages, and last year's route was harder than it has been for years. This year the course may again be slightly easier but the final three stages should offer some exciting racing and solid preparation for the Tour.

 

The race still enjoys a very special position on the cycling calendar as it is the longest race on the WorldTour outside the grand tour category. It is one day longer than the Dauphiné and was formerly known as the fourth most prestigious stage race in the world. While that position has now been lost, its role as a national tour adds to its position, and it is still race that all riders would love to add to their palmares.

 

One of the reasons for this prestige is the combination of its history and its difficulty.First held in 1933, it is older than the Dauphiné and as it is held in one of the most mountainous part of Europe, it is no wonder that it is definitely one of the hardest races on the calendar. Even though it's list of winners is impressive, however, the honours roll may lack the impressive depth of its French counterpart. Pasquale Fornara tops the list with 4 victories while two of the local heroes, Ferdinand Kübler and Hugo Koblet have won three races each.

 

In addition to its role as a preparation race, the race has a formidable ability to attract riders from the Giro. It may be due to the extra week of recovery but while the Dauphiné has only seen a few high-profile - and very successful - Giro-Dauphiné doubles, the Tour de Suisse usually has a number of Giro contenders on their start list. This year is no exception as 5th placed Domenico Pozzovivo and 8th placed Cadel Evans are two riders from the Giro top 10 who will also be at the start line in Switzerland.

 

The race still has the upper hand over the Dauphiné in one aspect. While the Dauphiné is held in a region with very few flat roads and so finds it very difficult to attract the sprinters, the Tour de Suisse is obliged to visit all parts of Switzerland which are not all mountainous. That means that the race usually has plenty of opportunities for some of the fast men. The hilly nature of the country and the organizers' preference for difficult finishing circuits mean that the pure sprinters have few chances in the race but the tougher bunch kick experts and classics speacialist always find plenty of stages to their likings. It is no wonder that Peter Sagan won two stages in 2011, four in 2012 and another two last year, and this year's again offers several opportunities for the versatile Slovakian who will have to contend with an impressive field of sprinters that includes the likes of Mark Cavendish, Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Matthew Goss, Bryan Coquard, Gerald Ciolek and Sacha Modolo.

 

Last year Rui Costa continued his love story with Switzerland when he won the race for the second year in a row. Having done a solid prologue and made an important split on a descent in stage 3, the Portuguese showed his strength when he won the race's queen stage in a sprint finish from a three-rider group. Two days later he dealt race leader in Mathias Frank the decisive blow in the final-day mountain time trial, crushing the opposition and winning the race overall with a margin of more than a minute to second-placed Bauke Mollema and third-placed Roman Kreuziger. This year Costa will be back in a quest to write himself into history as the first rider to win the race thrice in a row but will again have to beat Mollema and Kreuziger who both aim to do better than they did 12 months ago.

 

The course

As claimed above, the organizers have tried to make the courses a bit tougher after a few years where a lack of difficulty made the races less spectacular. This year the race may not be quite as tough as it was one year ago - mostly because there is no mountain time trial - but like in 2013 the stage offers three mountain stages of which two have summit finishes.

 

Otherwise the race is pretty traditional. The race usually kicks off with a short time trial that is often a rather hilly affair, and always has a long time trial that is either rolling or a mountain time trial. Both elements feature in this year race as the race opens with a pretty difficult race against the clock and has a rolling time trial on the seventh day but it is a bit shorter than it has traditionally been. Very often the time trial has taken place on the final day but this year the climbers have the upper hand in the sense that they will have a chance to take back time in a very hard final weekend that offers two summit finishes. The remaining three stages are for the sprinters but as it is always the case in the Tour de Suisse, many of them feature small climbs near the end that will make it tough for the fast finishers.

 

Stage 1:

Since 2000, only four editions of the race haven't started with a short time trial and the last time the race kicked off with a road stage was back in 2008 when Oscar Freire won a sprint from a reduced peloton to take the first leader's jersey. This year the opening stage is again a time trial and the organizers have followed their tradition of including a pretty difficult climb and a very technical descent in the route. In recent years the race has often started with the same stage in Lugano which mostly consisted of a climb and a descent. Last year the opening stage was a pretty traditional time trial while this year's opening stage is a bit of a mix with both flat sections, climbing and descending.

