There are no more opportunities for the pure sprinters in this year’s Tour de Suisse but the strongest of the fast finishers have one last chance to go for glory. Tomorrow’s hilly sixth stage includes two late climbs that only the best of them can survive but it will be hard to keep things together for a sprint in what could be a really aggressive race.

 

The course

The riders have now reached the western part of the country where the terrain is significantly harder and even though the sixth stage will not enter the high mountains, it should be a lot more difficult than the previous ones. It brings the riders over 192.8km from yesterday's finish in Büren to Delemont and offers some serious climbing along the way.

 

The first 42km are entirely flat but are only a warm-up for the hostilities. First up is the category 1 Grand Chaumont (15km, 4.4%) and it leads almost directly to the category2 Col des Pontins (6.9km, 5.2%). Then there's another small uncategorized ascent but then the 65.9km mostly consist of a long, gradual descent to the finish in Delemont.

 

As is typical for the Tour de Suisse, the stage ends with a finishing circuit and this time it is significantly harder than it has been the last few days. The 42.5km have a flat start but then it is up or down for the most of the remaining part. The first challenge is the category 2 Col des Rangiers (7.7km, 5.0%) whose descent leads to the bottom of the category 3 climb Le Rond-Pre (5.7km, 2.9%). The final 11.7km consist of a fast non-technical descent and 5 flat kilometres to the finish in Delemont.

 

Today’s finale was extremely tricky and technical and so many riders will be pleased to know that things will be a lot easier tomorrow. The road bends slightly to the right 2km from the line but from there, only a few very light bends will slow down the riders’ progress. The road is slightly rising from the 2km to go banner until 750m remain. Then there’s a fast descent that leads to the final 500m which are again slightly uphill.

 

 

 

The weather

The Tour de Suisse has often had to deal with a lot of rain but this year the riders have mostly had pleasant conditions. Tomorrow will be another great day for a bike race as there will be lots of sunshine. The temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of 23 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will first have a tailwind before turning into the first hilly section where they will mostly have a headwind. Then it’s a cross- or headwind all the way to the first passage of the line. On the finishing circuit, the riders will have a cross-headwind for the first climb and its descent and s crosswind for the second climb and its decent. There will be a tailwind for the final flat kilometres that will gradually turn into a cross-tailwind.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage was very fast due to the strong tailwind and even though the riders will mostly have a headwind, tomorrow’s stage could be another extremely fast affair. For the riders that are not either climbers or TT specialists, this is the final opportunity to win a stage and this is the day that most of the peloton have been looking forward to. Stages 4 and 5 were sure bunch sprints but tomorrow’s terrain is a lot harder, making it difficult for the sprint teams to control the proceedings.

 

This means that a breakaway has a good chance of making it and most teams will go into the stage with the plan to attack. This means that the start to the stage will be extremely fast. In the last two stages the early breaks have gone clear straight from the gun as everybody knew that they had no chance to succeed but tomorrow it will take a lot longer.

 

The first part is flat and should be pretty easy to control for Omega Pharma-Quick Step that want to avoid any dangerous rider making it into the break, and Cannondale and Sky that want to make sure that the break is not too strong or too numerous. It is very likely that we will get to the first climb before the break takes off and this will make things very difficult.

 

If that happens, it will be a lot harder to control the break and luck will play no role in determining which riders make it into the break. In such circumstances, the good climbers that are not going for GC simply ride away from the bunch and we are likely to see a pretty strong breakaway.

 

Peter Sagan may already have won a stage but there is no doubt that he will be going for another one. In the last three editions of this race, he has won at least two stages and he would love to keep that string running. His team even helped bring back the break in today’s stage and as tomorrow is his final chance, Cannondale will go all out in a quest to set up a sprint finish.

 

They can expect to get a lot of help from Sky. This stage is tailor-made for Ben Swift who is a very strong climber and today Sky sports director Dan Frost made it clear that the British team will go all out for their British sprinter. Swift even took it easy in today’s stage to be ready for tomorrow and so we can expect Sky to play a prominent role.

