True to tradition, the Tour de Suisse kicks off with a short time trial and as it is often the case in the mountainous event, it is a very special affair. The 9.4km stage is a mix of a flat start, a pretty hard climb and a very technical descent, making it an open race that could suit several different types of riders.

 

The course

Since 2000, only four editions of the race haven't started with a short time trial and the last time the race kicked off with a road stage was back in 2008 when Oscar Freire won a sprint from a reduced peloton to take the first leader's jersey. This year the opening stage is again a time trial and the organizers have followed their tradition of including a pretty difficult climb and a very technical descent in the route. In recent years the race has often started with the same stage in Lugano which mostly consisted of a climb and a descent. Last year the opening stage was a pretty traditional time trial while this year's opening stage is a bit of a mix with flat sections, climbing and descending.

 

The entire 9.4km stage takes place in the city of Bellinzona and the first part is pretty straightforward as it travels along flat roads until it reaches a turning point in the southern part of the city. A few corners, mainly in the first part, will break the rhythm but it should mainly suit the big specialists.

 

Instead of going straight back to the start-finish area, the riders will turn right after 4.4km of racing and soon after they will head up a pretty difficult climb. It's 2.7km long and has an average gradient of 5.7%, with the intermediate time check being taken on the lower slopes at the 5.7km mark. The final 2km consist of a pretty technical descent with a number of switchbacks and only the final part is slightly easier. It's downhill all the way to the finish.

 

Bellinzona last hosted a stage in 2004 when Paolo Bettini took a solo win

 

 

 

The weather

Like the riders in the Dauphiné, the riders have had summerlike conditions in the last few days leading up to the Tour de Suisse but unfortunately things are set to get a lot worse during the week. Luckily the weather forecasts have postponed the predicted rainfall and it seems that the opening time trial will take place in dry conditions.

 

At the moment, the forecasts predict plenty of sunshine and just a few clouds on the sky. The temperature will reach a maximum of 24 degrees and it should be an almost perfect day for a bike race.

 

There will be virtually no wind, with just a very light breeze coming from a northerly direction. This means that the riders will have a tailwind in the first part and a headwind on the climb and the descent.

 

Some forecasts predict that there could be thunder showers in the afternoon and many favourites have chosen to start early. It is most likely that it will stay dry but as wet roads will have a massive impact on the descent, the main favourites prefer to be on the safe side. Defending champion Rui Costa won't even be the final rider to start as he leaves that spot for teammate Rafael Valls Ferri.

 

The favourites

Due to its mixed profile with three very different sections, the opening time trial is a very interesting and exciting affair that is less predictable than your usual prologue. While the first part suits the big engines like Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin, the hill should be in favour of the climbers and the puncheurs. Finally, you can potentially lose a lot of time in the descent where technical abilities will be extremely important. This opens the field of winners a lot more than it would have been the case for a traditional prologue.

 

It is certainly not a new idea for the Tour de Suisse to start their race with this kind of time trial. Very often the opening prologue has had a similar layout, with a difficult climb and a technical descent playing a major role. Very often the only specialist to mix it up in those time trials has been Fabian Cancellara who has limited his losses on the climb and gained a lot of time on the descent. In addition to the GC riders, they have often been dominated by GC riders and punchy classics specialists that know how to power their way up such a climb.

 

The previous time trial in Lugano was used three years in a row and had less flat than tomorrow’s course but Fabian Cancellara still managed to win twice, making use of his exceptional descending skills and powerful climbing to beat his rivals. In 2012, however, Peter Sagan beat the home favourite as the hilly course and technical descent suited the Slovakian down to the ground.

 

This year’s Tour de Suisse can present a fabulous line-up for the time trials as the three giants Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins and Fabian Cancellara will battle it out in the time trials. Furthermore, Rohan Dennis and Tom Dumoulin who have been two of the best time triallists all year are also here, making it one of the most competitive TT fields all year. What makes the opening stage even more intriguing is that the different parts suits different riders. While Martin is probably the strongest on the flats, Wiggins should be the best climber and Cancellara the best on the descent. Hence, all three riders have a very realistic chance of winning the race.

 

While he is definitely no longer the time triallist he once was, Fabian Cancellara is still the best prologue rider in the world, especially on technical courses. He is no longer able to match an in-form Tony Martin on the really long courses but on the short ones, his explosiveness makes him the rider to beat. This course suits him pretty well and history proves that he is hard to beat in a Tour de Suisse opener.

 

In Tirreno-Adriatico, Cancellara beat both Martin and Wiggins on a short, flat course, proving his skills in short time trials. He could easily turn out to be the fastest in the opening section and he will be very strong on the descent. The climb is not too long and on such short ascents, he is pretty powerful. Cancellara has proved that he can win this kind of hilly prologues and he could do so again tomorrow.

 

His condition is a bit of a question mark as he didn’t exactly shine in the Bayern Rundfahrt. However, he has never done so and he is always in a solid condition by the time the Tour de Suisse starts. He had a bad crash this week while training on his TT bike and it may hamper him a bit during his ride. This raises a few doubts but reports are that he is feeling okay. Yesterday he did a few laps of the GP Gippingen to get back into the race rhythm but abandoned early as the opening time trial is a very big target for him. He checked the course a week ago and it is clear that the first day could be his biggest goal of the entire week. This kind of mixed, short time trial suits him perfectly and so he is out favourite to win the stage.