 

The entire 9.4km stage takes place in the city of Bellinzona and the first part is pretty straightforward as it travels along flat roads until it reaches a turning point in the southern part of the city. A few corners, mainly in the first part, will break the rhythm but it should mainly suit the big specialists.

 

Instead of going straight back to the start-finish area, the riders will turn right after 4.4km of racing and soon after they will head up a pretty difficult climb. It's 2.7km long and has an average gradient of 5.7%, with the intermediate time check being taken on the lower slopes at the 5.7km mark. The final 2km consist of a pretty technical descent with a number of switchbacks and only the final part is slightly easier. It's downhill all the way to the finish.

 

The mixed nature of the stage means that it is open for a number of different riders. The previous time trial in Lugano has less flat but Fabian Cancellara still managed to win in twice, making use of his exceptional descending skills and powerful climbing to beat his rivals. In 2012, however, Peter Sagan beat the home favourite as the hilly course and technical descent suited the Slovakian down to the ground. On this year's course, the first part will suit the likes of Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara perfectly while second half should allow a rider like Sagan to shine. In general, the stage should suit the punchy classics riders. The climbers will relish the fact that the stage is not entirely flat and most of them should be able to limit their losses in this kind of stage.

 

Bellinzona last hosted a stage in 2004 when Paolo Bettini took a solo win.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

While many stage races save the hillier stages to late in the race, the Tour de Suisse has often included a mountain stage already 24 hours after the opening time trial. In 2014 the riders will again head straight into the mountains but unlike the last few years, it won't be a mountaintop finish on the second day. The stage includes some very difficult climbing, with three mountains at more than 2000m of altitude but the second half is mostly one long descent, meaning that the stage is unlikely to play any role in the GC.

 

The stage is 181.8km long and brings the riders from the start in yesterday's finishing city of Bellinzona to Sarnen at the other side of the Alps. After a flat start the riders go up the big HC category Goothardpass (46.2km, 3.8%) which is a long steady climb. The average gradient is deceptive as the final 13.8km have an average gradient of 6.8%, making it a very tough affair.

 

There won't be much time to recover on the short subsequent descent as the riders go straight up the category HC Furkapass (11.9km, 7.3%) whose top at 2416m above sea level is the highest point of the race. Another short descent leads to the bottom of the category 2 Grimselpass (5.3km, 7.3%) which brings the first part of the hostilies to an end. The final 62.9km of the stage is mainly a long gradual descent and a final section of flat roads. Those final, mostly flat 30km, however, have a nasty little surprise for the riders as they contain the category 2 Brünigpass (6.4km, 6.3%). From the top, 21.9km remain, with the final 9km being mostly flat.

 

The stage contains a massive amount of climbing but the main obstacles come way too early for the GC riders to make a move. A breakaway definitely has a chance in this kind of stage but as the GC is still pretty close, the team's of the major favourites are unlikely to allow the escapees too much leeway. As the pace on the big climbs is unlikely to be very fast, a rider like Peter Sagan should have no trouble making it over the top with the peloton and then the main question is whether his Cannondale team and other sprint teams will be strong enough to bring it back together. The Brünigpass offers a perfect chance to launch a late attack and that climb will probably spell the end for all but the Sagan-type sprinters. If his Cannondale team can keep things under control, this looks like a perfect opportunity for the strong Slovakian.

 

 

 

Stage 3:

After the opening time trial, the GC battle will be put on hold until the stage 7 time trial and they will take a back seat in the middle part of the race which is loaded with opportunities for the sprinters and classics riders. The third stage is definitely the hardest of those stages as it contains an uphill finish but the uncategorized final ascent is more one for the puncheurs than for the climbers.

 

The stage brings the riders over 202.9km from yesterday's finish in Sarnen to Heiden and takes in some very undulating terrain. The first 70km are mostly flat but from there, the riders will have very little room for recovery. First they go up the category 2 climb Sattel (11.5km, 3.7%) which is long and gradual but not very steep. A descent leads to the final section of flat roads and then it's up or down all the way to the finish. Two of the many climbs are categorized and both of the second category: Wasserfluh (2.7km, 7.3%) and Wald (4.6km, 1.3%) which come with 65.7km and 22.6km to go respectively.

 

After the top of the latter, a descent and a flat stretch lead to bottom of the final climb which is 3.1km long and has an average gradient of 5.6%. The first 800m are a bit steeper with a gradient of 7.3% while the final part is slightly easier at 4-5%.

