The GC riders had their first small test in today’s opening time trial but there will be no time to rest. Even though you can’t win the race in tomorrow’s second stage, the massive amount of climbing means that you will get an immediate feedback on your condition and it is a day when all can be lost. While it will all be about defence for the GC riders, the stage win is likely to be decided by a group of attackers or in a sprint from a reduced peloton.

 

The course

While many stage races have the hillier stages late in the race, the Tour de Suisse has often included a mountain stage already 24 hours after the opening time trial. In 2014 the riders will again head straight into the mountains but unlike the last few years, it won't be a mountaintop finish on the second day. The stage includes some very difficult climbing, with three mountains at more than 2000m of altitude, but the second half is mostly one long descent, meaning that the stage is unlikely to play any role in the GC.

 

The stage is 181.8km long and brings the riders from the start in yesterday's finishing city of Bellinzona to Sarnen at the other side of the Alps. After a flat start the riders go up the big HC category Gotthardpass (46.2km, 3.8%) which is a long steady climb. The average gradient is deceptive as the final 13.8km have an average gradient of 6.8%, making it a very tough affair.

 

There won't be much time to recover on the short subsequent descent as the riders go straight up the category HC Furkapass (11.9km, 7.3%) whose top at 2416m above sea level is the highest point of the race. Another short descent leads to the bottom of the category 2 Grimselpass (5.3km, 7.3%) which brings the first part of the hostilies to an end. The final 62.9km of the stage is mainly a long gradual descent and a final section of flat roads. Those final, mostly flat 30km, however, have a nasty little surprise for the riders as they contain the category 2 Brünigpass (6.4km, 6.3%). From the top, 21.9km remain, with the final 9km being mostly flat.

 

There are no technical difficulties in the final part as the riders will follow a long straight road for the final three kilometres. There is a very small climb around the 2km to go banner but otherwise it is a completely flat affair.

 

 

 

The weather

While the riders in the Criterium du Dauphiné have battled some really hot temperatures, it seems that those who chose the Tour de Suisse as their final hit-out for the Tour de France, will have completely different conditions. Sunday is expected to be a cloudy day and there could be showers throughout the day, with the risk being at its greatest level late in the afternoon. The temperature at the finish in Sarnen will reach a maximum of just 13 degrees, meaning that it will be significantly colder at the top of the big climbs and there may be a risk of snow which could force the organizers to alter the stage

 

There will only be a light wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will generally have a crosswind from their right-hand side. At the top of the Brönigpass, however, they will turn into a cross-headwind for the remaining part of the stage.

 

The favourites

Tomorrow’s stage is one of the most unpredictable of the entire race as a few different scenarios could all come into play. If one looks at the amount of climbing, it is the hardest stage of the entire race but as it all comes pretty early in the race, it won’t be a day for the GC riders to make a move. For them, it will be a good day to get their racing legs up to speed and gauge their condition ahead of the more important challenges but they will all stay put in the peloton, trying to save as much energy as possible for later in the race.

 

The climbing is way too tough for the pure sprinters to make it to the finish with the best so for them it will be all about getting in some quality training ahead of the Tour de France. Hence, it is one of those stages that don’t have an obvious favourite, meaning that an escape has a pretty good chance of making it to the finish.

 

If it had come late in the race when time gaps had already opened up, it would be hard to imagine that an escapee would not prevail in Sarnen. At this early point, however, the GC is still very close and the GC riders may be unwilling to take any big risk by giving too much of an advantage to an attacker. The riders that have a chance to win this kind of stage needs to be a pretty strong climber, and this means that it will be hard to take back time on a surprise leader in the final weekend. Hence, it would be no surprise if the GC teams combine forces to keep this stage under control. Omega Pharma-Quick Step would love to keep the leader’s jersey but they have a team full of sprinters and Tony Martin will have to rely on other teams to bring it back together for a sprint.

 

At the same time, Peter Sagan may have red-circled this stage as a good opportunity. In the pure sprints on stages 4 and 5, it will be hard for him to win so he needs to make the most of stages 2, 3 and 6 which all suit him really well. Usually the amount of climbing would be too much for the versatile Slovakian but as it all comes pretty early, the pace won’t be too high. With the GC riders not riding full gas, he should be able to make it over the three major climbs with the best. The Brünigpass is the kind of climb on which he excels and it should only be an advantage for him as it will tire out his rivals ahead of the finale and make sure that the number of fast finishers is down to a minimum.

