Apart from the opening time trial, the first 6 stages have been mostly about survival for the GC riders but now it is time for them to show their cards for real. As usual, the time trial plays a key role in determining the overall winner of the Tour de Suisse and even though this year’s race against the clock is a bit shorter than usual, it could turn out to be the most important stage of the entire race.

 

The course

The time trial has often been held on the final day but as it was the case in 2012, this year's race against the clock will be held already on the seventh day. The climbers will be happy to get all the time trialing out of the way already before they have had the first summit finish, allowing them to head into the mountains knowing how much time they need to gain. Furthermore, they will be pleased to know that this year's 24.5km is shorter than usual and true to tradition, the course is a pretty undulating affair.

 

The stage is held on a 24.5km circuit on the hilly southern outskirts of Worb. The first 7km are the easiest as they are predominantly flat but from there, it is up or down all the way to the finish. First up is a 3.7km climb whose average gradient of 5.4% will test the climbing skills and the first time check will be taken at the top. Then it's a short, non-technical descent and a rolling section before the riders hit the second climb.

 

The 3.8km ascent only has an average gradient of 2.6% and is more of a gradual uphill section than a real climb. The second time check will be taken just before the top. The final 6km consist of a fast, non-technical dowhill section and 1.5km of relatively flat roads.

 

 

 

The weather

The great weather conditions that have dominated this year’s Tour de Suisse seems to continue for the rest of the race and tomorrow’s time trial should again take place under nice circumstances. In the morning there will be a bit of sunshine but as the day goes on, it will become cloudier and it is unlikely that the later starters will see the sun. It won’t be very hot as the temperature will reach a maximum of 19 degrees.

 

At around noon there will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction but it will gradually turn to a northerly direction while the wind will also abate a bit. For most of the riders, it will be a northerly wind which means that the will have a tailwind in the first part until the first time check and then a mix of a crosswind and a headwind for the second part of the course.

 

Both the direction and the speed of the wind will change a bit for the early and late starters but as it is an out-and-back course, it is very difficult to saw who will benefit from the changing conditions. It depends on where the roads are exposed and where the riders can find some shelter. In principle, however, the abating wind should be in favour of the GC riders who start towards the end of the stage.

 

The favourites

The Tour de Suisse is usually characterized by the fact that it has hard stages in both ends of the race, meaning that it will be important to be strong right all the way through the 9-day race. The 2014 edition is very unusual in the sense that all the decisive stages are gathered on the final three days of the race and until now it has been all about survival for the GC riders.

 

Switzerland is a very mountainous country but its climbs are also characterized by the fact that they are usually not very steep. As the race always includes a long time trial, TT skills have always been extremely important in the Swiss race and this year it will be no different. The finishing climb on the final day is not overly tough and the climb to Verbier in Saturday’s stage is pretty short, meaning that the TT will be crucial.

 

Sometimes the TT is a real mountain time trial and in other years it is held on a rolling course but it is never flat. Last year it was a really hard one for the climbers as it went up the Flumserberg after a short flat stretch but this year it is a more traditional one where the specialists can come into play. With two climbs on the course, however, it should also suit the GC riders pretty well and we will probably see a mix of TT riders and overall contenders at the top of the standings in the end.

 

The time trial shapes up to be a really exciting one. Unfortunately, Bradley Wiggins has abandoned the race, meaning that we won’t get the highly anticipated clash of the titans between the Brit, Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin, but the number of TT specialists in still the field is impressive and this is definitely one of the strongest line-ups for a long TT all year.

 

After his impressive showing in the opening time trial, it is very hard to look beyond Tony Martin as the major favourite. It has been a strange year for the world champion as he hasn’t been his usual dominant self in the TTs and in fact he had only taken two time trial wins when he lined up for the opening stage of the Tour de Suisse. Furthermore, he had been beaten on several occasions where he was the major favourite and things definitely haven’t gone according to plan in his preferred discipline.

 

On the other hand, he has been climbing a lot better than he has done for quite a while. In the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he was extremely impressive and in this race he has seemed to be at ease on the ascents. When the GC contenders attacked each other on the Brünigpass last Sunday, he was always up there and made it into the 9-rider group that briefly escaped.

 

His strong climbing means that he is now a potential overall winner of this race. Of course he will lose time in the two mountaintop finishes but it would be no major surprise if he can limit his losses sufficiently to take a big GC win. For this to happen, he needs to maximize his gains in tomorrow’s TT and as none of the GC riders are real specialists, he could really open up some significant gaps.

 

On paper, a flat out-and-back course would be better for the German but due to his excellent climbing, he has actually performed better on the rolling routes in 2014. He won the Vuelta al Pais Vasco TT on a very difficult course and only a stupid mistake on the descent prevented him from winning the tough Tour de Romandie TT as well. Tomorrow’s course suits him really well and it is very hard to go faster up those mellow gradients than the time trial world champion. Martin heads into this time trial as the rider to beat and we will be pretty surprised if anyone manages to do so.

 

On paper, his biggest rival should be Fabian Cancellara but we will put Tom Dumoulin above the Swiss on our list. Dumoulin has had a very consistent progress in his preferred discipline and this year he has clearly taken a massive step up. When everybody is at 100%, he is not yet at the level of Martin, Wiggins, Cancellara and Adriano Malori but he is definitely not far off the mark.

 

In Tirreno-Adriatico, he finished 5th behind those five riders and he went on to win in the Criterium International just a few days later. In the Tour of Belgium, he finished second behind Martin but was faster than the world champion in the second half and at the beginning of this race, he was again second behind the world champion in the short opening TT.