 

The most versatile of the three time trial stars is Bradley Wiggins. In the Tour of California, he proved that he is back in his best stage racing condition and he took a storming victory in the only time trial, distancing Dennis – who is one of the best in this discipline – by more than 40 seconds on a short, flat 20km course. Wiggins may have had a few difficult seasons but that performance underlined that he is still one of the very best time triallists in the world.

 

Coming from the track, Wiggins has always been a great prologue rider but as he developed his diesel engine a bit more to become a GC rider, he seemed to lose a bit of his top speed in the short time trials while he got stronger in the long ones. Hence, he hasn’t won an awful lot of prologues but he is never too far off the mark. What makes him a favourite in this stage is the inclusion of a climb where he should be able to gain time on both Cancellara and Martin.

 

The trio should be fairly equally matched in the flat section and even though Wiggins famously struggled on the descents in the 2013 Giro, he is no poor descender. He may not be able to go down the descent as fast as Cancellara but he shouldn’t lose too much time. With an advantage gained on the climb, it could be a close one.

 

One factor makes things a bit more uncertain. Wiggins had made the Tour de France one of his season highlights but in an interview with L’Equipe, he admitted that he is unlikely to be included on the Sky roster. His morale may have suffered a blow and there is a risk that he hasn’t been able to fully concentrate on his training. The best way to force his way onto the Tour roster would be to win the Tour de Suisse overall and we still think that he will come out with all guns blazing but there is a risk that he is no longer in the condition he showed in California. If he is, he could very well lead this race from start to finish

 

Last year Tony Martin was virtually unbeatable in the time trials but this year he has had a harder time. In fact, he has only won twice, in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and the Tour of Belgium. While he seems to be climbing better than he has done for a few years, he doesn’t appear to have the same power in the time trials.

 

At the same time, Martin has never been a great prologue rider. Even when at 100% he has rarely won the short opening time trials and this course doesn’t suit him too well either. The flat stretch is too short to suit his diesel engine and the climb too explosive for him as well. He is a solid descender but will definitely lose time to Cancellara in the final part. All those factors add up and make is hard for Martin. On the other hand, he is clearly in good condition and one can never rule out the world champion in a time trial.

 

Peter Sagan is no TT specialist but he is a great prologue rider, especially on hilly, technical courses. Two years ago he won the opening time trial in Lugano which was held on a course that was pretty similar to the one used for tomorrow’s race. Last year he crushed the opposition in a technical, hilly Tour of Alberta prologue and this makes him an obvious threat in tomorrow’s stage as well.

 

Compared to the Lugano course, however, tomorrow’s stage has a longer flat section and here Sagan will definitely lose time to the bigger engines. He will probably gain time on Wiggins, Martin and Cancellara on the climb and the descent but it may not be enough for him to make up for his losses. However, he should not be too far off the mark and if the roads are wet, no one should underestimate Sagan in this kind of stage.

 

This year Tom Dumoulin has proved that he getting close to the time trialling elite. In the Tirreno TT where all the best time triallists were at the start line, he was 5th behind Malori, Cancellara, Wiggins and Martin and he won the Criterium International TT. In the recent Tour of Belgium, he was second behind Martin but this time he was a lot closer to the world champion than he was one year ago.

 

Dumoulin is not only strong in long TTs, he is a really good prologue rider as well. He climbs really well and is not a pure descender either. He may lack a bit of explosiveness for this kind of course but he should not be too far off the mark.

 

This year Rohan Dennis has been the perennial runner-up in TTs. He was 2nd in the Criterium International, Circuit Cycliste Sarthe, Tour de Romandie prologue and Tour of California, proving that he has stepped up his level a further notch. While his main strength is probably still the longer time trials – last year he was second behind Martin in the Dauphiné TT – his performances in the former three of those four TTs were all taken on short courses. As a GC rider he is a great climber and he descends well. Finally, he is pretty explosive which is important on this kind of route. Dennis would love to kick off his GC campaign in the best possible way and this stage suits him perfectly.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Ion Izagirre has gradually progressed in TTs over the last few years and in 2014 he has stepped up his level a further notch. He was third in the Ruta del Sol prologue, 7th in the Pais Vasco TT and 5th in the Tour de Romandie TT. He mostly excels on hilly courses and should find tomorrow’s route to his liking. He would probably have preferred a longer distance but he has done well in short time trials in the past. His condition is a bit uncertain as he hasn’t raced since Romandie and the rumours say that he won’t be part of the Tour de France roster. If he is at 100%, however, he could create a surprise.

 

Silvan Dillier has been very impressive in the first part of his neo-pro season. Recently, he was fourth in the Tour of Belgium time trial and he will carry his good form into his home race. The short distance for the opening stage should suit him well and he could make another good performance. The course is definitely a bit too hilly to suit him perfectly and he won’t win the stage. However, a top 10 finish is definitely within his reach.

 

Bauke Mollema may not be known as a time trial specialist but on hilly courses he usually performs pretty well. He has done some pretty good prologues in past editions of the Tour de Romandie and Tour de Suisse and this course with a short climb and a technical descent should suit him really well. He is pretty explosive and should be faster than most on the ascent and won’t lose much time on descent either. Of course he will lose time to the biggest specialists on the flat section and he certainly won’t win the stage but we wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish close to the best.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Bradley Wiggins

Other winner candidates: Fabian Cancellara, Tony Martin

Outsiders: Peter Sagan, Tom Dumoulin, Rohan Dennis

Jokers: Ion Izagirre, Silvan Dillier, Bauke Mollema