 

This means that Cannondale may try to control this stage for their Slovakian captain. The main question is whether the team is strong enough to do so. Being mostly made up of fast riders, the roster doesn’t contain an awful lot of climbers to keep a breakaway under control on the big climbs in the middle of the stage. It will be left to Christiano Salerno, Moreno Moser and young climbing sensation Davide Formolo to do the work and it will be very hard for the trio to keep a strong break under control in such a hard stage. As the break could easily include some strong climbers, they need to ride pretty fast on the first climbs and they need to keep something in reserve to control the attacks on the Brünigpass. For them to set up a sprint finish for Sagan, they probably need to form an alliance with the GC teams.

 

In any case, we will probably see a very fast start to the stage as everybody knows that this could be a day for a breakaway. If the break takes off before the climbing starts, it will be a bit of a lottery to make it, but there is a big chance that the riders will get to the bottom of the Gotthardpass before the elastic snaps. If that is the case, the break will contain some of the strongest climbers in the race and in that case, the peloton needs to ride fast all day. This could make it a brutally hard day in the saddle.

 

Hence, the stage could both be won from a long-distance breakaway, from a late break on the Brünigpass and from a sprint. Due to the close GC, however, we put our money on a sprint finish as we expect the GC teams to do their fair share of the work but it is almost 50-50 between a sprint and a breakaway.

 

If it comes down to a sprint, it is hard to look beyond Sagan as the man to beat. On paper, the climbing should be too tough for him but as it comes pretty early, he should be able to cope with it. He last raced in the Tour of California where he showed solid condition and since then he has been training at altitude in the USA. As he is gearing up for the Tour de France, he has been working a lot on his climbing and when he arrives at the Tour de Suisse, he usually has excellent climbing legs. One year ago, he took a very impressive stage win in Meiringen when he made it over a steep category 1 climb with the cream of the GC riders, escaped on the descent and finally beat a handful of race favourites in a sprint. If he has that kind of climbing legs in this year’s race as well, no one will be able to drop Sagan in this stage.

 

At the end of such a hard stage, Sagan is very difficult to beat in a sprint and he is likely to be the fastest rider in the peloton at the end. The main challenge for Sagan will be to set up the sprint finish as his team may not be strong enough to support him. If they succeed though, Sagan could continue his impressive run of success in the Swiss race right from the very beginning.

 

One rider that could potentially make things difficult for Sagan, is Ben Swift. The Brit is coming out of the Giro d’Italia and so his condition is a bit uncertain but this year he has proved that he is a really excellent climber. In the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he won a very hard stage after surviving some hard climbs in the group of favourites. Later he went on to finish 25th in the brutal Gavia-Stelvio stage in the Giro and those climbs are fully comparable to the ones in the middle of tomorrow’s stage.

 

Sky are mostly focused on Bradley Wiggins in this race but tomorrow there may be no conflict of interest. To keep Wiggins’ GC options open, they may need to chase down the early break and that could open the door for Swift. On paper, he may not be quite as fast as Sagan but in the Giro he was sprinting better than ever before. The main question is whether he has recovered from the Giro. If he is still at 100% of his capabilities, he is a very good winner candidate.

 

In the Tour de Romandie, Michael Albasini was virtually unstoppable as he won three out of four road stages. Since then he has taken a break from competition but showed that he is back in reasonable condition when he finished 5th in the GP Gippingen five days ago. He lines up in his home race with the hopes of winning a stage and stage 2 could be his best option.

 

Albasini is no pure climber but he is certainly not bad either. In 2012 he won a very hard mountain stage in this race and that same year he won the Volta a Catalunya overall. In 2009 he was the overall winner of the Tour of Austria which is a very tough stage race with some real climbing. There are definitely better climbers in this race but they won’t be allowed any leeway. Everybody knows that Albasini won’t win this race overall and so he may enjoy a bit of freedom.

 

If Albasini makes it into the right break, he will be very hard to beat. He is one of the strongest escape artists in the peloton and has won stages in virtually all major one-week WorldTour stage races. He is very hard to drop on the climbs and he has a lethal sprint. If a break makes it, Albasini will be our pick and if it comes down to a sprint from the peloton, he will have a decent chance as well.