 

The final half of the stage will be very hard to control but as the GC is expected still to be pretty close, the GC teams may assist the teams of the puncheurs which may hope to shine in this kind of finish. As the first part is flat, it will be easier to make sure that the early break is too strong but as a lot of teams will start the stage with an aggressive mindset, a break can definitely make it in this difficult stage. If the stage comes down to a sprint finish, it is hard to look beyond Peter Sagan as the man to beat and his Cannondale team will probably try to keep things under control. The finale is unlikely to be hard enough to cause a separation between the GC riders but splits are guaranteed to occur and so they all need to be on their toes.

 

 

 

Stage 4:

Until now the sprinters have bided their time but as we have now reached the flatter northern part of the country, they can expect to come into play the next few days. Stages 4 and 5 should offer a chance to the fast finishers and even though every stage in the Tour de Suisse is undulating with short, sharp climbs, it seems that the organizers have avoided their usual temptation to include a small challeng close to the finish. The pure sprinters definitely have an incentive to do the Swiss race in 2014 and the first of those comes on the fourth day.

 

The stage brings the riders over 160.4km from the previous day's finish in Heiden to Ossingen and the first part consists of an entirely flat run along Bodensee until they reach the city of Kreuzlingen. Leaving the lake, the peloton faces slightly more undulating terrain but there are no major difficulties before the riders reach the finish in Ossingen for the first time after 104.9km of racing.

 

The final part of the stage consists of two laps of a 28km finishing circuit and it is a slightly rolling affair. The terrain is certainly not flat but there are no major difficulties apart from the category 4 climb Benken (1.5km, 5.5%). The top comes 15.2km from the finish and they are the easiest part of the circuit and mainly flat. There is a very slight rise inside the final 4km but it should be no major challenge and the final 1.6km are completely flat.

 

Even though the terrain is undulating and there is a small climb that may be used as a launch pad for an attack, it is hard to imagine that this stage won't be decided in a bunch sprint. Mark Cavendish probably only has two shots at a stage win and this one is definitely one of them. He can't afford to let it pass away and with a strong team to support him, he should be able to ensure a sprint finish.

 

 

 

Stage 5:

The sprinters are likely to have had their first chance in stage 4 and they will get an immediate chance for a rematch one day later when the riders continue their westerly journey in the northern part of the country, gradually approaching the Alps. The stage brings them from yesterday's finish in Ossingen to Büren a. A. and has the easiest finish of the entire race.

 

The first 40km are almost completely flat and lead to the hardest part of the course which contains three small categorized climbs. The category 4 Zurzibergstrasse (2.1km, 6.7%), category 3 Bözbergstrasse (3.1km, 6.6%) and category 3 Staffelegg (3.4km, 4.9%) come in quick succession, with the latter summitting at the 80km mark, and they offer the main challenges of the day. From there, the terrain is flat until the riders cross the line for the first time afte 153.8km of racing.

 

The final part of the stage consists of a 29.8km finishing circuit and it is slightly more undulating that the main part of the stage. However, the main difficulty is the category 4 climb Biezwilerstrasse (1.4km, 5.9%) which comes 24.7km from the finish but it should be no real challenge for the sprinters. After the top, there are a few small climbs before the road becomes flat near the finish.

 

With the terrain becoming significantly harder in the final four stages, it is hard to imagine that the sprinters will miss this opportunity. A lot of sprinters will be eager to take revenge after the first battle one day earlier and the winner should be eager to make it two in a row. Expect a big bunch sprint to decide the winner in Büren late in the afternoon.

 

 

 

Stage 6:

The riders have now reached the western part of the country where the terrain is significantly harder and even though the sixth stage will not enter the high mountains, it should be a lot more difficult than the previous ones. It brings the riders over 192.8km from yesterday's finish in Büren to Delemont and offers some serious climbing along the way.

 

The first 42km are entirely flat but are only a warm-up for the hostilities. First up is the category 1 Grand Chaumont (15km, 4.4%) and it leads almost directly to the category2 Col des Pontins (6.9km, 5.2%). Then there's another small uncategorized ascent but then the 65.9km mostly consist of a long, gradual descent to the finish in Delemont.

 

As is typical for the Tour de Suisse, the stage ends with a finishing circuit and this time it is significantly harder than it has been the last few days. The 42.5km have a flat start but then it is up or down for the most of the remaining part. The first challenge is the category 2 Col des Rangiers (7.7km, 5.0%) whose descent leads to the bottom of the category 3 climb Le Rond-Pre (5.7km, 2.9%). The final 11.7km consist of a fast non-technical descent and 5 flat kilometres to the finish in Delemont.

