The GC riders got a chance to test themselves in today’s small uphill finish but for the next three days, the battle for the overall win will be put on hold. Instead, the sprinters will come to the fore in tomorrow’s fourth stage which is the first of two mostly flat affairs that are destined to end in big bunch sprints.

 

The course

Until now the sprinters have bided their time but as we have now reached the flatter northern part of the country, they can expect to come into play the next few days. Stages 4 and 5 should offer a chance to the fast finishers and even though every stage in the Tour de Suisse is undulating with short, sharp climbs, it seems that the organizers have avoided their usual temptation to include a small challenge close to the finish. The pure sprinters definitely have an incentive to do the Swiss race in 2014 and the first of those comes on the fourth day.

 

The stage brings the riders over 160.4km from the previous day's finish in Heiden to Ossingen and the first part consists of an entirely flat run along Bodensee until they reach the city of Kreuzlingen. Leaving the lake, the peloton faces slightly more undulating terrain but there are no major difficulties before the riders reach the finish in Ossingen for the first time after 104.9km of racing.

 

The final part of the stage consists of two laps of a 28km finishing circuit and it is a slightly rolling affair. The terrain is certainly not flat but there are no major difficulties apart from the category 4 climb Benken (1.5km, 5.5%). The top comes 15.2km from the finish and they are the easiest part of the circuit, being mainly flat. The final 3km are very slightly uphill but it should make very little difference in the sprint. The final part of the stage consists of a run along a long, straight road but with 600m to go, there is a right-hand turn. It is followed by a sweeping left-hand bend that leads onto the 500m finishing straight.

 

 

 

The weather

Summer has returned to Switzerland and the riders could not have wished better conditions for their fourth day of racing. It will be a day of beautiful sunshine but it won’t be overly hot, with a maximum temperature of 22 degrees making it a perfect day for a bike race.

 

It will be slightly less windy than today but there will be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction. This means that the riders will have a crosswind as they roll along the Bodensee before turning into a tailwind. The final section to Ossingen will offer a cross-headwind. On the finishing circuit, there will first be a headwind, then a crosswind and a tailwind up the climb. After the top, the riders gradually turn into a headwind and for the final three kilometres they will have the wind completely against them.

 

The favourites

The Tour de Suisse has always offered the sprinters more opportunities than the Criterium du Dauphiné and so the fast finishers have often finished their preparations for the Tour de France in Switzerland or in the Ster ZLM Toer which starts on Wednesday with both André Greipel and Marcel Kittel on the start list. However, the Tour de Suisse has never been a sprinter’s paradise as the organizers usually end their flat stages with a small finishing circuit that includes a few nasty climbs. Very often the stage has not had any real opportunities for the pure sprinters but this year things are different.

 

Stages 4 and 5 are some of the easiest stages in recent Tour de Suisse history and even though they both end on finishing circuits, the organizers have avoided the temptation to make them too difficult. Tomorrow the riders will have to tackle a small climb on both laps but it is a very easy affair that should have no major impact on the final outcome.

 

With two sprint opportunities in this year’s race, the list of sprinters is also a bit longer than usual and it has especially been boosted by the presence of Mark Cavendish. The Brit hasn’t done the Giro this year and so needs to do some proper climbs as he builds for the Tour de France, prompting him to head to Switzerland instead of doing the Ster ZLM Toer.

 

The more sprinters also mean that it is very hard to imagine that the next two stages won’t be decided in a bunch sprint. For Omega Pharma-Quick Step, this is the big dress rehearsal for the Tour de France and they have lined up most of the sprint train in the Swiss race. Only Alessandro Petacchi is not here as the Italian is recovering from the Giro d’Italia, and they cannot allow themselves to let this opportunity slip away.

 

The team is definitely not built to defend Tony Martin’s leader’s jersey but for tomorrow’s stage they are extremely strong. They will make sure that the early break is not too strong and they will do the majority of the pace-setting. Expect Martin Velits to be on the front for most of the stage to make sure that things come back together for a bunch sprint.

 

They may get a bit of help from Katusha and Giant-Shimano who are both here with teams mostly focused on the sprints and those three teams are definitely strong enough to ensure a bunch sprint. As everybody knows this, we should not see a very great fight to be part of the early break and a small group will probably take off shortly after the start.

 

Teams like Giant-Shimano, Cannondale and Katusha could try to ride fast up the climb to make things hard for Cavendish but the Brit won’t fall off the pace. In today’s stage, he seems to be climbing pretty well at the moment – he should as we are getting close to the Tour de France – and he probably won’t feel the effect too much in the sprint.

 

Of course Cavendish goes into the stage as the man to beat and he is our favourite to come away with the win. However, it could turn out to be a pretty close battle as the Brit has not been sprinting very well this season. In the Tour of Turkey, he was beaten convincingly by Elia Viviani in two consecutive sprints and even though he won two stages of the Tour of California, John Degenkolb was clearly faster on those two days.

 

If one adds the fact that he was beaten in the Volta ao Algarve and Tirreno-Adriatico in the early season and did a very poor sprint in Milan-Sanremo, it becomes apparent that he is no longer the sprinter he once was. Nonetheless, he has taken lots of victories year and it has mainly been because of a very strong team.