 

If Orica-GreenEDGE miss the early break, they may come to the fore as well and it is certainly not impossible that Katusha or Giant-Shimano will lend a hand as well as both Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb may have a chance. Hence, there are a lot of teams who set out with the mission of setting up a sprint and so it will be a fierce pursuit.

 

Cannondale have certainly not been impressive in this race. Moreno Moser is far from his best and due to the loss of Daniele Ratto, they are down to just 7 riders. Christiano Salerno and especially young climbing sensation Davide Formolo are riding really well but those two riders cannot set up a sprint finish on their own. With Sky also being part of the action, however, the balance may tip towards the sprinters.

 

Even if they manage to bring things together, they can expect a lot of attacks on the final two climbs and a late break definitely also has a chance of making it to the finish, especially as there will be a tailwind in the end. At the same time, however, we can expect Sky, Cannondale and maybe even Movistar try to ride hard on the climbs to get rid of the pure sprinters. If Formolo goes full gas on the category 2 climb, only the strongest will be able to keep up and it will be very difficult to escape.

 

Even if early and late breaks can definitely make it to the finish, we will put our money on another sprint finish. The combination of Cannondale and Sky have some decent firepower and they may even get some help from teams that miss the early break. This tips the balance in favour of the fast finishers.

 

It is a big question which sprinters will be able to survive the final two climbs. None of them are very steep but especially the first one is pretty long. While many sprinters can cope with a 5% gradient for a short while, it will be pretty hard for them to keep up with the best for almost 8km. On the other hand, the mellow gradients mean that some teams need to take the initiative to make things hard. Otherwise, a lot of sprinters can survive these climbs.

 

The big favourite obviously has to be Peter Sagan. Among the fast finishers, he is in a class of his own when it comes to climbing and even though he will never be a rider for the big mountains, he is probably stronger than any other rider in this kind of terrain. There is no chance that he will get dropped by the peloton and if it comes down to a sprint finish, he will definitely be there. Last year he won a real mountain stage where he mixed it up with the GC riders before taking an easy sprint win and this year nothing suggests that he is not climbing at the same level.

 

He appeared to be at ease when he won the uphill sprint on stage 3 and he seems to have put a difficult spring season behind him. He has not been sprinting at his former level but in this kind of finale that may not be necessary.

 

However, Sagan could be challenged in this kind of stage. While he is fast, there are definitely faster sprinters in this race. This was evidenced in today’s stage when he was easily beaten by Sacha Modolo and he needs to get rid of riders like Modolo, Degenkolb and Kristoff to go into the sprint as the firm favourite. If those faster riders are still there at the end, there is a big risk that Sagan will come up short.

 

To avoid that scenario, Formolo will be a key rider as he should be able to put most of the sprinters into difficulty on the climb. Furthermore, Sagan is likely to be a lot fresher at the finish while his rivals will mostly feel the climbing in their legs. We expect that only Rojas and Swift will be the only real sprinters at the finish and as Sagan is faster than those two, he is our favourite.

 

Ben Swift has made this stage his big target. The Brit may not be able to attack on the climbs like Sagan but he can keep up with the best for a very long time. Earlier this year he won a very hard stage of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco after riding with the GC riders for a long time and he even finished 25th on the Gavia-Stelvio stage in the Giro.

 

Swift should easily survive these climbs and so he should be one of the fastest riders at the end. In the early part of the Giro, he was sprinting better than ever but he later seemed to lose his top speed. In stage 2 of this race, he sprinted for fourth against Sagan and was easily beaten by the Sloavkian. If he can find back the sprinting legs he had a few weeks ago, however, he definitely has a chance to beat Sagan in a head-to-head battle.

 

Sacha Modolo won today’s stage but the Lampre-Merida rider is much more than a pure sprinter. In fact, he is a pretty strong climber who can survive more than most fast finishers. He was one of the select few sprinters to finish in the peloton on the very mountainous stage 2 and even though he rejoined the front just 5km from the line, it was impressive feat by him to be there.