 

The final circuit should be too tough for most of the sprinters and as we are now in the second half of a long stage race, an early break or a late attack has a solid chance of making it to the finish. On the other hand, big differences are unlikely to have been made and so the GC teams may be unwilling to give an escape too much leeway. Like so many Tour de Suisse stages, it is tailor-made for Peter Sagan but in this kind of terrain, it will be hard for Cannondale to keep things together for a sprint. The GC riders hope for a non-dangerous break that will allow them to have an easy day ahead of the final three days that will all be decisive.

 

 

 

Stage 7:

The time trial has often been held on the final day but as it was the case in 2012, this year's race against the clock will be held already on the seventh day. The climbers will be happy to get all the time trialing out of the way already before they have had the first summit finish, allowing them to head into the mountains knowing how much time they need to gain. Furthermore, they will be pleased to know that this year's 24.5km is shorter than usual and true to tradition, the course is a pretty undulating affair.

 

The stage is held on a 24.5km circuit on the hilly southern outskirts of Worb. The first 7km are the easiest as they are predominantly flat but from there, it is up or down all the way to the finish. First up is a 3.7km climb whose average gradient of 5.4% will test the climbing skills and the first time check will be taken at the top. Then it's a short, non-technical descent and a rolling section before the riders hit the second climb.

 

The 3.8km ascent only has an average gradient of 2.6% and is more of a gradual uphill section than a real climb. The second time check will be taken just before the top. The final 6km consist of a fast, non-technical dowhill section and 1.5km of relatively flat roads.

 

The climbs will put the heavy specialists in difficulty but the three greatest time triallists in the peloton, Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins and Fabian Cancellara, shouldn't be hampered by this kind of course. We can expect a big battle between those three riders for the stage win while the climbers hope to limit their losses to Wiggins in the fight for the overall win. Even though the stage is not very long, Wiggins proved in the Tour of California that he can make some massive gains even on relatively short distances. The hilly terrain should make things sligthly easier for the climbers but in general, this stage is definitely more suited to the powerful specialists.

 

 

 

Stage 8:

We have reached the final weekend and unusually the climbers have not yet had a chance to make a real difference. However, they will have plenty of opportunities in the last two stages as the main challenges have been saved until the very end.

 

First up is the longest stage of the race which brings the riders over 219.1km from Delemont to a mountaintop finish in Verbier which has often hosted the Tour de Suisse. The make up of the stage is a classic for the Swiss race as the first 190km are mostly flat and only have a few rolling hills that could potentially challenge the riders. It consists of a long sourthly run through the valley in the Alps and includes a passage of Aigle where the UCI headquarters are located.

 

After 190km, the riders reach Martigny which was also visited by the Dauphiné peloton one week earlier. While the peloton in the French race turned right to head to tackle a brand-new summit finish, the Tour de Suisse riders turn left to head into much more well-known terrain.

 

The road now starts to rise slightly for 14.1km that have an average gradient of 2.7%. With 13.4km to go, the riders reach a small plateau where they contest a category 3 KOM sprint. A short descent leads to the bottom of the 9.8km HC climb to the finish in Verbier. It has an average gradient of 6.5% but the final 8km have a pretty constant gradient of around 8%.

 

Verbier was famously included in the 2009 Tour de France where Alberto Contador made an early attack to put 43 seconds into Andy Schleck and 1.03 into Vincenzo Nibali. The stage will be remembered by Lance Armstrong as this is where he learnt that he wouldn't win the first Tour after his comeback. It last featured in the Tour de Suisse two years ago when Rui Costa laid the foundations for his overall win by taking the stage win. In the 2000s, Kim Kirchen, Pablo Lastras, Alexandre Moos and Pascal Hervé have all won stages in the famous ski resort.

 

The climb is not very long, history proves that it is hard enough to make a selection but the past has also learnt us that the time gaps rarely are very big. As the early part of the stage is pretty easy and most GC riders will need the bonus seconds to take back time on Wiggins, the stage is likely to be decided by the favourites. This is the first chance for the climbers to shine but they will have to keep something in reserve for the following day's queen stage.