 

In the early season, the new Omega Pharma-Quick Step train didn’t work very well but since Tirreno-Adriatico they have been really strong. The performance in the Tour of Turkey was especially impressive and since then they will only have become stronger.

 

In this race, they don’t have Petacchi at their disposal but the train Martin-Terpstra- Boonen-Trentin-Steegmans-Renshaw-Cavendish is really a formidable one.  Renshaw and Cavendish are working excellently together and in the Tour of Belgium, Steegmans proved that he is still an excellent lead-out man. We expect the team to dominate the finale and deliver Cavendish perfectly on the front. A headwind sprint is always difficult to time but if they make things right, Cavendish should win the stage.

 

His biggest rival could be John Degenkolb. Last year he sprinted terrible for most of the season but found back his best legs towards the end of the season. This year he started his season really strongly and has won both a stage in the Paris-Nice and the Gent-Wevelgem in bunch sprints against some pretty fast sprinters.

 

In the Hour of California, he was actually faster than Cavendish but paid the price for what has always been his weakness. Way too often he loses the wheel of his lead-out man and has to start his sprint from too far back. To win against Cavendish, he needs to avoid making that mistake.

 

However, he has a very strong team at his side in this race. Koen De Kort is a fantastic lead-out man and Ramon Sinkeldam and Luka Mezgec have the speed to keep him up there in the finale. This power sprint into a headwind should suit him well and if Giant can put him into position, it would be no surprise to see him beat Cavendish.

 

Sacha Modolo got his season off to a great start as he won several races in the first two months of the year. In the Driedaagse van de Panne which has one of the most competitive sprint line-ups of the year, he won another two stages but after he crashed out of Paris-Roubaix he has been suffering from a few health issues.

 

Now he seems to be back at full strength and he even finished in the main group in the very mountainous second stage. Right from the beginning of the season, the cooperation with lead-out man Maximiliano Richeze has been perfect and in this race he also has Andrea Palini to support him. In the Volta ao Algarve, he beat Cavendish in a direct battle and if Richeze can drop him off on the front he could take another win in tomorrow’s stage.

 

UPDATE: Modolo crashed twice in today's stage but even though he didn't suffer any major injuries, it may have an impact on his chances. The team could decide to do the sprint for Richeze instead.

 

Bryan Coquard is one of the fastest sprinters in the peloton but very often he misses out due to poor positioning. The team signed Jimmy Engoulvent to lead him out and things have improved slightly but way too often he finishes outside the top 10 without having got the chance to sprint. He is gearing up for his Tour de France debut but in this high-level field, it will be hard for him to position himself properly. If he does, however, he is one of the select few with the speed to win.

 

Alexander Kristoff is targeting another stage win in the Tour de Suisse but this stage may be a bit too easy for him. Kristoff is at his best at the end of a long, hard race of attrition and in a pure bunch sprint he is usually not fast enough to beat the best. A headwind sprint suits him well though and he has one of the strongest teams to support him. Alexander Porsev and Marco Haller should be able to bring him into position and if he times things right he can add another stage win to his growing palmares.

 

Matthew Goss has had a very difficult time and he is still not back at his best level. However, the Australian has shown flashes of his former self on a few occasions and in the Tour of California, he appeared to be in great condition. In this race, he will try to convince his team management to select him for the Tour but he doesn’t have an awful lot of support. Very often he is in a poor position and without a lead-out train, it will be hard for him to win. On paper, however, he is one of the fastest riders in the race.

 

Like Kristoff, Peter Sagan is no pure sprinter and he is usually not fast enough to win the pure bunch sprints. Due to his excellent positioning skills, he rarely finishes outside the top 5 but winning is a completely different affair. This year his sprinting has not been at its usual level and even though he is obviously in great condition, it will be hard for him to win. In a headwind sprint, however, it is all about timing and in that area, the Slovakian is very strong.

 

Finally, we will pick our jokers. Movistar are not known for their sprinters but in this race they have two fast finishers in their line-up. While Jose Joaquin Rojas is not fast enough to win this kind of sprint, Juan Jose Lobato has a much better chance. The Spaniard has been sprinting very well all year and even finished fourth in Milan-Sanremo. He has had a long break from competition and so his condition is a bit uncertain. It will be hard for him to win but a podium spot should be within his reach.

 

Danny Van Poppel is in excellent condition at the moment. Two weeks ago he won the prologue in the Tour de Luxembourg and in the Tour of California he climbed amazingly well. At the same time, he has improved his sprinting skills a lot and he even finished third in the Scheldeprijs that is known as the sprint world championships. He is not fast enough to win this kind of sprint and will have limited support but he could end up close to the podium.

 

BMC don’t have a real sprinter in this race and this should give young Silvan Dillier a chance to shine. The Swiss is no pure sprinter and doesn’t have an awful lot of experience but he has a solid kick at the end. He is definitely not fast enough to win this kind of sprint but he will be eager to show himself in his home country. If things go well for him, he could finish in the top 5.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Other winner candidates: John Degenkolb, Sacha Modolo

Outsiders: Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff, Matthew Goss, Peter Sagan

Jokers: Juan Jose Lobato, Danny Van Poppel, Silvan Dillier