Mark Cavendish drew the first blood among the sprinters in this year’s Tour de Suisse but his rivals will get an immediate chance to take revenge in what should be the final opportunity for the pure sprinters in the 9-day race. The fifth stage is almost completely flat and there is now doubt that Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Cavendish will do their utmost to make it two in  arrow in what should be a straightforward affair for the sprinters.

 

The course

The sprinters had their first chance in stage 4 and they will get an immediate chance for a rematch one day later when the riders continue their westerly journey in the northern part of the country, gradually approaching the Alps. The stage brings them from yesterday's finish in Ossingen to Büren a. A. and has the easiest finish of the entire race.

 

The first 40km are almost completely flat and lead to the hardest part of the course which contains three small categorized climbs. The category 4 Zurzibergstrasse (2.1km, 6.7%), category 3 Bözbergstrasse (3.1km, 6.6%) and category 3 Staffelegg (3.4km, 4.9%) come in quick succession, with the latter summiting at the 80km mark, and they offer the main challenges of the day. From there, the terrain is flat until the riders cross the line for the first time after 153.8km of racing.

 

The final part of the stage consists of a 29.8km finishing circuit and it is slightly more undulating than the main part of the stage. However, the main difficulty is the category 4 climb Biezwilerstrasse (1.4km, 5.9%) which comes 24.7km from the finish but it should be no real challenge for the sprinters. After the top, there are a few small climbs before the road becomes flat near the finish.

 

Unlike today, the finale is pretty technical. The riders follow a long, straight road for several kilometres untl they enter the finishing city. The easy nature comes to ab abrupt end just 300m from the line when the riders do a right- and left-hand turn in quick succession before arriving at the short 150m finishing straight. Furthermore, the final 200m are slightly uphill which will make things even more complicated.

 

 

 

The weather

The last two days have offered perfect conditions for a bike race but tomorrow’s stage should be slightly less pleasant. Luckily, it will probably stay dry all day but it should be cloudy and there will be no chance for the riders to work on their tan. The temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of 21 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a direct tailwind all day which should make the racing a lot faster than today’s. On the finishing circuit, the riders will first have a tailwind before turning into a headwind for the second half. The wind will be completely against the riders inside the final 3km, again making timing very important in the sprint.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage panned out just as expected and we can expect more of the same tomorrow. As we already said yesterday, the organizers have avoided their usual temptation to make the finishing circuits hilly and difficult, and like today there will just be a single, very easy climb in the finale. With two consecutive obvious sprint stages, the race offers more opportunities for the pure sprinters than usual and this is reflected in the very strong line-up of fast finishers.

 

The number of sprinters means that it is almost completely impossible to imagine that the stage won’t be decided in a sprint. Teams like Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Katusha and Giant-Shimano are here mostly for the sprints and they cannot allow themselves to let this opportunity slip away. For the strongest of the fast finishers, there may be another chance on Thursday but for many of them, the final four days will be all about suffering and preparing for the Tour de France.

 

Hence, we can expect the race to pan out much like today. As everybody expects a bunch sprint, there is no real incentive to attack and so a small break mainly consisting of riders from the smaller teams is likely to escape in the early part. Omega Pharma-Quick Step will take control with Martin Velits and Niki Terostra and like today they will probably not allow them a big gap. The tailwind can make things a bit tricky and this makes it even more important to make sure that the gap doesn’t get too big.

 

As the day goes on, they can expect to get some assistance from Katusha and Giant-Shimano. Both teams may also have their eyes on stage 6 but they cannot feel assured that their sprinters will make it over the climbs in that stage. Hence, they need to go all in to set up a bunch sprint and with three teams completely dedicated to the cause, the stage is destined to end in a bunch kick.

 

However, tomorrow’s sprint will be a lot more complicated than today’s. Due to the headwind, it was all about timing in stage 4 and tomorrow the strong headwind will again have a massive impact on the outcome of the sprint. What will be even more important, however, are the corners close to the finish. With such a short finishing straight, positioning will be crucial and it is very hard to imagine that the winner won’t be in the top 3 through the final turn.

 

This kind of sprint suits sprinters with three characteristics. As positioning is crucial, team support will be even more important than usual and if a team is strong enough to string things out in the finale, their sprinter will have a massive advantage. With a headwind, however, it is very hard to dominate a finale as it is easy to come from behind and the sprint could again end up as a pretty confusing affair.

 

The second important attribute is acceleration. With short a short finishing straight, it is more about the ability to get back up to speed than actual top speed and this is definitely not a sprint for the high-speed power sprinters. Finally, technical skills are of crucial importance as a rider that can go through those final turns faster than his rivals will have a massive advantage.

 

Today Cavendish proved that he is s a lot faster than most of his rivals as he was clearly in a class of his own compared to the likes of Sacha Modolo and Peter Sagan. At the same time, he proved that he is also a very wise sprinter as he knew how to time his acceleration into the headwind and he didn’t let the early sprints by Modolo and Sagan destroy his plans.