 

 

 

Stage 9:

This year the Tour de Suisse organizers have saved the best for the final stage which is another very tough stage in the mountains. At just 156.7km, it is a lot shorter than the previous one but unlike stage 8, it offers hard climbing almost all day.

 

The stage starts in Martigny at the bottom of yesterday's finishing climb and ends in Saas-Fee that hasn't hosted a stage finish since 2003. The first 29km consist of a flat run along the Rhone river until the riders reach Sion. Here they will do a right-hand turn to go up the category 1 Veysonnaz climb (10.8km, 6.8%) which is followed by a very short descent and a short flat section. It leads to the bottom of the category 2 St. Martin climb (10.1km, 4.6%) and then a technical descent brings the riders back to the Rhone valley.

 

The next 25km are again flat before the riders do another right-hand turn to go up a climb. This time it is the category 1 Eischoll (8.5km, 7.0%) which brings the riders onto another technical descent down to the valley. This time there is only a very short flat section before the road again ramps upwards. The HC climb is 20.1km long and has an average gradient of 5.4% and so the main challenge will be the length. Near the finish there are a few flatter sections but the final 2.4km are a lot harder at 7.5%. The top comes 1km from the finish and then it's a final 2.7% section to the line.

 

The final climb is very long but history proves that it is very hard to make too much of a separation on a 5% climb. Such stages often end in a sprint from a 20-30 rider group but as there is a steeper ramp near the top, there is a chance that the differences will be a bit bigger. However, the stage is unlikely to produce too much selection and should suit a rider like Wiggins perfectly. As the stage comes at the final day though, there will be no reason to keep anything in reserve and we can expect a flurry of attacks as riders try to maximize their benefits from the final climbing opportunity.

 

When the riders last did this finish in 2003, Francesco Cansagrande took a solo win 13 seconds ahead of Kim Kirchen but no less than 15 riders finished within 30 second of the Italian, proving the fact that the final climb is not too selective.

 

 

 

The favourites

Having traditionally been regarded as the fourth biggest stage race in the world, the Tour de Suisse is a kind of mini grand tour that has a bit of everything. With a number of big mountain stages and two time trials, it usually suits the grand tour specialists that can both climb and time trial and that recover sufficiently to handle 9 days of racing. From year to year, the balance changes a bit, with some years suiting time triallists and others being more for climbers, but it is usually won by one of the biggest stage race riders.

 

Last year’s course had a mountain time trial and so clearly favoured the climbers over the time triallists. This year the balance seems to have tipped and the 2014 course seems to be favouring the TT specialists slightly. There are only two mountaintop finishes and the final of those is not too difficult. The climb to Verbier is steep but not very long and it should be possible for the TT specialists to limit their losses. On the other hand, the distance of the long time trial is shorter than usual which is in favour of the climbers. Hence, the race shapes up to be a pretty open affair but it is clear that you won’t win the Tour de Suisse if you don’t have decent time trialing skills.

 

At the same time, picking favourites for the Tour de Suisse is made more complicated by the fact that it is some kind of a clash between two worlds. Several riders return to competition after a long period of training and no one really knows how they are going and how they will adapt to the higher intensity after their break. For the Giro riders, it is always a big question whether they will be able to maintain their condition all the way to the end of the race three weeks after the conclusion of their grand tour.

 

This year the main difficulties are all in the final three days of the race which should clearly favour the Tour riders over the Giro riders. The former will have time to find their rhythm before things get serious while the latter will start to feel the fatigue towards the end of the 9-day race. History proves that the Tour riders usually have the upper hand and it will be a big surprise if it is any different in 2014.

 

With the time trials playing a major role, the winner of the race could very well be one of the most controversial figures in the cycling world and this could give Sky a pretty big problem explaining the selection of the Tour roster. In the Tour of California, Bradley Wiggins proved that he has returned to his best stage racing form and he is lining up in Switzerland with his eyes on the overall win.

 

Much has been said about Wiggins over the last few days since the 2012 Tour champion made it clear that he expects not to get selected for the Tour de France. While the core of the Tour team have been training at altitude together and are now racing at the Dauphiné, Wiggins has been training on his own and has been sent to the Tour de Suisse with a team largely made up of youngsters and riders from the Giro roster. Wiggins has seen the writing on the wall but he could send a massive signal to the Sky management by winning the race.