 

Another rider who is excellent at picking the right breakaway, is Christophe Riblon. The Frenchman is highly inconsistent. In some races he is flying but in other races he is far off the pace. However, he usually gets into the right condition for the Tour de France where he has won two big mountain stages and after finishing 16th in the Bayern Rundfahrt, he is clearly in great condition for La Grande Boucle. He is no real GC danger and so will be allowed some leeway but he is a very good climber who can prevail in this kind of stage. At the same time, he has a decent sprint which could see him emerge as the fastest from a group that makes it to the finish.

 

Like Swift, Georg Preidler is coming out of the Giro d’Italia and so his condition is highly uncertain. In Thursday’s GP Gippingen, however, he showed outstanding condition as he was instrumental in setting up Simon Geschke for the win. Preidler escaped twice in the finale but still had the energy to help controlling the sprint for his teammate. He finished in the top 10 on the penultimate day of the Giro which further suggests that he has come out of the race in excellent condition. In the Giro, Preidler showed that he is a great climber but he is not GC threat. He may not be the fastest finisher but he could be the strongest rider if he makes it into the right breakaway.

 

Albasini is not the only option for Orica-GreenEDGE. Simon Clarke is also building his condition for the Tour de France and even though he is no pure climber, he definitely has a chance in this kind of stage. In 2012 he won the KOM jersey in the Vuelta a Espana and in last year’s World championships he proved how much he has improved since then when he finished 7th on the very hard course in Florence. Like many others he hasn’t done a lot of racing recently and so his condition is a bit uncertain. On paper, however, he has the skills for this kind of stage as he is both a good climber and a fast finisher.

 

IAM will be riding aggressively in their home race and they have a number of good options for this kind of stage. One of them is youngster Jonathan Fumeaux who is knocking on the door of his big breakthrough. Fumeaux is a strong climber but the GC riders won’t be too concerned with him if he makes it into the break. He may not have a very fast sprint but he could turn out to the one of the strongest in a breakaway.

 

Another option for them is Johann Tschopp. The Swiss is an excellent climber and after winning the mountains jersey in the Tour de Romandie, he will do his utmost to repeat that feat in his national tour. For that to happen, it will be important to hit the break in tomorrow’s stage which has lots of points on offer. It will be hard for him to win but if he can get clear on the Brünigpass, he may have a chance.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Matti Breschel recently won the Tour de Luxembourg overall after winning two of the hardest stages in the race. The amount of climbing in this race is a lot harder and as he is no climber, this could be a bit too tough for him. On the other hand, he seems to be in great condition and a few years ago he won a stage in this race that was not too different from tomorrow’s. If the break takes off before they hit the first big climb, he may be there and if he can survive the climbs, he has a fast sprint to finish it off.

 

The same can be said for Francesco Gavazzi who is a better climber than Breschel and has a very fast sprint too. The Italian recently finished in the top 10 of the GP Gippingen and was 2nd in the queen stage of the Tour of Belgium, indicating that he is in good condition. The climbs are a bit too long to suit him perfectly but as he is no GC rider, he will enjoy some freedom. With his fast sprint, he will be a good pick if he makes the right break.

 

Veteran Davide Rebellin will be hoping to shine in one of the biggest races he will do all year but the race doesn’t offer an awful lot of opportunities for a rider like him. On paper, the climbs in this stage are too long for him. On the other hand, he is no GC threat and he is one of the decent climbers that could be allowed the freedom. He has a wealth of experience and a decent sprint, meaning that he knows how to handle a tricky finale.

 

Jerome Baugnies has been in outstanding condition in the last few weeks. He won a stage and finished on the podium in the Tour des Fjords and two days ago he was third in the GP Gippingen. As an Ardennes specialist, he may find the climbing pretty tough but no one fears the Belgian in the overall standings. Wanty will do their utmost to make themselves noticed in this race and Baugnies may be their best card. If he makes it into the break, he is a definite winner candidate due to his fast sprint.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: Ben Swift, Michael Albasini

Outsiders: Christophe Riblon, Georg Preidler, Simon Clarke, Johan Tschopp, Jonathan Fumeaux

Jokers: Matti Breschel, Francesco Gavazzi, Davide Rebellin, Jerome Baugnies