 

The performance of the lead-out train must be of more concern. In the finale, Mark Renshaw and Cavendish lost the wheels of Tom Boonen and Gert Steegmans and only a bit of luck and good work by the Australian brought them back to the front. At the same time, Giant-Shimano proved to be stronger in the end, and it was the Dutch team that strung things out inside the final kilometre.

 

Unfortunately, this is just the most recent example of a failed lead-out by the team and with another headwind sprint, it won’t be any easier tomorrow. On paper, they have the most firepower in their team but in the WorldTour sprints they have mostly come up short.

 

However, Cavendish has often proved that he is able to handle the situation by himself and Renshaw is a formidable lead-out man that can position his sprinter even if the rest of the team fails. The sprint suits Cavendish well as he has that famous kick which should allow him to get back up to speed very quickly. Due to his aerodynamic sprinting style, he has a massive advantage in a headwind sprint which was evident in today’s finale. The combination of aerodynamics, Renshaw and the short finishing straight makes Cavendish our favourite but he is definitely not such a clear number one as many suggest.

 

Like yesterday, we again see John Degenkolb as his biggest rival. Today’s sprint revealed two aspects that we had already pointed out in yesterday’s preview. First of all Giant-Shimano did a fantastic lead-out and completely dominated the finale. Koen De Kort did everything right inside the final kilometre but as we had also pointed out, John Degenkolb very often loses the wheel of his final lead-out man and today it happened again.

 

Degenkolb had gone down in the neutral zone but it didn’t hamper him too much and his team was still fully committed to their fast German. We don’t expect his injuries to influence him too much. On paper, the sprint doesn’t suit a power sprinter like Degenkolb too well but with the strongest team, he could very well be the rider who enters the final turn in first position. In the Tour of California, he was faster than Cavendish and so he definitely has the speed to finish it off. If Giant-Shimano again rule in the finale, tomorrow could be Degenkolb’s day.

 

Usually, Peter Sagan has no chance in the real bunch sprints but due to his great positioning skills he is always in the top 5. That was also the case in today’s stage but he was never close to the victory. If he should ever beat Cavendish in a real bunch sprint, tomorrow’s stage may be one of his best options. Even though he hasn’t the best lead-out at his disposal, he always manages to position himself perfectly. At the same time, he has a better acceleration than most and he is technically the strongest rider. He has all the skills to win tomorrow’s sprint. If he enters the final turn ahead of Cavendish and Degenkolb, this could be his day to shine even though he usually doesn’t have the top speed to win.

 

Another rider who excels in this kind of technical finishes is Sacha Modolo. Tomorrow’s stage is pretty similar to the one on the final day of the Driedaagse van de Panne which is also all about positioning for the final turn. This year Modolo won that particular sprint, making use of his fast acceleration and good positioning skills. Today he was clearly not hampered by yesterday’s crash and with the support of an excellent lead-out man like Maximiliano Richeze, he should be able to enter the final turn in one of the first positions. If that happens, he has the speed to win.

 

Another rider who is very strong at positioning is Alexander Kristoff and it is no wonder that he has won that famous De Panne sprint twice in a row. Like Sagan, he doesn’t have the speed to win the pure bunch sprints but due to his positioning he is always up there. With the support of Marco Haller and Alexander Porsev, he has one of the best lead-out trains in this race and if they can position Kristoff well, the Norwegian could take a surprise win.

 

Yesterday we had pointed to Juan Jose Lobato as a joker and he proved himself worthy of our praise by taking second in a very high-level sprint field. He was very poorly positioned but was clearly the fastest in the final dash to the line. Of course he benefited from the fact that he was not in the wind but he was a lot faster than a lot of riders that were also well-protected. Movistar is not a sprint team and so he will have to handle the finale on his own. This is a clear disadvantage in tomorrow’s sprint and there is a big risk that he will again be poorly positioned. If he overcomes those troubles, however, he definitely has a shot at the stage win.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Davide Appollonio did well in today’s sprint to finish in the top 10 and the Italian seems to be in good condition after finishing outside the time limit in the Giro. He is usually very good at positioning himself, has a faster acceleration and excels on uphill finishing stretches. With Lloyd Mondory and Sebastien Turgot, he has a decent support crew. He is unlikely to win the stage but could finish close to the front.

 

This year Jacopo Guarnieri has mostly been working as a lead-out man for Andrea Guardini but in this race he is the main sprinter. With Valentin Iglinskiy and Ruslan Tleubayev at his side, he has a solid team to support him and he knows how to find his way through a tricky finale. Today Astana showed their commitment to their sprinter and if they can time things a bit better, Guarnieri could finish in the top 5.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Other winner candidates:  John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan

Outsiders: Sacha Modolo, Alexander Kristoff, Juan Jose Lobato

Jokers: Davide Appollonio, Jacopo Guarnieri