 

With two time trials, the course suits him extremely well. The short, explosive prologue is not his forte but he should still be able to put time into all his key rivals. The long, rolling time trial suits him down to the ground and in that kind of effort, he can open massive time gaps. In California, he beat a specialist like Rohan Dennis by a massive 44 seconds on a shorter 20.1km course and even though this one is more hilly, there is no reason to suggest that his time gains will be any smaller in stage 7.

 

His main challenge will be to defend his lead in the final two summit finishes but if he heads into those two stages with an advantage of more than a minute over the strongest climbers, he will be very hard to beat. In California, he was clearly the strongest climber and it was only the fact that he played a bit too much with the muscles on the Mount Diablo that saw the race getting a bit closer. On Mountain High, he proved that he was a class above the rest.

 

The final climb in the final stage is the long, gradual affair that suits him perfectly and he will be very hard to drop in that kind of ascent. The climb to Verbier will be harder but with an advantage from the time trial, he doesn’t need to respond to all attacks but can along to tackle the climb more or less like a time trial. If he rides wisely, he should be able to limit his losses sufficiently to win the race overall.

 

Two factors are against Wiggins. First of all his team is not overly strong and it was a lack of team support that put him in difficulty on the Mount Diablo when he was forced to hit the front himself with more than 5km still to go. To avoid the constant attacking, he needs a team that can set a hard, regular pace. If Peter Kennaugh is at his best, Joe Dombrowski has the same legs as he had on Mountain High and Dario Cataldo and Philip Deignan are still fresh after the Giro, he has a pretty powerful support crew. On paper it should be enough to carry him to the win and his rivals will need to isolate him early.

 

The other big question is his form. He was obviously really strong in California but in that famous L’Equipe interview he seemed to be pretty demoralized. It may have been hard for him to keep his focus, knowing that he is unlikely to go to the Tour de France. As he is up against several riders close to their peak, he needs to be at his very best to win the race. On the other hand, Wiggins is a fighter and he may be inspired by the adversity. The best he could do to improve his chances of riding the Tour de France, is to win in Switzerland as it would be pretty hard not to select a recent Tour de Suisse winner. If Wiggins is close to Tour de France condition, he is the definite favourite to win the race.

 

Rui Costa lines up at the race as the winner of the 2012 and 2013 editions and it is hard to look beyond the Portuguese as one of the major favourites. His spring season was plagued by a lot of bad luck and he has clearly felt the curse of the rainbow jersey. Finishing 2nd in Paris-Nice and 3rd in the Tour de Romandie, however, he constantly proved that he was riding really well and his commitments as world champion don’t seem to have had a negative impact on his form.

 

This year’s course for the Tour de Suisse suits him pretty well. He is certainly no TT specialist but on a hilly course he can defend himself well. The same goes for the opening time trial which should suit his explosive capabilities. Of course he will lose time to Wiggins in both stages and he needs to take it back in the mountains. However, the Portuguese should be a better climber than the 2012 Tour champion.

 

Costa is no pure climber and he seems to excel more in the lumpy terrain than in the real mountains. That means that the stage to Verbier should suit him really well while the longer climb in stage 9 could be more of a challenge for the world champion. On the other hand, his performance in last year’s Tour de Suisse proved that he has improved a lot on the long climbs and as he is gearing up for his first leadership role in a grand tour, one will expect him to have focused even more on the real climbing. Finally, he has a very fast sprint and with bonus second up for grabs, that will be a clear advantage.

 

What could make things more complicated for Costa is his new schedule. In 2012 and 2013 the Tour de Suisse was more of a personal target as he was expected to play a domestique role in the Tour. This year La Grande Boucle is his main objective and so he may use the Tour de Suisse more as a preparation event. This indicates that he may not be quite as strong as he was 12 months ago and this will make it harder for him to make it three in a row. Nonetheless, the history proves that Costa can never be underestimated in this event and he rarely goes to a race without gunning for the win. Based on his performances earlier this year, he has stepped up his game and he will definitely be a danger man.

 

Last year Roman Kreuziger finished 3rd in the race before going on to take fifth at the Tour de France and this year he will again be the Tinkoff-Saxo leader in Switzerland while Alberto Contador is racing at the Dauphiné. Kreuziger is expected to play a support role in the Tour and so this race is his chance to chase some personal success. Even though the Tour remains his main priority, he will do his best to win the race.