 

Dumoulin is gearing up for the Tour de France and is clearly in very good condition. He is still in second overall and tomorrow’s course suits him perfectly. As an Ardennes contender who almost won the Eneco Tour, he excels on the kind of climbs that are on offer in Worb and it would have been hard for the organizers to put together a route that would be better adapted to his skills. He is starting to get a bit frustrated by his many runner-up spots but at the same time he is pleased to constantly get closer to Martin. Tomorrow it could be another second place but it will also offer him another chance to prove that the gap is narrowing.

 

For Fabian Cancellara, the time trial is the big goal in his home race and he has checked out the course prior to the race to make sure that he knows what to expect. Unfortunately, he crashed during that recon and the injuries forced him to miss a couple of training days. Hence, he hasn’t lined up at the race in the condition that he had hoped for and it has been evident that he is very far from his best level.

 

Going into the race, however, he made it clear that he was targeting results in this race and he wouldn’t say so if he wasn’t in a decent condition. Later this summer he will return to the Tour de France where he has set his sights on the Paris-Roubaix stage, meaning that he needs to be at 100% in just a few weeks. He may have used these last few days as training and it could be dangerous to put too much emphasis on the results. We doubt that his condition is good enough to beat Martin but he is usually pretty strong on this kind of course. We will be pretty surprised if the local hero doesn’t end up on the podium.

 

Rohan Dennis has been one of the most consistent TT riders this season. With second places in the Criterium International, Circuit Cycliste Sarthe, Tour of California and the Tour de Romandie prologue, he has an impressive number of runner-up spots but that elusive victory is still missing. Clearly, it is frustrating for the young Australian but it must be reassuring to see that he is up there with the very best at this early stage of his career.

 

After his great showing in the Tour of California, he was marked out as a potential winner of this race and when he finished third in the opening TT, he seemed to be in splendid condition. Surprisingly, he has lost time these last few days and he doesn’t appear to be at 100%. There has been no official explanation for his travails but he may be suffering from some kind of illness. If that is the case, he won’t be in the mix tomorrow but if he is back at his best, he will be a real threat. The rolling course suits his versatile skills really well and even though it will be hard to win, a podium spot is definitely within his reach.

 

Originally, Ion Izagirre was not set to do the Tour de France but after his great start to the season he has now been included on the Movistar long list. In this race he is riding really well and barring disaster, he should end in the top 10 overall. Among the GC contenders, he is one of the best time triallists and even though he rarely wins, he is always up there. He is not a real specialist suited to the flat courses but on rolling routes he is one of the very best. His performances in Pais Vasco, Romandie and the opening TT in this race reflect this fact and this course suits him really well. As he is obviously in great condition, he could ride himself into the top 3 in the overall standings in today’s stage.

 

Bauke Mollema is no real TT specialist but he has improved a lot in the discipline over the last few years. On the really flat courses, he still suffers but on hilly routes he is very strong. In 2012, he was second in the very difficult Pais Vasco time trial and in this race he did a really good opening TT. In fact he was a lot faster than everybody else on the climb which indicates that he is in excellent condition. He won’t win this stage but he could turn out to be the big winner among the pre-race favourites for the overall win.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Patrick Gretsch has had a very slow start to his first year with Ag2r but during the Giro, he gradually rode himself into condition. This allowed him to make up for the very poor TTs he did earlier this year when he finished 10th in the long Giro TT and in the mountain time trial he was faster than everybody else in the flat first part. In both the 2013 and 2014 editions of the Giro, he did really well in TTs on rolling courses and as he is clearly still riding really well, he should again be good for a top 10 finish.

 

Manuel Boaro is another TT specialist who has not lived up to expectations recently. In this race, however, he seems to be riding really well and in stage 4 he took a massive turn on the front in the hectic sprint finale. He did a decent prologue on a course that didn’t suit him too well and should find tomorrow’s route more to his liking. He is gearing up for his national championships and will use the stage as an important test.

 

Alex Dowsett is an excellent time triallist. Earlier this year he won in Sarthe and last year he beat Wiggins in the long Giro TT. Even though he is no great climber, he won that latter stage despite the course being pretty tough, meaning that he could perform solidly in tomorrow’s stage. He is trying to push his way into the Movistar line-up for the Tour and needs to show his good condition. The course is probably too tough for him to win but he could definitely produce a decent ride.

 

A few years ago, Roman Kreuziger was a great time triallist but over the last few years his skills have clearly deteriorated. Since joining Tinkoff-Saxo, he has improved his climbing skills a lot though and he also seems to have rediscovered some of his previous TT skills. In a flat time trial he would have no chance but on a rolling course he can do really well – just recall his great performance in the Embrun TT in last year’s Tour de France. He seems to be in great condition and could set himself up for an overall win with a solid ride.

 

Mattia Cattaneo and Lawson Craddock are two youngsters that both have a decent time trial. On flat courses they come up short against the biggest specialist but if there are a number of climbs, their allround skills usually put them in the mix. Craddock did really well in California while Cattaneo is coming out of the Giro in good condition, doing a really solid ride in the opening TT. None of them will win the stage but they could both finish in the top 10.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tony Martin

Other winner candidates: Tom Dumoulin, Fabian Cancellara

Outsiders: Rohan Dennis, Ion Izagirre, Bauke Mollema

Jokers: Patrick Gretsch, Manuele Boaro, Alex Dowsett, Roman Kreuziger, Mattia Cattaneo, Lawson Craddock