 

Modolo has had a long break from competition after a crash in Paris-Roubaix slowed him down but he is clearly in great condition as he ramps up for his debut at the Tour de France. Today he proved that he is faster than Sagan in a sprint and if he is there at the end, he will be hard to beat. There is definitely no guarantee that he will survive the climbing but he definitely has a chance to do so.

 

The same can be said for Alexander Kristoff. The Norwegian is also a classics specialist and compared to most sprinters he climbs pretty well. He was not too far off the pace in stage 2 and tomorrow’s climbing should be a bit easier for the strong Norwegian. While it is hard for him to win the pure bunch sprints, he is usually one of the very best when the sprint comes at the end of a long, hard day – just recall how he won Milan-Sanremo in impressive fashion. If he makes it over the climbs, he will be hard to beat.

 

Another fast rider that could survive the climbs is John Degenkolb. The German has just returned from a high-altitude training camp where he has worked a lot on his climbing. In Paris-Nice, he climbed excellently well and if he is already back at that level, he could make it to the finish. Today’s sprint didn’t suit him very well but tomorrow’s power sprint is a lot better for him. Like Kristoff, he is very strong in a sprint at the end of a hard day and if he is there at the finish, he will be our winner pick.

 

If a break makes it, we will put our money on Michael Albasini. Orica-GreenEDGE have definitely marked this stage out and we can expect them to play a very aggressive role. Their key rider is Albasini who is perfectly suited to this kind of stage. As he is pretty fast, he could wait for the final sprint but he knows that he has no chance to beat Sagan in a flat sprint. Hence, he will probably try to go on the attack, either early or late in the stage. By finishing second in stage 3, he has proved that he is in great condition and no one is better at finishing off a break in a successful manner. The stage has Albasini written all over it and there is a good chance that he will be in the break.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Alexandr Kolobnev has been riding really well in this race but today he lost a bit of time. That was probably a deliberate move to get more freedom in today’s stage which suits him well. The former Worlds runner-up excels in this kind of terrain and he has a fast sprint to finish it off. If he is in the break, he will be a very good stage winner pick.

 

Another good breakaway pick is Enrico Gasparotto. The Astana rider is coming out of the Giro in good condition and this stage suits him really well. He excels in this terrain and is very fast in a sprint. As he is only one minute down on GC, he may not get a lot of freedom but he could be the rider to make an attack in the finale when most teams are on their limit.

 

Matti Breschel is in great condition after winning the Tour de Luxembourg. He could try his hand in a sprint but is not fast enough to beat Sagan. It may be better for him to join a break where he would be one of the fastest. The climbing may be a bit too tough for him but in the past he has handled harder stages really well.

 

Heinrich Haussler was one of the only sprinters to make it to the finish in stage 2 and he is usually pretty strong in this terrain. He rarely mixes it up with the best in the sprint finishes as he is often in a poor position but in a small group he has a chance. Recently, he won a bunch sprint in the Bayern Rundfahrt and he may have the speed to cause a surprise.

 

Juan Jose Lobato proved how fast he is in stage 4 when he finished second behind Sagan and he also climbs pretty well. He has won the Circuito del Getxo in the past and that race finishes on a pretty hard climb. He hopes to get selected for the Tour de France and seems to be in good condition. If he is there at the finish, he definitely has a chance.

 

The same can be said for Danny Van Poppel. In the Tour of California, the youngster climbed excellently and surprised a lot by making it into the group that sprinted for the win in stage 7. This race is obviously at a higher level but if he has the same kind of legs he had in California, he has a chance to make it. It will be hard to beat Sagan but a top 3 finish could be within his reach.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: Ben Swift, Sacha Modolo

Outsiders: Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Michael Albasini, Bryan Coquard, Jose Joaquin Rojas

Jokers: Alexandr Kolobnev, Enrico Gasparotto, Matti Breschel, Heinrich Haussler, Juan Jose Lobato, Danny Van Poppel