 

While riding in Astana colours, his progress seemed to have stalled but since he joined Tinkoff-Saxo, he has stepped up his level massively. Last year he did his best ever grand tour in July and had probably beaten his captain Contador if he hadn’t been riding at the Spaniard’s side. This year he seems to be even stronger. In Tirreno-Adriatico, he was immensely strong in the first mountain stage where he rode most of the climb on his own into a headwind and still managed to finish fourth. He ended the race in 3rd and later he proved his strength in the classics. Even though he didn’t defend his Amstel Gold Race title, he was definitely one of the strongest riders in Liege and seemed to be a lot better than he was 12 months ago.

 

Like Costa, he is definitely not in his best shape yet but a bit less could be enough to win the race. In the past, he was a very good time triallist but for some reason he developed into a pretty poor one over the last few year. In 2013, however, he showed signs of a return to his best level and the rolling courses in Switzerland should suit him well. Of course he will lose time to Wiggins but he should be equally matched with the likes of Costa and Bauke Mollema. If Wiggins falters, it will be decided between those riders in the mountains, and here Kreuziger could turn out to be the strongest.

 

After a number of years with disappointing results in stage race, Bauke Mollema used last year’s Tour de Suisse to prove that he has a lot of potential in multi-day events. After winning the first mountain stage, he ended the race in second and he went on to finish a very respectable sixth in the Tour despite being hampered by illness in the decisive third week.

 

This year he will again use the Swiss race to fine-tune his condition for the Tour and things indicate that he is a maybe even stronger than he was 12 months ago. After a disappointing start, he did really well in the Ardennes and when he returned to competition in the Tour of Norway he won the queen stage and would have won the race overall if it hadn’t been for a break gaining seconds in a flat stage.

 

Since then he will only have become a lot stronger and he will find the course in Switzerland to his liking. Even though he is no TT specialist, no one should underestimate him in a TT – especially on a rolling course. In 2012 he finished second in the very hilly Pais Vasco time trial and last year he was 11th in the first flat time trial of the Tour de France, beating riders like Alberto Contador and Kreuziger in the process. We wouldn’t be surprised if he turns out to be stronger than both Kreuziger and Costa in stage 7 and he definitely has the climbing legs to defend that position. As a fast finisher, he could even pick up bonus seconds along the way, making him a very strong winner candidate.

 

For IAM, the Tour de Suisse is one of the most important races of the entire year and even though their leader Mathias Frank has the Tour de France as his main objective, he may be a bit more eager to win than the rest of the Tour contenders. Last year he proved what a great stage race rider he is when he led the Tour de Suisse for a long time despite going into the race a support rider for Tejay van Garderen.

 

After several years of working as a domestique, Frank is now a team leader at the IAM team and he is set to focus on the general classification in the Tour de France. Of course that is his main objective but he will do his utmost to make amends for last year’s disappointment when he lost it all with a poor time trial up the Flumserberg.

 

He has handled the change of role very well and seems to be riding stronger than ever. He won the queen stage of the Criterium International and finished that race second overall. Later he finished fourth in the Tour de Romandie which proves that he can mix it up with the best on the WorldTour. Recently he won the queen stage and finished second overall in the Bayern Rundfahrt, proving that he is still in excellent condition.

 

Frank’s main strength is his climbing skills but recently he has improved a lot in time trials. In the three above-mentioned stage races he did very decent rides against the clock and the hilly courses in Switzerland should suit him well. He should be able to defend himself very well compared to the likes of Costa, Mollema and Kreuziger and then it will be up to him to show that he is climbing better than the rest.

 

Thibaut Pinot got close to the win in last year’s race when he finished fourth overall and if it hadn’t been for his poor descending skills, he would probably have made the podium. This year the course suits him less as the mountain time trial has been replaced by a rolling one and this means that he needs to gain more time in the mountains.

 

On paper, however, Pinot is one of the very best climbers in this race. Last year he finished 7th in the Vuelta to prove his skills and this year he is getting back into form after an injury-plague start to the season. Recently, he finished second in the queen stage of the Bayern Rundfahrt but dropped down the overall standings due to a poor time trial.

 

He is likely to lose time to most of his rivals in the TTs but in fact he has improved a lot in the discipline. In both Pais Vasco and Romandie, he finished in the top 10 in the time trials and this is testament to his progress. Those stages were held on hillier courses but as the long time trial in this race is certainly not flat, he may limit his losses pretty well. If he does so and Wiggins fades in the mountains, he can definitely win this race.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo is heading into the race just weeks after finishing fifth in the Giro and the Italian has had a fabulous season so far, finishing in the top 10 in all races he has started. However, it has been a long one for him as he was already riding strongly in the Tour de San Luis in January and to top it off with the Tour de Suisse may be a bit too much on the back of a very heavy racing burden.

 

On paper he is one of the very best climbers in this race and he rides really well in lumpy time trials. However, the main difficulties all come in the final half of the race and as he already showed signs of fatigue towards the end of the Giro, it will be hard for him to win this race. Last year he faded in the final weekend and it is likely to happen again. On the other hand, Wilco Kelderman is proving how strong one can be on the back of a grand tour and if Pozzovivo has recovered, no one can rule him out.

 

Mollema is not the only Belkin option as Laurens Ten Dam is also finalizing his Tour preparations in Switzerland. In last year’s Tour de France, the Dutchman proved that he is a very capable climber when he is at his best and if he getting close to that level, he should be close to the front. 2014 hasn’t been too good for him so far but he has never been very strong in the spring. We are approaching the time where he is usually at his best and we can expect a lot more from Ten Dam in this race. Unlike Mollema, however, he is a pretty poor time triallist and this will make it hard for him to win the race but if things go well, he could finish in the top 5.

 

Frank Schleck has been close to the win in this race in the past but since coming back from suspension he has not been at his best level. He is always riding at a solid level but no longer seems to be able to match the very best. In the recent Tour de Luxembourg, however, he was clearly one of the strongest climbers but the course didn’t suit him too well. That race didn’t have a very strong line-up though.

 

Schleck is now approaching the most important part of his season and so we can expect him to get better. At the same time, he is still paying the price for his long absence from competition and he should improve as he gets more racing kilometres in his legs. However, he has shown nothing to indicate that he will be able to match his previous results in Switzerland and he will definitely lose a lot of time in the time trial. It will be hard for him to win the race but it is always hard to rule out such a classy bike rider.

 

Like Pozzovivo, Cadel Evans is lining up at the race on the back of the Giro d’Italia and honestly we don’t have very much confidence in the veteran Australian. In Italy, he seemed to be pretty fatigued at the end and he certainly didn’t come out of the race in his best condition. In fact, he didn’t want to ride in Switzerland but as the team is Swiss, the management asked him to line up.

 

Those factors all suggest that Evans will be somewhat off the pace. In the past, however, Evans was a very consistent rider and as a fighter, there is no doubt that he will do his best to line up in a reasonable condition. On paper, the course with its rolling time trials suits him well and if he is at his Giro del Trentino level, he is definitely capable of winning this race. Unfortunately, we don’t think he is even close to his best.

 

Garmin-Sharp line up a roster with a number of candidates. One of them is Tom Danielson who has had a slow start to his season due to injury. However, he is now back at full health and has gradually been building his condition for his summer objectives. At his best, Danielson is a very strong climber but for some reason he has found it difficult to bring his best legs across the Atlantic and in the last few years he has mostly shined in the USA. In those races and select WorldTour races, however, he has shown a very high level and he may now benefit from having had a slower start to the season. He is no longer the time triallist he once was but if he finds his best legs, a top 5 finish is possible.

 

Finally, Rohan Dennis deserves a mention. The Australian is one of the very best time triallists in the world and has no less than three runner-up spots in TTs this year. While he has always excelled in the race against the clock, however, he has struggled a bit against the best on the climbs but when he won on Mount Diablo in the Tour of California, he proved how far he has come. There is a lot more to come from Dennis and he will only get better in the mountains over the next few years. Among the GC riders, only Wiggins is a better time triallist than Dennis and he is likely to go into the final weekend with an advantage over most of his rivals. He still hasn’t shown that he can match the best climbers at the WorldTour level and this will make it hard for him to win the race. On the other hand, he could create a surprise if he continues his upwards trajectory from the Tour of California.

 

***** Bradley Wiggins

**** Rui Costa, Roman Kreuziger

*** Bauke Molllema, Mathias Frank, Thibaut Pinot

**Domenico Pozzovivo, Laurens Ten Dam, Frank Schleck, Cadel Evans, Tom Danielson, Rohan Dennis

* Janier Acevedo, Ion Izagirre, Sergio Henao, Warren Barguil, Johan Esteban Chaves, Lawson Craddock, Davide Formolo, Alexandr Dyachenko, Marcel Wyss, Sergio Pardilla